'What if' scenarios regarding 2012 GOP primary

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Hey guys, I'm pretty new here so forgive my lack of understanding in some key regards.

Ok lets get with it, one thing that has been pondering on my mind lately was what different scenarios could have been played regarding the 2012 primaries, like Ron Paul winning Iowa, or Newt Gingrich winning Florida, etc. Coming from the state of Florida, I remember the vicious campaign between Romney and Gingrich to win this states primary, while I personally didn't vote for either of these two gentlemen it would have been an interesting primary race going into February had Gingrich stepped over Romney to win Florida.

So, in regards to the 2012 GOP primary race, what in your opinion would have been good game changers , or would you have preferred another candidate jump into the race or a candidate dropping out, etc.

[BaconBacon96]

Personally, I don't think Gingrich winning Florida would have affected much at all. I think a more interesting scenario is what if Herman Cain never faltered. It was his demise just a month before the Iowa caucuses that led to Santorum's rise and ultimately, his coming second.

I don't think he could have beaten Romney but he certainly could have come second place in the race.

[dudeabides]

A few things:


1) Huckabee running. This would have changed the race completely. Mike Huckabee was leading in public opinion polls ahead of his decision not to enter the 2012 race. I think he would have been the nominee because he would have won Iowa, making Santorum's rise impossible. He then would have won in South Carolina, making Newt no longer credible. He then would have won the southern contests Santorum won. Whether he could have defeated Romney for the nomination is the big question. My guess is, he would have fared better than Santorum in midwestern states and been more formidable nationally as opposed to in just the south and rocky mountain west, as was the case with Santorum.

2) Romney not running. Romney said that a majority of his family, including himself initially, were opposed to him running in 2012. My guess is, this would have benefitted two candidates: Gingrich and Pawlenty. Gingrich would benefit from name I.D., Pawlenty's demeanor and center-right ideology would have attracted establishment backing and Romney's core supporters. Instead of dropping out before the Iowa Caucus, my guess is Pawlenty would have eventually won the nomination.

3) Giuliani running. Rudy Giuliani decided in the summer of 2011 he wouldn't run. My guess is had he run, he would have taken votes away from Romney. This would probably have benefitted Ron Paul, as conservatives would have divided between Gingrich & Santorum as moderates would divide between Romney & Giuliani. Giuliani would have to overcome the fact his 2008 bid was a disaster. He probably would have placed second or third in New Hampshire and Florida. It's unlikely he would have been the nominee. It is likely he would have prevented Romney from doing as well as he did in New Hampshire and Florida, perhaps enabling Ron Paul to win New Hampshire. Had Giuliani somehow won the nomination, my guess is he'd be President today.

4) Palin enters. This would have simply hurt Santorum and given Newt Gingrich the ability to compete 1-on-1 with Romney.

5) Cain doesn't withdrawal. Cain would have probably placed third of fourth in Iowa. He would not have become the nominee, but he would have done better than Michele Bachman and Rick Perry.

6) Gingrich doesn't run. His votes initially go to Rick Perry, who then stumbles and then Santorum benefits.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gingrich winning Florida would certainly increase the "Romney is not inevitable" feeling a ton. As far as whether it would have allowed to win in OK/TN/AL/MS/LA/etc., I think it depends on whether Santorum would still do as well as he did in February with a Gingrich win in Florida.

Ron Paul winning in Iowa is a big ?. How much it effects depends on whether the win would have caused him any real momentum, or whether it would have passed as a one-day story, and I honestly don't know which of the two would have happened.

[Maistre]

There was talk from the donor circles and even a few Romney advisers that if Gingrich beat Romney in FL, the establishment would have to draft someone other than Romney to beat Gingrich (who everyone was worried about winning).