New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Ebowed]

In contrast to the despicable Luke Foley, Mike Baird is calling on Tony to be more humane in his approach to refugees.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-premier-mike-baird-tells-prime-minister-tony-abbott-do-more-to-help-refugees-20150123-12wwcj.html

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Of course, this doesn't change the fact that he wants to sell off state assets left and right, but the Labor party is hardly in a position to fight him.

It's truly stunning, comparing with the situation in QLD.  Maybe Labor thought they were going to lose anyway so they chose the worst possible person to lead their party just so that he would retire from this role in disgrace.  But that would be giving them too much credit.

[Ebowed]

The result in Queensland yesterday, an amazing one to be sure, does rub a little bit of salt in the wounds when we consider that the Liberals will be returned in NSW.  After two one-term Liberal governments being shot down in a row, third time's a charm for the Liberal Nationalists.

Victoria was not so much of a surprise, but if a state like QLD can get its act together, it really makes one wonder about the pathetic state of the NSW ALP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If they manage to lose NSW, the Liberals should disband in humiliation.

[morgieb]

Heh, Baird won't go close to losing. He isn't an idiot like say Newman or Abbott, and Labor's still a bit on the nose here.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Admittedly, I am a tad sceptical to make a prediction for NSW just yet, after what happened in QLD. This being said, each state is different, and I can't see Premier Baird and the NSW Coalition losing.

[Knives]

tbh there's no way Labor wins NSW.

[Talleyrand]

Admittedly, I am a tad sceptical to make a prediction for NSW just yet, after what happened in QLD. This being said, each state is different, and I can't see Premier Baird and the NSW Coalition losing.

Baird is well-respected and popular, and he may not have the specter of a very unpopular Abbott behind him. In addition to NSW Labor's continuing woes (despite having many more seats than QLD Labor did going into last night's election), it's perfectly reasonable to anticipate a comfortable win for the Coalition. That said, it'll probably not be another 2011-style landslide, but possibly a more solid victory somewhat larger than Carr's in 2001.

tbh there's no way Labor wins NSW.

This. And they don't deserve to do so either right now.

[morgieb]

Admittedly, I am a tad sceptical to make a prediction for NSW just yet, after what happened in QLD. This being said, each state is different, and I can't see Premier Baird and the NSW Coalition losing.

Baird is well-respected and popular, and he may not have the specter of a very unpopular Abbott behind him. In addition to NSW Labor's continuing woes (despite having many more seats than QLD Labor did going into last night's election), it's perfectly reasonable to anticipate a comfortable win for the Coalition. That said, it'll probably not be another 2011-style landslide, but possibly a more solid victory somewhat larger than Carr's in 2001.

Carr didn't win in 2001, his wins were in 1999 and 2003.

I think it'll be tighter than that (at least on the 2PP vote)....I think it'll be a Coalition win eqivalent to Wran's 84 victory.

[Talleyrand]

Admittedly, I am a tad sceptical to make a prediction for NSW just yet, after what happened in QLD. This being said, each state is different, and I can't see Premier Baird and the NSW Coalition losing.

Baird is well-respected and popular, and he may not have the specter of a very unpopular Abbott behind him. In addition to NSW Labor's continuing woes (despite having many more seats than QLD Labor did going into last night's election), it's perfectly reasonable to anticipate a comfortable win for the Coalition. That said, it'll probably not be another 2011-style landslide, but possibly a more solid victory somewhat larger than Carr's in 2001.

Carr didn't win in 2001, his wins were in 1999 and 2003.

I think it'll be tighter than that (at least on the 2PP vote)....I think it'll be a Coalition win eqivalent to Wran's 84 victory.

2003, I meant, my bad. Yeah, in terms of seats, something like 1984 for the Coalition government makes sense, but I do expect that they'll end up doing fairly decently on the TPP. Maybe 54-56%, which would still be a 8-10% swing to the ALP from 2011.

[Talleyrand]

First poll after Queensland is out. It's from Fairfax/Ipsos (I don't know their track record).

TPP
LNP- 56% (+2)
Labor- 44% (-2)

Primary
Liberal/National- 46% (+2)
Labor- 34% (-2)
Greens- 12% (+1)
Others- 9% (no change)

Mike Baird Favorability
Approval- 60% (no change)
Disapproval- 18% (no change)

Luke Foley Favorability
Approval- 30%
Disapproval- 21%

Preferred Premier
Baird- 54%
Foley- 24%

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/02/08/fairfaxipsos-56-44-to-coalition-in-nsw/

On respondent-allocated preferences the TPP is actually 53-47; Make of that what you will.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm surprised NSW voters have such a high affinity with the outgoing Queensland leader, Talley

[andrew_c]

First poll after Queensland is out. It's from Fairfax/Ipsos (I don't know their track record).

TPP
LNP- 56% (+2)
Labor- 44% (-2)

Primary
Liberal/National- 46% (+2)
Labor- 34% (-2)
Greens- 12% (+1)
Others- 9% (no change)

Mike Baird Favorability
Approval- 60% (no change)
Disapproval- 18% (no change)

Luke Foley Favorability
Approval- 30%
Disapproval- 21%

Preferred Premier
Newman- 54%
Palaszczuk- 24%

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/02/08/fairfaxipsos-56-44-to-coalition-in-nsw/

On respondent-allocated preferences the TPP is actually 53-47; Make of that what you will.

Do you mean:
Baird 54%
Foley 24%
for preferred premier?

[Talleyrand]

Yes, it's been fixed. My apologies.

[Ebowed]

AusGrid contractors are removing signs for Labor and Green candidates from electricity poles, threatening the parties with $50 per violation.  Both of these parties oppose the privatisation of AusGrid.



This brand new policy of disallowing campaign signs on electricity poles from AusGrid has also been forwarded to the NSW Liberals, which say they are more than happy to comply (I haven't seen any Liberal signs, but that's due to my area so I can't draw any conclusions from that).

[Talleyrand]

Galaxy has it as 53-47 to the Coalition, down from 54-46 last time around.

[Hifly]

Morgan has 55.5-44.5 to the Coalition (up 1.5).

[morgieb]

Galaxy has it as 53-47 to the Coalition, down from 54-46 last time around.

And if preferences go like they did in Queensland, it might be more like 51-49.

[Barnes]

Galaxy has it as 53-47 to the Coalition, down from 54-46 last time around.

And if preferences go like they did in Queensland, it might be more like 51-49.

That's one of the biggest lessons to learn from Queensland: you simply can't assume preferences will remain basically unchanged from the last election.

[morgieb]

Galaxy has it as 53-47 to the Coalition, down from 54-46 last time around.

And if preferences go like they did in Queensland, it might be more like 51-49.

That's one of the biggest lessons to learn from Queensland: you simply can't assume preferences will remain basically unchanged from the last election.

Yeah, while in CPV I tend to favour results which use preferences from the last election, for OPV I prefer polls which use respondent allocated preferences.

[Barnes]

Galaxy has it as 53-47 to the Coalition, down from 54-46 last time around.

And if preferences go like they did in Queensland, it might be more like 51-49.

That's one of the biggest lessons to learn from Queensland: you simply can't assume preferences will remain basically unchanged from the last election.

Yeah, while in CPV I tend to favour results which use preferences from the last election, for OPV I prefer polls which use respondent allocated preferences.

Yep, there is certainly a distinction between the two, but I do think that there's been a least a moderate shift in preference flows here.

[Ebowed]

On the plus side, unlike QLD and Vic, because of the election being upcoming rather than just occurred, our greyhound racing board in NSW was disbanded (slightly old news, but I still find it amusing).  Whether that will result in any meaningful reform (preferably, a total ban of the practice), I'm not too optimistic, especially as I can't see either the Liberal or Labor parties here making a serious effort to combat animal cruelty and gambling.  With Labor's seeming capitulation on WestConnex and similar congestion timebombs, it's very hard to see them making a real contest here.  They just haven't presented enough of an opposition to much of the Liberal agenda.

[Talleyrand]

ReachTel has it 53-47 to the Coalition with primary votes of 45%, 35%, and 10%. Baird approvals are 42-21 while Foley is underwater at 17-27.

Newspoll has it at 54-46, and 43%, 36%, and 11%. Baird is at 59-26 and Foley at 36-31. Preferred Premier is 55-25.

Morgan has virtually the same primary votes as Newspoll, but it's at 52.5-47.5 on the TPP. Baird's at 49-26 and Foley at 28-28. Preferred Premier is 69-31.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/02/27/newspoll-54-46-to-coalition-in-nsw-2/
https://twitter.com/ghostwhovotes

[Ebowed]

Antony Green's assessment.

I don't quite agree, I think he is overcompensating for a reluctance to embrace the result as it was in QLD.  With a result like 69-31 for preferred premier, it's difficult to see a government change without a polling shift.

[Talleyrand]

I tend to agree with your analysis overall, Ebowed.

He does have some interesting points in there though, such as the tidbit about the North Coast seats.

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I don't think the ALP is in a position to take any of this trio, but I wonder how much they'll improve. There was also a substantial Greens presence in them, especially in Ballina (I read somewhere the Nationals are slightly worried about a Green upset there).

[morgieb]

53/47 Coalition according to ReachTEL, both respondent allocated and on 2011 preferences.

And also, from William Bowe, here is the federal election in 2013 on state boundaries:



Some interesting margins.