Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[BaconBacon96]

The LNP will be able to hold government as long as the swing against them isn't more than 29 seats. Which is a good position to start off in. Newman will probably lose his seat though, Ashgrove was never a really safe choice.

The PUP, which at one point could have easily gained several seats, will struggle to gain a seat although they might be able to pick up a rural seat somewhere. The KAP should mostly collapse in support but they might be able to hold their two seats in the Gulf Country, considering that is their support base.

[BaconBacon96]

It's a somewhat undemocratic move really. Seems the minor parties will struggle to get their candidates on the ballot. Family First for example haven't filed any candidates yet and they always run in Queensland elections.

[BaconBacon96]

This brings up an interesting discussion about the minor parties. How do you guys think the crossbench (KAP, PUP, inds, etc) will look following the election?

To start with the KAP, I get the sense that while their vote statewide will largely collapse, they might be able to hold the two seats they won last time (Ray Hopper is a goner though), simply because both of them are in that traditional Katter area. Any swings against them up there might be cancelled out by the swing against the LNP.

The ex-Palmer MPs are going to both lose their seats. Wellington should hold on. Twelve months ago I would have said PUP could pick up several seats but now I think they will struggle to pick up any. Maybe they will get lucky somewhere.

Also, has anyone else noticed that in the last federal election the PUP did particularly strongly on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts? I noticed it looking back at the results.

[BaconBacon96]

The Greens might get an upswell in support as well actually, perhaps from that protest vote. They seem to have bounced back in polling after their drop in vote last federal election.

[BaconBacon96]

Playing with the ABC calculator, it has occurred to me that there is a very good chance we might not have a government on election night. KAP and the independents will hold the balance of power, which isn't the most comforting thought.

[BaconBacon96]

@Sol, the Newman government and the Abbott government is toxic leaving a very bad condition for the LNP. Also a lot of LNP seats - after the wipeout of 2011 - they really have no business holding, and would probably be lose even if the government was reasonably popular.

Australia has its "right-wing" and "left-wing" states, but unlike the US all of them are competitive at state level.

Ahh, okay. What has the Newman government done so wrong?

They have governed in a very...aggressive style? Basically they have had a lot of controversial polices and haven't been afraid to fight for them.

[BaconBacon96]

I could see a Labor minority government supported by KAP based on the premise of not selling assets, among other things.

[BaconBacon96]

Newman didn't turn up to a candidate's forum last night and now it's splashed all over the front page of The North West News, the local newspaper.

He's done.

[BaconBacon96]

Newman behind by 11%.

[BaconBacon96]

This is just stunning.

[BaconBacon96]

ABC has Labor one off of a majority...

[BaconBacon96]

Campbell has conceded.

RIP.

[BaconBacon96]

Newman has declared his career over.

[BaconBacon96]

Why do people think Foley's going to win in Maryborough? According to the ABC site, he's coming third.

[BaconBacon96]

Looks like there might be a supplementary election in Ferny Grove.

Why? What happened there?

Apparently the PUP candidate was an undisclosed bankrupt, by which he is ineligible to stand for election, per state law.  The ECQ has referred the issue to Crown Law for legal advice.

My mum knows the guy. Ran a popular restaurant in the area and sold it suddenly. Must have had debts to pay.

And it's looking incredibly close in Lockyer. It's unlikely for Hanson but she isn't out just yet.