Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

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I pretty much agree with most people here: Huge swing to the ALP, but the LNP remain slightly ahead on TPP and retain a majority of seats. Newman to lose in Ashgrove.

If Newman does lose in Ashgrove, who do you think is likely to replace him as Premier?

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Well - that 51-49 was overly positive for the ALP - but there is a massive caveat on pretty much all polling during this race. There are a LOT of people on holiday still and there's a reason why polling stops in Australia in mid-December and doesn't start up until late January. Yes, there's not much usually going on, but at the same time there aren't enough people at home and you can't easily adjust the data adequately.

I've just been wondering how "summer school break" works down under ? Here in Europe, school stops for approximately two months, July and August. Do your schools close January and February ? And for businesses ?

Schools close from mid-December through to around Australia Day (26th of Jan). Most businesses only really close for the public holidays (though I think some close from Christmas through to New Years Day), but many workers tend to take their leave around this time, so everything slows down.

It should be interesting to see how Bulimba goes. The Coalition's margin is tiny of course, and I feel like Labor should get it back this election, but with that seat becoming more and more gentrified I wonder how it will trend in the future. This is just personal observation but I felt like whenever I went down there during the 2013 elections, all I saw were Glasson signs - though I suppose they could just be a very zealous minority

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Ahh, okay. What has the Newman government done so wrong?

If you're interested in some of the specific policies that have been controversial, I suppose it would be the public service cuts and cuts to various health programs, which meant that a lot of people lost jobs, or access to certain health programs. This is a big issue in a lot of the inner or middle ring suburban Brisbane electorates we're speculating he'll lose, including his own of Ashgrove. He's also been criticised on various civil liberties counts - the "Bikie laws", which aims to crack down of Bikie related crime by jailing all members of motorcycle gangs, and giving the Attorney-General the powers to indefinitely extend the sentences of sex offenders. This ties into the arrogant and confrontational style that everyone mentioned - when he was criticised over the sex offender law he called his critics "apologists for pedophiles".

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Obviously I can't say for certain, but my ~gut feeling~ is that Newman will probably eke out a narrow victory there.

In other news, One Nation is apparently "poling" "30 to 47%" in "some electorates".

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They're also doing fairly well in the Far North - so with that plus SEQ, they'll easily get over 20 seats.

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It appears Talley's negativity has hurt the ALP ... but considering the ALP's campaign has been so myopic, it's hardly surprising. Much like the Libs in VIC, it had a single focus - unions... bad idea and the QLD ALP is focused on asset sell-offs... Again a single issue campaign doesn't change or protect from a change of government.

It's such a terrible issue to choose, too, given that Labor actually began the sale of the assets in the first place.

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Yes good predictions! I think I pretty much agree with all of them - I haven't decided on every seat yet.

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Well, I voted.

Anyway, I'll predict something like:

2PP
LNP: 52.2%
ALP: 47.9%

LNP - 45
ALP - 38
Crossbench - 6

Newman to lose Ashgrove but probably reenter parliament on a by-election.

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I would be startled if that happens... the LNP will want to blame Newman and Abbott and move on. I'm expecting a civil war between the Libs and Nats - the Nats have been furious at Newman and the Southern Liberals for being too SE-centric ... the Ns will be trying to restore their position.

Maybe I'm just being pessimistic too. It just seems too neat that he'll just shuffle off after losing his seat. I'm probably underestimating the extent to which he's hated by his party though.

I can definitely see civil war between Nats and Libs. It's amazing how unpopular the LNP have become in regional Queensland.

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I just saw that - with the LNP on only 36. I suppose it's still early.

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I just saw that - with the LNP on only 36. I suppose it's still early.

And now they're at 42 seats. I'm thinking there may be a hung parliament, or even a Labor victory.

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This is still so surreal for me.

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Newman's speaking: "My political career is over". Never been so delighted to embarrass myself with wrong predictions.

EDIT: Beaten to it.

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Congrats, morgieb! I don't think I deserve any accolades considering as earlier today I was predicting that they'd win and Newman would be parachuted into a safe seat