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Velasco
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« Reply #1075 on: July 06, 2016, 02:33:21 pm »
« edited: July 07, 2016, 01:11:32 am by Velasco »

Variation in percentage of the vote for the PSOE between December 2015 and June 2016

Img


Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?

I think the PSOE loses in Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are due to the mobilisation of abstentionists in rural areas who voted for PP. It's possible that there was some small vote transfer from PSOE to PP in those places, or maybe PSOE lost some thousands of voters to abstention. Without provincial analysis of the vote it's hard to tell. The other noticeable thing is a slight PSOE recovery in big cities such as Madrid, Valencia or Zaragoza.  
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« Reply #1076 on: July 07, 2016, 02:35:12 am »

So basically, swing from Podemos to PSOE in the North and swing from PSOE to PP in the South?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1077 on: July 07, 2016, 03:39:28 am »

Variation in percentage of the vote for the PSOE between December 2015 and June 2016



Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?

I think the PSOE loses in Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are due to the mobilisation of abstentionists in rural areas who voted for PP. It's possible that there was some small vote transfer from PSOE to PP in those places, or maybe PSOE lost some thousands of voters to abstention. Without provincial analysis of the vote it's hard to tell. The other noticeable thing is a slight PSOE recovery in big cities such as Madrid, Valencia or Zaragoza.  

Thanks! It is really interesting to see, indeed. It's rather surprising that the PSOE improved where it took a beating on December, essentially urban areas and peripheral areas where they are supposed to be very handicapped vis-à-vis C's and Podemos, and then that in the stronghold of the southern rural world they lose. It's surprising because their campaign really wasn't that good, I imagine there must be some effect of unhappy people from Podemos coming back because of the negotiations? Still wouldn't explain Andalucia. But this very bad results have weakened Susana Díaz and paradoxically (despite still losing 5 seats and 100k votes), strengthen Sánchez's position.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1078 on: July 07, 2016, 05:25:52 am »

Felipe Gonzalez Urges PSOE Not to Block Rajoy Minority Govt
Thursday, July 7, 2016 02:55 AM
by Charles Penty
(Bloomberg) -- Former Socialist Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez said in an article in El Pais newspaper that if necessary his party should not block a minority govt led by acting PM Mariano Rajoy.
Socialists role should be as a “responsible opposition” to PP; party should not enter a coalition with Rajoy, Gonzalez says
Everyone agrees that third round of elections in Spain is not an option: Gonzalez
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Velasco
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« Reply #1079 on: July 07, 2016, 07:11:30 am »
« Edited: July 07, 2016, 07:25:15 am by Velasco »

So basically, swing from Podemos to PSOE in the North and swing from PSOE to PP in the South?

It's a bit more nuanced than that and I think it depends on the region or the province. At general level, it seems plausible that PP gains came mainly from Ciudadanos and abstentionists. The PP campaign has proved effective in attracting those groups of voters (and the appeal to the voters' fear was arguably boosted by the repercussion of Brexit in media). Also, the PP campaign was focused in rural areas and social groups where they are strong like retired people and pensioners. As well, they worked well in smaller provinces with seats depending on small vote swings. As I said before, I think that PP could have received some PSOE transfers in the rural areas of Southern Spain, but maybe they were small.

As for the UP loses, they are likely due to multiple factors. The bulk of the UP loses went to abstention, but in places like Madrid and urban areas like Zaragoza, Valencia and others it's very likely an UP-PSOE transfer. Maybe there was a small transfer in some northern regions. However, Podemos resisted better in Catalonia, Basque Country and Navarre. In Catalonia ECP lost some 80k voters due to the lower turnout, but in terms of vote share and seats stayed the same. In Basque Country and Navarre UP had little gains in vote share and won an extra seat in Biscay province at the expense of the PNV. The socialists had very similar results in Catalonia, losing one seat in Lleida province to the PP due to a very small vote swing. In the Basque Country and Navarre, they improved very slightly. In the Basque Country the leftwing nationalist EH Bildu lost nearly 2% of the vote share and in Navarre Geroa Bai plummeted. Such loses are attributable to the 'Podemos effect'.

Thanks! It is really interesting to see, indeed. It's rather surprising that the PSOE improved where it took a beating on December, essentially urban areas and peripheral areas where they are supposed to be very handicapped vis-à-vis C's and Podemos, and then that in the stronghold of the southern rural world they lose. It's surprising because their campaign really wasn't that good, I imagine there must be some effect of unhappy people from Podemos coming back because of the negotiations? Still wouldn't explain Andalucia. But this very bad results have weakened Susana Díaz and paradoxically (despite still losing 5 seats and 100k votes), strengthen Sánchez's position.

Maybe the repercussion of the negotiations had some effect in Madrid and other places. However, there are more factors that can explain the reasons why more than 1 million of the Podemos and IU voters in December didn't support UP in June. Among others, Podemos and IU voters unhappy with the alliance, the fear factor (PP campaign and Brexit), negative campaigning in media and at the justice courts (the week after the elections, the judge denied by the sixth time that lawsuit alleging illegal financing fro Venezuela and Iran due to blatant inconsistency, but it appeared in media during the campaign), voter fatigue and lack of electoral tension, etcetera. We'll have to wait the CIS post-election survey or other analyses.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1080 on: July 08, 2016, 09:12:27 am »

Leading party in the municipality of Madrid by census section:

Img

The map is taken from here:

http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/madrid/2016-06-25/calles-madrid-votos-pp-podemos-elecciones-generales_1222988/
 
There is a census section located in Salamanca neighbourhood where PP got 77.7% of the vote. The landmark building of this section is Amboage Palace, which was the provisional site of the City Hall during the Civil War and was sold to Italy in 1940 to become in the Italian embassy. A woman called Candela says that she supports PP because it has government experience, but she thinks that perhaps Rajoy must be replaced because everybody is against him. She shares the typical opinion of all PP voters: "there is corruption in all parties".

In Zurita street, located in the Lavapiés neighbourhood (District Centro), there is a site called Teatro del Barrio, the place where Podemos was launched. It's a cultural cooperative managed by actor and Podemos activist Alberto San Juan. UP got 47% in the census section that covers two blocks of Zurita streets featuring Teatro del Barrio and a venue called La Marabunta, a mix of café and bookstore where Podemos was born. Apparently, there is another census section in Lavapiés where UP got 56.7%.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1081 on: July 09, 2016, 08:06:23 am »

The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

Img


Roll Eyes
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Velasco
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« Reply #1082 on: July 09, 2016, 09:38:41 am »

The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

IU Madrid claims that the cartoon was not made by them as is conveyed to condemn "the role of Israel and the USA in geopolitics", and "in neither case to offend Jewish people". The cartoon features on top "Guerras No" ("No Wars") and calls people to demonstrate before the US embassy on July 10. President Obama is going to visit Spain and will land tonight in Seville. The Israel embassy claims that "the use of anti-semitic stereotypes infamous by their use in the blackest period of European History deserves the strongest condemnation" from "all the Spanish democratic forces".
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« Reply #1083 on: July 18, 2016, 04:54:47 pm »

The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

IU Madrid claims that the cartoon was not made by them as is conveyed to condemn "the role of Israel and the USA in geopolitics", and "in neither case to offend Jewish people". The cartoon features on top "Guerras No" ("No Wars") and calls people to demonstrate before the US embassy on July 10. President Obama is going to visit Spain and will land tonight in Seville. The Israel embassy claims that "the use of anti-semitic stereotypes infamous by their use in the blackest period of European History deserves the strongest condemnation" from "all the Spanish democratic forces".
At first I thought it was an Arab man and an Israeli man making out, which I found pretty cool ! Then it struck me and... it's not of very good taste...
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Velasco
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« Reply #1084 on: July 20, 2016, 01:34:37 am »

Ana Pastor (PP) elected new speaker of Congress with the support of Ciudadanos. Pío Escudero (PP) re-elected speaker of the Senate.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/07/19/inenglish/1468915263_766500.html

Quote
Spain’s parliament held its inaugural session on Tuesday at 10am, when 350 deputies and 266 senators began voting for the speakers of both houses following the repeat national election of June 26.

Ana Pastor of the Popular Party (PP) became the new speaker of Congress in a run-off vote held in the lower house shortly before noon. With 169 votes, she beat out the Socialist candidate, Patxi López (155), who was the speaker in the previous, short-lived Congress.

“I am happy but concerned. This will not be an easy term,” said Pastor on Tuesday morning.

But the new term begins with no clear picture of who will ultimately be the new prime minister. Although the most likely candidate is Mariano Rajoy, who has been at the helm of a caretaker government since the first inconclusive election of December 20, the conservative politician has yet to confirm that he will bid for the post.

Although his Popular Party (PP) emerged the winner on June 26 with 137 seats, it is still well short of the 176 required for a congressional majority. And so far, attempts at building coalitions with other parties have failed – as they did earlier this year, leading to the fresh election.

At a meeting of top PP officials, participants emerged with the feeling that Rajoy is now ready to try to form a minority government rather than attempt a grand coalition with the Socialists (PSOE). Although he did not say so in so many words, Rajoy also suggested that his new government will undergo a generational change.

But the Socialist leader, Pedro Sánchez, on Monday insinuated that he might be open to attempting a parliamentary majority with Unidos Podemos and regional parties if Rajoy fails in his bid to be reinstated.

“The 17 deputies from Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and Convergència need to be taken out of limbo,” he told a group of aides at a closed-door meeting, in a reference to Catalan nationalist parties (...)

Pastor's candidacy was the result of a preliminary deal with the emerging Ciudadanos party over the speaker of Congress and the makeup of the Mesa del Congreso, the lower house’s governing board.

Under the terms of the agreement, Rajoy put forward Pastor, a veteran party member and trusted aide of his. But her name only came forward after Rajoy’s two other suggestions were struck down by Ciudadanos. One was acting interior minister Jorge Fernández Díaz, who was recently embroiled in a political scandal, and the second was PP Secretary General María Dolores de Cospedal, who is viewed as too partisan.

Meanwhile, Ciudadanos will get two seats on the Mesa, even though its election results (32) did not entitle the party to any. The Socialist Party (PSOE) and the anti-austerity Podemos each get two representatives, while the PP gets three.

This arrangement will only come to pass if other forces in Congress fail to come up with an alternative. This, however, would require a difficult combination of PSOE, Podemos and regional parties that defend independence from Spain in varying degrees.

Relations between the Socialists and Podemos, once considered potential partners in a leftist coalition, have been deteriorating since the December elections. The former have already stated that they will vote for their own candidate to head the lower chamber, Patxi López – who was speaker of the previous, short-lived Congress – rather than for Podemos’ candidate, Xavier Domènech.

In other news, CDC (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia) was renamed PDC (Catalan Democratic Party) on July 10.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Democratic_Party

it's not of very good taste...

It's not of very good taste, indeed. It's just an inept cartoon that gives a good pretext to the other party's outrage.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1085 on: July 23, 2016, 08:01:01 am »

Spanish caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy studying formulas to dissolve parliament and call third election if there’s no government by September, El Mundo newspaper reports, citing unnamed sources.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1086 on: July 26, 2016, 04:45:13 am »

PP Would Win Up to 144 Seats in 3rd Elections: La Razon Poll

(Bloomberg) -- People’s Party would win up to 144 seats if third elections held in Spain from 137 seats now, La Razon reports, citing opinion poll by NC Report.
Socialists would win 83-85 seats vs 85 now; Unidos Podemos up to 72 seats vs 71 now; Ciudadanos 30-31 seats vs 32
Voter participation would drop to 61% from 66%
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Velasco
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« Reply #1087 on: July 28, 2016, 06:30:45 am »

King Felipe begun talks with party leaders this week. There is an awful sense of deja vu.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/07/26/inenglish/1469521499_441254.html?rel=mas

Quote
A decisive week in Spanish politics has begun, with the first of several meetings between party leaders and King Felipe VI scheduled for Tuesday (...)

In order to become the next prime minister, Rajoy needs other parties to cast yes votes – or at the very least to abstain – at the investiture vote that should take place in early August in Congress. But Rajoy seems set to follow the same strategy he adopted after December's gridlock: refusing to even stand for reinstatement if he is not previously guaranteed success.

Rajoy’s ideal situation would be a yes vote from Ciudadanos in the first round of the investiture vote, which would add 32 seats to his own for a total of 169 out of the 176 he needs. This would pressure the PSOE into conceding an abstention in the run-off, when all that is required is more yes votes than no votes in the 350-seat chamber.

But with just 48 hours to go before Felipe VI meets with the leaders of Spain’s four main parties – including the anti-austerity Podemos – Sánchez and Rivera are refusing to go along, saying that it is not up to them to “do Rajoy’s job.” (...)

This morning Felipe VI met with C's leader Albert Rivera, who proposed two alternatives to the king: PP-PSOE-C's coalition without Mariano Rajoy or PP minority government with the PSOE abstention in the investiture. The first alternative was dismissed by Rajoy yesterday, when he gave clear expression of his desire to stay. The second alternative has been dismissed by PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez, who refuses to concede abstention. Albert Rivera opposes to vote for the acting PM, so the gridlock continues.

The meeeting between King Felipe and Pablo Iglesias already took place.

In other news, the Parliament of Catalonia defies Constitutional Court by passing a text that sets the agenda for the "disconnection' from Spain. JxSí and the CUP voted in favour, while PP and C's MPs left the chamber in protest, PSC members stayed in but didn't vote and CSP voted against. Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont will face a motion of confidence on September 28.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1088 on: July 31, 2016, 09:28:02 am »

Spain Prefers Socialist Abstention to Avoid New Vote: Pais Poll
 (Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll show 66% of Spaniards would prefer Socialists to abstain in confidence vote to allow Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to govern rather than hold new elections, El Pais reports.
70% think Rajoy should step aside if doing so would facilitate the formation of a government, newspaper reports, citing poll by Metroscopia
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Velasco
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« Reply #1089 on: August 01, 2016, 01:10:18 pm »
« Edited: August 01, 2016, 01:18:19 pm by Velasco »

Mariano Rajoy ready to negotiate 125 points with PSOE and Ciudadanos, says El País

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/01/inenglish/1470041109_608806.html

Quote
Spanish acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy will meet with two opposition leaders this week in a bid to secure enough support to break a seven-month deadlock and form a government.

The Popular Party (PP) candidate wants to reach a deal in August, in time to get important legislation passed, including the 2017 budget and EU fiscal policy requirements.

So far, Socialist Party (PSOE) leader Pedro Sánchez and Ciudadanos president Albert Rivera have refused to endorse Rajoy, whose PP earned 137 seats at the repeat election of June 26. A congressional majority requires 176 seats.

Both say that Rajoy’s proposals for a governing program, which he sent them last month, simply mirror the PP’s campaign platform.

Now, Rajoy’s team has compared this program with the joint governing agreement that the Socialists and Ciudadanos came up with following the original election of December 20, and found 125 points in common.

Rajoy will use this apparent common ground to argue that “PP, PSOE and Ciudadanos share principles and priorities that are essential to the general interest of Spaniards.” He will meet with Sánchez and Rivera on Tuesday and Wednesday, shortly after King Felipe VI tasked him with trying to form a government (...)

Constitutional Court suspends the resolution made by the Parliament of Catalonia for the "disconnection" and the independence. Rajoy's administration demanded the Court to deal with speaker Carme Forcadell by means of criminal law, for being a "person clearly involved" who leads an institution (the Catalan Parliament) that "violates" the constitutional state. The Court just ruled to notice personally premier Carles Puigdemont, Mrs Forcadell and other officials their eventual responsibility in case the suspension is ignored.

Basque Country and Galicia will hold elections together on September 25.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1090 on: August 01, 2016, 03:13:35 pm »

Spain Prefers Socialist Abstention to Avoid New Vote: Pais Poll
 (Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll show 66% of Spaniards would prefer Socialists to abstain in confidence vote to allow Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to govern rather than hold new elections, El Pais reports.
70% think Rajoy should step aside if doing so would facilitate the formation of a government, newspaper reports, citing poll by Metroscopia

The problem with Metroscopia's poll is that basically the wording is very treacherous.

The question is "If in order to prevent the repetition of the elections, the only alternative would be for the PSOE to abstain and let Rajoy govern in exchange of a series of agreed to reform, what would you prefer?

a) PSOE abstention
b) Electoral repetition

I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1091 on: August 03, 2016, 08:52:52 am »

I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.

In any case, the bias of this poll is according to El País editorial line. The paper is advocating for PSOE abstention and criticizing Pedro Sánchez, claiming that his resistance is irresponsible and questioning his capacity to lead the party. Some people in PSOE is waiting for the right time to draw the sword against Sánchez. Try to guess with whom is going to side PRISA (the editor of El País). Mariano Rajoy must be very pleased.
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jeron
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« Reply #1092 on: August 10, 2016, 08:45:58 am »

I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.

In any case, the bias of this poll is according to El País editorial line. The paper is advocating for PSOE abstention and criticizing Pedro Sánchez, claiming that his resistance is irresponsible and questioning his capacity to lead the party. Some people in PSOE is waiting for the right time to draw the sword against Sánchez. Try to guess with whom is going to side PRISA (the editor of El País). Mariano Rajoy must be very pleased.

Last time i read El Pais, it wasn't as clear about this as you write here. Yes they think that PSOE should possibly abstain, but they also wrote that some of the policies proposed by PP are unacceptable for PSOE.

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Nanwe
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« Reply #1093 on: August 12, 2016, 07:34:48 am »

A bit of an (admittedly outdate but useful, data is from 2014) social analysis of how the broad Spanish middle class votes. Data from here: http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/download.html?file=ESS7e02&y=2014, work is not mine, by the way.

(Sectorial) Social Class and Voting in Spain

The graphic below allow us to see which social classes are over- or underrepresented in the various main Spanish political parties. National average is 0.

Img

The PP is over-represented amongst small businessmen and to a lesser degree amongst the group of managers and administrators.

The PSOE is markedly the party of industrial production workers, the social class traditionally linked to the social-democratic parties, but also to the right-wing populist parties in other countries. This group is one of the so-called 'losers of globalisation'.

Podemos particularly attracts the socio-cultural liberal professionals, a category that also tends to be over-represented in the new left or green parties in various European countries.

Ciudadanos is the most voted party by managers and administrators, although it is also over-represented amongst technical professionals.

The results seem to confirm a new division in the salaried middle class between the socio-cultural professionals and the administrators and managers that is also observable in other countrues, like Germany, Great Britain, Sweden or Switzerland. An individual's position in the national work structure seems to be elated to political behaviour in Spain too, although without taking into account the strong duality of the Spanish labour market.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1094 on: August 20, 2016, 07:35:29 am »

PP spokesman on the investiture negotiations between PP and Ciudadanos:
 "This is the beginning of a love affair"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/19/inenglish/1471612658_302672.html

Quote

Having signed up to a series of anti-corruption measures imposed by Ciudadanos on Friday morning, the Popular Party (PP) is now clearly hoping it can count on the emerging party’s support to form a government and end a political stalemate that has left Spain rudderless for more than eight months, thus avoiding a third general election in a year.

“This is the beginning of a love affair,” said a smiling PP spokesman, Javier Hernando, as he shook hands with his opposite number in Ciudadanos, Juan Carlos Girauta, on Friday in Congress after signing an anti-corruption pact. The deal was part of a memorandum of six measures Ciudadanos presented to the PP last week.

But the leader of the emerging center-right group, Albert Rivera, who is still wary of being pulled into a marriage of convenience by the PP, continued to insist that his party’s demands that the PP take specific measures to combat corruption is simply a pre-condition for voting with the PP when interim Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy appears before Congress at the upcoming investiture debate, which will start on August 30.

At present Mariano Rajoy has 170 votes: PP, C's and the Canary Coalition. No change of stance from PSOE:

Quote
But speaking immediately after the PP and Ciudadanos’ announcement, Pedro Sánchez reiterated his party’s refusal to support Rajoy in any way. “The PSOE is the alternative, not a potential ally,” he said, insisting again that he would vote against Rajoy at the investiture.

“The PSOE will vote against the investiture and the budget, which will simply mean more cuts,” said Sánchez.

He also criticized the date for the start of the investiture debate, pointing out that should it fail, a third general election would take place on December 25.

Sánchez suggested that should Rajoy fail to win a vote, it would not be his party’s responsibility and that the PP would be able find allies in Congress, noting that regional parties supported the PP’s choice for speaker of Congress, Ana Pastor, in July (...)
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« Reply #1095 on: August 22, 2016, 06:17:23 am »

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/08/22/57ba0c4822601df33c8b459e.html

As much as 54% of PSOE voters believe party should abstain if PP and C reach a pact for formation of Spanish govt, El Mundo reports, citing opinion poll. 55% of PSOE voters prefer PP-led govt now instead of third round of elections.
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« Reply #1096 on: August 30, 2016, 09:52:15 pm »

Mariano Rajoy expected to fail in first investiture attempt,

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/30/inenglish/1472566760_282741.html

Quote
Spain’s acting prime minister, Mariano Rajoy of the Popular Party (PP), addressed Congress on Tuesday afternoon at the outset of an investiture debate at which the conservative chief is lacking the necessary support to be voted back in as the country’s leader (...)

While Rajoy has secured the support of emerging center-right group Ciudadanos, he is still short of votes at the investiture debate. He is likely to fail at the first round, at which he will need an absolute majority of 176 votes from deputies, and looks set to lose the second round also, at which a simple majority of more yes votes than no would suffice. The main opposition Socialist Party (PSOE) is refusing to abstain at the second vote, scheduled for Friday, meaning Rajoy’s bid would be doomed to failure (...)

Key regional elections are scheduled on September 25 in Galicia and Basque Country. Mariano Rajoy hopes to win a big victory for PP in Galicia. In the Basque Country the ruling PNV might need both PSOE and PP to secure a majority in regional parliament. After these elections, a second investiture attempt could take place in October. By then, pressure on PSOE leadership to abstain could increase. Depending on results, even Basque nationalists could reconsider their vote. There still exists a very remote possibility of a PSOE-UP coalition government with the support of Basque and Catalan nationalists. In case no candidate is elected, a new election would take place on Christmas Day. In order to avoid that eventuality, PSOE proposed to reduce the duration of the electoral campaign from two weeks to just one. 
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« Reply #1097 on: August 31, 2016, 01:37:50 pm »

Mr Rajoy fails:  Yes 170; No 180

Acting PM reveals during the investiture debate that Colombian government and the FARC will sign their peace deal on September 26, a date that should be kept in secret. The news has been received with some perplexity in Bogota. Shame.
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« Reply #1098 on: September 05, 2016, 08:19:59 am »

http://www.larazon.es/espana/pp-y-c-s-sumarian-mayoria-absoluta-CD13454042#

PP would win up to 146 seats if third elections held in Spain from 137 seats now, La Razon reports, citing opinion poll by NC Report.  PSOE would win 82-85 seats vs 85 now; Podemos 67-70 seats vs 71 now, C 30-31 seats vs 32
In theory, PP and C will then have majority.
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« Reply #1099 on: September 05, 2016, 11:40:18 am »

Any news on the vote of confidence that the Catalan government was due to hold?
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