Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:44:36 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13
Author Topic: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015  (Read 30141 times)
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #225 on: January 31, 2015, 07:38:15 AM »

Annastacia is speaking now in Inala, where she secured a 19% swing in her favor.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #226 on: January 31, 2015, 07:40:41 AM »

This is arguably the third election Abbott has cost the Coalition. He needs to go.

That said, given the nature of Pretince's electorate, she'll be one of the first to sour on him.
Logged
Platypus
hughento
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,478
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #227 on: January 31, 2015, 07:52:28 AM »

"Is he going to be challenged?"

Any answer other than 'No' is politicianese for 'Yes'. She went with "Let's see what he says on Monday."
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #228 on: January 31, 2015, 07:55:22 AM »

"Is he going to be challenged?"

Any answer other than 'No' is politicianese for 'Yes'. She went with "Let's see what he says on Monday."
Yeah, that's one of the most blantant bits of spin I've heard.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #229 on: January 31, 2015, 07:59:00 AM »

The LNP has actually won the primary vote in 50 electorates, so preferences changed a lot of final results this time, contrasting heavily with 2012, where the primary winner won the TPP in every seat.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #230 on: January 31, 2015, 08:20:26 AM »

This is almost worth for Abbott than losing NSW and QLD were for Gillard. For Gillard, the ALP were never gonna win. SA, Vic and QLD were all entirely winnable for the Coalition.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #231 on: January 31, 2015, 10:14:02 AM »



Sunday Mail's latest issue.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #232 on: January 31, 2015, 12:26:02 PM »

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #233 on: January 31, 2015, 01:28:44 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2015, 01:34:10 PM by Sibboleth »



Provisional results map. Nice to see Bundaberg return to the fold. Cairns as well, but that was a given with any swingback.
Logged
Ebowed
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,597


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #234 on: January 31, 2015, 02:55:08 PM »

I slept well!  So, 3 seats undecided, with 44 for Labor, 40 for Liberal Nationalists, and 3 other.  It's technically too close to call but I am feeling pretty good about this one!

Also-

Logged
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #235 on: January 31, 2015, 02:59:48 PM »

People more well-versed in Australian politics than I: What are the chances Abbott's head rolls after this? He really is an albatross on their party. Also, who would take his place as PM? Turnbull? Bishop?
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #236 on: January 31, 2015, 03:33:51 PM »

I think Abbott is living on borrowed time, but we should see how the staking horse does first. Nightmare scenario for the LNP is for a close leadership to divide the frontbench but Abbott to survive.

Bishop I feel is a more likely choice - Turnbull is utterly despised by half the party.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #237 on: January 31, 2015, 03:42:06 PM »

I think Abbott is living on borrowed time, but we should see how the staking horse does first. Nightmare scenario for the LNP is for a close leadership to divide the frontbench but Abbott to survive.

Bishop I feel is a more likely choice - Turnbull is utterly despised by half the party.

Recently it seems Aussie parties have the knives out at the ready all the time... Rudd-Gillard-Rudd in the ALP while in government and now potentially something similar with Abbott and the Liberals, Any idea why that is?
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #238 on: January 31, 2015, 03:46:12 PM »

I think Abbott is living on borrowed time, but we should see how the staking horse does first. Nightmare scenario for the LNP is for a close leadership to divide the frontbench but Abbott to survive.

Bishop I feel is a more likely choice - Turnbull is utterly despised by half the party.

Recently it seems Aussie parties have the knives out at the ready all the time... Rudd-Gillard-Rudd in the ALP while in government and now potentially something similar with Abbott and the Liberals, Any idea why that is?


Its because under the Australian system it is so ridiculously easy for a party to dump an unpopular leader - all you need is a simple majority vote of caucus on 24 hours notice. If Canada had the same system the Martinites would have ousted Chretien in the late 90s when Martin's followers became a clear majority of the federal Liberal caucus.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #239 on: January 31, 2015, 04:11:07 PM »

It did used to be the LIberals that constantly staked each other out with leadership battles. The one thing going for Abbott is he lacks a Costello.
Logged
Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #240 on: January 31, 2015, 05:54:12 PM »

I dared to dream that this was possible, but even my most hopeful projections had the ALP in with a minority. I didn't want to share those on here because I really didn't think it could happen. I was pretty confident that the LNP majority would go right down to the wire, so I suppose that's something. Grin
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #241 on: January 31, 2015, 05:56:41 PM »

People more well-versed in Australian politics than I: What are the chances Abbott's head rolls after this? He really is an albatross on their party. Also, who would take his place as PM? Turnbull? Bishop?
He is toast. As for his replacement, probably a three horse race between Turnbull, Bishop or Morrison. Think Bishop is the favourite.
Logged
Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,556


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #242 on: January 31, 2015, 06:12:33 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2015, 06:14:43 PM by Barnes »

People more well-versed in Australian politics than I: What are the chances Abbott's head rolls after this? He really is an albatross on their party. Also, who would take his place as PM? Turnbull? Bishop?
He is toast. As for his replacement, probably a three horse race between Turnbull, Bishop or Morrison. Think Bishop is the favourite.

She is certainly the least divisive option to the backbenches, I would think. To be honest, either her or Malcolm wouldn't be horrendous.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #243 on: January 31, 2015, 06:45:57 PM »

If the ALP ends up forming government, would they be the smallest opposition to win an election in Australian history?

This is all still very surreal. I'm still pausing to remind myself it actually happened. By far the most extraordinary election result I've ever witnessed in my (short) life.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #244 on: January 31, 2015, 08:00:47 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2015, 08:27:48 PM by You kip if you want to... »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09I0SGfIaeo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1bYsAsIKtc

What a tangled web he weaved.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #245 on: January 31, 2015, 08:43:32 PM »

If the ALP ends up forming government, would they be the smallest opposition to win an election in Australian history?

This is all still very surreal. I'm still pausing to remind myself it actually happened. By far the most extraordinary election result I've ever witnessed in my (short) life.
Afaik it's the smallest opposition full stop (though maybe there was something odd around the turn of the century). So yes most likely.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #246 on: January 31, 2015, 08:49:29 PM »

If the ALP ends up forming government, would they be the smallest opposition to win an election in Australian history?

This is all still very surreal. I'm still pausing to remind myself it actually happened. By far the most extraordinary election result I've ever witnessed in my (short) life.
Afaik it's the smallest opposition full stop (though maybe there was something odd around the turn of the century). So yes most likely.

Amazing, amazing.

Right now the ABC projection is 43/39 ALP, with 4 still undecided.

Mansfield- ALP is barely ahead, should end up being a slight LNP win
Maryborough- The Indy will probably overtake Labor on preferences and win against LNP
Whitsunday- LNP very slightly ahead, should hold up
Redlands- The margin here would normally be safe LNP retain, but there are still a lot of booths out

I'd guess well end up with 43/42 or maybe 44/41 ALP in the end, so the ALP will have to look to Wellington and/or Foley to form government. The former has already announced he's definitely not going with the LNP.
Logged
Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,167
Australia


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: 3.11

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #247 on: January 31, 2015, 09:38:28 PM »

I think Abbott is living on borrowed time, but we should see how the staking horse does first. Nightmare scenario for the LNP is for a close leadership to divide the frontbench but Abbott to survive.

Bishop I feel is a more likely choice - Turnbull is utterly despised by half the party.

As a Liberal voter and for that matter, solid conservative, I would much prefer Bishop over Turnbull. Bishop being from my state also increases my preference.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #248 on: January 31, 2015, 09:41:57 PM »

Postals have given LNP a fairly insurmountable 51.1% of the vote in Mansfield, so you can safely call that for them; I'd also be pretty comfortable with giving them Redlands.

Assuming Whitsunday holds up the way it is and Foley pulls ahead in Maryborough, the final result will be 43/42/2/2.
Logged
Knives
solopop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,460
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #249 on: January 31, 2015, 09:48:39 PM »

Rob Katter has already said he wants to work with Labor.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 12 queries.