Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:09:16 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 13
Author Topic: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015  (Read 30138 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #125 on: January 29, 2015, 04:27:23 AM »

Also we should be expecting state-wide polls from Newspoll, ReachTEL and Galaxy in the next 36 hours.
Logged
Knives
solopop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,460
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #126 on: January 29, 2015, 07:39:53 AM »

If the ALP wins or even comes close I think it's time for Tony to start packing his things, there is no excuse for a loss here. Seriously, what a disaster for the Libs.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #127 on: January 29, 2015, 07:42:36 AM »

If the ALP wins or even comes close I think it's time for Tony to start packing his things, there is no excuse for a loss here. Seriously, what a disaster for the Libs.

Yeah, if ALP comes anywhere close to 40 seats (which I highly doubt), he's going to have a LOT of explaining to do, especially how he sucked the oxygen out of the room and made himself a national laughingstock for almost the last week of the campaign with the Philip nonsense.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #128 on: January 29, 2015, 06:55:01 PM »

Labor Leader Annastacia Palaszcuzk made a disastrous gaffe yesterday. When asked the GST rate, she was unable to recall its rate (10%). A very strong tool for the LNP to use against Labor in the final dash.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/queensland-election-preview-gaffe-eases-pressure-on-newman-20150129-1311wv.html
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #129 on: January 29, 2015, 07:32:18 PM »
« Edited: January 29, 2015, 07:35:59 PM by Senator Polnut »

Labor Leader Annastacia Palaszcuzk made a disastrous gaffe yesterday. When asked the GST rate, she was unable to recall its rate (10%). A very strong tool for the LNP to use against Labor in the final dash.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/queensland-election-preview-gaffe-eases-pressure-on-newman-20150129-1311wv.html

Oh calm down... it was hardly a disastrous gaffe. She slipped up, it was a rapid-fire quiz on a radio station. It wasn't an election-changer. although it might hurt them with some flighty undecideds. Shorten's response was great "well, she doesn't represent a party that want to put the GST on household essentials". But I would be saying the same if Newman had said it, this has been the only slip-up in a pretty decent campaign.

Trust me once the polling starts to come out this evening, this story will die.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,621
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #130 on: January 30, 2015, 01:11:05 AM »

I don't think the GST thing is that huge of a gaffe.

That said, I think most people should know that it's 10%. I can name the rate on top of my head, then again given I'm a training accountant it would be bad if they didn't Tongue
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #131 on: January 30, 2015, 03:52:54 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2015, 03:59:11 AM by Senator Polnut »

First poll is out and it's 52-48 LNP... from ReachTEL

But if you dig a little deeper, those are numbers based on 2012 preference flows (it should be noted that the GRN -> ALP rate was under 60% and virtually no one was directing preferences to the ALP...) they're being very generous to the LNP and based on primaries of 41.5-37.2-7.5 (GRN) ... that number would be closer to 50-50 maybe 51-49 at worst.

Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #132 on: January 30, 2015, 05:11:41 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2015, 06:16:12 AM by Talleyrand »

Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/queensland-election-minus-one-day/
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #133 on: January 30, 2015, 06:34:23 AM »

Newspoll is out...

Also 52-48 (also based on 2012 preferences)

Primaries
LNP: 41%
ALP: 37%
GRN: 7%

Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction (net)
Newman: -23
Palaszczuk: -2

Better Premier
Newman: 43%
Palaszczuk: 42%
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,621
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #134 on: January 30, 2015, 06:59:35 AM »

Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/queensland-election-minus-one-day/

I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooropilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #135 on: January 30, 2015, 07:23:24 AM »

Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/queensland-election-minus-one-day/

I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooropilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.

In addition to the leafy suburbs like those you mentioned, it seems like a lot of the regional areas along the northern coast seem to be quite marginal too, like Mirani and Whitsunday. I remember early on in the 2013 campaign, the ALP had some hopes for gaining seats like Herbert and Dawson when the campaign began. But yeah, the fluidity in the state makes it really interesting to watch, which is probably a major part of the reason why this election (while likely not being a change of government) has attracted more attention than the more anti-climatic Victorian election last year.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #136 on: January 30, 2015, 07:29:09 AM »

Aaaand Galaxy

52-48 TPP (based on 2012) 

Primaries
LNP: 41%
ALP: 37%
GRN: 8%

Preferred Premier
Newman: 44%
Palaszczuk: 45%


Ashgrove

TPP
Newman: 45%
Jones: 55%

Primaries
Newman: 42%
Jones: 48%
GRN: 8%
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #137 on: January 30, 2015, 07:40:27 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2015, 07:42:10 AM by Senator Polnut »

Preliminary prediction

TPP
LNP: 51.1%
ALP: 48.9%

Seats
LNP: 45
ALP: 38
Crossbench: 6

But a hung parliament is a very, very real possibility.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #138 on: January 30, 2015, 07:43:02 AM »

So three virtually identical polls in all respects (primary vote, two party preferred vote, satisfaction, and preferred premier).

Not sure what to make of that, but I'll do a (traditionally pessimistic) prediction here. Tongue

TPP
LNP: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

Seats
LNP- 56 (RIP Newman though)
ALP- 27
Crossbench- 6 (Knuth, Katter, Wellington, Foley, Boyd, Butler)
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #139 on: January 30, 2015, 07:47:55 AM »

So three virtually identical polls in all respects (primary vote, two party preferred vote, satisfaction, and preferred premier).

Not sure what to make of that, but I'll do a (traditionally pessimistic) prediction here. Tongue

TPP
LNP: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

Seats
LNP- 56 (RIP Newman though)
ALP- 27
Crossbench- 6 (Knuth, Katter, Wellington, Foley, Boyd, Butler)

If that's what you will feel will happen... fine - but ...

Logged
Hifly
hifly15
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,937


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #140 on: January 30, 2015, 08:37:22 AM »

So three virtually identical polls in all respects (primary vote, two party preferred vote, satisfaction, and preferred premier).

Not sure what to make of that, but I'll do a (traditionally pessimistic) prediction here. Tongue

TPP
LNP: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

Seats
LNP- 56 (RIP Newman though)
ALP- 27
Crossbench- 6 (Knuth, Katter, Wellington, Foley, Boyd, Butler)

If that's what you will feel will happen... fine - but ...



Polnut you've made some awful predictions in the past as have most of us so give him a break!
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #141 on: January 30, 2015, 08:44:58 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2015, 08:49:24 AM by Senator Polnut »

So three virtually identical polls in all respects (primary vote, two party preferred vote, satisfaction, and preferred premier).

Not sure what to make of that, but I'll do a (traditionally pessimistic) prediction here. Tongue

TPP
LNP: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

Seats
LNP- 56 (RIP Newman though)
ALP- 27
Crossbench- 6 (Knuth, Katter, Wellington, Foley, Boyd, Butler)

If that's what you will feel will happen... fine - but ...



Polnut you've made some awful predictions in the past as have most of us so give him a break!

Christ man, LET IT GO!!

It it's a tongue-in-cheek (calm down, it's not sexual) response to Talley always being deliberately pessimistic. 
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #142 on: January 30, 2015, 11:05:01 AM »

I can see undecideds going for the ALP, they've had a good campaign.
Logged
BaconBacon96
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,678
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #143 on: January 30, 2015, 03:17:49 PM »

Newman didn't turn up to a candidate's forum last night and now it's splashed all over the front page of The North West News, the local newspaper.

He's done.
Logged
Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #144 on: January 30, 2015, 06:16:23 PM »

This should be quite a fun election night. I look forward to the contributions in here. Cheesy

Final Prediction

2PP:
LNP - 52%
ALP - 48%

Seats:
LNP - 46
ALP - 38
Others - 5

Newman is a goner, it appears. That alone will make this a good night.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #145 on: January 30, 2015, 09:12:53 PM »

Newman to lose Ashgrove  52.7-47.3

Final prediction shortly... ugh, this is really tricky.
Logged
Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #146 on: January 30, 2015, 09:20:36 PM »

Newman to lose Ashgrove  52.7-47.3

Final prediction shortly... ugh, this is really tricky.

I agree. Admittedly, I'm not familiar enough with the individual electorates to make a full prediction, so I relied on the ABC's calculator for the seat totals. I think if the LNP stays in on my projected totals, they might have a slightly higher seat count.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,621
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #147 on: January 30, 2015, 09:28:21 PM »

I'll say 51.5/48.5. LNP to hang on to their majority, but it won't be 100% clear by the end of the night.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #148 on: January 30, 2015, 09:50:42 PM »

Final prediction

TPP
LNP: 51.4%
ALP: 48.6%

Seat count
LNP: 47
ALP: 37
Cross-bench: 5

But this could easily go either way - we could see the LNP get to 50-51 or move into hung parliament territory. It all comes down to where the swings are and how the exhaustion rate operates. FTR, I think the TPP based on the primaries in the polling is over-stating the LNP's position - particularly for key marginals. Frankly, this one is much harder to call than SA.
Logged
checkers
Not Great Bob
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 270
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #149 on: January 30, 2015, 09:54:01 PM »

Well, I voted.

Anyway, I'll predict something like:

2PP
LNP: 52.2%
ALP: 47.9%

LNP - 45
ALP - 38
Crossbench - 6

Newman to lose Ashgrove but probably reenter parliament on a by-election.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 13  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.065 seconds with 13 queries.