Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I pretty much agree with most people here: Huge swing to the ALP, but the LNP remain slightly ahead on TPP and retain a majority of seats. Newman to lose in Ashgrove.

If Newman does lose in Ashgrove, who do you think is likely to replace him as Premier?

Most likely either Jeff Seeney (Deputy Premier) or Tim Nicholls (Treasurer).

On another note, Gladstone MLA Liz Cunningham is retiring after 20 years, meaning Labor has another seat they will pick up this year. I sincerely doubt the Cunningham-endorsed independent will poll strongly enough to threaten Labor.

[morgieb]

I pretty much agree with most people here: Huge swing to the ALP, but the LNP remain slightly ahead on TPP and retain a majority of seats. Newman to lose in Ashgrove.

If Newman does lose in Ashgrove, who do you think is likely to replace him as Premier?

Springborg to finally get another go!

Nicholls would be their smartest choice IMO, a country bumpkin like Seeney or Springborg won't fly well with urban LNP voters.

[Barnes]

As an aside, Katter's party admitted it wasn't ready for the election and would try to run as many candidates as it can.  It should be rather amusing to watch them crash.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Some historical context for you courtesy of poll bludger...

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So the first time there has been an election ANYWHERE in Australia in January in 102 years and on the mainland in 140 years.

The nature of Newman's strategy is being made pretty bloody clear by the timeline he's put in place. He's chosen the shortest time possible under the law for the processes of the election - 5 days for the close of rolls (ie, since that will make it a Saturday, in reality it'll be Friday - so 4days to get all new and re-located voters on the rolls... and QLD has instituted a voter ID rule too... yay) when it could have been seven and the requirement for all nominations for seats to be completed in 8 days (note that the LNP still have three seats without candidates and the ALP have 4 (although, out of those 7 seats, only one is considered to be competitive)) when it could have been eighteen days.

[BaconBacon96]

It's a somewhat undemocratic move really. Seems the minor parties will struggle to get their candidates on the ballot. Family First for example haven't filed any candidates yet and they always run in Queensland elections.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's a somewhat undemocratic move really. Seems the minor parties will struggle to get their candidates on the ballot. Family First for example haven't filed any candidates yet and they always run in Queensland elections.

Yeah, as noted Katter isn't ready... but let's be honest, they were never going to be.

[Barnes]

This brings up an interesting discussion about the minor parties. How do you guys think the crossbench (KAP, PUP, inds, etc) will look following the election?

[BaconBacon96]

This brings up an interesting discussion about the minor parties. How do you guys think the crossbench (KAP, PUP, inds, etc) will look following the election?

To start with the KAP, I get the sense that while their vote statewide will largely collapse, they might be able to hold the two seats they won last time (Ray Hopper is a goner though), simply because both of them are in that traditional Katter area. Any swings against them up there might be cancelled out by the swing against the LNP.

The ex-Palmer MPs are going to both lose their seats. Wellington should hold on. Twelve months ago I would have said PUP could pick up several seats but now I think they will struggle to pick up any. Maybe they will get lucky somewhere.

Also, has anyone else noticed that in the last federal election the PUP did particularly strongly on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts? I noticed it looking back at the results.

[Talleyrand]

This brings up an interesting discussion about the minor parties. How do you guys think the crossbench (KAP, PUP, inds, etc) will look following the election?

I don't think PUP will win any seats. I think the KAP might hold onto the two seats they won in 2012 if they're serious about concentrating their resources regionally. I also expect Peter Wellington to hold on.

Obviously there will be some surprises, but this would be tentative guess.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Part of the problem with this election is that the smaller parties (despite what PUP has said) were not ready for an election this soon. But at the same time, you see some polling that suggests this has the signs of a protest electorate all over it. A majority say that the LNP don't deserve to be re-elected, but at the same time, say that the ALP doesn't deserve Government yet. It means a lot of protest votes floating around... but if the usual recipients of those votes aren't in the mix... it makes the outcome and the possible cross-bench make-up really, really hard to figure out.

[Barnes]

I agree that there should be a pretty considerable protest vote, whether or not it's rightly deserved. Beyond my own political persuasion, I can understand why a lot of people wonder why Labor should be returned to government after being so totally decimated just two and a half years ago. That said, the protest voters don't really have a united front to go to, so their effect will be unevenly distributed and, like Polnit said, have unpredictable results.

[BaconBacon96]

The Greens might get an upswell in support as well actually, perhaps from that protest vote. They seem to have bounced back in polling after their drop in vote last federal election.

[morgieb]

KAP to retain their two seats but do  all else, PUP won't do anything now given how much they're imploding. I think Wellington, Douglas and Foley will win out of independents. Pauline will poll well, but not enough to really threaten the LNP's hold on the seat.

[Talleyrand]

ReachTel has it at 50-50, from 51-49 Labor last time.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/07/reachtel-50-50-in-queensland/

[MaxQue]

KAP to retain their two seats but do  all else, PUP won't do anything now given how much they're imploding. I think Wellington, Douglas and Foley will win out of independents. Pauline will poll well, but not enough to really threaten the LNP's hold on the seat.

Is Pauline, Pauline Hanson of One Nation fame?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

KAP to retain their two seats but do  all else, PUP won't do anything now given how much they're imploding. I think Wellington, Douglas and Foley will win out of independents. Pauline will poll well, but not enough to really threaten the LNP's hold on the seat.

Is Pauline, Pauline Hanson of One Nation fame?

Yup

ReachTel has it at 50-50, from 51-49 Labor last time.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/07/reachtel-50-50-in-queensland/

Well - that 51-49 was overly positive for the ALP - but there is a massive caveat on pretty much all polling during this race. There are a LOT of people on holiday still and there's a reason why polling stops in Australia in mid-December and doesn't start up until late January. Yes, there's not much usually going on, but at the same time there aren't enough people at home and you can't easily adjust the data adequately.

[Barnes]

Antony Green's Legislative Assembly calculator is up and running - start swinging, everyone!

[Barnes]

BTW, earlier today Deputy Labor Leader and member for Mackay, Tim Mulherin, announced his retirement.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

BTW, earlier today Deputy Labor Leader and member for Mackay, Tim Mulherin, announced his retirement.

They have to be incredibly confident for that to have happened...

[Barnes]

BTW, earlier today Deputy Labor Leader and member for Mackay, Tim Mulherin, announced his retirement.

They have to be incredibly confident for that to have happened...

It struck me as odd as well, but apparently Mulherin has been considering retiring for a long while and the early election forced his hand.

[Talleyrand]

BTW, earlier today Deputy Labor Leader and member for Mackay, Tim Mulherin, announced his retirement.

They have to be incredibly confident for that to have happened...

It struck me as odd as well, but apparently Mulherin has been considering retiring for a long while and the early election forced his hand.

His father passed away late last year, and he's taking care of his mother while holding off cardiac surgery.

The seat I am most interested in (besides Ashgrove ) is Cook in the Cape York peninsula. It's a traditionally Labor seat (held by Labor even during the Bjelke-Peterson years)  and the LNP only has a 3.43% margin. However, I read that some polling has shown the LNP leading in the seat due to the popularity of the local member combined with a limited swing to Labor in the Far North overall. Yet on paper, it seems like it should be an easy Labor gain, and the Labor candidate is indigenous, which should help with the huge native vote in the seat.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

[Barnes]

BTW, earlier today Deputy Labor Leader and member for Mackay, Tim Mulherin, announced his retirement.

They have to be incredibly confident for that to have happened...

It struck me as odd as well, but apparently Mulherin has been considering retiring for a long while and the early election forced his hand.

His father passed away late last year, and he's taking care of his mother while holding off cardiac surgery.

The seat I am most interested in (besides Ashgrove ) is Cook in the Cape York peninsula. It's a traditionally Labor seat (held by Labor even during the Bjelke-Peterson years)  and the LNP only has a 3.43% margin. However, I read that some polling has shown the LNP leading in the seat due to the popularity of the local member combined with a limited swing to Labor in the Far North overall. Yet on paper, it seems like it should be an easy Labor gain, and the Labor candidate is indigenous, which should help with the huge native vote in the seat.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Ah, I see, quite understandable then.  I haven't really picked seats to watch yet (besides the obvious Ashgrove ), but I'll do a little post when I have.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ashgrove is a special case and a LOT of attention will be placed on it...

There are four I'll be looking at, purely because of the different mix of seats and where things might be going.

- Bulimba
- Whitsunday
- Waterford
- Greenslopes

[Talleyrand]

Ashgrove is a special case and a LOT of attention will be placed on it...

There are four I'll be looking at, purely because of the different mix of seats and where things might be going.

- Bulimba
- Whitsunday
- Waterford
- Greenslopes

I would be very surprised if Labor didn't pick up Bulimba, Waterford, and Greenslopes. If they somehow manage to gain Whitsunday, they're probably headed for an extremely good night.

[morgieb]

Ashgrove is a special case and a LOT of attention will be placed on it...

There are four I'll be looking at, purely because of the different mix of seats and where things might be going.

- Bulimba
- Whitsunday
- Waterford
- Greenslopes

I would be very surprised if Labor didn't pick up Bulimba, Waterford, and Greenslopes. If they somehow manage to gain Whitsunday, they're probably headed for an extremely good night.

Yeah would agree. Greenslopes could be interesting as the swing was very small in 2012 and Dick's running in Woodridge so it's possible the swing could be tempered by the loss of his personal vote, but in this election it's hard to see the LNP holding on to seats that marginal.