New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No way 2011 preference flows and respondent allocated line up... makes no sense.

Plus that's a weird bloody graph.

[morgieb]

No way 2011 preference flows and respondent allocated line up... makes no sense.

Plus that's a weird bloody graph.

In fairness the preference flows are from a 9 point Coalition lead....makes me think that ReachTEL misjudged that years preference flows.

Weird graph? Looks pretty understandable to me - first column the current margin of the district, second column the margin of the district under 2013 results. Unless you're surprised about the margins?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No way 2011 preference flows and respondent allocated line up... makes no sense.

Plus that's a weird bloody graph.

In fairness the preference flows are from a 9 point Coalition lead....makes me think that ReachTEL misjudged that years preference flows.

Weird graph? Looks pretty understandable to me - first column the current margin of the district, second column the margin of the district under 2013 results. Unless you're surprised about the margins?

I've looked at it again - and the formatting seemed a bit off to me, but it's all fine.

[Talleyrand]

Using Smid's map in the gallery, here are those federal results on the state boundaries.

[morgieb]

OK predictions again. Except this time I should know what I'm talking about, given I live here, and always have:

Albury - Liberal hold.
Auburn - Labor hold.
Ballina - traditionally a safe Nationals seat at the seat level, but federally this seat is pretty solidly Labor and the sitting MP is retiring. Given the Greens vote is really strong here due, it will prohbaly be a three horse race. If preferences run like they did in Queensland, I forsee a Labor gain here. Otherwise, a narrow National hold.
Balmain - with Firth recontesting, I think the ALP regain this seat. I think the seat will vote Liberal eventually, but if they didn't win it in 2011.....
Bankstown - Labor hold.
Barwon - probably a Nationals hold. That said, it is one of the seats where the anti-CSG campaign is running, and given the seat now has Broken Hill......it could be very fertile territory for an independent.
Bathurst - my bolter. Not prepared to give it to Labor due to the sitting MP's popularity, but it should swing big due to the privatisation thing and also rural discontent towards the Coalition. If Labor wins, this is my "OMG wow" seat that they win, like Bundaberg/Maryborough was in Queensland.
Baulkham Hills - Liberal hold.
Bega - interesting. It would be very marginal on federal figures and there wasn't that big of a swing here in 2011. Certainly it could be a bolter, though I'll play it safe and say it stays in Coalition hands for now.
Blacktown - Labor hold.
Blue Mountains - traditionally a bellwether, the district feels like it is trending in Labor's favour (they may well have held the electorate under CPV in 2011, and it is pretty safe for them federally), so I'm calling this a Labor gain.
Cabramatta - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Camden - with the district being more obviously exurban since the redistribution, this should be a Liberal seat until Labor are well entrenched in government.
Campbelltown - despite the redistribution making the district 1. better for the Liberals and 2. Liberal held on federal figures, this should probably flip back to Labor.
Canterbury - Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Liberal hold.
Cessnock - Labor hold.
Charlestown - Labor hold. Will be interested to see the margin though - the Liberals didn't contest the by-election, but they did very well here in 2011.
Clarence - National hold, albeit with a big swing against them.
Coffs Harbour - ditto.
Coogee - tough. If preferences work like they did in Queensland, Labor gain. Otherwise a Liberal hold. Might not swing particularly big either.
Cootamundra - National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Liberal hold.
Drummoyne - there will probably be some correction in Labor's favour, but the seat should remain Liberal in this election.
Dubbo - National hold.
East Hills - too marginal for the Liberals to hold, but the swing might not be that great.
Epping - Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Gosford - tough to call. Gut feel that Holstein will barely hang on due to the fact that he wasn't ICAC'd possibly helping his centrist credentials.
Goulburn - probably a Liberal hold, but the area has been receptive to Labor in the (admittedly distant) past and Labor have a strong candidate here....
Granville - one of the first seats to flip back to Labor.
Hawkesbury - Liberal hold.
Heathcote - with the redistribution this looks safer for the Liberals. Shouldn't flip this election, anyway.
Heffron - Labor hold.
Holsworthy - could go either way. I think the fact that the sitting MP is from the Sutherland side of the district (which got carved out of the district in the redistribution) rather than the Liverpool side suggests that Labor narrowly pinch it.
Hornsby - Liberal hold.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama - interesting one. Think Labor pick it up.
Kogarah - Labor hold, perhaps with a below-average swing.
Ku-ring-gai - Liberal hold.
Lake Macquarie - Independent hold presumably.
Lakemba - Labor hold.
Lane Cove - Liberal hold.
Lismore - traditionally a conservative seat at the state level, nowhere in the state is the anti-CSG campaign biting harder. Will come down to how tight the Labor and Greens preference flows are.
Liverpool - Labor hold.
Londonderry - should be a fairly straight forward Labor gain.
Macquarie Fields - despite the retirement of the sitting MP and the redistribution, the seat should flip back to Labor.
Maitland - probable Labor gain.
Manly - Liberal hold.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda - with Collier not recontesting, the seat should go back to the Liberals.
Monaro - had Whan decided against a rematch the seat might have been salvagable. As it is.....
Mount Druitt - Labor hold.
Mulgoa - will probably go to the winner. For now, narrow Liberal hold.
Murray - National hold.
Myall Lakes - National hold.
Newcastle - Labor hold, probably with a slightly reduced margin to the by-election.
Newtown - tough. Both Labor and the Greens have their chances here. Forced to call, I'd say the Greens narrowly hold, though Labor IMO have the stronger candidate.
North Shore - Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands - National hold.
Oatley - despite the small margin, I actually think the Liberals hang on here, given that the area voted Liberal fairly comfortably in 2013, and the fact that the highly popular Kevin Greene is no longer there.
Orange - National hold.
Oxley - National hold.
Parramatta - key contest, could be crucial towards deciding who wins. Narrow Liberal hold perhaps.
Penrith - with Jackie Kelly (ex-MP for the local federal seat of Lindsay) contesting as an independent this is very interesting. Hard to call, but for now I'll give the edge towards Ayers (the Liberal candidate and sitting MP) holding on.
Pittwater - Liberal hold.
Port Macquarie - National hold.
Port Stephens - with the sitting MP ICAC'd, and a below average swing here in 2011, I think Labor narrowly pick it up.
Prospect - if Labor can't win this back, they may as well give up.
Riverstone - probably a Liberal hold, but it would be Labor held on federal results (mostly due to Jaymes Diaz, but still....), so if the night is really good for Labor, there is upset potential here.
Rockdale - fairly routine Labor gain.
Ryde - Liberal hold, though with a big correction in Labor's favour.
Seven Hills - with Rees retiring, and an unfavourable redistribution to drag this into more Liberal-friendly territory in the Hills, I think the Liberals narrowly hold on unless it's a bad night for them.
Shellharbour - Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberals probably hold on here.
Strathfield - if Labor had pre-selected a low profile candidate I'd give the Liberals a good chance of hanging on here against the swing. But Labor did elect a high profile candidate here, one that will join Labor's cabinet and give them some experience, and also should get some sympathy for standing up to property developers/the Terrigals in her first term in parliament. Therefore, probably a Labor gain.
Summer Hill - Labor hold, it will be interesting to see who finished 2nd though.
Swansea - straight forward Labor gain.
Sydney - not sure here. The district is more Liberal now than what it was during Clover's time, and also it's likely that Greenwich doesn't have the same profile Clover did. On the other hand, it's hard to see Liberals gaining districts they don't already have......also their candidate seems a bit weak. Forced to call, Greenwich hangs on.
Tamworth - this will come down to how well the anti-CSG campaign bites. Foley's lack of success in his old district makes me skeptical of Draper's hopes of regaining Tamworth, but if the Nationals start to stink, it'll be very interesting. Forced to call, Nationals hold for now.
Terrigal - although the fact that the long term sitting MP was forced to retire from corruption allegations will hurt the Liberals here, the seat looks a bit too safe for it to fall unless the wind was well in Labor's backs.
The Entrance - another sitting Liberal MP from the Central Coast/Hunter ICAC'd. Will be close, I think Labor pinch this one.
Tweed - the North Coast trends against the Nationals will concern them here, but I'll say it'll be a National hold unless the election is a bad one for them.
Upper Hunter - should be safe for the Nationals, but the anti-CSG campaign is biting here...and it has been more marginal at the federal level in the past. Nationals should hold with a big swing against them, most likely.
Vaucluse - Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Liberal hold.
Wakehurst - Liberal hold.
Wallsend - Labor hold.
Willoughby - Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - with the new boundaries, this seat should be Liberal held for the forseeable future.
Woolongong - like in 2011, a left-leaning Independent is Labor's main challenge in this seat. However given that Bradbury's challenge to Hay didn't pay off in 2011, I'm not seeing a reason why Rorris's will in 2015.
Wyong - with the sitting MP forced to resign and the guy who lost (with a below average swing against him, it must be said) recontesting, this should go back to Labor. Particularly given that Labor held it on federal figures in 2013 despite....you know.

[Talleyrand]

Why do you think the Liberals will win seats like Sydney and Balmain down the road? Is it similar to the gentrification situation in Queensland with seats like Brisbane Central and Bulimba?

[morgieb]

Why do you think the Liberals will win seats like Sydney and Balmain down the road? Is it similar to the gentrification situation in Queensland with seats like Brisbane Central and Bulimba?

Basically, yes. In fact, Sydney if you discount Clover would actually be quite solidly Liberal on 2011 results, and even federally Labor probably would've lost it without CPV.

[DL]

I have a question:

In other anglo countries such as the Canada, the US and Great Britain, inner city areas that "gentrify" still tend to vote solidly for non-conservative parties - such as electing Democrats to the House of Representatives  in the US, electing Labour or occasionally LibDem MPs in the UK anbd electing Liberals and New Democrats in Canada. The Canadian equivalent of the Liberal Party of Australia would be the Conservative Party... and it will be a cold day in hell before an inner city seat in Toronto will elect a Conservative at any level - no matter gentrified or high income it gets. Similarly no congressional district in Manhattan will elect a Republican - no matter how rich and gentrified it gets.

So how is it that in Australia - people in an inner city socially liberal, gentrified area of Sydney would even think of voting for a rabidly rightwing party led by a Catholic social conservative like the Liberal party of Australia?? Its not as if the ALP is some revolutionary party that wants to confiscate everyone's wealth.

[morgieb]

I have a question:

In other anglo countries such as the Canada, the US and Great Britain, inner city areas that "gentrify" still tend to vote solidly for non-conservative parties - such as electing Democrats to the House of Representatives  in the US, electing Labour or occasionally LibDem MPs in the UK anbd electing Liberals and New Democrats in Canada. The Canadian equivalent of the Liberal Party of Australia would be the Conservative Party... and it will be a cold day in hell before an inner city seat in Toronto will elect a Conservative at any level - no matter gentrified or high income it gets. Similarly no congressional district in Manhattan will elect a Republican - no matter how rich and gentrified it gets.

So how is it that in Australia - people in an inner city socially liberal, gentrified area of Sydney would even think of voting for a rabidly rightwing party led by a Catholic social conservative like the Liberal party of Australia?? Its not as if the ALP is some revolutionary party that wants to confiscate everyone's wealth.

Ehh....they wouldn't vote for an Abbott-led Liberal party, but they may be somewhat receptive to Turnbull. Look at the swing he's got in his own electorate!

UK and Canada are a bit different to Australia as they have three parties not two. I don't think the areas you describe vote Labour/NDP, instead they vote Liberal. And the US is basically redundant, the voting patterns are rather different to what they are here.

There has been some evidence of a softening of the ALP vote in these areas. In addition, these areas are really rich. To get a house around Balmain for example (once a solidly working-class area, look at the amount of pubs there!) is really expensive, like most of the old working-class is being priced out of there. In the long term you're not gonna see the latte liberals that live there now be around, instead it'll be like the mini-North Shore. Look at Drummoyne, a seat John Howard couldn't pick up. It's now pretty solidly Liberal, due to a lot of wealthy waterside developments. The same factors that affected that seat will affect Balmain before too long IMO.

If you add the OPV effect (the latte liberal/champagne socialist vote being split between the ALP and the Greens), then you get a big shot for the LNP to sneak to victory.

Still, this likely won't happen for another 10+ years at least.

[morgieb]

OK predictions again. Except this time I should know what I'm talking about, given I live here, and always have:

Albury - Liberal hold.
Auburn - Labor hold.
Ballina - traditionally a safe Nationals seat at the seat level, but federally this seat is pretty solidly Labor and the sitting MP is retiring. Given the Greens vote is really strong here due, it will prohbaly be a three horse race. If preferences run like they did in Queensland, I forsee a Labor gain here. Otherwise, a narrow National hold.
Balmain - with Firth recontesting, I think the ALP regain this seat. I think the seat will vote Liberal eventually, but if they didn't win it in 2011.....
Bankstown - Labor hold.
Barwon - probably a Nationals hold. That said, it is one of the seats where the anti-CSG campaign is running, and given the seat now has Broken Hill......it could be very fertile territory for an independent.
Bathurst - my bolter. Not prepared to give it to Labor due to the sitting MP's popularity, but it should swing big due to the privatisation thing and also rural discontent towards the Coalition. If Labor wins, this is my "OMG wow" seat that they win, like Bundaberg/Maryborough was in Queensland.
Baulkham Hills - Liberal hold.
Bega - interesting. It would be very marginal on federal figures and there wasn't that big of a swing here in 2011. Certainly it could be a bolter, though I'll play it safe and say it stays in Coalition hands for now.
Blacktown - Labor hold.
Blue Mountains - traditionally a bellwether, the district feels like it is trending in Labor's favour (they may well have held the electorate under CPV in 2011, and it is pretty safe for them federally), so I'm calling this a Labor gain.
Cabramatta - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Camden - with the district being more obviously exurban since the redistribution, this should be a Liberal seat until Labor are well entrenched in government.
Campbelltown - despite the redistribution making the district 1. better for the Liberals and 2. Liberal held on federal figures, this should probably flip back to Labor.
Canterbury - Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Liberal hold.
Cessnock - Labor hold.
Charlestown - Labor hold. Will be interested to see the margin though - the Liberals didn't contest the by-election, but they did very well here in 2011.
Clarence - National hold, albeit with a big swing against them.
Coffs Harbour - ditto.
Coogee - tough. If preferences work like they did in Queensland, Labor gain. Otherwise a Liberal hold. Might not swing particularly big either.
Cootamundra - National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Liberal hold.
Drummoyne - there will probably be some correction in Labor's favour, but the seat should remain Liberal in this election.
Dubbo - National hold.
East Hills - too marginal for the Liberals to hold, but the swing might not be that great.
Epping - Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Gosford - tough to call. Gut feel that Holstein will barely hang on due to the fact that he wasn't ICAC'd possibly helping his centrist credentials.
Goulburn - probably a Liberal hold, but the area has been receptive to Labor in the (admittedly distant) past and Labor have a strong candidate here....
Granville - one of the first seats to flip back to Labor.
Hawkesbury - Liberal hold.
Heathcote - with the redistribution this looks safer for the Liberals. Shouldn't flip this election, anyway.
Heffron - Labor hold.
Holsworthy - could go either way. I think the fact that the sitting MP is from the Sutherland side of the district (which got carved out of the district in the redistribution) rather than the Liverpool side suggests that Labor narrowly pinch it.
Hornsby - Liberal hold.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama - interesting one. Think Labor pick it up.
Kogarah - Labor hold, perhaps with a below-average swing.
Ku-ring-gai - Liberal hold.
Lake Macquarie - Independent hold presumably.
Lakemba - Labor hold.
Lane Cove - Liberal hold.
Lismore - traditionally a conservative seat at the state level, nowhere in the state is the anti-CSG campaign biting harder. Will come down to how tight the Labor and Greens preference flows are.
Liverpool - Labor hold.
Londonderry - should be a fairly straight forward Labor gain.
Macquarie Fields - despite the retirement of the sitting MP and the redistribution, the seat should flip back to Labor.
Maitland - probable Labor gain.
Manly - Liberal hold.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda - with Collier not recontesting, the seat should go back to the Liberals.
Monaro - had Whan decided against a rematch the seat might have been salvagable. As it is.....
Mount Druitt - Labor hold.
Mulgoa - will probably go to the winner. For now, narrow Liberal hold.
Murray - National hold.
Myall Lakes - National hold.
Newcastle - Labor hold, probably with a slightly reduced margin to the by-election.
Newtown - tough. Both Labor and the Greens have their chances here. Forced to call, I'd say the Greens narrowly hold, though Labor IMO have the stronger candidate.
North Shore - Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands - National hold.
Oatley - despite the small margin, I actually think the Liberals hang on here, given that the area voted Liberal fairly comfortably in 2013, and the fact that the highly popular Kevin Greene is no longer there.
Orange - National hold.
Oxley - National hold.
Parramatta - key contest, could be crucial towards deciding who wins. Narrow Liberal hold perhaps.
Penrith - with Jackie Kelly (ex-MP for the local federal seat of Lindsay) contesting as an independent this is very interesting. Hard to call, but for now I'll give the edge towards Ayers (the Liberal candidate and sitting MP) holding on.
Pittwater - Liberal hold.
Port Macquarie - National hold.
Port Stephens - with the sitting MP ICAC'd, and a below average swing here in 2011, I think Labor narrowly pick it up.
Prospect - if Labor can't win this back, they may as well give up.
Riverstone - probably a Liberal hold, but it would be Labor held on federal results (mostly due to Jaymes Diaz, but still....), so if the night is really good for Labor, there is upset potential here.
Rockdale - fairly routine Labor gain.
Ryde - Liberal hold, though with a big correction in Labor's favour.
Seven Hills - with Rees retiring, and an unfavourable redistribution to drag this into more Liberal-friendly territory in the Hills, I think the Liberals narrowly hold on unless it's a bad night for them.
Shellharbour - Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberals probably hold on here.
Strathfield - if Labor had pre-selected a low profile candidate I'd give the Liberals a good chance of hanging on here against the swing. But Labor did elect a high profile candidate here, one that will join Labor's cabinet and give them some experience, and also should get some sympathy for standing up to property developers/the Terrigals in her first term in parliament. Therefore, probably a Labor gain.
Summer Hill - Labor hold, it will be interesting to see who finished 2nd though.
Swansea - straight forward Labor gain.
Sydney - not sure here. The district is more Liberal now than what it was during Clover's time, and also it's likely that Greenwich doesn't have the same profile Clover did. On the other hand, it's hard to see Liberals gaining districts they don't already have......also their candidate seems a bit weak. Forced to call, Greenwich hangs on.
Tamworth - this will come down to how well the anti-CSG campaign bites. Foley's lack of success in his old district makes me skeptical of Draper's hopes of regaining Tamworth, but if the Nationals start to stink, it'll be very interesting. Forced to call, Nationals hold for now.
Terrigal - although the fact that the long term sitting MP was forced to retire from corruption allegations will hurt the Liberals here, the seat looks a bit too safe for it to fall unless the wind was well in Labor's backs.
The Entrance - another sitting Liberal MP from the Central Coast/Hunter ICAC'd. Will be close, I think Labor pinch this one.
Tweed - the North Coast trends against the Nationals will concern them here, but I'll say it'll be a National hold unless the election is a bad one for them.
Upper Hunter - should be safe for the Nationals, but the anti-CSG campaign is biting here...and it has been more marginal at the federal level in the past. Nationals should hold with a big swing against them, most likely.
Vaucluse - Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Liberal hold.
Wakehurst - Liberal hold.
Wallsend - Labor hold.
Willoughby - Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - with the new boundaries, this seat should be Liberal held for the forseeable future.
Woolongong - like in 2011, a left-leaning Independent is Labor's main challenge in this seat. However given that Bradbury's challenge to Hay didn't pay off in 2011, I'm not seeing a reason why Rorris's will in 2015.
Wyong - with the sitting MP forced to resign and the guy who lost (with a below average swing against him, it must be said) recontesting, this should go back to Labor. Particularly given that Labor held it on federal figures in 2013 despite....you know.

So by my calculations:

Coalition: 49
Labor: 41
Other: 3

Coalition 3 seats away from losing their majority....guess this kinda shows how ALP-leaning the boundaries are in NSW.

In general, this is how I think the regions will swing:

Labor "heartland" - aka the Western Suburbs, the Hunter and Illawarra. This area will probably be where the anti-privatisation message will kick the hardest, accordingly I expect these seats to rush back to Labor. Expect the Fairfields, Liverpools, Lakembas, etc. of the world to have 20%+ margins again.

Liberal "heartland" - North Shore/Northern Beaches basically. The North Shore will probably stick with the Liberals for the most part and remain quite safe, though Labor should at least finish 2nd here in the majority of the districts.

The marginal suburbs - think Parramatta, Penrith, Oatley, etc. In contrast to the more underprivileged suburbs, I think this area will (relatively) stick with Baird, due to his more grandoise promises regarding infrastructure, and them being wealthier making Foley's more populist message resonate less with these people. In addition, the so-called "mortgage belt" has traditionally been fairly pro-incumbent, and are willing to back them to the hilt unless they look gone.

Rural NSW - the wildcard. There definitely seems to be some souring towards the Nationals, and it is seen with Labor campaigning in Upper Hunter, an strong anti-CSG campaign in Ballina and Lismore, etc. I think this area will swing big towards Labor, and could tip the Coalition out of government.

[ObserverIE]

I have a question:

In other anglo countries such as the Canada, the US and Great Britain, inner city areas that "gentrify" still tend to vote solidly for non-conservative parties - such as electing Democrats to the House of Representatives  in the US, electing Labour or occasionally LibDem MPs in the UK anbd electing Liberals and New Democrats in Canada.

It depends on the type of people who are moving in during gentrification. You have the sort of people who work in the FIRE section of the economy, and then you have the artsy, academic and public sector types (bohos and hipsters as convenient stereotypes). The two groups will vote very differently.

If you look at inner London, you have seats like Battersea, Putney, and the Fulham part of Chelsea and Fulham which were traditionally solid Labour but have become Conservative over time as the City set take over. You also have seats like Richmond, where one set of gentrifiers have started to displace the other, resulting in a formerly Lib Dem seat becoming safely Tory last time against the expected trend. On the other hand, you have traditional upper middle-class bluestocking seats (Cambridge, Bristol West, Sheffield Hallam, Manchester Withington) which were safely Conservative pre-Thatcher but are now unwinnable for the party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will post more later, but note for now that Australia has a unique urban geography that does not follow the usual rules.

[lilTommy]

I have a question:

In other anglo countries such as the Canada, the US and Great Britain, inner city areas that "gentrify" still tend to vote solidly for non-conservative parties - such as electing Democrats to the House of Representatives  in the US, electing Labour or occasionally LibDem MPs in the UK anbd electing Liberals and New Democrats in Canada.

It depends on the type of people who are moving in during gentrification. You have the sort of people who work in the FIRE section of the economy, and then you have the artsy, academic and public sector types (bohos and hipsters as convenient stereotypes). The two groups will vote very differently.

If you look at inner London, you have seats like Battersea, Putney, and the Fulham part of Chelsea and Fulham which were traditionally solid Labour but have become Conservative over time as the City set take over. You also have seats like Richmond, where one set of gentrifiers have started to displace the other, resulting in a formerly Lib Dem seat becoming safely Tory last time against the expected trend. On the other hand, you have traditional upper middle-class bluestocking seats (Cambridge, Bristol West, Sheffield Hallam, Manchester Withington) which were safely Conservative pre-Thatcher but are now unwinnable for the party.

From a CDN perspective, and to add to what ObserverIE said, the Urban cores are very Liberal/NDP... they don't just vote Liberal, Different neighbourhoods based on income, ethnicity vote differntly. here Candidates and policies are also in play. In Vancouver (the DT only, not the east side which is solid NSP) you have the very NDP friendly West End vs the wealthier but socially progressive Liberal voting Yaletown and Coal Harbour. Toronto (I know more about) You have areas like Trinity-Bellwoods and Palmerston, The Annex and University and Kensington which tend to vote more towards the NDP due to the "artsy, academic and public sector types (bohos and hipsters as convenient stereotypes)" where as the waterfront communities, St. Lawrence, Cabbagetown tend to swing liberal as these areas are more professional and well off. Regent Park/St. Jamestown used to be Liberal, they are now trending NDP these are your low income, high immigrant communities. BUT candidates and policies play a role, the University/Kensington and Regent Park/St.Jamestown swung Liberal during the lasts provincial election for a number of mostly policy reasons. The By-election in the DT riding of Trinity-Spadina was an example of candidates, in 2011 the riding went heavily NDP winning everywhere (including the more Liberal waterfront) but a "star" liberal and general liberal momentum won big in strong areas of the waterfront and also swung the University, The Annex and Kensington areas.
The point is, the wealthier areas vote Liberal here where it sounds like they would vote Liberal in Australia (even though the Canadian Liberals are moderate centrist while more staunchly conservative in AUS) the urban cores in CA tend to, if your fiscally conservative, vote Liberal no one is caught dead admitting they vote Conservative

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would disagree that Balmain and Sydney are likely to vote Lib in the near future. Gentrification does not always equal voting conservative. Firstly, considering how brutal 2011 was, it's not a good base year. You mention Drummoyne, very interesting example and an area I know well. Drummoyne did go through very rapid gentrification, very similar to that of Balmain (if anything, Balmain's change has been more pronounced), but what has been less damaging in Balmian is much less development. Drummoyne/Five Dock have both gentrified but also collected middle of the road commuters, due to developments both on Victoria Rd and along the river. Balmain doesn't have the same mix and I think it's population is more stable.

I think Sydney as a state seat, gets too mixed up with Wenthworth, the Federal seat. The population base of Sydney is a real mixed bag  Haymarket has a largely Asian population and can flirt with the Libs, Utlimo and Pyrmont is most young professionals and you have Paddington, Potts Point, Darlinghurst and Elizabeth Bay which mixes - rich, yes but also more bohemian and while Turnbull did well when he picked up parts of Darlinghurst, it is down to his personal vote. Sydney as an electorate does like to march to its own beat, I don't see it going to anyone but a community Independent for a long time.

[lilTommy]

Is that more of a conservative prediction morgieb? With those numbers being so tight on electorates, it wouldn't take much for Labor to swing into government as they did in Queensland no? if they do even marginally better then expected, in particular in one region or another. As you mention say Rural NSW if they pick up on the anti-CSG vote or in the Mortgage belt if there is an unexpected swing.

[Talleyrand]

Is that more of a conservative prediction morgieb? With those numbers being so tight on electorates, it wouldn't take much for Labor to swing into government as they did in Queensland no? if they do even marginally better then expected, in particular in one region or another. As you mention say Rural NSW if they pick up on the anti-CSG vote or in the Mortgage belt if there is an unexpected swing.

It might actually take more- due to the electoral geography of NSW, Labor would need a uniform 20% swing to enter office with a bare majority of 47 seats. However, considering how varied things will be across the board, they'll probably need less than that.

[Ebowed]

Penny Sharpe seems like a terrible candidate for Newtown, what with the whole WestConnex fiasco, even if Labor has come up with an alternate 'solution' that avoids King street.  The Greens vote share will probably go up this year from 2011, so what makes you so sure that Balmain would also fall?

As for Summer Hill second place (it's where I live), it's tough to say.  I'd like to say the Greens as I've seen no campaign presence by the Liberals here, but that's almost always the case.  There are plenty of people who will come out and vote for the Liberals without anyone needing to tell them to.

[morgieb]

Penny Sharpe seems like a terrible candidate for Newtown, what with the whole WestConnex fiasco, even if Labor has come up with an alternate 'solution' that avoids King street.  The Greens vote share will probably go up this year from 2011, so what makes you so sure that Balmain would also fall?

As for Summer Hill second place (it's where I live), it's tough to say.  I'd like to say the Greens as I've seen no campaign presence by the Liberals here, but that's almost always the case.  There are plenty of people who will come out and vote for the Liberals without anyone needing to tell them to.

Greens typically lose support as the election rolls on. More importantly, there'll be a drop of the Liberal vote.

[Ebowed]

Penny Sharpe seems like a terrible candidate for Newtown, what with the whole WestConnex fiasco, even if Labor has come up with an alternate 'solution' that avoids King street.  The Greens vote share will probably go up this year from 2011, so what makes you so sure that Balmain would also fall?

As for Summer Hill second place (it's where I live), it's tough to say.  I'd like to say the Greens as I've seen no campaign presence by the Liberals here, but that's almost always the case.  There are plenty of people who will come out and vote for the Liberals without anyone needing to tell them to.

Greens typically lose support as the election rolls on. More importantly, there'll be a drop of the Liberal vote.

Did you see the leaders' debate last night?  Mike Baird usually comes across as fairly likeable and charismatic, but somehow putting him next to the unlikeable and uncharismatic Luke Foley made him look sort of awful too.  I don't see how either of them really could have "won" that debate.

The Greens vote share plunging as the election nears is no guarantee.  Increases from the previous result were present in the recent Victorian and Queensland elections.  There are plenty of good reasons for voters to be reluctant to embrace either of the major parties in the current electoral climate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the important side of things is that has been said before, NSW is a very strange place when it comes to political geography.

Newtown, Balmain etc should have a stronger Labor primary and less Lib preferences being to directed to the Greens. I don't expect those seats to see stronger Green primaries.

[Talleyrand]

The new Galaxy is out.



http://www.news.com.au/national/latest-poll-premier-mike-baird-building-a-winning-lead/story-e6frfkp9-1227263969877

Also, an interesting internal tidbit from Poll Bludger-

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/16/galaxy-54-46-to-coalition-in-nsw-2/

[Sol]

Will post more later, but note for now that Australia has a unique urban geography that does not follow the usual rules.

Please do, sounds interesting.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ALP and the Greens have made a preference deal in some key seats.

Those covered are:
- Ballina
- Lismore
- Tweed
- The Entrance
- Strathfield
- Granville
- Campbelltown
- Blue Mountains
- East Hills
- Gosford
- Heathcote
- Holsworthy
- Kiama
- Kogarah
- Londonderry 
- Macquarie Fields
- Maitland
- Oatley
- Penrith
- Prospect

Balmain and Newtown, naturally, are not included.

Considering that allocated preference polling analysis has it at roughly 52-48... a Labor advantage of 2% over 2011 flow-based polling ... this could make things very entertaining.

In return, Labor will direct preferences to the Greens in the LC.

[Talleyrand]

Apparently an internal by an independent candidate has the National incumbent in Barwon's primary vote cut in half and trailing on preferences. Not buying it, but this might be an interesting seat to watch on election night.

[Talleyrand]

Guardian/Lonergan has it as 55-45 to the Coalition, while Galaxy has it at 54-46.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/21/new-south-wales-election-minus-one-week/

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/22/reachtel-labor-leads-in-ballina-newtown-and-strathfield/

There are also three electorate polls, showing some fairly surprising results.

In Ballina, Labor is ahead of the Nationals 52.2-47.8.

In Strathfield, Labor is ahead of the Liberals only 50.8-49.2.

In Newtown, Labor is ahead of the Greens 56.5-43.5.