Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[morgieb]

Labor to either win or go very close to victory. You heard it here first.

[morgieb]

Gonna say LNP 51-49, LNP to retain govnerment but Newman to lose his seat. Had he waited a little longer I think he may well have lost.

[morgieb]

I pretty much agree with most people here: Huge swing to the ALP, but the LNP remain slightly ahead on TPP and retain a majority of seats. Newman to lose in Ashgrove.

If Newman does lose in Ashgrove, who do you think is likely to replace him as Premier?

Springborg to finally get another go!

Nicholls would be their smartest choice IMO, a country bumpkin like Seeney or Springborg won't fly well with urban LNP voters.

[morgieb]

KAP to retain their two seats but do  all else, PUP won't do anything now given how much they're imploding. I think Wellington, Douglas and Foley will win out of independents. Pauline will poll well, but not enough to really threaten the LNP's hold on the seat.

[morgieb]

Ashgrove is a special case and a LOT of attention will be placed on it...

There are four I'll be looking at, purely because of the different mix of seats and where things might be going.

- Bulimba
- Whitsunday
- Waterford
- Greenslopes

I would be very surprised if Labor didn't pick up Bulimba, Waterford, and Greenslopes. If they somehow manage to gain Whitsunday, they're probably headed for an extremely good night.

Yeah would agree. Greenslopes could be interesting as the swing was very small in 2012 and Dick's running in Woodridge so it's possible the swing could be tempered by the loss of his personal vote, but in this election it's hard to see the LNP holding on to seats that marginal.

[morgieb]

Odd results. Generally though electorate polling should be taken with a grain of salt.

If Newman does retain, either voting patterns in those sort of seats are odd, or Labor are performing quite badly.

[morgieb]

Obviously I can't say for certain, but my ~gut feeling~ is that Newman will probably eke out a narrow victory there.

In other news, One Nation is apparently "poling" "30 to 47%" in "some electorates".

At least their website is in the 21st Century now lol.

[morgieb]

Well, the LNP will be pissed if Newman hangs on.

He's probably still a better option for them then say Seeney or Springborg or another ex-Nat. Emerson's probably not experienced enough yet, Nicholls is iffy as well.

[morgieb]

So Labor is still running junks ads as if they haven't learned anything from their awful 2012 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptJMNV_qsY

I'm increasingly convinced this will be a double digit LNP win or close to it in the end. Labor may not even break twenty seats.

Weren't you the guy that said the LNP would retain Redcliffe and Stafford?

[morgieb]

Albert - classic marginal. Expect it to be a bellweather, with the LNP narrowly holding on.
Algester - one of the triumvriate of seats that have been safe Labor and LNP lately. Expect them to swing back to Labor fairly largely and win them the seats.
Ashgrove - the seat where everyone's eyes will be on. With Jones returning (hence sophmore surge effects being nullified) and the seat being rather marginal Newman is probably the underdog, though if there's a late swing to the LNP his chances of holding dramatically improve, the expectations game could help Newman.
Aspley - would be more marginal under federal figures, but a 20% swing is a massive ask for Labor, they aren't quite doing that well.
Barron River - another seat that seems to be around the margin that Labor needs to win, I suspect the LNP narrowly hold on.
Beaudesert - safe LNP seat. Unlike in the past there doesn't seem to be any populist right candidates to threaten the LNP here either.
Brisbane Central - will be interesting. It's marginal but the high Greens vote might mean that it doesn't swing that much. The seat seems to be evolving too. Probably a Labor gain, but will probably swing less than the state average.
Broadwater - on paper should be a LNP hold, particularly on federal figures, but Labor need Gold Coast seats...and the local MP is apparently pretty disastrous. Still, I don't see Labor picking it up until they're entrenched in governement.
Buderim - LNP hold, yawn.
Bulimba - will flip back to Labor. However given the swing last time was a lot smaller than the rest of the state, it might not swing very viciously for Labor.
Bundaberg - probably too big of a margin to flip back, although Labor did hold the seat for over 100 years consectively.
Bundamba - Labor hold, obviously.
Burdekin - probably a LNP hold, but with the sitting MP retiring it could be close. Labor's best shot of prevailing is if there is a vote split among the right, which could be possible due to the fact that the seat is open.
Burleigh - basically what I wrote for Burleigh applies here.
Burnett - LNP hold.
Cairns - another key seat, but all the polling seems to indicate that it will flip back to Labor. The seat has a strong history of being Labor, but before 2012 it was often by small margins.
Callide - LNP hold. Would've been interesting though before the PUP imploded, as their candidate here is quite high-profile.
Caloundra - LNP hold, though McArdle will probably get a bit of scare.
Capalaba - although the LNP sitting member is strong, the margin is too narrow for the LNP to hold on.
Chatsworth - probably will remain LNP, but was a pretty safe Labor seat before the 2005 by-election, so it could either flip back to Labor dramatically, or perhaps it is a sign that the seat has become more conservative lately.
Clayfield - LNP hold, Nicholls would be have an excellent shot of being leader if Newman loses.
Cleveland - LNP hold most likely, from memory this part of the world has become a lot more conservative lately.
Condamine - had Hopper not switched seats he likely would've won this, but as it is it probably will stay with the LNP. Hard to see his son doing that well here.
Cook - on paper should be won by Labor, but there has been promising polling for the LNP. The swing will be small, but I don't think it will be small enough.
Coomera - LNP hold.
Currumbin - LNP hold. Interestingly though unlike most of the other Gold Coast seats this was held by Labor during the 90's, but flipped to the LNP as early as 2004.
Dalrymple - I suspect Knuth has a strong local profile, so a KAP hold.
Everton - this seat has traditionally been Labor-leaning, though there are signs that the seat is trending towards the LNP. As it stands Labor can win the seat, but the margin should be big enough for Mander to hold on.
Ferny Grove - tough call. Could go either way, but the sitting MP in 2012 had a volatile ministry and the new Labor candidate has a high-ish profile as a former Senator. I think Labor narrowly win it.
Gaven - Douglas's influence will be important here. He probably doesn't poll well enough to win, but he could steal enough LNP votes to hand the seat to Labor. Boilover potential, definitely.
Gladstone - with Cunningham retiring, expect Labor to win. Might have been interesting under CPV (Cunningham having anoited a successor) or if the LNP didn't run though.
Glass House - LNP hold.
Greenslopes - traditionally a bellweather, but the seat is too marginal for the LNP to hold most likely. Might not swing particularly big though.
Gregory - LNP hold.
Gympie - LNP hold.
Hervey Bay - LNP hold.
Hinchinbrook - LNP hold. KAP won't poll well here unlike last time.
Inala - Labor hold.
Indooroopilly - Labor did hold this during the Beattie years, but it was widely seen as a fluke that they did. LNP hold, Emerson will probably be in the mix for being a future leader of the LNP/Premier in the near future.
Ipswich - had Nolan retired or something Labor would probably have held this seat even in 2012. As it is it should be an easy pickup for the ALP.
Ipswich West - on federal figures would be an ALP seat. Expect them to win it back comfortably.
Kallangur - while on paper Labor winning the seat seems a reach, there have been some local scandals here relating to the LNP, and the seat would be marginal under federal figures. One of the seats that will decide the election, I think the LNP will narrowly hold.
Kawana - LNP hold.
Keppel - was a National seat for a long time, but that was helped by a very strong local MP. Without Lester the seat generally leans Labor, so I think Labor should win it back.
Lockyer - while this was a batsion of One Nation support which could help Hanson do well, it's probably been too long for Pauline to actually win the seat. LNP should hold.
Logan - should flip back to Labor pretty easily.
Lytton - should be a Labor gain. If the seat was safer though it would be hard for Labor to win due to the sacking of their original candidate.

[morgieb]

Mackay - although this is a Labor held seat, the sitting MP is retiring and the seat would be LNP held under federal figures. The swing could be small, but Labor should hold.
Mansfield - the Eden-Monaro of Queensland. Given that I think the LNP will narrowly win and the fact that the sitting MP seems to be pretty strong the LNP should probably hang on.
Maroochydore - LNP hold.
Maryborough - with Foley recontesting this looks interesting. Does he still have a strong personal vote? If the vote splits enough (i.e. LNP and Foley get a similar percentage of the vote and the populist right parties poll well) Labor could even win - they did hold the seat as recently as the 90's. All in all though I think Foley wins.
Mermaid Beach - LNP hold.
Mirani - with the sitting MP retiring, a former sitting MP contesting for the ALP and therefore the seat lacking the sophmore surge that similar seats will get, the ALP should be favoured here.
Moggill - LNP hold.
Morayfield - probably a Labor gain - the margin seems too narrow for the LNP to hang on and the recycling of the guy that lost in 2012 could also help with nullfying the effects of the sophmore surge. Federally however the Liberals did well here.
Mount Coot-tha - similar to Brisbane Central in that the Greens vote could nullify the swing a little bit, but Labor should be favoured here.
Mount Isa - KAP hold? Looks like a 3-way race, so anyone could win it. Katter did lose a lot of support in his own district in the federal election, but the LNP are probably on the nose in rural Australia as well.
Mount Ommaney - should swing big. Probably won't be big enough to really threaten the LNP here though.
Mudgeeraba - LNP hold.
Mulgrave - Pitt must be a freak, as Labor shouldn't have gone close to holding this seat last time. Yet they did, and it's hard to see how the LNP can win a seat they don't already have.
Mundingburra - the bellweather, even being the seat that saw Labor lose their majority in the 1996 by-election. I thought Labor would be the underdog here....but the seat does seem to be getting a lot of attention. I think Labor pinch it.
Murrumba - the seat was a fairly safe Labor seat before 2012 and would be more marginal under federal figures. I think Labor win it back.
Nanango - I don't think Hopper's gamble of running in Nanango rather than his original seat of Condamine will work. LNP hold.
Nicklin - Wellington should hold on. I don't think there's the same conservative antipathy towards independents like there was a couple of years ago.
Noosa - LNP hold.
Nudgee - should be an easy Labor gain.
Pine Rivers - Labor have their chances, but this seems a seat where they aren't optimistic. 2018, maybe?
Pumicestone - should be close, but the sitting MP is strong and Galaxy had the LNP ahead. I think the LNP hold on.
Redcliffe - Labor should hold, but there'll be a correction in the LNP's favour that will make the margin more like 2-3%.
Redlands - should be an LNP hold on paper, but there seems to be some local controversies that might hamper the LNP....expect a big swing.
Rockhampton - Labor hold.
Sandgate - see Nudgee.
South Brisbane - Labor hold.
Southern Downs - LNP hold.
Southport - although Labor held this before 2012, the sitting MP is solid and this is traditionally conservative territory. The LNP should be fine here.
Springwood - another bellweather. Would think the margin is too great for Labor to win, but they do have a reasonably strong candidate so it might have a large swing.
Stafford - Labor hold, though with a correction in the LNP's favour.
Stretton - like Algester, a formerly safe Labor seat that looks safe LNP on paper. Think they'll all be won by Labor again. Though the Independent running here did well in 2012, and he does lean Labor.....
Sunnybank - see what I wrote for Algester and Stretton.
Surfers Paradise - LNP hold.
Thuringowa - interesting. Traditionally though this seat is pretty safe for Labor, ableit with a populist flair that favours populist right parties. I think they'll win this back, but One Nation should poll well given they have a high profile candidate and also a lot of the Katter vote to mop up.
Toowoomba North - tough. Should be an LNP hold on federal figures, but Shine is running again and he seemingly has a strong personal vote. In addition this is an area in which Labor wants representation and their hunger could be enough to snatch the seat. Think the LNP hangs on...barely.
Toowoomba South - LNP hold, though apparently the LNP did campaign in Toowoomba, so perhaps this might be more marginal than what it appears on paper.
Townsville - with a high profile Labor candidate and a narrow LNP margin, this should be a Labor gain. The one published poll had them way ahead here.
Warrego - LNP hold, though apparently this has had visits from both Labor and the LNP, so it could swing.
Waterford - Labor gain.
Whitsunday - interesting. If Labor can mop up the Katter vote, this could be a surprise gain. Otherwise, I think the LNP narrowly hangs on.
Woodridge - Labor hold.
Yeerongpilly - Labor gain. How badly Judge polls will be interesting to see.

[morgieb]

Great job morgieb, very instructive (I would take more, but there is no more divisions!), but I suspect it's a typo?

Burleigh - basically what I wrote for Burleigh applies here.

Yes haha, meant Broadwater.

[morgieb]

One thing that is interesting is that instead of attending a forum in his own electorate ... Newman was campaigning in Toowoomba South and Bundaberg, on margins of 21.6% and 18.2%

Very odd. I can't imagine either of those seats ever going Labor, even in a landslide victory. Maybe he is campaigning in friendly territory for decent headlines?

Worth noting Bundaberg was held by the ALP by Labor or Labor-leaning Independents for the entirety of the JBP years. And Toowoomba North is competitive....maybe there's a flow-on effect from there?

[morgieb]

I've been doing predictions myself, including Google Earth versions of them (feel free to PM me if you'd like to see those) Will make final revisions day before election day:

KEY:
LNP
ALP
ALP by-election gain
KAP
Independent

Albert - Generally a marginal seat, and keenly contested by both major parties. LNP to hold on with a swing against them.
Algester - Not as safe for the ALP as the past may indicate, however it should be re-gained in 2015.
Ashgrove - Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands - we could see a situation where Newman loses his seat while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.
Aspley - LNP retain.
Barron River - Key contest, LNP favoured.
Beaudesert - Should be an easy LNP retain, with the former KAP leader not contesting, and a general decline in the KAP vote.
Brisbane Central - Robert Cavallucci is a hardworking MP, and although his seat may be trending LNP, it will be difficult for him to hold on in 2015. ALP gain.
Broadwater - More LNP (and National) than ALP historically, should be held by the LNP despite poor performance from the sitting member.
Buderim - Easy LNP retain.
Bulimba - One of the first seats the ALP will re-gain.
Bundaberg - LNP retain, considering the trend to the LNP here. The ALP would have to do really well to win Bundaberg back.
Bundamba - Easy ALP retain.
Burdekin - Labor will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Burleigh - Likely LNP retain, given the traditional LNP strength on the Gold Coast.
Burnett - Easy LNP hold, unless another independent, KAP or even PUP poll strongly, which isn't likely.
Cairns - Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.
Callide - LNP retain, with John Bjelke-Petersen coming second.
Caloundra - Easy LNP retain.
Capalaba - Likely ALP gain, the only Redlands area seat which the ALP have a good chance of taking back in 2015.
Chatsworth - Key contest, likely LNP hold, as the area seems to have trended to them at both levels of government.
Clayfield - LNP retain.
Cleveland - LNP retain, unless the ALP are on track for a sizeable majority.
Condamine - LNP re-gain, although the KAP's Ben Hopper, son of former member Ray Hopper, should come second.
Cook - Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.
Coomera - LNP retain, although with a significantly reduced majority.
Currumbin - LNP retain, given the trend to the conservatives here.
Dalrymple - Easy hold for Shane Knuth.
Everton - Tradtionally an ALP seat, the LNP could hold on here in 2015.
Ferny Grove - Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Gaven - Alex Douglas contesting re-election as an independent, along with the swing away from the LNP, could make this interesting. LNP hold for now, unless Douglas takes a sizeable portion of the vote, which may not flow back as preferences.
Gladstone - Easy ALP gain, given that Liz Cunningham is retiring.
Glass House - LNP retain, and should remain with the LNP on the current boundaries.
Greenslopes - Greenslopes' bellwether history could come to a close - while it's gone with the government since 1960, it's very much low-hanging fruit, and with former MLA Cameron Dick running for the ALP, they stand a good chance here.
Gregory - Easy LNP retain.
Gympie - Easy LNP retain.
Hervey Bay - LNP retain.
Hinchinbrook - Should be an easy LNP hold.
Inala - The ALP's safest seat at the 2012 election, and with its member Annastacia Palaszczuk now Opposition Leader, it should become a lot safer.
Indooroopilly - LNP retain.
Ipswich - ALP gain.
Ipswich West - Likely ALP gain.
Kallangur - Possible LNP retain in a tight contest.
Kawana - Easy LNP retain.
Keppel - Hard to call, the area has leaned conservative generally, right up until 2004, although Vince Lester was a long-serving MP, and no doubt had a decent personal vote. Likely ALP gain.
Lockyer - LNP retain, despite the seat being one of Pauline Hanson's many perennial candidacies.
Logan - One the ALP will definitely win back.
Lytton - Easy ALP gain.
Mackay - Easy ALP retain.
Mansfield - Likely LNP retain, with a significant cut to the margin.
Maroochydore - Easy LNP retain.
Maryborough - With Chris Foley re-contesting and an anti-LNP swing looming, this will be one to watch. I'd say Foley wins this back.
Mermaid Beach - Easy LNP retain.
Mirani - Traditionally a conservative-leaning seat, Mirani absorbed much of the old ALP seat of Fitzroy prior to the 2009 election. With former Fitzroy MLA Jim Pearce recontesting after losing in 2009, along with incumbent member Ted Malone retiring, this is looking like an ALP gain.
Moggill - Easy LNP retain.
Morayfield - Darren Grimwade might be a hardworking MP, but it's hard to see him holding on here in 2015.
Mount Coot-tha - One of the best seats for the Greens in Queensland, this should return to the ALP on the back of a general swing in their direction.
Mount Isa - Should be a fairly easy retain for Rob Katter, and Labor will likely come second, on the back of an anti-LNP swing.
Mount Ommaney - Very much a toss-up, although the Liberals did win here in 1995. I'd go for an LNP retain.
Mudgeeraba - Easy LNP retain.
Mulgrave - Easy ALP retain, particularly given the vote split between the LNP and KAP.
Mundingburra - A bellwether seat, Mundingburra will possibly stay with the LNP in 2015. If the ALP win this back, they will have likely won government.
Murrumba - Key seat, likely to go back to the ALP on current polling.
Nanango - Possible LNP retain, given that Ray Hopper, member for Condamine, is running here in 2015, and could benefit from an anti-LNP swing. This being said, the LNP should hold.
Nicklin - Peter Wellington will win again.
Noosa - Easy LNP retain.
Nudgee - ALP gain.
Pine Rivers - Should be an LNP hold, although the ALP will gnaw off a fair chunk of the margin.
Pumicestone - Key seat, if Labor win this they will most likely be back in government. Should be an LNP hold.
Redcliffe - Will likely be held by the ALP, although with a correction towards the LNP in this tradtionally competitive seat.
Redlands - Despite the controversy surrounding the soon-to-be former member, LNP retain.
Rockhampton - Easy ALP retain.
Sandgate - ALP gain.
South Brisbane - Easy ALP retain.
Southern Downs - The only question here is whether the ALP or KAP come second here.
Southport - Likely LNP retain.
Springwood - Likely LNP retain.
Stafford - The ALP will hold on here, this would have been difficult for the LNP to hold, even without the 2014 by-election.
Stretton - Unless David Forde polls strongly again, and the LNP don't lose too much of their primary vote, ALP gain.
Sunnybank - Given the history in this seat and the likely anti-LNP swing, ALP gain.
Surfers Paradise - Easy LNP retain.
Thuringowa - Will likely revert to an LNP-ALP race in 2015, with Labor in a decent position to re-gain.
Toowoomba North - Traditonally a conservative-leaning seat, Toowoomba North will be hotly contested by both the LNP and ALP. LNP hold in a close one.
Toowoomba South - LNP retain.
Townsville - While Townsville has tended to be a marginal seat, it has had a Labor lean, and the ALP should regain it.
Warrego - Easy LNP retain.
Waterford - Definite ALP gain.
Whitsunday - With the collapse in the KAP vote, along with the seat's history, a very tight contest ensues. Narrow LNP hold for now.
Woodridge - Easy ALP retain.
Yeerongpilly - ALP gain, with the real question being: Does Carl Judge poll like Geoff Shaw, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, or Adele Carles?

On these predictions:

LNP - 50
ALP - 35
Independent - 2
KAP - 2

Just a nitpick here - Dick is running in Woodridge, not Greenslopes.

Overall though good stuff.

[morgieb]

I don't think the GST thing is that huge of a gaffe.

That said, I think most people should know that it's 10%. I can name the rate on top of my head, then again given I'm a training accountant it would be bad if they didn't

[morgieb]

Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/queensland-election-minus-one-day/

I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooropilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.

[morgieb]

I'll say 51.5/48.5. LNP to hang on to their majority, but it won't be 100% clear by the end of the night.

[morgieb]

Still early days, but I think Labor might win this.

[morgieb]

The loser seems to be the crossbench.

Looks like only Knuth and Katter will win for KAP, and Nicklin will hold for the independents.

Hmm that's only 4 to 3. Pauline still has an outside chance I guess, perhaps Foley as well.

And the obvious losers, regardless of if Labor can get a majority are the LNP.

[morgieb]

ABC has Labor one off of a majority...

Down to 43. But still the LNP are very likely gone.

[morgieb]

William Bowe saying Labor on 45 now.

Given there's 89 seats, you can work out the significance of this.

[morgieb]

Labor to either win or go very close to victory. You heard it here first.

I will now accept my accolades.

[morgieb]

Leanne Enoch has become the first Aboriginal woman elected to Parliament, winning back the safe Labor seat of Algester.

Every state seat that falls in Wyatt Roy's federal electorate has been lost save one which is being held by 1%. Hopefully that little sh**tstain goes down soon.

I would most like to see Roy and Gambaro lose in the federal election. Might be too much to ask for though.

Assuming polls stay what they are (or even narrow a bit) they'll lose. A 50/50 should doom Gambaro at least, Roy might be tougher but he'll be in trouble.

[morgieb]

This is arguably the third election Abbott has cost the Coalition. He needs to go.

That said, given the nature of Pretince's electorate, she'll be one of the first to sour on him.

[morgieb]

"Is he going to be challenged?"

Any answer other than 'No' is politicianese for 'Yes'. She went with "Let's see what he says on Monday."

Yeah, that's one of the most blantant bits of spin I've heard.