New South Wales State Election, 2015

[lilTommy]

How is it possible for someone to be both "hard left" and also an anti-gay bigoted religious freak??? In the rest of the civilized world you are never considered leftwing if you are no gay-positive. What is it with Australia?

In Canada if you opposed gay marriage you would be a pariah and face expulsion from the NDP (the sister party to the Australian Labor Party) and also from the liberal party. The only party in Canada that would not expel an MP for being anti-gay would be the Conservative party and even they are backpedal ling like crazy on the social conservative stuff.

Why does Australia stand alone in terms of being so retrograde on gay rights compared to the other Anglo countries like Canada, the UK, New Zealand and these days most parts of the U.S. as well?

Do you understand that one's views on social issues do not dictate whether one is left or right wing?

As far as I know, the NDP is the only 'mainstream' socialist party in the Anglosphere to hold such intolerance to social conservatism. All other Labour parties, not just the ALP but also NZ and UK Labour have social conservatives in their ranks and one is just as entitled to be pro-life and anti-gay marriage as one is entitled to be pro-choice and pro-gay rights.
It's not the ALP that's the problem, it's the NDP! You guys are the ones with a bizarre and inequitable stance on these issues. But what more can you expect from a joke party which has no chance of winning a federal election.
The union movement in Australia remains steadfast!

I'm also interested to know what you mean by "civilised". Are you racist as well?

Well that escalated quickly...
The NDP does not have the same history as the ALP and UKLabour of being big tent progressive governing parties; the the CCF (the original party that became the NDP in the 60s) was always a Socialist, Social Democratic party but that being vilified in North America due to the Mccarthy-red scare american influence limited the parties appeal outside of select provinces and demographics.
The NDP would be the left-wing faction of the ALP, that is the best comparison.

Armand Duval is correct, the closest comparison would be the Liberals who were a big tent progressive party but not at all Social Democratic, they were/are the Democrats of Canada.

BUT recently most leaders of Labour/SD parties are socially progressive as well (so Pro-SSM Pro-life)

Back to NSW, is even SSM marriage an election issue? has it been?

[lilTommy]

I've read a number of posts predicting an ALP win, what makes people believe this?... is it common place in NSW to elect only a one-term government? the ALP was in power from 1995-2011, is the Liberal government that bad?
Is NSW traditionally an ALP state? correct me if i'm wrong here, I believe that Victoria and SA are considered stronger for the ALP, given their election into government in Victoria after only being in opposition for 1 term (with what I've read a weak leader but also helped by a bad Liberal government) earlier this month (or was it November) and STILL being the government in SA.

[lilTommy]

I have a question:

In other anglo countries such as the Canada, the US and Great Britain, inner city areas that "gentrify" still tend to vote solidly for non-conservative parties - such as electing Democrats to the House of Representatives  in the US, electing Labour or occasionally LibDem MPs in the UK anbd electing Liberals and New Democrats in Canada.

It depends on the type of people who are moving in during gentrification. You have the sort of people who work in the FIRE section of the economy, and then you have the artsy, academic and public sector types (bohos and hipsters as convenient stereotypes). The two groups will vote very differently.

If you look at inner London, you have seats like Battersea, Putney, and the Fulham part of Chelsea and Fulham which were traditionally solid Labour but have become Conservative over time as the City set take over. You also have seats like Richmond, where one set of gentrifiers have started to displace the other, resulting in a formerly Lib Dem seat becoming safely Tory last time against the expected trend. On the other hand, you have traditional upper middle-class bluestocking seats (Cambridge, Bristol West, Sheffield Hallam, Manchester Withington) which were safely Conservative pre-Thatcher but are now unwinnable for the party.

From a CDN perspective, and to add to what ObserverIE said, the Urban cores are very Liberal/NDP... they don't just vote Liberal, Different neighbourhoods based on income, ethnicity vote differntly. here Candidates and policies are also in play. In Vancouver (the DT only, not the east side which is solid NSP) you have the very NDP friendly West End vs the wealthier but socially progressive Liberal voting Yaletown and Coal Harbour. Toronto (I know more about) You have areas like Trinity-Bellwoods and Palmerston, The Annex and University and Kensington which tend to vote more towards the NDP due to the "artsy, academic and public sector types (bohos and hipsters as convenient stereotypes)" where as the waterfront communities, St. Lawrence, Cabbagetown tend to swing liberal as these areas are more professional and well off. Regent Park/St. Jamestown used to be Liberal, they are now trending NDP these are your low income, high immigrant communities. BUT candidates and policies play a role, the University/Kensington and Regent Park/St.Jamestown swung Liberal during the lasts provincial election for a number of mostly policy reasons. The By-election in the DT riding of Trinity-Spadina was an example of candidates, in 2011 the riding went heavily NDP winning everywhere (including the more Liberal waterfront) but a "star" liberal and general liberal momentum won big in strong areas of the waterfront and also swung the University, The Annex and Kensington areas.
The point is, the wealthier areas vote Liberal here where it sounds like they would vote Liberal in Australia (even though the Canadian Liberals are moderate centrist while more staunchly conservative in AUS) the urban cores in CA tend to, if your fiscally conservative, vote Liberal no one is caught dead admitting they vote Conservative

[lilTommy]

Is that more of a conservative prediction morgieb? With those numbers being so tight on electorates, it wouldn't take much for Labor to swing into government as they did in Queensland no? if they do even marginally better then expected, in particular in one region or another. As you mention say Rural NSW if they pick up on the anti-CSG vote or in the Mortgage belt if there is an unexpected swing.