Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[politicus]

While the Red Green Alliance had a pretty mediocre election given that SPP nearly collapsed and even lost support in their Copenagen strongholds they gained a lot in the province - especially Jutland, and became more of a national party. Building on their good municipal election in 2013.
Found this list over 40%+ gains:

Randers Nord 59%

Esbjerg City 55%

Tønder 53%

Frederikshavn 50%

Odense Øst 48%

Mariager Fjord 46%

Randers Syd 42%

Vejen 42%

Aabenraa 41%

Odense Syd 40%

[Oak Hills]

While the Red Green Alliance had a pretty mediocre election given that SPP nearly collapsed and even lost support in their Copenagen strongholds they gained a lot in the province - especially Jutland, and became more of a national party. Building on their good municipal election in 2013.
Found this list over 40%+ gains:

Randers Nord 59%

Esbjerg City 55%

Tønder 53%

Frederikshavn 50%

Odense Øst 48%

Mariager Fjord 46%

Randers Syd 42%

Vejen 42%

Aabenraa 41%

Odense Syd 40%

Just to be clear, are those in percentage points or percent increases?

[politicus]

While the Red Green Alliance had a pretty mediocre election given that SPP nearly collapsed and even lost support in their Copenagen strongholds they gained a lot in the province - especially Jutland, and became more of a national party. Building on their good municipal election in 2013.
Found this list over 40%+ gains:

Randers Nord 59%

Esbjerg City 55%

Tønder 53%

Frederikshavn 50%

Odense Øst 48%

Mariager Fjord 46%

Randers Syd 42%

Vejen 42%

Aabenraa 41%

Odense Syd 40%

Just to be clear, are those in percentage points or percent increases?

Increases.

[DavidB.]

While the Red Green Alliance had a pretty mediocre election given that SPP nearly collapsed and even lost support in their Copenagen strongholds they gained a lot in the province - especially Jutland, and became more of a national party. Building on their good municipal election in 2013.
Found this list over 40%+ gains:

Randers Nord 59%

Esbjerg City 55%

Tønder 53%

Frederikshavn 50%

Odense Øst 48%

Mariager Fjord 46%

Randers Syd 42%

Vejen 42%

Aabenraa 41%

Odense Syd 40%

Just to be clear, are those in percentage points or percent increases?

Increases.

At face value, these places don't exactly look like your average immigrant areas - more like a combination of urban and exurban quasi-deprived areas (but some of them don't seem to fall in either of these categories) - what do these places have in common, according to you? Did Enhedslisten get more votes from "ethnic Danes" (as opposed to people with an immigrant background) than last time, picking up some disillusioned SPP voters?

[politicus]

While the Red Green Alliance had a pretty mediocre election given that SPP nearly collapsed and even lost support in their Copenagen strongholds they gained a lot in the province - especially Jutland, and became more of a national party. Building on their good municipal election in 2013.
Found this list over 40%+ gains:

Randers Nord 59%

Esbjerg City 55%

Tønder 53%

Frederikshavn 50%

Odense Øst 48%

Mariager Fjord 46%

Randers Syd 42%

Vejen 42%

Aabenraa 41%

Odense Syd 40%

Just to be clear, are those in percentage points or percent increases?

Increases.

At face value, these places don't exactly look like your average immigrant areas - more like a combination of urban and exurban quasi-deprived areas (but some of them don't seem to fall in either of these categories) - what do these places have in common, according to you? Did Enhedslisten get more votes from "ethnic Danes" (as opposed to people with an immigrant background) than last time, picking up some disillusioned SPP voters?

Enhedslisten gets votes from non-Western immigrants (their second preference after SD), but it is not an immigrant party. They have very few immigrant candidates and members. Plus Denmark still only has 10% foreign born (many of whom are from Scandinavia and Western Europe). Odense has a high ethnic minority population, but they are unlikely to have changed their voting pattern much. SD has a solid grip on the immigrant vote despite their "tough talk".

The main thing is that the Danish industry is in Jutland (and to a lesser degree Funen), and it is here that people feel the consequences of outsourcing. Traditionally the far left was weak in Jutland outside of Århus and Ålborg (anti-Communism and distrust of academic/theoretical approcach to politics and anything dominated by Copenhageners) but in the municipal elections in 2013 they had a breakthrough in "the province" picking up working class voters and disillusioned left wing SDs (anti-austerity voters). Their membership has also grown rapidly in these parts.
Odense is the third largest city, Esbjerg the fifth and Randers the sixth. The rest is smaller towns and the rural areas around them (not exurbs, we have zoning laws, so not an exurb country). A lot of the industry is in smalltowns. Local craftsmen setting up a small factory, that grew bigger. Jutland is filled with those. Enhedslisten is bound to have picked up some SPP voters, but not nearly as many as expected. A lot of their new voters are coming from SD. Given that they grew from a low level the increases are often small numerically. But they do convey an interesting trend.

[politicus]

Denmark has 530 000 adult immigrants and descendants (11.9% of voters), but only 180 000 of them have citizenship and the turnout is substantially lower than for ethnic Danes. So they are not a major factor in a Folketing election (more so in municipal elections where citizenship is not required). In addition Western immigrants actually vote slightly more centre-right than Danes + some non-Western immigrants also vote centre-right. So it all evens out and does not influence seat distribution much.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for explaining this, politicus!

[ingemann]

There's also another element when we talk about non-western immigrants we usual translate that into Muslims. The problem are that we really have little idea about how many Muslims there are in Denmark. The most common guess lies around 270 000, but it's likely lower as this number are based onm people coming from Muslim majority countries.

[Diouf]

A new study about the 2015 election has recently been published. Below are three of the main takeaways from the study.

Blue Bloc soared in the latter half of the campaign as immigration became the dominant theme



The charts above show the Blue Bloc's polling average and the most important topics for the voters during three weeks of the campaign. The Blue Bloc fell below 50% after the first half of the campaign, when welfare, and health care in particular, dominanted voters' mind. However, then immigration and refugees started to rise as the most important topic, and the Blue Bloc regained a clear lead. They fell back a little again right before election day, when the polling average had them om 50.47%. Of course, in the end it received 52.26% of the vote on election day, mainly because DPP did better than expected.

Lars Løkke cost the Liberals at least 50.000 votes

The scientists calculated how much the Liberal leader Lars Løkke cost the party in the 2015 election. They measure how much his personal popularity dropped after his expenses scandals, and then inserted that into their formula for how much personal popularity normally affects the vote shared of particular parties. That way they reach the number of 1.4% of all voters, i.e. 50.000 voters. They then even add that the final tally might be even bigger. The sympathy for the Liberal Party as a whole dropped as well, which cost the party an additional 130.000 voters. Some of the Liberal party's sympathy losses was probably due to Løkke, why some of these additional losses has him to blame. 

Big gap between four old parties and new parties in terms of trust in politicians



On average, 60% of the voters from the four old parties generally trust the politicians, while the same is only the case for 35% of the voters from the other parties. DPP in particular with the lowest trust score and a lot of voters draw that figure down. The Social Liberals have the biggest trust in politicians.