Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
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  Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
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Author Topic: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015  (Read 30140 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #250 on: January 31, 2015, 10:48:35 PM »

Wellington has also pledged support to help Labor form Government.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #251 on: January 31, 2015, 10:51:52 PM »

Why do people think Foley's going to win in Maryborough? According to the ABC site, he's coming third.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #252 on: January 31, 2015, 10:57:38 PM »

Why do people think Foley's going to win in Maryborough? According to the ABC site, he's coming third.

They seem to think that Foley will do well out of pre-polls and postals and leap-frog Saunders into second. I think it's a long-shot.
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morgieb
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« Reply #253 on: January 31, 2015, 11:07:21 PM »

Why do people think Foley's going to win in Maryborough? According to the ABC site, he's coming third.

They seem to think that Foley will do well out of pre-polls and postals and leap-frog Saunders into second. I think it's a long-shot.
Preferences might also save him - there was a large PUP/One Nation vote which Anthony Green thought might push Foley over Saunders and presumably win the seat on Labor's preferences.

That's too hard to call. Whitsunday and Mansfield are 50/50, the others look safe unless something weird happens.
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morgieb
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« Reply #254 on: January 31, 2015, 11:10:10 PM »

Also given the school/uni/etc. holidays factor postals might not be so LNP-leaning as what one might expect. There's also the voter ID factor.
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YL
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« Reply #255 on: February 01, 2015, 04:21:13 AM »

Why do people think Foley's going to win in Maryborough? According to the ABC site, he's coming third.

They seem to think that Foley will do well out of pre-polls and postals and leap-frog Saunders into second. I think it's a long-shot.
Preferences might also save him - there was a large PUP/One Nation vote which Anthony Green thought might push Foley over Saunders and presumably win the seat on Labor's preferences.

ABC currently has the first preferences as
Maddern (LNP) 7962
Saunders (Lab) 6891
Foley (Ind) 5837
Anderson (Palmer) 3354
Huxham (One Nation) 1890
Webb (Green) 616
Wattie (Ind) 261

With those figures I'd have thought it very likely that Foley would get enough preferences from the bottom four candidates to overtake Saunders.
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windjammer
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« Reply #256 on: February 01, 2015, 07:59:35 AM »

Wait, the Tony Abbot party didn't have 73 seats in the last election?
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #257 on: February 01, 2015, 08:40:34 AM »

Wait, the Tony Abbot party didn't have 73 seats in the last election?

They won 78 seats to Labor's 7 in the last election, with 63% of the TPP. Now it looks like Labor will be back in power with 44/43 seats to the LNP's 42 and 52% of the TPP. It was an incredible reversal, yes.

As for late counting, Whitsunday remains virtually deadlocked, with the LNP about 80 votes ahead, while they have a close to insurmountable lead in Mansfield. As for Maryborough, I'd still expect Foley to take it the end unless preference flow was unexpectedly awful.
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You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #258 on: February 01, 2015, 09:14:39 AM »

Wait, the Tony Abbot party didn't have 73 seats in the last election?

They won 78 seats to Labor's 7 in the last election, with 63% of the TPP. Now it looks like Labor will be back in power with 44/43 seats to the LNP's 42 and 52% of the TPP. It was an incredible reversal, yes.

Wait, the LNP got 52% of the TPP?
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #259 on: February 01, 2015, 09:15:28 AM »

Wait, the Tony Abbot party didn't have 73 seats in the last election?

They won 78 seats to Labor's 7 in the last election, with 63% of the TPP. Now it looks like Labor will be back in power with 44/43 seats to the LNP's 42 and 52% of the TPP. It was an incredible reversal, yes.

Wait, the LNP got 52% of the TPP?

No, the ALP will end up getting around 51-52% of the TPP, it seems.
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Barnes
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« Reply #260 on: February 01, 2015, 04:19:10 PM »

It's looking increasingly likely that the ALP will end up with 44 seats - one short of an outright majority. Wellington has already made it clear he will not work with the LNP, so I think a Labor government will be in in a short while.
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Barnes
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« Reply #261 on: February 01, 2015, 06:43:33 PM »
« Edited: February 01, 2015, 06:52:53 PM by Barnes »

The LNP caucus is set to meet at 10:30 Tuesday morning to elect the leadership. Jeff Seeney is not contesting. Fiona Simpson, the present Speaker of the Assembly, looks likely to run for leader.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #262 on: February 01, 2015, 06:45:39 PM »

Also

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-02/queensland-election-lnp-leadership-fiona-simpson-nicholls/6061514
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Barnes
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« Reply #263 on: February 01, 2015, 07:21:40 PM »
« Edited: February 01, 2015, 08:24:41 PM by Barnes »

Labor's campaign director has said recounts in seven seats are likely. Those are: Gaven, Redlands, Mansfield, Mount Ommaney, Whitsunday, Pumicestone and Maryborough.

EDIT: I should add that there are approximately 308,000 postal votes to be counted as well.
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Barnes
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« Reply #264 on: February 01, 2015, 09:07:27 PM »

Ok, the party room meeting for tomorrow has been called off because of recounts and doubts over whether Seeney had the authority to call the meeting at all.  Lol.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #265 on: February 01, 2015, 09:45:42 PM »
« Edited: February 01, 2015, 09:55:40 PM by Talleyrand »

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/24765

Ben Raue has a good rundown on seven close seats (Maryborough, Whitsunday, Mansfield, Glass House, Redlands, Mount Ommaney, and Ferny Grove). The ALP needs 3/7 of these to form a government, but it's currently on track to win only one of them.

He's a bit friendly to the ALP in this analysis but it's worth reading anyway.
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Vosem
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« Reply #266 on: February 01, 2015, 09:56:24 PM »

I had not followed this election, and having read just a bit about it I feel an intense urge to bang my head on my desk.

I hope allying with the ALP wipes out the KAP.
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Barnes
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« Reply #267 on: February 01, 2015, 09:59:15 PM »

I had not followed this election, and having read just a bit about it I feel an intense urge to bang my head on my desk.

I hope allying with the ALP wipes out the KAP.

Katter's Party has it's roots in the old DLP, which while being socially conservative, has always carried a very Labor economic program.  An alliance might harm them, we'll see, but they aren't diametrically opposed on the economic front.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #268 on: February 01, 2015, 10:08:17 PM »

I had not followed this election, and having read just a bit about it I feel an intense urge to bang my head on my desk.

I hope allying with the ALP wipes out the KAP.

QLD is a good example of what most first-term Governments don't understand. Your first term is not your mandate, it's about the removal of the mandate from the other lot. Your use your first term to earn your second based on your agenda.

They brought this on themselves.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #269 on: February 02, 2015, 12:25:15 AM »

I had not followed this election, and having read just a bit about it I feel an intense urge to bang my head on my desk.

I hope allying with the ALP wipes out the KAP.

QLD is a good example of what most first-term Governments don't understand. Your first term is not your mandate, it's about the removal of the mandate from the other lot. Your use your first term to earn your second based on your agenda.

They brought this on themselves.

To be fair, when the outgoing government no longer holds enough seats to form a legitimate opposition, you might be tempted to overreach.

The fact that they persisted in doing so, after it being made clear that people weren't happy (see: by-election results) only illustrates a simple fact about Newman, which is that he makes up his mind first and looks at evidence afterwards.  It's how he approaches policy, and you can sure bet that it's how he approaches campaign strategy.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #270 on: February 02, 2015, 02:44:22 AM »

Apparently Pauline Hanson is doing very well out of preferences... she's unlikely to pull it out.. thank God.
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morgieb
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« Reply #271 on: February 02, 2015, 04:17:57 AM »

Apparently Pauline Hanson is doing very well out of preferences... she's unlikely to pull it out.. thank God.
Yeah the early booths were pretty Hanson friendly IIRC. Still could be too close for comfort.

Although if I'm being honest, her being in Parliament might at least be entertaining. Particularly given Labor can avoid her to get a workable majority.

Gaven also looks interesting, though I have NFI where the booths are.
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Hifly
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« Reply #272 on: February 02, 2015, 04:31:22 AM »

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/24765

Ben Raue has a good rundown on seven close seats (Maryborough, Whitsunday, Mansfield, Glass House, Redlands, Mount Ommaney, and Ferny Grove). The ALP needs 3/7 of these to form a government, but it's currently on track to win only one of them.

He's a bit friendly to the ALP in this analysis but it's worth reading anyway.

The Labor candidate in Ferny Grove, Mark Furner, is the former senator for Qld who lost his seat in 2013. It's great to see him back in politics.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #273 on: February 02, 2015, 01:00:16 PM »

A Pauline Hanson win at this election would be akin to Clive Palmer's win in the 2013 federal.

That said, it looks like the most ALP friendly booths have yet to be counted for the two candidate preferred vote, and the preferences from those should be a good deal less friendly than those which are already in. Ian Rickuss should have a low single digit margin for the LNP when all is said and done.
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Smid
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« Reply #274 on: February 02, 2015, 08:42:48 PM »

A Pauline Hanson win at this election would be akin to Clive Palmer's win in the 2013 federal.

Yes, in that they would both be delivered to Parliament on the back of Labor/Greens preferences.

As it stands, from what I can see, she has received more preferences than the LNP in all bar one booth, including four booths where she has received a majority of preferences (including exhausted votes). Every booth won by the LNP on a 2CP basis has been because of a high LNP primary vote and no thanks at all to Labor and Green voters and booth workers on the day.
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