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Author Topic: European Parliament election, 2019  (Read 34746 times)
tack50
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« Reply #425 on: January 01, 2019, 07:30:40 pm »


GUE/NGL may or may not run a candidate. If they do, likely candidates include Gregor Gysi (Linke-Germany) as well as Jean Luc Melenchon (FI-France)


Isn't Melenchon party almost not a member of GUE-NGL? As far as I know currently they are ignoring GUE events and planing to start their own group without Linke and Syriza.

I guess the site hasn't been updated in a while?

In any case, if Melenchon is splitting from GUE/NGL I imagine the most likely candidate (if they run someone that is, remember that isn't a given) will probably be Gregor Gysi

I don't think Pablo Iglesias will be willing to run.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #426 on: January 02, 2019, 05:23:44 pm »

Will Macron's En Marche be running under the ALDE banner?  I am thinking if they do, that should help the ALDE a fair bit even with Macron's lousy approval rating.  Also the Citizen's in Spain could help them if they run under that.  I suspect NCR will do a lot worse as UK will have left the EU thus loss of one of their largest parties.  Overall I suspect the far right nationalists will gain, on the left Greens will gain while S&D will remain in second but continue to fall.  EPP probably comes in first again.
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coloniac
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« Reply #427 on: January 02, 2019, 06:30:49 pm »

@mileslunn Macron made a deal with Verhofstadt but it will have little effect on the overall ambition of the Alde leader to have a Europe-wide campaign. The "Macron" effect will only be felt in Belgium, and negatively if things continue. Most electorates in Europe care little for the European party configurations and their neighbours politics, even if we are starting to share the same political concerns.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #428 on: January 03, 2019, 01:38:42 pm »

Bayern EU poll (GMS for Sat1 Bayern):

36% CSU (-4.5)
18% Greens (+5.9)
13% AfD (+4.9)
10% SPD (-10.1)
  8% FDP (+4.9)
  5% FW (+0.7)
  4% Left (+1.1)
  6% Others (-2.9)

Turnout: 47% (+6.1)

https://www.sat1.at/regional/bayern/waehlercheck/waehlercheck2
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mileslunn
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« Reply #429 on: January 03, 2019, 01:40:32 pm »

@mileslunn Macron made a deal with Verhofstadt but it will have little effect on the overall ambition of the Alde leader to have a Europe-wide campaign. The "Macron" effect will only be felt in Belgium, and negatively if things continue. Most electorates in Europe care little for the European party configurations and their neighbours politics, even if we are starting to share the same political concerns.

Agreed with that, but France is a fairly major country so it will increase the ALDE numbers in France thus overall EU parliament representation even if no impact beyond French borders.  Macron may not be popular, but his party didn't exist at all last time around so even with low popularity should still be a lot higher than in 2014 for ALDE from France.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #430 on: January 04, 2019, 03:47:58 am »

It is speculated that the investigative left-wing/populist "NOW" party might present the former successful investigative and independent MEP Hans-Peter Martin as their frontrunner for the EU elections.

That would be a major coup for them if he's willing to run again.



Martin (a former SPÖ politician) retired from the European parliament in 2014, after serving 3 terms there and winning a lot of support for his own independent, investigative list in 1999, 2004 and 2009.

In the past years, he spent writing books and delivering speeches. His last book from 2018 is titled "Game Over: Wellbeing for the few, Democracy for no one, Nationalism for all - and then?"

In interviews with Austrian newspapers during the fall, he talked about the increasing wealth inequality in Europe and the fight against poverty, the fight against the Far-Right and environmentalism. Those are exactly the topics that NOW wants to run on in the EP elections. So, he would definitely fit their campaign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Peter_Martin

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/hans-peter-martin-lauter-aufschrei-macht-was/400125305
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tack50
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« Reply #431 on: January 04, 2019, 10:05:11 am »

We have our first poll (of sorts) for the EU parliamentary election!

It's from the worst pollster in all of Spain (CIS) and it's unweighted, with a bad sample, so take it with a huge grain of salt. It should have in theory an extreme pro-PSOE bias, and probably underrates Vox as well.

PP 14,3%
PSOE 19,7%
Unidos Podemos&allies 9,6% (includes Compromís, who may or may not run alone)
Ciudadanos 10,6%
PACMA 1,2%
VOX 2,1%
Los Verdes 0,5%!


ERC 3,1%
PDeCAT 0,6%!
EAJ-PNV 1,2%
EH Bildu 0,7%

Other party 0,5%
Blank 1,7%
Spoilt ballot 0,9%
Wouldn't vote 12,0%
Undecided 19,7%
Refused to answer 1,6%

The poll also gave us autonomous community crosstabs, which allow me to draw a map of the EU election. Keep in mind we are talking very small samples here, so this is just for fun



Biggest surprise IMO is the fact that they polled "Los Verdes" a green party which I think doesn't even exist since the late 2000s!

I wouldn't read anything into it, I'm just posting it because it's the first "real poll" we have, even if it's absolute garbage.
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Diouf
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« Reply #432 on: January 04, 2019, 12:26:54 pm »

Danish EU Poll by Wilke for Policywatch

Parties grouped by electoral coalition below (compared to 2014)

Social Democrats 22.4% (+3.3%) 4 seats (+1)
SPP 7.5% (-3.5%) 1 seat (=)

Liberals 18.7% (+2.0%) 3 seats (+1)
Conservatives 5.9% (-3.2%) 1 seat (=)
Liberal Alliance 3.5% (+0.6%) 0 seats (=)

People's Movement against EU 7.3% (-0.8%) 1 seat (=)
Red-Green Alliance 9.2% (new) 1 seat (new)

Social Liberals 7.5% (+1.0%) 1 seat (=)
Alternative 4.1% (new) 0 seats (new)

DPP 13.8% (-12.8%) 2 seats (-2)


It is still a long time to the election. As previously mentioned, there are still several unknowns (when and how will the general election onfold, who will be DPP's lead candidate, how big a role will Margrethe Vestager play etc.).
I would be suprised if DPP falls by this much, even though Messerschmidt was an exceptional candidate last time. The Red-Greens looks like they will make quite an entry on the EU scene if this poll is correct.

The first 13 seats are fairly safe if this is the result. The 14th seat is tight between several parties. The Social Democrats just nick their 4th seat ahead of Alternative, Liberals and Red-Green Alliance.
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Diouf
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« Reply #433 on: January 05, 2019, 02:25:11 am »

PSD still looms large in Romania. Ponta's new party, Pro Romania, looks set to start out well with 9%. Ciolos used to be in Miscarea Romania Impreuna, but seems to have started a new outfit Partidul Libertăţii, Unităţii şi Solidarităţii (PLUS), which was not started in time for this poll.

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Ethelberth
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« Reply #434 on: January 05, 2019, 07:12:24 am »

Does somebody know the ideology of these new parties. All to gether they could give ALDE a healthy chunk of MEPs.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #435 on: January 09, 2019, 03:30:18 pm »

So Salvini today had meeting with Kaczyński, and yesterday di Maio with Kukiz. As for the common group after the elections Kukiz + Movimento is pretty plausible and possible, I can't really imagine tight cooperation between Lega and PiS.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/09/salvini-says-italy-will-work-with-poland-to-build-new-europe?fbclid=IwAR2fSV70HbnqxSaldmCJt0IeK8l5751rVnuYwEC-1MPh_VZB8i96NUtj1IA
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bigic 🌐
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« Reply #436 on: January 10, 2019, 03:08:28 am »

So a M5S led new group would include M5S, Živi Zid (Croatia), Kukiz (Poland), maybe KPV LV (Latvia)... I can't really think of any other significant party that would join such a group.
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🇷🇸 Moderately pro-EU. Neoliberal globalist shill.
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« Reply #437 on: January 10, 2019, 05:49:00 am »

That new new estonian party (E2000) or something. Dutch pensioneers. In Finland we have new Liike Nyt, that has participated negotiations,  but its support has never been tested.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2019, 06:13:41 am by Ethelberth »Logged
tack50
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« Reply #438 on: January 12, 2019, 11:30:27 am »

In terms of Spanish regionalist coalitions, today we got another one confirmed, which seems to be the successor to 2014's European Spring. The 2019 coalition will be formed by:

Compromís (left wing Valencian nationalists)
Més (left wing Balearic Islands nationalists)
New Canaries (centre-left Canarian nationalists)
Aragonese Chunta (centre-left Aragon nationalists)

Looking at the composition, it seems like a strong platform with high chances of getting a seat. Compromís alone should easily get around 1%, with everyone else pushing it to 1.6-1.7%; enough for 1 seat.



So as of now the confirmed coalitions are:

ERC-Bildu-BNG (probably 3 seats with a chance at 2)
Compromís-Més-NCa-ChA (probably 1 seat, chance of 0)
PNV-CC (probably 1 seat, chance of 0)

The first 2 will almost certainly join the G/EFA group, in the EFA subgroup (which will now be limited to Spanish peripheral nationalists after Brexit). The last one will join ALDE if allowed. If Cs blocks them somehow then who knows what they'll join.

The big question here is what will PDECat do. They probably have 4 options:

1: Try to join the ERC coalition. ERC has already refused to run with them though, and they are a bad fit for that coalition

2: Try to get PNV to break up their coalition and join them. Depends on what image PNV wants to show, but they are trying to play moderates now so going with CC is a better option. However CC doesn't guarantee a seat for PNV while PDECat probably is better.

3: Join the current PNV-CC coalition. This would guarantee seats for both PDECat and PNV, however CC has a lot of differences with PDECat on independence (they even suppported article 155)

4: Run alone. A last resort option. This probably means that they get 0 seats unless they have a very good election night.

In terms of leaders, it seems ERC's coalition will run Oriol Junqueras (former deputy premier of Catalonia, now in jail). Compromis' coalition will probably run whoever was their MEP until now. And the PNV coalition will run their current MEP Izaskun Bilbao.

No idea who PDECat plans on running
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #439 on: January 13, 2019, 02:42:48 am »

Austria EU poll:



Turnout:

45% will definitely vote
37% will probably vote
13% will probably not vote
  5% will definitely not vote

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Der-grosse-Kanzler-Test/363497987
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tack50
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« Reply #440 on: January 13, 2019, 07:17:10 pm »

And just in time, we finally get our first proper poll by a proper pollster (not the CIS stuff)

PSOE-S&D: 22.1% (14)
PP-EPP: 18.5% (11)
Cs-ALDE: 18.2% (11)
UP-GUE/NGL: 15.6% (10)
Vox-NI: 13% (Cool

ERC-Bildu-BNG: 5.2% (3)
PDECat-Crida-PNV-CC: 3% (1)
European Spring (Compromís-ChA-NC-Més): 2.2% (1)

Others: 1.7%
Blank: 1.2%

http://electomania.es/sociometrica-el-psoe-ganaria-las-europeas-vox-conseguiria-8-eurodiputados/
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DavidB.
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« Reply #441 on: January 14, 2019, 04:02:45 pm »

Vox-NI: 13% (Cool
Cool is exactly my mood when I see this. Definitely think they're heading to ENF rather than NI though.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #442 on: January 14, 2019, 04:12:06 pm »

That seems like quite a poor number for C's though?
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« Reply #443 on: January 14, 2019, 06:23:42 pm »

Btw,
The far right in France is going to suffer a lot (if we don't consider Wauquiez as rightwing). Given the recent special elections, it is quite likely the National Front will at least lose 10 points.

The RN has been steadily rising in the polls ever since Macron's popularity had been waning and went from 17% to 23% over the last 6 months.
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tack50
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« Reply #444 on: January 14, 2019, 09:57:17 pm »

That seems like quite a poor number for C's though?

Actually, it seems to be around their polling average. Then again this particular pollster (Sociométrica) generally gives Cs good numbers so probably not the best of news.

Vox-NI: 13% (Cool
Cool is exactly my mood when I see this. Definitely think they're heading to ENF rather than NI though.

To be fair Cool is pretty much the opposite thing to my mood seeing them Tongue

I do think they are probably more likely to join ECR than ENF though. It seems like a better fit for them imo.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #445 on: January 16, 2019, 05:09:24 am »

France, Ifop poll

- Without a "Yellow Vest" list
LREM - 23% (+5 since december)
RN - 21% (-3)
LR - 10% (-1)
FI - 9.5% (+0.5)
DLF - 7.5% (-0.5)
EELV - 6.5% (-1.5)
Others under the 5% threshold (PS at 4%, Hamon at 2.5%)

- With a "Yellow Vest" list
LREM - 23% (+5)
RN - 18.5% (-4.5)
LR - 10% (-1)
Yellow Vest - 7.5%
FI - 7% (-2)
EELV - 6.5% (-1.5)
DLF - 6% (-2)
Others under the 5% threshold (PS at 4.5%, Hamon at 2.5%)
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Diouf
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« Reply #446 on: January 18, 2019, 07:01:30 am »

Quote
Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will run in the European Parliament election in May, he announced Thursday.

“At my lovely age, I’ve decided out of a sense of responsibility to head for Europe where there is a lack of deep thinking about the world," said Berlusconi, 82, in Sardinia on the first stop of his campaign tour, Ansa reported.

https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-silvio-berlusconi-to-run-in-european-election/


European Commissioner Corina Cretu will rune for the EP for the party set up by former prime minister Victor Ponta – Pro Romania. Ponta nominated Cretu as commissioner back in 2014, where she had also run as PSD lead candidate for the party in the EP elections.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #447 on: January 18, 2019, 11:48:57 am »

So far, 3 parties to the Right of the FPÖ have announced their candidacies for EU Parliament.

* EU-NO !
* EU Exit Party
* The Voice

All of them will have to collect the 2.600 signatures between mid-March and mid-April to be on the ballot. I assume both anti-EU lists will make it, splitting the votes between them and taking some support away from the FPÖ.

"The Voice" (VOX) is a party of a former FPÖ member, who got expelled from the party because of Nazi postings. Even if he collects the 2.600 signatures (which I seriously doubt), this party would likely be banned for being unconstitutional.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #448 on: January 18, 2019, 12:23:03 pm »

"Yellow vest" party would be really dumb imo. Not only is the movement totally ideologically incoherent; but, unlike M5S it is supposed to be all over the place. Also, a "Yellow vest" party implies "Yellow vest leaders" which is also totally counter to what the movement was about, as you can see in the response to all of the alleged spokesmen who got media profiles.
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tack50
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« Reply #449 on: January 18, 2019, 12:56:15 pm »

"Yellow vest" party would be really dumb imo. Not only is the movement totally ideologically incoherent; but, unlike M5S it is supposed to be all over the place. Also, a "Yellow vest" party implies "Yellow vest leaders" which is also totally counter to what the movement was about, as you can see in the response to all of the alleged spokesmen who got media profiles.

Yeah, reminds me of how sometimes people here speculated in 2011 whether the 15M movement would evolve into something.

Then again it did eventually lead to the formation of Podemos though. But the Yellow Vest protests seem a lot less ideological than the 15M ones (or stuff like Occupy Wall Street)

In any case if the Yellow Vests do evolve into something else they definitely won't make it in 2019. 2022 Presidential election at best. I imagine they would look a lot like M5S in Italy though.
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