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Nanwe
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« Reply #100 on: February 12, 2015, 04:31:56 am »

(Thanks Velasco, I will try, although I'm busy at the moment with my thesis about the French 4th Republic)

Have you seen El País' latest poll? It only took them one day for the PSOE to dismiss Gomez and El Pais has a "poll" showing how much that has benefited the party (with a crazy polling result for C's). Either the most BS poll ever or the most efficient polling system in history. I'm inclined towards the former.

And I used to take Metroscopia as a serious pollster... Now it's the worst, not even La Razón's polls are so bad.
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Velasco
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« Reply #101 on: February 12, 2015, 05:07:06 am »

Good luck with your thesis. Julio is busy and I have to prepare an exam too. I think this weekend I'll try to make a summary of parties and candidates running in Andalusia. That election should deserve a thread in its own, but there's no time. I'm retouching a map I made of the 2012 election, anyway.


Have you seen El País' latest poll? It only took them one day for the PSOE to dismiss Gomez and El Pais has a "poll" showing how much that has benefited the party (with a crazy polling result for C's). Either the most BS poll ever or the most efficient polling system in history. I'm inclined towards the former.

And I used to take Metroscopia as a serious pollster... Now it's the worst, not even La Razón's polls are so bad.

I already commented that. Metroscopia is fairly unreliable, indeed. I think C's is growing, but 12% nationwide is pure fantasy. I doubt they are going to win seats next month in Andalusia while the UPyD might be on the verge; soon we'll see.

El País is already campaigning for him. Metroscopia conducted an "urgency" (if not "science-fiction") poll immediately after the dismissal placing PSOE first in voting intention, with Podemos falling to third place. While Ángel Gabilondo is far better person than Tomás Gómez and maybe better candidate, he's not well known by voters.   
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« Reply #102 on: February 12, 2015, 08:51:56 am »

Yes, Metroscopia is officially a joke.

The PSOE is in the way to "PASOKization", not because of the dismissal of Tomás Gómez (he was a horrible candidate and person whom I have been fighting against since last year), but because this decision comes late and, like Dani's said, has been handled clumsily. Now, expect Gómez to keep salendering Pedro Sánchez every day in the media.

César Luena has said that Gómez was dismissed yestarday for "internal instability" reasons. I've talked to many people in the PSM and they tell me that the main reason was because of problems in some towns like Aranjuez, Leganés and, specially, Parla, but also because some people had been reporting that the PSM has been buying votes since Gómez lost in 2011, and that includes me; but Gómez hasn't been dismissed because of my report, no; sources tell me that militants of the PSOE in Valdemoro (a town in Southern Madrid) are to praise for the dismissal of Gómez (and I was the person who encouraged those militants to report Tongue): their appeal to the PSOE caused a investigation file to be opened against Gómez.

So, Parla, Valdemoro, Aranjuez, Tram and Leganés seem to be the reasons of the decision taken by Pedro Sánchez.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #103 on: February 12, 2015, 09:04:58 am »

Yes, Metroscopia is officially a joke.

The PSOE is in the way to "PASOKization", not because of the dismissal of Tomás Gómez (he was a horrible candidate and person whom I have been fighting against since last year), but because this decision comes late and, like Dani's said, has been handled clumsily. Now, expect Gómez to keep salendering Pedro Sánchez every day in the media.

César Luena has said that Gómez was dismissed yestarday for "internal instability" reasons. I've talked to many people in the PSM and they tell me that the main reason was because of problems in some towns like Aranjuez, Leganés and, specially, Parla, but also because some people had been reporting that the PSM has been buying votes since Gómez lost in 2011, and that includes me; but Gómez hasn't been dismissed because of my report, no; sources tell me that militants of the PSOE in Valdemoro (a town in Southern Madrid) are to praise for the dismissal of Gómez (and I was the person who encouraged those militants to report Tongue): their appeal to the PSOE caused a investigation file to be opened against Gómez.

So, Parla, Valdemoro, Aranjuez, Tram and Leganés seem to be the reasons of the decision taken by Pedro Sánchez.

Back when I lived in Alcalá (and where my parents live), Gomez is particularly disliked, his lovely tendency towards destruction of any independent thought within the PSM resulted in the destruction of a joint UPyD-PSOE effort to dislodge Bello from the city's mayoralty and the PP alongside it. Sadly Gomez killed it. Not only that, but somehow -but sadly i don't know the specifics, Bello was capable of furthering his majority by adding to the PP the whackos of España200 and IU.

In any case, looking at the polls in and outside the Corredor del Henares, the PSM is going down, Podemos is capturing its left-wing vote, UPyD and C's can and will from its right and in the meanwhile, voting (I'd say) is less solidified in the CAM than in other regions. Of course if Rajoy picks Aguirre as candidate for mayor of Madrid, things might still change a lot.

As for Andalucia. Andalucia, as Politikon neatly puts it, is where the worst vices of the PSOE show up, understandably, and the fact that the PSOE has become so rooted there because it's been wiped out elsewhere is no good for the party. Soon enough, PSOE might have to rename itself Partido Regionalista Socialista (Extremeño-)Andaluz
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Velasco
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« Reply #104 on: February 13, 2015, 12:46:34 pm »

University of Granada poll (Andalusia, regional elections).

PSOE 35.2%, PP 29.1%, Podemos 14.9%, IU 8.4%, C's 4.6%, UPyD 3.1%, PA 2.4%

Sample size: 1200. Fieldwork: Jan 8-31.
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Velasco
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« Reply #105 on: February 14, 2015, 02:27:01 pm »
« Edited: February 16, 2015, 06:43:26 am by Velasco »

Andalusia 2015:

The Andalusian election was called on January 27 and will be held on Sunday March 22. Regional premier Susana Díaz (PSOE) decided to move forward the election one year before the end of term in 2016, stating the "instability" of the PSOE-IU coalition government and the lack of trust towards her coalition partners as the main reasons to dissolve the Andalusian Parliament.

The 2012 election:

Img


Leading party by municipality. The IU colour has been changed from from purple in the first version of the map to lime green, making it coincide with the regional organisation's logo. From now on, purple will be assigned to Podemos.

Results:

PP 40.66% (+2.21%) winning 50 seats (+3)
PSOE-A 39.52% (-8.89%) winning 47 seats (-9)
IULV-CA 11.34% (+4.28%) winning 12 seats (+6)
UPyD 3.35% (+2.73%) winning 0 seats (nc)
PA 2.5% (-0.26%) winning 0 seats (nc)
Equo 0.53% (-0.05%) winning 0 seats (nc)

The 2012 election placed the Popular Party (PP) first, but it fell short of a majority by 5 seats. That result left ambivalent interpretations for the conservative force. It was an historic outcome because, by the first time in 30 years, the Andalusian branch of PP was able to become in the largest party ahead of the socialists. However, the outcome was a failure because of the high previous expectations. PP had already beaten PSOE by a 9% margin in the 2011 general election; nearly all polls were predicting a PP majority and no less than a 6-7% lead.  Finally, the outcome made nearly impossible for veteran regional leader Javier Arenas to become in the next regional premier. The frustrated expectations for change in Andalusia were a huge disappointment for a then victorious PP, as well as a warning bell for the Rajoy administration in Madrid. The election took place in the first months of the incumbent PP government and the ruling party was beginning to be unpopular due to the implementation of tough economic measures. While the Rajoy administration apparently took the austerity path by conviction, such measures were in open contradiction with the 2011 electoral platform, which promised an economic recovery without prescribing the bitterest medicines (such as cuts in social services and tax increases). A new labour reform was passed. Remarkably, the sponsor was a member of the Andalusian PP: Fátima Báñez, minister for employment. The reform gave employers great facilities to fire workers, as well as a de facto suppression of collective agreements which supposed the weakening of trade union power.

Despite having been defeated by a narrow 1% margin, PSOE performed better than expected. José Antonio Griñán, the then incumbent regional premier, achieved a "moral victory". Griñán proved to be right when he decided not following a previous pattern of making coincide the regional elections with the Spanish general election; the latter had been called in advance by Zapatero and set in November 2011. The regional premier was able to avoid a sound defeat of disastrous consequences for his party, already in a state of depression as a consequence of the 2011 electoral catastrophes. Besides, he was able to remain in office with the support of the United Left (IU), which whom the Andalusian socialists reached an agreement to form a coalition government. However, Griñán was touched by the repercussions of the ERE scandal*, which later provoked his resignation in the summer of 2013. Immediately after (September 2013), Griñán was appointed senator by the Andalusian Parliament in representation of the region.

*In order to save time, I'll quote El Caudillo's blog (you can read the regional profile, too):

https://welections.wordpress.com/2012/03/28/andalusia-and-asturias-spain-2012/

Quote
In Andalusia, the regional PSOE government finds itself embroiled in EREgate. EREgate involves the subsidization of early retirement in government-funded companies by the PSOE. In this case, around 3% of early retirement cases were found to be fraudulent and involved roughly €9 million. The government paid excessive early retirements or paid early retirements to employees who never actually worked for a particular company (ed: those people usually tended to be PSOE supporters or part of the PSOE clientele). The PP and IU in the Andalusian parliament have seen their calls for a commission of inquiry refused by the PSOE majority, which claims that claims are being investigated by the Employment Ministry alongside the courts. The PP claims that the PSOE is covering up a wider case which involves the current president of the community, José Antonio Griñán. […]

The main beneficiary of PSOE's decline was the IU, increasing more than 4% (about 1/2 of PSOE's losses). In comparison with the result of the 2011 general election in Andalusia, PP suffered significant losses (mainly to abstention), whereas the PSOE-IU left block remained stable (in terms of raw vote) with some internal redistribution between both parties. The Andalusian IU reached its electoral peak in the mid 90's, remarkably when former mayor of Córdoba Julio Anguita was the IU national leader (19.3% in 1994, 14.1% in 1996). Anguita himself ran in the 1986 elections getting 17.9% of the vote. The IU declined sharply since then, falling to 7-8% in subsequent elections held in the 00's. The IU's increase in 2012 was arguably due a favourable context, rather than the ability of its regional leadership (besides, the candidate Diego Valderas was miles away from the charismatic Julio Anguita in terms of popular appeal).

The result was disappointing for the UPyD, which failed to win seats and received less votes than in the 2011 general election without benefiting from PP and PSOE losses. If UPyD was replicating the 2011 result, it could have won 2 seats in the regional parliament. The regionalist Andalusian Party (PA), which had parliamentary representation in past elections and even joined coalition governments with PSOE, was unable to recover support and got a poor result. The ecologist Equo only got a tiny 0.5%, falling from 1% in November 2011.


Electoral system:

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected in 8 multi-member districts, which correspond to the 8 Andalusian provinces. Each of the region's provinces are allocated 8 members, while the remaining 45 seats are allocated on the basis of population. Seats for each party are allocated using D'Hondt closed-list proportional representation. Only lists above a 3% of votes cast in each district are entitled to enter in the distribution. In practice, a list needs more than 5% of valid votes to win seats in the most populous provinces, Seville and Malaga.

Distribution of seats by province:

Seville 18, Málaga 17, Cádiz 15, Granada 13, Almería 12, Córdoba 12, Huelva 11, Jaén 11.
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Velasco
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« Reply #106 on: February 16, 2015, 06:05:11 am »

Parties and candidates:

Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A)

Incumbent premier Susana Díaz seeks reelection. She took office in September 2013, after the renunciation of José Antonio Griñán in July; subsequently, she replaced him as secretary general of the Andalusian socialists in November 2013. As the head of the main socialist federation (1/4 of PSOE membership is Andalusian), she has became in one of the most influential figures of the Spanish socialists. Arguably she played an important role in the Pedro Sánchez's rise to the PSOE's leadership. Despite she appeared neutral in the socialist primary held in July 2014, she was said to be behind Pedro Sánchez's landslide in Andalusia (61% of the vote). Immediately after the Sánchez's victory, it seemed to exist a good empathy between him and Díaz. However, subsequent turmoil in PSOE has been accompanied by rumours on Susana Díaz's ambition to run at the head of PSOE in the next general election, which she refuses stating that her priorities are Andalusia and her next maternity (she's expected to give birth by July).

Despite her young age, Susana Díaz (Seville, 1974) has a long political career in the Andalusian branch of PSOE. At the age of 18 she joined the Socialist Youth, where she held the post of secretary for organisation. She was elected councillor in the Seville City Hall in 1999. Since then, she has served in various political offices (national deputy, member of the regional parliament, senator), as well as in several party positions. In May 2012 Griñán appointed her regional minister for Presidency and Equality.

Susana Díaz will top the list in the province of Seville. The rest of the top candidates are experienced politicians, although all who might be affected by the ongoing investigation of the ERE scandal have been excluded. The socialist platform incorporates three unfinished laws outlined by the coalition government, all of them IU demands which PSOE takes up: citizen's participation, "democratic memory" (Franco's victims) and a public credit institute. 

Popular Party (PP)

The candidate is Juan Manuel Moreno (1970), regional leader since May 2014 replacing Mayor of Seville Juan Ignacio Zoido. Juan Manuel Moreno led the PP's Youth (the "New Generations") and was councillor in the Malaga Town Hall, member of the Andalusian Parliament and of the Congress of Deputies. Between the PP's victory in November 2011 until his appointment at the head of the Andalusian Populares, he was secretary of Social Services and Equality in the Rajoy administration. His main handicaps are a low level of knowledge among Andalusian and a controversy around his curriculum vitae (his academic qualifications lack of official recognition). Juan Manuel Moreno seeks the centre, appealing to "moderate policies" in opposition to the "radicality risk" represented by Podemos and IU. The candidate will top the list in Málaga, while the inclusion of former regional leader in the 4th place of the Almería's list caused some surprise.

United Left The Greens-Assembly for Andalusia (IULV-CA)

Antonio Maíllo (1966), who is the IU's regional coordinator since June 2013 in replacement of the then Deputy Premier Diego Valderas, is the candidate to preside La Junta. He has a degree in Classical Philology and is a secondary school teacher. Left-wing activist since the age of 18, he was councillor in Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and Aracena (Huelva) and joined PCE in 1996. Maíllo was nominated candidate in a primary election held in July 2014. He had a critical stance of the coalition government and has good empathy with deputy Alberto Garzón, who will be the IU's candidate in the general election. Antonio Maíllo will top the list in Seville, in replacement of Marinaleda mayor Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo. The Sánchez Gordillo's party (CUT, Workers' Unity Candidacy), decided to leave the IU some days ago and not taking part in the primary process to select candidates. Apparently, the IU leadership felt somewhat relieved by that decision; the Maíllo's candidacy will seek to attract urban vote and the rural 'revolutionary' profile of the CUT didn't help.

Podemos

MEP Teresa Rodríguez (1981) was proclaimed candidate after a primary election in which she topped a "unity list" agreed with the Pablo Iglesias' team. Teresa Rodríguez is a young activist born in Rota (Cádiz), where is located a Naval Station which is funded by the USA and has US military personnel. She joined a movement against the presence of US military in Rota at a very young age, joined the IU at the age of 18 and later the Anticapitalist Left. Teresa Rodríguez has a degree in Arab Philology and is secondary school teacher.

The candidate will top the list in Cádiz, while people close to the Podemos' national leadership will top the list in other provinces: art historian Lucía Ayala in Almería; sociologist David Moscoso in Córdoba; professor of Civil Law Luis Serrano in Granada; and Begoña Gutiérrez in Seville. The Podemos list integrates members of Equo, with the candidate elect of the ecologist organisation running in the 3rd place for Córdoba. Also, several members of the Sánchez Gordillo's CUT will run, although controversial rural union leader Diego Cañamero was excluded by petition of the Podemos' leadership in Madrid. Both Equo and CUT preserve their character of independent organisations. On the other hand, Podemos elected regional executives past weekend except in Andalusia, due to the proximity of the elections.

Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)

Lawyer Martín de la Herrán (1976) will repeat as candidate and will top the list in Málaga.

Citizens (C's)

The candidate is Juan Marín (1962), Deputy Mayor of Sanlúcar (Cádiz). Among his goals are strengthen the party's regional structure and offering Andalusians a new alternative "viable, sensible and regenerative".

Andalusian Party (PA)

Antonio Jesús Ruiz (1973), secretary general of the PA in replacement of Pilar González (unsuccessful candidate for Mayor of Seville), will run as candidate trying to improve the party's fortune in this elections. Ruiz has been Deputy Mayor in Puerto de Santa María (Cádiz). The Andalusian Party defines its ideology as "nationalist, federalist and progressive".

Vox

Former judge Francisco Serrano is the candidate of the Vox Party, a PP's hardcore conservative splinter which seemingly is accentuating an ultra Catholic profile. Serrano is quite controversial because of his statements on alleged false complaints about gender-based violence ("woman be honest...") and the so-called "gender ideology" which, in his words, brings to the destruction of family.
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Velasco
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« Reply #107 on: February 21, 2015, 09:42:21 am »
« Edited: February 21, 2015, 09:53:34 am by Velasco »

Professor and former minister for Education Ángel Gabilondo has been appointed by the PSOE executive committee candidate for the regional elections in Madrid. PSOE members had the chance to express their opinion on the suitability of the potential candidates and Gabilondo received an overwhelming support. Aside Gabilondo, who is an independent, the other postulant was Madrid councillor Pedro Zerolo, a gay activist. In representation of Tomás Gómez's supporters, MRA Amparo Valcarce withdrew her candidacy and backed Zerolo.

Former IU MRA and candidate elect Tania Sánchez joined Equo and other movements to create a candidacy called "Assembly for Madrid". It's unclear if they'll reach some kind of agreement with Podemos. Meanwhile IUCM spokepersons Ángel Pérez and Gregorio Gordo have been disowned by the IU federal executive, although that means little in practical terms. Both IU and the new Assembly for Madrid have little chances of getting into the Madrid Regional Assembly running in their own. Additionally, Ciudadanos is on the rise in Madrid and the rest of Spain if we have to trust in polls (which is not easy).

Ciudadanos hired a prestigious economist called Luis Garicano; he and C's leader Albert Rivera presented the party's economic platform in Madrid a couple of days ago. Apparently, Ciudadanos is about to become in a centrist Podemos in order to carry former PP voters from abstention. It seems clear that Rivera has the support of some influential media, as well as certain Catalan entrepreneurs.

Edit: I misnamed Mr. Garicano Tongue
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« Reply #108 on: February 21, 2015, 10:39:56 am »

I've been told that Tania Sánchez will be the candidate of a Podemos-Equo-"Convocatoria por Madrid" coalition.
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« Reply #109 on: February 22, 2015, 09:10:57 am »

What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!
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Velasco
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« Reply #110 on: February 27, 2015, 02:09:25 am »
« Edited: February 27, 2015, 06:35:47 am by Velasco »

February polls. Trust them at your own peril.

General election:

My Word / Cadena SER

Podemos 24.6%, PP 22.5%, PSOE 19.5%, C's 13.4%, UPyD 3.3%, IU 3%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-11. Sample size: 1000 (online)

Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco

PP 29.6%, Podemos 25.8%, PSOE 20.1%, C's 7.3%, IU 4.1%, CiU 2.6%, ERC 2.4%, UPyD 1.8%, PNV 1.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-12. Sample size: 1800 (phone calls)

Sigma Dos / Valencia region (general election):

PP 31.2%, Podemos 26.7%, PSOE 17.5%, C's 5.8%, IU 5.1%, Compromís 5%, UPyD 2.9%

Regional elections:

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid regional election (129 seats, 5% threshold):

PP 38.8% (59 seats), Podemos 23.6% (35), PSOE 17.3% (26), C's 6% (9), UPyD 4.6% (-), IU 4.5% (-), Others 5.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 12-13. Sample size: 1600

Metroscopia / El País

Madrid (129):

PP 28% (38), Podemos 24.6% (34), PSOE 17% (23), C's 15.8% (21), IU 5.5% (7), UPyD 5% (6), Others 4.1%

Fieldwork: Feb 19-20. Sample size: 1200 (phone)

Vaubán / Extremadura7Días

Extremadura (65 seats):

PSOE 33.4% (24), PP 32.6% (24), Podemos 12.7% (9), UPyD 7.6% (5), IU 5.1% (3), C's 3.2% (-), Regionalists 2.1% (-), Others 3.3%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-20. Sample size: 1067 (phone)

Local elections:

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid (57 councillors, 5% threshold)

PP 40.1% (26), PSOE 21.5% (14), Podemos/Ganemos 14.9% (10), C's 6.5% (4), IU 5% (3), UPyD 4.8% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 12-13. Sample size: 800

Feedback / La Vanguardia

Barcelona (41 councillors, 5% threshold)

CiU 25.3% (11/12), Guanyem 21.4% (10), PP 13.7% (6) PSC 10.7% (5), ERC 10.3% (4/5), C's 8.1% (3), CUP 4.1% (0/2)

Fieldwork: Feb 16-19. Sample size: 700 (phone)

What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!

I have not a clue.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #111 on: February 27, 2015, 09:01:54 am »

What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!

The issue with this is that essentially all (or most) polls are bogus. Now besides that, it's impossible to say, there has not been such kind of parliamentary instability predicted by the polls in Spain since the Second Republic, so there's literally no proper historical precedent (those who remember the IIa and are alive were children at the time most likely) of a situation like this in Spain. Which shows in the fact, that even if we pretend that polls aren't being cooked up maliciously, pollsters don't quite know what to do.

Asking what'll happen at the moment is like asking someone to look into some kind of crystal ball to see the future. Someone could say something, but it'd be either very obvious or very bogus.
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« Reply #112 on: February 28, 2015, 08:51:00 am »

I would like to ask the opinion of our fellow Spaniards on the matter of C's : do you, as a gut-feeling and knowing what you know about your country's present political situation, feel that they are more realistically polling 5-6 or 13-15 nationally ? Because it seems to me like they are polling dramatically in general election polls, but the numbers just don't add up when you take it to the regional levels, a bit like Podemos, as a matter of fact.
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Velasco
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« Reply #113 on: February 28, 2015, 12:58:26 pm »

I think it's more realistic assuming that C's is actually polling 5-6 nationwide. On the other hand, I have little doubt that the "window of opportunity" for the Rosa Díez's UPyD has passed and Albert Rivera (like it or not) is the man of the moment, that is to say, the representative of "new politics" for moderate and centre-right voters angry with establishment politicians whom deem Podemos too radical. My impression is that at some point in the near future UPyD and C's could merge or, given the current trend, it's possible that the latter will end absorbing the former.

As for Podemos, I think the Andalusian election is key for them, as well as the result in Madrid. Podemos is still lacking of candidates and the left in Madrid is currently a terrible mess, with the IU broken in several pieces and the PSOE struggling to survive with a new candidate who, on the other hand, I think it's excellent. I don't mean that Ángel Gabilondo is going to achieve a great electoral success (it's nearly impossible, given the pitiful state of Madrid's PSOE), but a man who quotes Kant in public meetings is rather unusual in Spanish politics and he looks so different from our average politicians that I can't help but feeling some kind of empathy. 
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FredLindq
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« Reply #114 on: February 28, 2015, 05:08:36 pm »

My quesrion is, how will the parties work out functioning majoritets in this Political landscape?!
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Velasco
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« Reply #115 on: February 28, 2015, 06:29:29 pm »

Andalusian election polls.

Deimos, University of Granada.

PSOE 33.4% (39 seats), PP 25.7% (33), Podemos 22.3% (25), C's 7.8% (7), IU 6.1% (5), UPyD 1.5% (-), PA 1.5% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 18-25. Sample size: 1539

Celeste-Tel / La Opinión de Málaga

PSOE 36.7% (48), PP 27.4% (35), Podemos 14.7% (17), IU 7.4% (6), C's 6.1% (3), PA 3.1% (-), UPyD 2.6% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 12-20. Sample size: 2400

IMC / ABC Sevilla

PSOE 37.8% (44-48), PP 30.7% (39-42), Podemos 12% (12-14), C's 5% (3-5), IU 4.7% (3-5), UPyD 2.4% (-), PA 1.1%

Fieldwork: Feb 16-21. Sample size: 1100

General election

Simple Lógica (Gallup partner)

Podemos 29.6%, PP 26.8%, PSOE 17.8%, C's 8.5%, UPyD 3.6%, IU 3.4%, CiU 3%, PNV 1%, Others 6.2%

Filedwork: Feb 2-9. Sample size: 1058

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop15003_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Take a pound of salt.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #116 on: March 01, 2015, 06:01:07 am »

Note: This is not a poll. This is the prediction that Electomanía (a online group of so-called electoral experts) and its users have made for the Andalucian elections. I think it's relatively spot on.

Img
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« Reply #117 on: March 01, 2015, 09:56:12 am »
« Edited: March 01, 2015, 10:55:28 am by Velasco »

Another Andalusian poll. A certain Mr. Toharia, who is the Metroscopia's chief, seems to be in love with Mr. Rivera, the leader of Ciudadanos.

Metroscopia / El País

PSOE 34.6% (40-44), PP 22.7% (27-31), Podemos 16.7% (18-22), C's 11% (8-12), IU 6.8% (5-9), UPyD 2.8% (-), Others 4.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 23-24. Sample size: 1000 (phone)

Murcia (regional election)

CEMOP / La Verdad

PP 39.4% (21-22 seats), PSOE 21.9% (10-11), Podemos 17.5% (8-9), C's 11.4% (3-4), IU 5.8% (1), UPyD 3.1% (-)

Fieldwork:  Feb 2-13. Sample size: 1458

Murcia is a PP stronghold and the ruling conservative party would have a -20.9% swing. If that poll reflects accurately the trend in the Murcia region, then Ciudadanos would be taking nearly all the space between PP and PSOE, while the UPyD might be condemned to dissapear. Murcia was the second best region for UPyD in the EP elections, only behind Madrid. However, I will believe that C's surge when I see it. The regional assembly has 45 seats, so Ciudadanos would have the key in the formation of the government.

General election:

Invymark / La Sexta

PP 27.8%, Podemos 23.6%, PSOE 21.5%, C's 6.4%, UPyD 4%, IU 3.8%, CiU 2.8%, ERC 2.8%, PNV 1.1%, Others 6%

Fieldwork: Feb 26



Note: This is not a poll. This is the prediction that Electomanía (a online group of so-called electoral experts) and its users have made for the Andalucian elections. I think it's relatively spot on.

As you say, that is the average prediction made by a group of poll junkies (I'd say it's 'amateur' instead of 'expert' people and certainly those 'barometers' lack of professional methodology). Sometimes such predictions can be more spotted on than actual polls, and our polling industry is untrusted for good reasons. Anyway, I suspect that political leanings influence people's predictions and the percentage for "others" is way too high (aside the Vox Party and the animal rights PACMA, the rest of forces are too insignificant).
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« Reply #118 on: March 04, 2015, 05:27:06 pm »

Shocking Catalan polls. GESOP / El Periódico.

Parliament of Catalonia (135 seats):

CiU 20.1% (31-32), ERC 17.3% (27-28), C's 17.8% (23-24), PP 9.8% (12-13), Podem 9.8% (11-12), PSC 7.9% (10-11), CUP 7.1% (9-10), ICV 6.9% (8-9)

The sample size is small (800) and the poll was conducted between Feb 20 and 26.

CiU and ERC down because the stagnation of the separatist process, while the radical left CUP is on the rise. C's would be the second party in popular vote, but gets less seats than ERC due to malapportionment. Podemos is down from the last GESOP poll and PSC falls to the 6th place.

General election (47 seats):

CiU 17% (10), Podem 20.5% (9), ERC 13.7% (7-8), C's 15.7% (7), PP 11.9% (6), PSC 11.3% (5-6), ICV 3.6% (1), CUP 3.4% (1)

Podemos would be the party with the most votes in Catalonia in a general election and C's would come third, but malapportionment favours again nationalist parties (CiU and ERC). Terrible results for PP and PSOE and ICV-EUiA , reduced to a single seat. The separatist CUP has never contested Spanish elections, and I have no reason to think that the next will be different.

Sample size: 800. Fieldwork: Feb 20-26.
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« Reply #119 on: March 05, 2015, 07:59:27 am »
« Edited: March 05, 2015, 01:50:49 pm by Velasco »

CIS / Andalusian elections.

PSOE 34.7% (44), PP 25.7% (34), Podemos 19.2% (21-22), IU 6.6% (4-5), C's 6.4% (5), UPyD 2.3% (-), PA 1.2% (-)

Sample size: 3180 (face to face). Fieldwork: Jan 30 - Feb 17

The Parliament of Andalusia has 109 seats (majority= 55).

Direct vote intention (raw data): PSOE 25.5%, Podemos 13.7%, PP 12.8%, IU 3.8%, C's 3-5%,  UPyD 1.7%, PA 0.8%, Others 0.6%, blank 4.7%, null 0.7%, won't vote 11%, don't know 16.7%, don't answer 4.6%

By province.

Almería: PSOE 36.3% (5), PP 25.9% (4), Podemos 14.4% (2), C's 6.6% (1), IU 4.4% (-), UPyD 2.3% (-)

Cádiz: PSOE 29.8% (5), Podemos 25.3% (4), PP 21.8% (4), C's 6.9% (1), IU 6.7% (1), UPyD 3.4% (-), PA 2% (-)

Córdoba: PSOE 35.9% (5), PP 25.9% (4), Podemos 18.3% (2-3), IU 6.1% (0-1), C's 4-9% (-), UPyD 1.8% (-), PA 1.6% (-)

Granada: PSOE 34.4% (5), PP 28.5% (4), Podemos 15.2% (2), IU 6.8% (1), C's 6.5% (1), UPyD 3.2% (-)

Huelva: PSOE 39.4% (5), PP 30.1% (4), Podemos 19.6% (2), IU 5.8% (-), C's 2.7% (-), UPyD 1%

Jaén: PSOE 37.3% (5), PP 31% (4), Podemos 17% (2), IU 5.6% (-), C's 4.8% (-), UPyD 1.4%

Málaga: PSOE 31.6% (6), PP 30.5% (6), Podemos 17.1% (3), IU 6.9% (1), C's 6.7% (1), UPyD 2.4% (-)

Sevilla: PSOE 37.2% ( 8 ), Podemos 21.2% (4), PP 20.2% (4), C's 7.8% (1), IU 7.7% (1), UPyD 2.1% (-), PA 1.9% (-)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3053mar_A.pdf
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« Reply #120 on: March 05, 2015, 10:36:06 am »

How much would you say Podemos has to cross in Andalucía to get respect nationally and the feeling that they are a worthwhile force ? 20 % ? 15 %

And why is Cádiz their best result ? Is it a left-wing stronghold in general ? I always thought of it rather as a sort of Nice or Toulon conservative city, but I admit I never looked into it.
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« Reply #121 on: March 05, 2015, 02:41:10 pm »
« Edited: March 05, 2015, 02:47:56 pm by Velasco »

It'd be better for them getting 20% of the vote, although any result above 15% would be good given the circumstances.

As for Cádiz, there's a difference between the provincial capital and the rest of the province. As you can see in the 2012 election map that I posted before, PP won in the main curban centres (Jerez, Cádiz and Algeciras), as well as in the Bay of Cádiz municipalities (except Puerto Real, which is an industrial town with a shipbuilding industry in decline due to competence from Asian countries) and the Bay of Algeciras. However, the rural municipalities lean PSOE and there are a couple of IU strongholds (Trebujena). In the November 2011 general election, PP got a strong result in the province (47.1%), but in the 2012 regional election it fell to 40.5% getting less votes than the sum of PSOE and IU (35.6% and 12.7%, respectively). In the 2014 EP elections, PP came second behind PSOE and only got 23.6% (in percentage, it's a half of the support they got in 2011).

As for the the city of Cádiz, it has been a PP stronghold in the last 20 years (Teófila Martínez is the mayoress since 1995), but in the EP elections the conservative party won a weak plurality and it was one of the strongest provincial capitals for Podemos in the country (PP 26%, PSOE 21.8%, Podemos 16.3%, IU 10.9%, UPyD 8.7%). Podemos got 10.7% in the Cádiz province, which was its best provincial result in Andalusia.

I haven't researched in depth why Podemos is strong in Cádiz. A couple of possible factors could be:

a) Cádiz is the Spanish province with the highest unemployment rate; by the end of 2014 it was above 42%.

b) The Podemos candidate (MEP Teresa Rodríguez) is from the Cádiz province.
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« Reply #122 on: March 07, 2015, 11:02:33 am »
« Edited: March 08, 2015, 04:46:59 pm by Velasco »

Mariano Rajoy picked Cristina Cifuentes and Esperanza Aguirre as candidates for regional premier and mayor of Madrid, respectively. Incumbent Madrid premier Ignacio González has been involved in a series of scandals regarding a penthouse he owns in Estepona (Costa del Sol, Málaga) and premium payments to judges through a private compay called Indra. González denounced a conspiracy against him; people in his entourage pointed to a sector of PP wanting to take him off from the race. Ignacio González has been a loyal squire to regional leader Esperanza Aguirre, as well former regional minister Enrique Granados (who is in prison charged with corruption). However, Aguirre remained silent in the controversy around the incumbent premier, seeking to be appointed by Rajoy as mayoral candidate. In any case, it seems that Rajoy made the decision to replace González some time ago. Despite the poor relationship between the Spanish PM and the Madrid regional leader, the decision to appoint Aguirre for the mayoral race responds to pragmatic reasons: she is adored by the PP conservative base and scores better than others in the polls. On the other hand, Cristina Cifuentes is currently the delegate of the Spanish government in Madrid, is a woman of dialogue and moderate, as well as loyal to Rajoy.

In contrast, Mariano Rajoy has gone for continuity in the Valencia region. Incumbent premier Albert Fabra and incumbent mayor of Valencia Rita Barberá will seek reelection.

On the other hand, IU and C's nominated candidates for the Madrid region. Poet Luis García Montero (born in Granada, 1958) will top the IU list in the regional elections after the defection of Tania Sánchez. The new force created by the latter, joined by Equo and other organisations, is still struggling to find a formula to cooperate with Podemos.

The Andalusian campaign started yesterday. I'll copy the brief profile of the main candidates in the English version of El País newspaper. According to that, those candidates represent a "new generation of leaders".

Susana Díaz (PSOE). In the machine room

Born in Seville in 1974, she became Andalusia’s first woman regional premier when she took over from the embattled José Antonio Griñán in 2013. Díaz received her training at different Socialist Party (PSOE) headquarters where she was close to the party’s political machinery. She has served as a councilor, deputy in Congress, regional lawmaker, senator, and is now head of Spain’s largest region.

As premier, Díaz has tried to fight the corruption that has engulfed Andalusia, which came to a head when a judge began investigating the so-called ERE case, a multi-million fraud probe involving the misuse of a public layoff fund.

She decided not to run for PSOE secretary general last year – a post won by Pedro Sánchez. Her public differences with Sánchez, whom she supported, have now become noticeable. She has said she will not run in the party primaries to select a prime ministerial candidate because she wants to continue as Andalusian regional premier. A lawyer, Díaz is married and now pregnant with her first child.


Juan Manuel Moreno (PP). An impossible challenge

Moreno faces an uphill battle, according to the polls, which predict he will not garner the majority of votes that the Popular Party (PP) took under Javier Arenas in 2012. Then the PP won 50 seats but was five short of an absolute majority in the Andalusian parliament. The Socialists were able to convince the IU to form a partnership government, which remained in place for nearly three years.

Born in Barcelona in 1970 to Andalusian parents, Moreno became the PP leader in the region just a year ago. Before that he served as secretary of state for social services and equality under then-Health Minister Ana Mato.

Antonio Maíllo (IU). A leader with no opposition

Maíllo became United Left (IU) regional coordinator in 2013 following an unusual assembly meeting in which there was no internal bickering nor votes cast against his candidacy. A Córdoba native, he was a political unknown until he became coordinator. He has been with the IU since he was 18 and served as councilor in Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and Aracena (Huelva) – two municipalities where he taught Latin.

Maíllo arrived on the scene shortly before Susana Díaz took over as regional premier but the two did not share the same camaraderie as their predecessors Griñán and previous IU coordinator, Diego Valderas.

Maíllo studied classical philosophy and is the first gay candidate (“that I know of,” he says) to run for regional premier in Andalusia. Besides Latin and Greek, he speaks English and Italian.


Img

Teresa Rodríguez (Podemos). The activist teacher

Podemos was no doubt caught off guard by the announcement of early elections in the region. The formation had no candidate and there were doubts about Rota-native Teresa Rodríguez stepping in. A member of the far-left Anti-Capitalist Left faction of the new political force, she could become the secretary general of Podemos in Andalusia when internal elections are held after the regional race.

She began her political career at 18 when she joined IU, and was on the party’s election slate in 2000. Last year, she was elected euro deputy for Podemos – a post she held for 10 months.

A language and literature teacher, Rodríguez has also been an activist, taking part in protests at the Rota naval base and coming out against the European Constitution.


Juan Marín (Ciudadanos). From business to politics

The most recent of the five to arrive on the political scene, Sanlúcar native Marín says he first got involved in politics in 2007 when a trash strike was in full swing in his home city. “His wife said: ‘Juan, if we don’t do something, we are going to have to move,’” recalls one of his advisors.

After the municipal elections, he formed the Independent Citizens Party of Sanlúcar, based on almost identical ideas to those of Albert Rivera’s Ciudadanos, which he joined in 2011.

After studying labor relations, Marín took over his family jewelry business and is active in local business owners’ associations.

During the 2007 elections, his party won three city council seats and formed a pact with the Socialists that allowed him to serve as deputy mayor of Sanlúcar.


Here, an article on the new emerging force in the Spanish centre-right, stressing the tireless online presence of C's leader Albert Rivera and entitled "How Ciudadanos took on Podemos at their own digital name".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/03/05/inenglish/1425573337_792747.html

Certainly, Podemos has no longer the exclusive of "new politics". On the other hand, the friendliness of media with Ciudadanos is evident. Also, people at PP is starting to worry and launching some clumsy attacks, which the agile and dialectically skilled Rivera has little problem to counteract.
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« Reply #123 on: March 08, 2015, 08:41:31 am »

Time for Metroscopia's poll. And copying Velasco's style.


General election:

Metroscopia / El País

Podemos 22.5%, PSOE 20.2%, PP 18.6%, C's 18.4%, IU 5.6%, UPyD 3.6%, Others 11.1%
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« Reply #124 on: March 08, 2015, 03:14:41 pm »
« Edited: March 09, 2015, 02:59:28 am by Velasco »

Albert Rivera: The Charming Naranjito Man.

Img

Some columnist at eldiario.es nicknamed Albert Rivera "the IBEX 35 Prince Charming". The reasons to explain C's meteoric rise are the support from the economic establishment (the employment of liberal economists Luis Garicano and Manuel Conthe would have reassured IBEX 35 companies); the relative cleanliness of C's (despite certain issues concerning some party members) as opposed to corruption in PP ranks; and that PP has not so much hidden vote as some pollsters used to believe (angry and disillusioned people actually went to abstention).

According to a sociologist quoted in the article, in past Catalan elections C's attracted voters swinging between PP and PSC. However, in the rest of Spain is different. There C's appeals to PP voters wanting a clean party, those moderates whom once were supporters of the UCD and CDS.  C's is placed in the centre-right nationwide, even though back in 2006 its Catalan founders defined Ciutadans as a centre-left social liberal force opposed to peripheral nationalism. The strong support that C's is getting from media (ranging from El País to Pedro J Ramírez, I believe) plays a key role and its motivation is that C's is seen as an option to stem the Podemos rise. Quoting C's propaganda, they represent "the sensible change" as opposed to Rivera's sentence "Podemos is vengeance".  

http://www.eldiario.es/zonacritica/Causas-meteorico-despegue-Albert-Rivera_6_363673650.html

Worthy of mention is that PP spokesman Rafael Hernando has been already campaigning for Albert Rivera. When Hernando attacked Ciudadanos by calling it "naranjito" (in allusion to the official mascot of the 1982 World Cup held in Spain), actually he was serving Rivera the reply on a plate. The C's leader reacted immediately, taking a photo with the mascot (see above) and sending via Twitter the #YoSoyNaranjito" hashtag, which soon became in a trending topic worldwide.

Anyway, the Metroscopia poll is exaggerating the trend. I won't believe that C's is tied with PP until I see it. A strong dose of scepticism is needed these days, in order to preserve sanity.
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