Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Hifly]

So three virtually identical polls in all respects (primary vote, two party preferred vote, satisfaction, and preferred premier).

Not sure what to make of that, but I'll do a (traditionally pessimistic) prediction here.

TPP
LNP: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

Seats
LNP- 56 (RIP Newman though)
ALP- 27
Crossbench- 6 (Knuth, Katter, Wellington, Foley, Boyd, Butler)

If that's what you will feel will happen... fine - but ...

Polnut you've made some awful predictions in the past as have most of us so give him a break!

[Hifly]

I should have woken up earlier to watch the magic unfold! However with postage traditionally LNP leaning wouldn't be surprising to see LNP pull ahead in those few seats in doubt. I'm gonna predict a hung parliament at this point.

[Hifly]

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/24765

Ben Raue has a good rundown on seven close seats (Maryborough, Whitsunday, Mansfield, Glass House, Redlands, Mount Ommaney, and Ferny Grove). The ALP needs 3/7 of these to form a government, but it's currently on track to win only one of them.

He's a bit friendly to the ALP in this analysis but it's worth reading anyway.

The Labor candidate in Ferny Grove, Mark Furner, is the former senator for Qld who lost his seat in 2013. It's great to see him back in politics.