Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Barnes]

As far as dates go, electorates become increasingly angry the longer politicians put off the "verdict of the people."  The LNP seems to be insisting that they're under no obligation to hold the election before June (which is true, of course), but if they continue to hold that line it'll begin to look increasingly desperate to many voters.

[Barnes]

Didn't really see this coming, but it'll be fun to have this campaign to follow if this goes through.

Yeah, Labor should have everything ready to go for an election in 2015 whenever it was called.

[Barnes]

The date has been confirmed for 31 January: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-to-be-held-on-january-31-20150105-12iduw.html

Newman will meet with the Acting Governor mid-Tuesday, and make an official announcement afterwards.

[Barnes]

Per the article in The Brisbane Times:

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As an early guess, I think the LNP will be returned with a majority between 10 to 15; I'm almost certain that Newman in a goner in Ashgrove.

[Barnes]

The ABC's site for the Queensland election (run by the great psephologist Antony Green) is up and running: http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/

An election calculator (which should be quite a bit of fun) will be up later this week.

[Barnes]

As an aside, Katter's party admitted it wasn't ready for the election and would try to run as many candidates as it can.  It should be rather amusing to watch them crash.

[Barnes]

This brings up an interesting discussion about the minor parties. How do you guys think the crossbench (KAP, PUP, inds, etc) will look following the election?

[Barnes]

I agree that there should be a pretty considerable protest vote, whether or not it's rightly deserved. Beyond my own political persuasion, I can understand why a lot of people wonder why Labor should be returned to government after being so totally decimated just two and a half years ago. That said, the protest voters don't really have a united front to go to, so their effect will be unevenly distributed and, like Polnit said, have unpredictable results.

[Barnes]

Antony Green's Legislative Assembly calculator is up and running - start swinging, everyone!

[Barnes]

BTW, earlier today Deputy Labor Leader and member for Mackay, Tim Mulherin, announced his retirement.

[Barnes]

BTW, earlier today Deputy Labor Leader and member for Mackay, Tim Mulherin, announced his retirement.

They have to be incredibly confident for that to have happened...

It struck me as odd as well, but apparently Mulherin has been considering retiring for a long while and the early election forced his hand.

[Barnes]

BTW, earlier today Deputy Labor Leader and member for Mackay, Tim Mulherin, announced his retirement.

They have to be incredibly confident for that to have happened...

It struck me as odd as well, but apparently Mulherin has been considering retiring for a long while and the early election forced his hand.

His father passed away late last year, and he's taking care of his mother while holding off cardiac surgery.

The seat I am most interested in (besides Ashgrove ) is Cook in the Cape York peninsula. It's a traditionally Labor seat (held by Labor even during the Bjelke-Peterson years)  and the LNP only has a 3.43% margin. However, I read that some polling has shown the LNP leading in the seat due to the popularity of the local member combined with a limited swing to Labor in the Far North overall. Yet on paper, it seems like it should be an easy Labor gain, and the Labor candidate is indigenous, which should help with the huge native vote in the seat.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Ah, I see, quite understandable then.  I haven't really picked seats to watch yet (besides the obvious Ashgrove ), but I'll do a little post when I have.

[Barnes]

I'll keep an eye on:

- Mackay: For the above mentioned reasons as well it being Labor's most marginal seat, which isn't much, to be honest
- Whitsunday: If Labor gets a uniform swing large enough to take this one (roughly 11%), the LNP looses their majority.
- Mirani: Same as Whitsunday
- Murramba: A uniform swing to the ALP to take this seat (about 9.5%) would leave the LNP within my range on a predicted majority, so I have a real interest in this one!

[Barnes]

Playing with the ABC calculator, it has occurred to me that there is a very good chance we might not have a government on election night. KAP and the independents will hold the balance of power, which isn't the most comforting thought.

That would be rather unfortunate, but I think the swing required for a hung parliament is outside of the current state of the race.

[Barnes]

Galaxy has it at 52-48 LNP, from 50-50 last time.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/10/galaxy-lnp-41-labor-38-in-queensland/

That would produce an Assembly roughly like this:
LNP: 45
ALP: 39
Others: 5

Of course, as with any swing, this assumes uniformity, but it would be quite an impressive comeback for Labor.

[Barnes]

@Sol, the Newman government and the Abbott government is toxic leaving a very bad condition for the LNP. Also a lot of LNP seats - after the wipeout of 2011 - they really have no business holding, and would probably be lose even if the government was reasonably popular.

Australia has its "right-wing" and "left-wing" states, but unlike the US all of them are competitive at state level.

Ahh, okay. What has the Newman government done so wrong?

They have governed in a very...aggressive style? Basically they have had a lot of controversial polices and haven't been afraid to fight for them.

There's a lot of policy that we can hash through, but the main point is that the governmemt has been particularly aggressive about implementing its policies, and unapologetically so, really turning a lot of people away from them.

That, combined with the fact that the 2012 landslide could not possibly be repeated in the score of Labor seats the government holds, gives Labor the hope of making a dramatic comeback. Which really means reforming into a large opposition - not winning governemnt.

[Barnes]

This should be quite a fun election night. I look forward to the contributions in here.

Final Prediction

2PP:
LNP - 52%
ALP - 48%

Seats:
LNP - 46
ALP - 38
Others - 5

Newman is a goner, it appears. That alone will make this a good night.

[Barnes]

Newman to lose Ashgrove  52.7-47.3

Final prediction shortly... ugh, this is really tricky.

I agree. Admittedly, I'm not familiar enough with the individual electorates to make a full prediction, so I relied on the ABC's calculator for the seat totals. I think if the LNP stays in on my projected totals, they might have a slightly higher seat count.

[Barnes]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

Hopefully, they will make this internationally available in a few minutes.

Alternatively, you can listen to the ABC Radio coverage: http://www.abc.net.au/radio/player/beta/#live/local_brisbane

[Barnes]

Apparently the ALP's internals were showing numbers similar to the exit poll, so it appears that it's not a total aberration.  Should be interesting!

[Barnes]

Never really a surprise, but Ashgrove's gone.

[Barnes]

This is absolutely astonishing.  The LNP made history in 2012, but for Labor to come back at this margin from just 7 seats at that last election is something entirely more remarkable.

[Barnes]

#AnnastaciaForPM

[Barnes]

Hold your breath, but the projected seats are 44-34 Labor.

[Barnes]

Antony's computer is predicting 46 for the ALP. But it will come down to the postals

Those are being counted tomorrow, correct?