Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Will post more detailed predictions later, can't believe the QLD election's this early in the year!

I'm going with the consensus of large swing to the ALP, with the LNP narrowly getting a second term. I also expect Newman to lose Ashgrove, and thus be fired as Premier.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I pretty much agree with most people here: Huge swing to the ALP, but the LNP remain slightly ahead on TPP and retain a majority of seats. Newman to lose in Ashgrove.

If Newman does lose in Ashgrove, who do you think is likely to replace him as Premier?

Most likely either Jeff Seeney (Deputy Premier) or Tim Nicholls (Treasurer).

On another note, Gladstone MLA Liz Cunningham is retiring after 20 years, meaning Labor has another seat they will pick up this year. I sincerely doubt the Cunningham-endorsed independent will poll strongly enough to threaten Labor.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Newspoll has it at 53-47 to LNP. RIP ALP.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/10/newspoll-and-galaxy-53-47-and-52-48-to-lnp-in-queensland/

On those numbers, the ALP should still win over 30 seats though.

Seats I'll be watching in particular:

Mirani - Ted Malone, the incumbent LNP member, is retiring after 21 years. Jim Pearce, the  former member for Fitzroy, which covered a lot of the present-day Mirani prior to 2009, is contesting the seat for the ALP, and in the current climate, has a good chance of winning.

Greenslopes - With a strong bellwether record (since 1960, if you count the 1995/6 period) that's likely to be broken, and a small swing last time, it will be interesting to see what happens here. I expect Labor to pick it up, not sure by how much though.

Lockyer - How much will perennial loser Pauline Hanson poll? Frankly, she should have got the message years ago.

Gaven - Will Alex Douglas poll enough to actually shape the result, i.e. allowing Labor to win on vote-splitting, or otherwise force the LNP to preferences?

Yeerongpilly - It will be interesting to see who Carl Judge polls closest to, out of the following:

• Geoff Shaw (12.9%)
• Adele Carles (5.5%)
• Craig Thomson (4%)
• Peter Slipper (1.55%!)

Cook - A poll had the LNP in front, although there is a large indigenous population in this seat, who generally lean Labor. Labor running an indigenous candidate could very well help them here, and this seat had one of the smallest swings in 2012, although KAP muddled the mix that year.

Ashgrove - Obviously Premier Newman's not that popular amongst many Queenslanders, although even if you're not a fan of him or the LNP, you've got to give him credit for running in Ashgrove again, and not fleeing for the likes of Moggill.

Redcliffe/Stafford - Where the ALP margin in these seats will go, wouldn't be surprised to see a small correction to the LNP in Redcliffe, but not Stafford.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I've been doing predictions myself, including Google Earth versions of them (feel free to PM me if you'd like to see those) Will make final revisions day before election day:

KEY:
LNP
ALP
ALP by-election gain
KAP
Independent

Albert - Generally a marginal seat, and keenly contested by both major parties. LNP to hold on with a swing against them.
Algester - Not as safe for the ALP as the past may indicate, however it should be re-gained in 2015.
Ashgrove - Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands - we could see a situation where Newman loses his seat while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.
Aspley - LNP retain.
Barron River - Key contest, LNP favoured.
Beaudesert - Should be an easy LNP retain, with the former KAP leader not contesting, and a general decline in the KAP vote.
Brisbane Central - Robert Cavallucci is a hardworking MP, and although his seat may be trending LNP, it will be difficult for him to hold on in 2015. ALP gain.
Broadwater - More LNP (and National) than ALP historically, should be held by the LNP despite poor performance from the sitting member.
Buderim - Easy LNP retain.
Bulimba - One of the first seats the ALP will re-gain.
Bundaberg - LNP retain, considering the trend to the LNP here. The ALP would have to do really well to win Bundaberg back.
Bundamba - Easy ALP retain.
Burdekin - Labor will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Burleigh - Likely LNP retain, given the traditional LNP strength on the Gold Coast.
Burnett - Easy LNP hold, unless another independent, KAP or even PUP poll strongly, which isn't likely.
Cairns - Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.
Callide - LNP retain, with John Bjelke-Petersen coming second.
Caloundra - Easy LNP retain.
Capalaba - Likely ALP gain, the only Redlands area seat which the ALP have a good chance of taking back in 2015.
Chatsworth - Key contest, likely LNP hold, as the area seems to have trended to them at both levels of government.
Clayfield - LNP retain.
Cleveland - LNP retain, unless the ALP are on track for a sizeable majority.
Condamine - LNP re-gain, although the KAP's Ben Hopper, son of former member Ray Hopper, should come second.
Cook - Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.
Coomera - LNP retain, although with a significantly reduced majority.
Currumbin - LNP retain, given the trend to the conservatives here.
Dalrymple - Easy hold for Shane Knuth.
Everton - Tradtionally an ALP seat, the LNP could hold on here in 2015.
Ferny Grove - Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Gaven - Alex Douglas contesting re-election as an independent, along with the swing away from the LNP, could make this interesting. LNP hold for now, unless Douglas takes a sizeable portion of the vote, which may not flow back as preferences.
Gladstone - Easy ALP gain, given that Liz Cunningham is retiring.
Glass House - LNP retain, and should remain with the LNP on the current boundaries.
Greenslopes - Greenslopes' bellwether history could come to a close - while it's gone with the government since 1960, it's very much low-hanging fruit, and the ALP stands a good chance here. I think Mansfield and Mundingburra, this election pending, are better seats to use as bellwethers in the future.
Gregory - Easy LNP retain.
Gympie - Easy LNP retain.
Hervey Bay - LNP retain.
Hinchinbrook - Should be an easy LNP hold.
Inala - The ALP's safest seat at the 2012 election, and with its member Annastacia Palaszczuk now Opposition Leader, it should become a lot safer.
Indooroopilly - LNP retain.
Ipswich - ALP gain.
Ipswich West - Likely ALP gain.
Kallangur - Possible LNP retain in a tight contest.
Kawana - Easy LNP retain.
Keppel - Hard to call, the area has leaned conservative generally, right up until 2004, although Vince Lester was a long-serving MP, and no doubt had a decent personal vote. Likely ALP gain.
Lockyer - LNP retain, despite the seat being one of Pauline Hanson's many perennial candidacies.
Logan - One the ALP will definitely win back.
Lytton - Easy ALP gain.
Mackay - Easy ALP retain.
Mansfield - Likely LNP retain, with a significant cut to the margin.
Maroochydore - Easy LNP retain.
Maryborough - With Chris Foley re-contesting and an anti-LNP swing looming, this will be one to watch. I'd say Foley wins this back.
Mermaid Beach - Easy LNP retain.
Mirani - Traditionally a conservative-leaning seat, Mirani absorbed much of the old ALP seat of Fitzroy prior to the 2009 election. With former Fitzroy MLA Jim Pearce recontesting after losing in 2009, along with incumbent member Ted Malone retiring, this is looking like an ALP gain.
Moggill - Easy LNP retain.
Morayfield - Darren Grimwade might be a hardworking MP, but it's hard to see him holding on here in 2015.
Mount Coot-tha - One of the best seats for the Greens in Queensland, this should return to the ALP on the back of a general swing in their direction.
Mount Isa - Should be a fairly easy retain for Rob Katter, and Labor will likely come second, on the back of an anti-LNP swing.
Mount Ommaney - Very much a toss-up, although the Liberals did win here in 1995. I'd go for an LNP retain.
Mudgeeraba - Easy LNP retain.
Mulgrave - Easy ALP retain, particularly given the vote split between the LNP and KAP.
Mundingburra - A bellwether seat, Mundingburra will possibly stay with the LNP in 2015. If the ALP win this back, they will have likely won government.
Murrumba - Key seat, likely to go back to the ALP on current polling.
Nanango - Possible LNP retain, given that Ray Hopper, member for Condamine, is running here in 2015, and could benefit from an anti-LNP swing. This being said, the LNP should hold.
Nicklin - Peter Wellington will win again.
Noosa - Easy LNP retain.
Nudgee - ALP gain.
Pine Rivers - Should be an LNP hold, although the ALP will gnaw off a fair chunk of the margin.
Pumicestone - Key seat, if Labor win this they will most likely be back in government. Should be an LNP hold.
Redcliffe - Will likely be held by the ALP, although with a correction towards the LNP in this tradtionally competitive seat.
Redlands - Despite the controversy surrounding the soon-to-be former member, LNP retain.
Rockhampton - Easy ALP retain.
Sandgate - ALP gain.
South Brisbane - Easy ALP retain.
Southern Downs - The only question here is whether the ALP or KAP come second here.
Southport - Likely LNP retain.
Springwood - Likely LNP retain.
Stafford - The ALP will hold on here, this would have been difficult for the LNP to hold, even without the 2014 by-election.
Stretton - Unless David Forde polls strongly again, and the LNP don't lose too much of their primary vote, ALP gain.
Sunnybank - Given the history in this seat and the likely anti-LNP swing, ALP gain.
Surfers Paradise - Easy LNP retain.
Thuringowa - Will likely revert to an LNP-ALP race in 2015, with Labor in a decent position to re-gain.
Toowoomba North - Traditonally a conservative-leaning seat, Toowoomba North will be hotly contested by both the LNP and ALP. LNP hold in a close one.
Toowoomba South - LNP retain.
Townsville - While Townsville has tended to be a marginal seat, it has had a Labor lean, and the ALP should regain it.
Warrego - Easy LNP retain.
Waterford - Definite ALP gain.
Whitsunday - With the collapse in the KAP vote, along with the seat's history, a very tight contest ensues. Narrow LNP hold for now.
Woodridge - Easy ALP retain.
Yeerongpilly - ALP gain, with the real question being: Does Carl Judge poll like Geoff Shaw, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, or Adele Carles?

On these predictions:

LNP - 50
ALP - 35
Independent - 2
KAP - 2

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I've been doing predictions myself, including Google Earth versions of them (feel free to PM me if you'd like to see those) Will make final revisions day before election day:

KEY:
LNP
ALP
ALP by-election gain
KAP
Independent

Albert - Generally a marginal seat, and keenly contested by both major parties. LNP to hold on with a swing against them.
Algester - Not as safe for the ALP as the past may indicate, however it should be re-gained in 2015.
Ashgrove - Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands - we could see a situation where Newman loses his seat while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.
Aspley - LNP retain.
Barron River - Key contest, LNP favoured.
Beaudesert - Should be an easy LNP retain, with the former KAP leader not contesting, and a general decline in the KAP vote.
Brisbane Central - Robert Cavallucci is a hardworking MP, and although his seat may be trending LNP, it will be difficult for him to hold on in 2015. ALP gain.
Broadwater - More LNP (and National) than ALP historically, should be held by the LNP despite poor performance from the sitting member.
Buderim - Easy LNP retain.
Bulimba - One of the first seats the ALP will re-gain.
Bundaberg - LNP retain, considering the trend to the LNP here. The ALP would have to do really well to win Bundaberg back.
Bundamba - Easy ALP retain.
Burdekin - Labor will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Burleigh - Likely LNP retain, given the traditional LNP strength on the Gold Coast.
Burnett - Easy LNP hold, unless another independent, KAP or even PUP poll strongly, which isn't likely.
Cairns - Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.
Callide - LNP retain, with John Bjelke-Petersen coming second.
Caloundra - Easy LNP retain.
Capalaba - Likely ALP gain, the only Redlands area seat which the ALP have a good chance of taking back in 2015.
Chatsworth - Key contest, likely LNP hold, as the area seems to have trended to them at both levels of government.
Clayfield - LNP retain.
Cleveland - LNP retain, unless the ALP are on track for a sizeable majority.
Condamine - LNP re-gain, although the KAP's Ben Hopper, son of former member Ray Hopper, should come second.
Cook - Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.
Coomera - LNP retain, although with a significantly reduced majority.
Currumbin - LNP retain, given the trend to the conservatives here.
Dalrymple - Easy hold for Shane Knuth.
Everton - Tradtionally an ALP seat, the LNP could hold on here in 2015.
Ferny Grove - Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Gaven - Alex Douglas contesting re-election as an independent, along with the swing away from the LNP, could make this interesting. LNP hold for now, unless Douglas takes a sizeable portion of the vote, which may not flow back as preferences.
Gladstone - Easy ALP gain, given that Liz Cunningham is retiring.
Glass House - LNP retain, and should remain with the LNP on the current boundaries.
Greenslopes - Greenslopes' bellwether history could come to a close - while it's gone with the government since 1960, it's very much low-hanging fruit, and with former MLA Cameron Dick running for the ALP, they stand a good chance here.
Gregory - Easy LNP retain.
Gympie - Easy LNP retain.
Hervey Bay - LNP retain.
Hinchinbrook - Should be an easy LNP hold.
Inala - The ALP's safest seat at the 2012 election, and with its member Annastacia Palaszczuk now Opposition Leader, it should become a lot safer.
Indooroopilly - LNP retain.
Ipswich - ALP gain.
Ipswich West - Likely ALP gain.
Kallangur - Possible LNP retain in a tight contest.
Kawana - Easy LNP retain.
Keppel - Hard to call, the area has leaned conservative generally, right up until 2004, although Vince Lester was a long-serving MP, and no doubt had a decent personal vote. Likely ALP gain.
Lockyer - LNP retain, despite the seat being one of Pauline Hanson's many perennial candidacies.
Logan - One the ALP will definitely win back.
Lytton - Easy ALP gain.
Mackay - Easy ALP retain.
Mansfield - Likely LNP retain, with a significant cut to the margin.
Maroochydore - Easy LNP retain.
Maryborough - With Chris Foley re-contesting and an anti-LNP swing looming, this will be one to watch. I'd say Foley wins this back.
Mermaid Beach - Easy LNP retain.
Mirani - Traditionally a conservative-leaning seat, Mirani absorbed much of the old ALP seat of Fitzroy prior to the 2009 election. With former Fitzroy MLA Jim Pearce recontesting after losing in 2009, along with incumbent member Ted Malone retiring, this is looking like an ALP gain.
Moggill - Easy LNP retain.
Morayfield - Darren Grimwade might be a hardworking MP, but it's hard to see him holding on here in 2015.
Mount Coot-tha - One of the best seats for the Greens in Queensland, this should return to the ALP on the back of a general swing in their direction.
Mount Isa - Should be a fairly easy retain for Rob Katter, and Labor will likely come second, on the back of an anti-LNP swing.
Mount Ommaney - Very much a toss-up, although the Liberals did win here in 1995. I'd go for an LNP retain.
Mudgeeraba - Easy LNP retain.
Mulgrave - Easy ALP retain, particularly given the vote split between the LNP and KAP.
Mundingburra - A bellwether seat, Mundingburra will possibly stay with the LNP in 2015. If the ALP win this back, they will have likely won government.
Murrumba - Key seat, likely to go back to the ALP on current polling.
Nanango - Possible LNP retain, given that Ray Hopper, member for Condamine, is running here in 2015, and could benefit from an anti-LNP swing. This being said, the LNP should hold.
Nicklin - Peter Wellington will win again.
Noosa - Easy LNP retain.
Nudgee - ALP gain.
Pine Rivers - Should be an LNP hold, although the ALP will gnaw off a fair chunk of the margin.
Pumicestone - Key seat, if Labor win this they will most likely be back in government. Should be an LNP hold.
Redcliffe - Will likely be held by the ALP, although with a correction towards the LNP in this tradtionally competitive seat.
Redlands - Despite the controversy surrounding the soon-to-be former member, LNP retain.
Rockhampton - Easy ALP retain.
Sandgate - ALP gain.
South Brisbane - Easy ALP retain.
Southern Downs - The only question here is whether the ALP or KAP come second here.
Southport - Likely LNP retain.
Springwood - Likely LNP retain.
Stafford - The ALP will hold on here, this would have been difficult for the LNP to hold, even without the 2014 by-election.
Stretton - Unless David Forde polls strongly again, and the LNP don't lose too much of their primary vote, ALP gain.
Sunnybank - Given the history in this seat and the likely anti-LNP swing, ALP gain.
Surfers Paradise - Easy LNP retain.
Thuringowa - Will likely revert to an LNP-ALP race in 2015, with Labor in a decent position to re-gain.
Toowoomba North - Traditonally a conservative-leaning seat, Toowoomba North will be hotly contested by both the LNP and ALP. LNP hold in a close one.
Toowoomba South - LNP retain.
Townsville - While Townsville has tended to be a marginal seat, it has had a Labor lean, and the ALP should regain it.
Warrego - Easy LNP retain.
Waterford - Definite ALP gain.
Whitsunday - With the collapse in the KAP vote, along with the seat's history, a very tight contest ensues. Narrow LNP hold for now.
Woodridge - Easy ALP retain.
Yeerongpilly - ALP gain, with the real question being: Does Carl Judge poll like Geoff Shaw, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, or Adele Carles?

On these predictions:

LNP - 50
ALP - 35
Independent - 2
KAP - 2

Just a nitpick here - Dick is running in Woodridge, not Greenslopes.

Overall though good stuff.

Thanks, will amend that now - obviously remembered him being the pre-2012 member in Greenslopes.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I don't believe it... I expected a backlash, not a booting! I do wonder what happened in Bundaberg in particular - I thought the area would have trended enough to the LNP to ward off any threat there.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think Abbott is living on borrowed time, but we should see how the staking horse does first. Nightmare scenario for the LNP is for a close leadership to divide the frontbench but Abbott to survive.

Bishop I feel is a more likely choice - Turnbull is utterly despised by half the party.

As a Liberal voter and for that matter, solid conservative, I would much prefer Bishop over Turnbull. Bishop being from my state also increases my preference.