New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No way 2011 preference flows and respondent allocated line up... makes no sense.

Plus that's a weird bloody graph.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No way 2011 preference flows and respondent allocated line up... makes no sense.

Plus that's a weird bloody graph.

In fairness the preference flows are from a 9 point Coalition lead....makes me think that ReachTEL misjudged that years preference flows.

Weird graph? Looks pretty understandable to me - first column the current margin of the district, second column the margin of the district under 2013 results. Unless you're surprised about the margins?

I've looked at it again - and the formatting seemed a bit off to me, but it's all fine.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would disagree that Balmain and Sydney are likely to vote Lib in the near future. Gentrification does not always equal voting conservative. Firstly, considering how brutal 2011 was, it's not a good base year. You mention Drummoyne, very interesting example and an area I know well. Drummoyne did go through very rapid gentrification, very similar to that of Balmain (if anything, Balmain's change has been more pronounced), but what has been less damaging in Balmian is much less development. Drummoyne/Five Dock have both gentrified but also collected middle of the road commuters, due to developments both on Victoria Rd and along the river. Balmain doesn't have the same mix and I think it's population is more stable.

I think Sydney as a state seat, gets too mixed up with Wenthworth, the Federal seat. The population base of Sydney is a real mixed bag  Haymarket has a largely Asian population and can flirt with the Libs, Utlimo and Pyrmont is most young professionals and you have Paddington, Potts Point, Darlinghurst and Elizabeth Bay which mixes - rich, yes but also more bohemian and while Turnbull did well when he picked up parts of Darlinghurst, it is down to his personal vote. Sydney as an electorate does like to march to its own beat, I don't see it going to anyone but a community Independent for a long time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the important side of things is that has been said before, NSW is a very strange place when it comes to political geography.

Newtown, Balmain etc should have a stronger Labor primary and less Lib preferences being to directed to the Greens. I don't expect those seats to see stronger Green primaries.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ALP and the Greens have made a preference deal in some key seats.

Those covered are:
- Ballina
- Lismore
- Tweed
- The Entrance
- Strathfield
- Granville
- Campbelltown
- Blue Mountains
- East Hills
- Gosford
- Heathcote
- Holsworthy
- Kiama
- Kogarah
- Londonderry 
- Macquarie Fields
- Maitland
- Oatley
- Penrith
- Prospect

Balmain and Newtown, naturally, are not included.

Considering that allocated preference polling analysis has it at roughly 52-48... a Labor advantage of 2% over 2011 flow-based polling ... this could make things very entertaining.

In return, Labor will direct preferences to the Greens in the LC.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How accurate are Australian electorate polls?

Not especially.

If these are to be believed, the Labor party is doing better in regional communities than in some of the western suburbs.  Which might explain why the Coalition has such a good statewide result.  IIRC, Strathfield is normally a safe Labor area.  I don't know what to make of the Newtown poll, except that I hope it's inaccurate.

Well, my view has been that we'll see Coalition seats on 15%+ margins fall but they'll hold on seats on 5-8%.

I don't think the Greens will win Newtown, the margin in that poll surprises me. But I think the ALP primary will return to normal and a reverse of the protest preference flows from 2011 in that area will ensure the ALP will win.

Strathfield will be close, the demographics are exactly the type that would give Baird another shot. It's not a old-school Labor or very socially liberal area. It is a moderate mix of city commuters, generally slightly skewed to the wealthier and educated end. It's a bit like Bulimba/Brisbane Central being underwhelming in comparison to state-wide swing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Current Prediction

TPP
Coalition: 53.6%
ALP: 46.4%

Seats
Coalition: 51
ALP: 39
Other: 3

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This kind of demonstrates the point about the Coalition being able to hold metro seats on smaller margins whilst losing regional seats in bigger ones

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I was having a discussion with a friend in the NSW Party this afternoon and said that while I think there was never really much of a chance of us winning, we've blown some pretty decent opportunities.

1. Trying to demonise a genuinely popular leader generally doesn't work - Newman was hated and Napthine was a even-money bet. The last minute surge of "vote out Baird on Saturday and Abbott goes on Monday" was really clumsy and desperate.

2. The privatisation issue is effective but it wasn't argued properly. Especially since they didn't capitalise on Baird saying it was his only way of paying for Infrastructure spending.

3. The CSG argument in the regions has worked well and will make a lot of previously out of touch seats close.

I think the swing in Sydney will be comparatively small  but there will be large swings in the regions.

I'll do my final predictions tomorrow, but they have moved away from the ALP since I did the preliminary one on Sunday.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We've had three polls out tonight
- A Talleyesque 57.5-42.5 from Morgan (no one believes it)
- ReachTEL has it 54-46 with Green preferences helping Labor
- Newspoll has it as 55-45 but 52-48 on allocated preferences (collapse in the LNP vote outside of Sydney)

Long story short, the Libs will win, but no one has any idea by how much or how little.

Morgieb, the person I was speaking too was not optimistic about Granville, but fairly confident about Oatley FWIW.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My predictions - using Anton's format.

Albury - Liberal hold.
Auburn – Labor hold.
Ballina – Labor gain.
Balmain – I think the recovery of the ALP primary vote, albeit a marginal one means that this is a Labor gain. But it’ll be down to the wire.
Bankstown - Labor hold.
Barwon – National hold.
Bathurst – National hold.
Baulkham Hills - Liberal hold.
Bega - Liberal hold. But the margin will be very interesting to see.
Blacktown - Labor hold.
Blue Mountains – Labor gain.
Cabramatta - Labor hold.
Camden - Liberal hold.
Campbelltown – Seat to watch. This seat should be a Labor gain, but the re-dist has been very helpful to the Liberals… but I’ll still call this a Liberal hold, but not comfortable.
Canterbury - Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Liberal hold.
Cessnock – Labor hold.
Charlestown - Labor hold.
Clarence - National hold. Big swing.
Coffs Harbour - National hold.
Coogee – Very close. Liberal hold, but the Green vote here will be very important.
Cootamundra - National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Liberal hold.
Drummoyne – Liberal hold.
Dubbo - National hold.
East Hills – Seat to watch. The most marginal seat in the state and one that Labor should win in a canter. But something is going on in the seat and I’d be really shocked if Labor can’t swing this. I will say Labor gain, but with the pretty vile personal attacks on the ALP candidate - I think this, stunningly, will be held. 
Epping - Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold.
Gosford – Seat to watch. If Labor can swing this then it’s likely all the narrow Lib seats in and around the central coast will fall. But, very, very narrow Liberal hold.
Goulburn - Liberal hold. But the margin will be really interesting.
Granville –Seat to watch. Ugh.... this is a tough one. Really bloody though. I’m going to say Labor gain, but not at all comfortable.
Hawkesbury - Liberal hold.
Heathcote – Liberal hold.
Heffron – Labor hold.
Holsworthy – Liberal hold, but would not surprise me if Labor gets it.
Hornsby – Liberal hold.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama – After a helpful re-dist and Ward is well-liked by both sides of politics and broadly considered to be a very good local member, Liberal hold – swing will be surprisingly small.
Kogarah - Labor hold.
Ku-ring-gai - Liberal hold.
Lake Macquarie – Ind hold.
Lakemba - Labor hold.
Lane Cove – Liberal gain.
Lismore – I think the Nationals will lose this seat. The issue is to whom. Labor is very happy with their performance in the area, but the Greens are running hard and well. Again… another no guts no glory… Greens gain.
Liverpool - Labor hold.
Londonderry – Labor gain.
Macquarie Fields – Labor gain.
Maitland – Labor gain.
Manly – Liberal hold.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda – Liberal gain.
Monaro – Seat to watch (naturally) Whan is a well-known and well-liked former local member. The ground-game, especially in Queanbeyan is really strong and is the key to the seat. It’ll be closer than it should be, but Labor gain.
Mount Druitt - Labor hold.
Mulgoa – Liberal gain.
Murray - National hold.
Myall Lakes - National hold.
Newcastle – Labor hold.
Newtown – Labor win.
North Shore - Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands – National hold.
Oatley – Seat to watch. I’m hearing very mixed reports about this one. Some say the local ground game is really effective. The ALP candidate is a local nurse and the nurses are door-knocking hard. I think this seat will see a tiny comparative swing. Again, sticking my neck out… Liberal hold.
Orange - National hold.
Oxley - National hold.
Parramatta – Liberal hold. But could fall if the swing in Sydney is bigger than is being expected.
Penrith – High-profile Independent directing preferences to Labor, I don’t think the Liberals should feel at all comfortable about it, Liberal hold... but should be close.
Pittwater – Liberal hold.
Port Macquarie - National hold.
Port Stephens – Seat to watch. The expansion of this seat to the west of the highway is a mixed blessing. I think the Liberals will hold this. But it will be one to watch. 
Prospect - Labor gain.
Riverstone – Liberal hold. Large swing.
Rockdale - Labor gain.
Ryde – Liberal hold.
Seven Hills – Seat to watch. As Anton suggests, this seat is kind of a microcosm of many of the true margins in Western Sydney. If Labor wins this, then they’ll stand a good chance elsewhere and shows where swings could peak. Liberal win, but very tight.
Shellharbour - Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberal hold.
Strathfield – Seat to watch. This will be telling of the swing in this part of Sydney. If the swing is tiny, just pulling McKay over the line, look to Granville and Oatley. Labor gain.
Summer Hill - Labor hold.
Swansea – Labor hold.
Sydney – Independent gain.
Tamworth – Seat to watch. This is a very Independent-friendly seat and if it were anyone else, I would say this is a Nationals hold, however, CSG is very potent in the area and I think this one will fall. Independent gain.
Terrigal - Liberal hold.
The Entrance – Seat to watch. The natural dynamics of this seat suggest that this should be a Labor gain, and I think it will, but the other forces being exerted suggests this will go down to the wire again. However, if there is a strong result either way it’ll be pretty indicative.
Tweed – Seat to watch. This SHOULD be a National hold, but if the swing is on in Northern NSW, the degree will be seen here. I still think this will be a National hold.
Upper Hunter - National hold.
Vaucluse - Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Liberal hold.
Wakehurst - Liberal hold.
Wallsend - Labor hold.
Willoughby - Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - Liberal hold.
Wollongong – This is a seat to watch – The Independent is being supported by the popular Mayor, but I doubt will be able to carry the same electoral weight. Hay has had a target on her back for years, but she always seems to survive.
Wyong – Labor gain

TOTALS:
Liberal - 40
National - 14
(Coalition - 54)
Labor - 35
Green - 1
Independent - 3

TPP - 54.4 - 45.6%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I should also put my ranges in here.

Coalition
Min: 49 Max: 57

Labor
Min: 33 Max: 40

Greens
Min: 0 Max: 3

Independents
Min: 2 Max: 4

My seats to watch - key seats - (more to do with what these races might be telling about the broader story)
Tamworth
The Entrance
Wollongong
Strathfield
Gosford
Tweed
Seven Hills
Oatley
Monaro
Lismore
Granville
East Hills
Campbelltown
Ballina

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Exit Polls

7News/ReachTEL
LNP: 54%
ALP: 46%

Galaxy
LNP: 55%
ALP: 45%

It should be noted that exit polls are still being worked on in Australia for accuracy. It tends to be if they get close to the result, it's accidental.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Galaxy also says a Liberal win. Not sure on the vote, but there's apparently a 11% swing in regional NSW, and a 8% swing in Sydney.

Hurry up ABC!

I have a feeling that the Sydney swings will be biggest in the safe seats - both Labor and Liberal. It feels very much like SA, where the government was able minimise the swings in the marginal seats.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Queanbeyan isn't in yet... hold your horses on Monaro.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmm - looks like Queanbeyan is not turning out as strong...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The current count on the ABC is still an ALP v. National one, so it's too early to call, and Antony Green makes some good points in the link below.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/ballina-and-lismore-updates.html

That said, the National primary vote is very high.

Anthony thinks it's tight, but the database is kind of unprepared for this outcome so the projected result on ABC isn't correct.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As for the other seats still in play, it seems like the Liberals will hold on to Gosford fairly easily while The Entrance is still close.

It should end up being around 55 seats for the Coalition in the end, so very similar to the scale of Bob Carr's re-elections.

Gosford was always going to be a tough ask for Labor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The No Land Tax party's candidate in the electorate of Bega apparently died in 1945: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-31/no-tax-party-bega-candidate-may-not-be-alive/6361410

That's probably the case for a lot of the population of the Bega Valley.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor claiming both Gosford and The Entrance... risky in my mind, considering the lead in Gosford is 18 votes and TE is 138.