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Nanwe
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« Reply #1050 on: June 27, 2016, 12:10:35 pm »

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

PP government with C's as junior coalition partner thanks to the support/abstention of PNV (5 seats), CC (1 seat) and Nueva Canaria (1 seat, individual party that however ran with the PSOE in the election but does not answer to its whip iirc)
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ag
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« Reply #1051 on: June 27, 2016, 12:51:34 pm »

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

PP government with C's as junior coalition partner thanks to the support/abstention of PNV (5 seats), CC (1 seat) and Nueva Canaria (1 seat, individual party that however ran with the PSOE in the election but does not answer to its whip iirc)

Will abstension of PNV be enough? The government in this case has 171 votes with 174 against it.

And would the leftists in Nueva Canarias want it?
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Vosem
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« Reply #1052 on: June 27, 2016, 01:10:16 pm »

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

PP government with C's as junior coalition partner thanks to the support/abstention of PNV (5 seats), CC (1 seat) and Nueva Canaria (1 seat, individual party that however ran with the PSOE in the election but does not answer to its whip iirc)

Will abstension of PNV be enough? The government in this case has 171 votes with 174 against it.

And would the leftists in Nueva Canarias want it?

On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming. The government would have 169 votes, but there are only 174 against it in this scenario, so on the second ballot it would work (unless the Canarians or the PNV back out). Whether the Canarians or the PNV would be down, well...

This is just another variant of the PP/C's/PNV/Canarians axis I was discussing upthread (which received, in my count, 175 votes total -- it does add up to 176, a majority, if you add the PSOE-aligned Canarians to the mix. How realistic that addition is, I don't know).

And, honestly, would PP even back a technocrat after having come in first in two elections straight? I think they could be motivated to dump Rajoy in favor of someone else (Rivera even suggested some names in an interview; he said Javier Maroto and Fernando Martinez Maillo would both be acceptable, though Maillo criticized Rivera for even bringing his name up), but they  may outright vote against some technocrat who comes from outside the party. PSOE/C's, as we've already seen, is not sufficient to form government, and both just lost seats in the elections.
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ag
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« Reply #1053 on: June 27, 2016, 01:20:21 pm »
« Edited: June 27, 2016, 01:30:32 pm by ag »


On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming.

If that were the case, PNV and CC would be all you needed. Nueva Canarias is only there to get the 176th vote.

But it is not the case. I just checked the constitution. On the second vote you, indeed, only need a plurality instead of majority. This is why PSOE abstaining works. However, if PNV abstains and everybody else votes predictably, it will be, at best (even with Nuevas Canarias in favor of PP) 171 in favor, 174 against, and this is NOT enough. PNV must actively support the PP government, or else it simply does not have enough votes. Curiously, CDC abstaining, while PNV votes against, would have been enough.

Article 33, Section 3: Si el Congreso de los Diputados, por el voto de la mayoría absoluta de sus miembros, otorgare su confianza a dicho candidato, el Rey le nombrará Presidente. De no alcanzarse dicha mayoría, se someterá la misma propuesta a nueva votación cuarenta y ocho horas después de la anterior, y la confianza se entenderá otorgada si obtuviere la mayoría simple.

If the Congress of Deputies, by the vote of an absolute majority of its members gives its confidence to the said candidate, the King names him President. If the said majority is not reached, the same proposal is submitted to a new vote fourty eight hours after the previous one, and the confidence shall be understood given if it obtains a simple majority <plurality>.
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ag
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« Reply #1054 on: June 27, 2016, 01:31:23 pm »


And, honestly, would PP even back a technocrat after having come in first in two elections straight?

As long as C is on board, PP agreement is not necessary.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1055 on: June 27, 2016, 01:33:58 pm »

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

PP government with C's as junior coalition partner thanks to the support/abstention of PNV (5 seats), CC (1 seat) and Nueva Canaria (1 seat, individual party that however ran with the PSOE in the election but does not answer to its whip iirc)

The agreement between PSOE and Nueva Canarias (NC) only binds centre-left regionalists to support the investiture of the socialist candidate. Elected MP Pedro Quevedo stated that he's more inclined to vote against Rajoy and in neither case he will support the PP candidate, but he doesn't discard to abstain previous consultation with PSOE. This time the PSOE-NC coalition came second in Las Palmas province and NC won a seat in the Senate (Gran Canaria island).

On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming. The government would have 169 votes, but there are only 174 against it in this scenario, so on the second ballot it would work (unless the Canarians or the PNV back out). Whether the Canarians or the PNV would be down, well...

In the second ballot the candidate needs a plurality, that is to say more votes in favour than against. It's like ag said just a moment ago.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1056 on: June 27, 2016, 01:59:13 pm »

Well, that was one considerable waste of time, money and energy.

Sadly, this is true. Personally I didn't like the PSOE-C's agreement, but in hindsight it would have been preferable that Podemos abstained in the investiture and gave Pedro Sánchez a try. I think that Errejón was somewhat favourable to that option. Podemos would have been as the main opposition force in the Left. Anyway it was very complicated and the increasing hostility between Podemos and C's didn't help the "new politics" and the "democratic regeneration". Also, who could have imagined the impact of Brexit? Finally, it's truly sad that corruption doesn't pay. Fear is much stronger than decency, it seems.

Well, imagine how pissed I am since I really liked the agreement. It wasn't only the Brexit though, it seems - although we won't know until the post-electoral CIS - that Podemos' policy of pacts backfired on them, and only did not lose more votes by leeching them from IU.

Honest to God, I was enjoying the doom-and-gloom cries of peviously-overconfident podemitas on Facebook yesterday, except for this means 4 more years.

Obviously it wasn't only Brexit, but it's logical to think that finally it created a climate of fear that had a significant effect on voting. The question is that polls were suggesting that the period of fruitless talks was eroding Podemos, while IU was growing because of the "constructive" attitude of Alberto Garzón and his good public image. When the UP alliance was announced, polls said that it was getting momentum and no one predicted that PSOE was going to hold the second place in popular vote. What happened them? As you say, we'll have to wait for the CIS post-election survey. 'Experts' will have to sound convincing, because this time polling industry failed miserably. It's interesting the Jorge Galindo article that you linked.

On a side note, I abstained myself of log in Facebook or other social networks on Sunday. I have friends that are activists and they were overconfident about the UP success. I can't blame them because polls said what they said. I never engage in discussions with social network activists of whatever ideology, on the other hand. Since Brexit happened, my gut told me that it would have an effect. Anyway, I never imagined this result.   
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1057 on: June 27, 2016, 02:15:54 pm »

Well, that was one considerable waste of time, money and energy.

Sadly, this is true. Personally I didn't like the PSOE-C's agreement, but in hindsight it would have been preferable that Podemos abstained in the investiture and gave Pedro Sánchez a try. I think that Errejón was somewhat favourable to that option. Podemos would have been as the main opposition force in the Left. Anyway it was very complicated and the increasing hostility between Podemos and C's didn't help the "new politics" and the "democratic regeneration". Also, who could have imagined the impact of Brexit? Finally, it's truly sad that corruption doesn't pay. Fear is much stronger than decency, it seems.

Well, imagine how pissed I am since I really liked the agreement. It wasn't only the Brexit though, it seems - although we won't know until the post-electoral CIS - that Podemos' policy of pacts backfired on them, and only did not lose more votes by leeching them from IU.

Honest to God, I was enjoying the doom-and-gloom cries of peviously-overconfident podemitas on Facebook yesterday, except for this means 4 more years.

Obviously it wasn't only Brexit, but it's logical to think that finally it created a climate of fear that had a significant effect on voting. The question is that polls were suggesting that the period of fruitless talks was eroding Podemos, while IU was growing because of the "constructive" attitude of Alberto Garzón and his good public image. When the UP alliance was announced, polls said that it was getting momentum and no one predicted that PSOE was going to hold the second place in popular vote. What happened them? As you say, we'll have to wait for the CIS post-election survey. 'Experts' will have to sound convincing, because this time polling industry failed miserably. It's interesting the Jorge Galindo article that you linked.

On a side note, I abstained myself of log in Facebook or other social networks on Sunday. I have friends that are activists and they were overconfident about the UP success. I can't blame them because polls said what they said. I never engage in discussions with social network activists of whatever ideology, on the other hand. Since Brexit happened, my gut told me that it would have an effect. Anyway, I never imagined this result.  

I don't either, but when they start decrying 'electoral fraud' or pucherazos or calling for the elderly and the people in rural Spain to f-word off and die well... It gets old quickly.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1058 on: June 27, 2016, 02:23:29 pm »

I don't either, but when they start decrying 'electoral fraud' or pucherazos or calling for the elderly and the people in rural Spain to f-word off and die well... It gets old quickly.

Yes, I know what are you talking about. I'm pretty sure that oranges and the rest of parties have this type of 'social network activists', that in most cases are just internet trolls. My activist friends are not of that type, but sometimes they piss me with some comments. Maybe activism is incompatible with having a critical eye. At least that's my impression in most cases.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1059 on: June 28, 2016, 02:20:22 am »
« Edited: July 01, 2016, 04:51:01 am by Velasco »

Brexit effect elevated Mariano Rajoy. Summary of the Enric Juliana chronicle in La Vanguardia.

24 million of Spaniards went to vote three days after Brexit, under a continuous flood of apocalyptic messages on the future of their employments, business, savings and pension plans. Nearly 8 million chose to leave things as they were. "We are in a bad situation, but we could be even worse". It's impossible to decipher the election result without the dark echoes of Brexit.

PP was going up slowly in the final days of the campaign, according to daily polls for internal consumption of parties and companies. That rise accelerated suddenly on Saturday and Sunday (Campaign finished on Friday night. The day prior to the vote is called "day of reflection"and there are no political events). PP rose from 30% to 33% in the weekend.

Also, Mariano Rajoy benefitted from other occurrence: more than one million of voters from Podemos and IU decided to stay at home or support PSOE in order to prevent its collapse. That was the way the Brexit effect affected the less disciplined detachment of the "New Left". In May they voted the "Mayors of Change". In December they backed Pablo Iglesias as a protest vote. This time they thought twice. Some of them because of dissatisfaction with the lack of agreement between parties. Some others because they don't like IU and the communist and republican banners. Others because they are IU supporters and don't trust the podemista professors. And the sinister echoes of Brexit: leftist voters have savings and pension plans too. After his conversion to socialdemocracy, between Friday and Sunday Pablo Iglesias lacked the resources to style himself as a champion of stability. The strategy of polarisation put forward by PP and wanted by Iglesias trapped the Podemos leader. Now there's a difficult discussion inside Podemos. Errejón supporters think that the alliance with IU undermined them because the Frente Popular is a significant that creates rejection. Followers of Pablo Iglesias think the campaign was not incisive enough. Juan Carlos Monedero, who is openly confronted to Errejón, thinks that Iglesias performed in the televised debate as a toothless lion.

The sudden acceleration of European contradictions mobilised millions of Spanish voters on the defensive, especially in the South. Podemos resisted better in the Basque Country and Catalonia thanks to its incardination in their respective national political spaces. The Spanish significant problem -a state with diverse nations- is reflected in the different colours of these regions on the map.

Mariano Rajoy has better cards to gain the investiture. The better results and the delicate European juncture play in his favour. Pedro Sánchez has saved his face, but he's too weak to defy the PSOE's old guard. PSOE needs to assimilate the result, rethink itself and leave the initiative to others. Albert Rivera has to deal with his previous veto to Rajoy. There will be a government by September, Berlin willing.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160628/402806767588/efecto-brexit.html
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jaichind
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« Reply #1060 on: June 28, 2016, 11:19:18 am »

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game. 
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ag
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« Reply #1061 on: June 28, 2016, 11:36:13 am »

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game.  

My understanding is, they are not going to abstain, at least, as long as Rajoy is the one proposed by PP.  They may have left an opening to abstain if it is somebody else. Like a PP-affiliated technocrat. That is their bid.

Abstaining for Rajoy or even another "mainline" PP politician would kill PSOE. Far too may people would never forgive this, and Podemos is an available alternative. I think you may be underestimating the tribal feeling there.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1062 on: June 28, 2016, 12:25:45 pm »


On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming.

If that were the case, PNV and CC would be all you needed. Nueva Canarias is only there to get the 176th vote.

But it is not the case. I just checked the constitution. On the second vote you, indeed, only need a plurality instead of majority. This is why PSOE abstaining works. However, if PNV abstains and everybody else votes predictably, it will be, at best (even with Nuevas Canarias in favor of PP) 171 in favor, 174 against, and this is NOT enough. PNV must actively support the PP government, or else it simply does not have enough votes. Curiously, CDC abstaining, while PNV votes against, would have been enough.

Article 33, Section 3: Si el Congreso de los Diputados, por el voto de la mayoría absoluta de sus miembros, otorgare su confianza a dicho candidato, el Rey le nombrará Presidente. De no alcanzarse dicha mayoría, se someterá la misma propuesta a nueva votación cuarenta y ocho horas después de la anterior, y la confianza se entenderá otorgada si obtuviere la mayoría simple.

If the Congress of Deputies, by the vote of an absolute majority of its members gives its confidence to the said candidate, the King names him President. If the said majority is not reached, the same proposal is submitted to a new vote fourty eight hours after the previous one, and the confidence shall be understood given if it obtains a simple majority <plurality>.


Ah. I was wrong. Sorry.

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game. 

My understanding is, they are not going to abstain, at least, as long as Rajoy is the one proposed by PP.  They may have left an opening to abstain if it is somebody else. Like a PP-affiliated technocrat. That is their bid.

Abstaining for Rajoy or even another "mainline" PP politician would kill PSOE. Far too may people would never forgive this, and Podemos is an available alternative. I think you may be underestimating the tribal feeling there.

Where is the line between mainline PP politician and PP-affiliated technocrat? Even convincing PP to dump Rajoy in negotiations doesn't seem like it's going to be easy, and if the technocrat isn't clearly a member of PP, PP may not support him (and if he is, what difference is there between the technocrat and the mainline politician?). It seems like there's a lot more appetite for nonpartisan, technocratic governance among the PSOE than the PP.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1063 on: June 28, 2016, 02:39:37 pm »
« Edited: June 28, 2016, 02:43:14 pm by Velasco »

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game.  

Neither PSOE nor Ciudadanos can easily withdraw what once was said. Albert Rivera tries to take the burden of backing Rajoy off by saying that only PSOE can supply enough support for the investiture. PSOE in neither case can support Rajoy, but once the dust settles they could consider abstaining for the shake of "stability". Of course there is the Monti option, but Rajoy is vindicated by the result and it's not easy that he's going to step aside. These things take time, but there won't be a third election.

EDIT: The king can't invite a technocrat without having secured said person is backed by someone.
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« Reply #1064 on: June 28, 2016, 02:57:21 pm »

Can the King do the samee as his namesake here in Belgium, and invite somebody else from whatever party to form a government, bypassing the head of the party?

This happened a lot during our governmental vacuum. De Wever was seen as a divisive figre due to his open seperatism, and someone more moderate was called upon to negotiate a deal on behalf of the N-VA?

Also, it look increasingly likely CUP are going to collapse the Catalan government, right?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1065 on: June 28, 2016, 03:20:09 pm »

Can the King do the samee as his namesake here in Belgium, and invite somebody else from whatever party to form a government, bypassing the head of the party?

This happened a lot during our governmental vacuum. De Wever was seen as a divisive figre due to his open seperatism, and someone more moderate was called upon to negotiate a deal on behalf of the N-VA?

I should check to say if that's legally possible. I can tell you that the king is not going to invite someone who is not a party leader, unless said person is backed by a previous agreement between parties. During the previous period of talks, it was apparent that King Felipe was very careful in not going beyond his role and always tried to maintain a strict neutrality. Furthermore, after the December elections Rajoy and his Deputy PM Sáez de Santamaría tried to shorten the period to call for a new election, because PP never had the intent to negotiate with other parties. Felipe refused to indulge that pretension and invited Sánchez.

I think that it's more likely that Rajoy stays as PM than the other options, but it's too soon to make predictions. Now the situation has changed and Rajoy must take the initiative.

Also, it look increasingly likely CUP are going to collapse the Catalan government, right?

The CUP itself is tearing apart. There is a motion of confidence in September. In case Carles Puigdemont doesn't pass it, he will have to call new elections.
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ag
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« Reply #1066 on: June 28, 2016, 03:24:08 pm »


EDIT: The king can't invite a technocrat without having secured said person is backed by someone.

Could the King, or a surrogate, quietly propose somebody to the party leaders? Would that be viewed as a no-no?
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« Reply #1067 on: June 28, 2016, 06:33:45 pm »
« Edited: June 28, 2016, 06:35:31 pm by Upsilon »

Just a comment...

If Podemos and Ciudadanos wouldn't exist, and if we would give the number of seats they obtained in this election to PSOE and respectively PP, we would have exactly the same problem to form a government with the traditional bipartisan system !

The problem doesn't seem to be the end of bipartisan system, but the fact that the catalan parties wont's support any government... If they have the balance of power, and this is the cas now, nothing can be done.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.
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ag
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« Reply #1068 on: June 28, 2016, 07:16:17 pm »

Just a comment...

If Podemos and Ciudadanos wouldn't exist, and if we would give the number of seats they obtained in this election to PSOE and respectively PP, we would have exactly the same problem to form a government with the traditional bipartisan system !

The problem doesn't seem to be the end of bipartisan system, but the fact that the catalan parties wont's support any government... If they have the balance of power, and this is the cas now, nothing can be done.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.

Good observation.

Of course, the Catalan parties would happily support any government that gives them the referendum Smiley

Also, an interesting observation concerning outcomes of close elections in the (still) UK Smiley
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Velasco
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« Reply #1069 on: June 29, 2016, 02:50:43 am »

Just a comment...
So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.

Yes, Catalonia is at the core of the problem. That's something that have stressed Pedro Sánchez in the investiture debate and the Catalan parties. Sánchez to say that an agreement with Podemos would have required the support of ERC or CDC and that was unacceptable for the PSOE. ERC and CDC spokepersons to say that, unless they solve the "Catalan problem", Spain will remain ungovernable.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

PSOE won majorities in 1982 and 1986. PP in 2000 and 2011.

Just a comment...

If Podemos and Ciudadanos wouldn't exist, and if we would give the number of seats they obtained in this election to PSOE and respectively PP, we would have exactly the same problem to form a government with the traditional bipartisan system !

The surge of Podemos and Ciudadanos and the end of the two-party system reflect, among other things, a sharp generational split. To take an example, the last victory of PSOE was in 2008. That year candidate José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was backed by more than 11 million of votes. Seven years later (December 2015), those 11 million appear divided almost evenly in half. Most youth and the "new middle classes" went with Podemos, while PSOE retained retired people and housewives and manual workers splitted in two. Hence, the split of the progressive vote outlines a post-classist scenario where the class conflict between manual workers and professionals is replaced by an intergenerational conflict between passive and active classes, in which the latter struggle in the increasingly precarious labour market. The share of the votes between PP and C's was more uneven but their base of support is more or less similar. So we have that establishment parties are backed by a coalition of passive classes while youngsters back the "new politics". The problem is that Spain presents a demographic imbalance and a very low birth rate: this year deaths exceeded births for the first time. At the electoral level, this means that passive classes and older generations prevail and any danger sign will reinforce their bet for security over any other consideration. This time Brexit was that signal. So perhaps, in order to reconcile the right of the younger people to have a vital horizon and the right of the older people to preserve their social achievements, the sensible solution would have been an intergenerational pact. According to an article in El País by UNED professor Juan Jesús González, after the December elections it was the moment for a triangulation between the two parties that represent the "new politics" (Podemos and C's) and the PSOE. González blames mainly Pablo Iglesias, but in my opinion Albert Rivera was equally intransigent. The "Cross Coalition" wanted by Sánchez was impossible due to the crossed vetoes between Podemos and C's.  
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1070 on: June 29, 2016, 04:06:39 am »

Just a comment...
So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.

Yes, Catalonia is at the core of the problem. That's something that have stressed Pedro Sánchez in the investiture debate and the Catalan parties. Sánchez to say that an agreement with Podemos would have required the support of ERC or CDC and that was unacceptable for the PSOE. ERC and CDC spokepersons to say that, unless they solve the "Catalan problem", Spain will remain ungovernable.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

PSOE won majorities in 1982 and 1986. PP in 2000 and 2011.


And technically also in '89, as the absence of the two HB deputies meant the PSOE had the absolute majority.
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« Reply #1071 on: July 03, 2016, 12:45:56 pm »

Variation in percentage of the vote for Unidos Podemos, with regard to the addition of the Podemos and IU (and MÉS in the Balearic Islands) vote in December 2015.

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Nanwe
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« Reply #1072 on: July 03, 2016, 04:45:52 pm »

Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1073 on: July 04, 2016, 04:52:13 am »

Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

Yes, it'd be interesting so I will make a PSOE map in a few days.
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coloniac
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« Reply #1074 on: July 04, 2016, 07:19:14 am »

Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?
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