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CrabCake
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« Reply #125 on: March 08, 2015, 07:55:28 pm »

Wow. That poll is ... Something.

If the PP are savaged in May, could Rajoy be forced out by the caucus and replaced with a more palatable candudate?

Also should andulacia be its own thread?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #126 on: March 09, 2015, 01:23:16 am »

Wow. That poll is ... Something.

If the PP are savaged in May, could Rajoy be forced out by the caucus and replaced with a more palatable candudate?

Also should andulacia be its own thread?

Don't trust Metroscopia's polls. Essentially PSOE is not higher than PP, and C's is not that high, and most likely the PP is still first party with 23-27% of the vote. And if the PP loses it's likely that Rajoy will resign but he won't be forced out, after more than a decade at tht helm of the PP and having survived the 2008 challenge, his control of the party is pretty much absolute with the exception of Esperanza Aguirre.
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Velasco
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« Reply #127 on: March 09, 2015, 03:39:31 am »

I doubt that the situation that Rajoy faced in 2008, when he lost an election getting 40% of the vote, was comparable to a  result similar to that poll. Even though PP is a highly disciplined and hierarchical party, I see no way in which Rajoy could survive that catastrophe. I guess that he would quit politics and live comfortably as a Property Registrar. Anyway, I concur with Nanwe in not trusting that pollster in particular. Likely PP is still the first party, although with a low level of support (more or less in the EP election levels, or maybe less) and with Podemos on the heels. In two weeks we'll have the Andalusian election results. I hope they will clarify things a bit, because at this moment we cannot do much more than to speculate pointlessly.

Also should andulacia be its own thread?

Likely it should. Do you prefer a separate thread to post results or something?
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« Reply #128 on: March 09, 2015, 04:17:44 am »

I was also shocked by your post implying above that Rajoy himself controls who gets to be lead candidate in the regions. That doesn't seem like very healthy party democracy.

And even crooked polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #129 on: March 09, 2015, 10:56:18 am »
« Edited: March 09, 2015, 11:08:04 am by Nanwe »

I was also shocked by your post implying above that Rajoy himself controls who gets to be lead candidate in the regions. That doesn't seem like very healthy party democracy.

And even crooked polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies.

There's no implying. In the PP there's no internal democracy, Rajoy meets with his trusted people and decides. It's a digital system, the leader picks with his finger. Not even façade primaries, like in the PSOE.

Look, in Spanish politics there's a big phantom, that of the UCD. A party torn apart by internal disputes that led to its electoral disintegration (unlike most parties where it's the other way around), the UCD was a centre-left-to-centre-right  party (as I'm sure you know) with its organised currents and families vying for control under the long shadow of Suárez only waiting for him to grow weak to try and take over. The result was abysmal for the party and the Spanish's right: forced into opposition due to its lack of strength for 14 long years. And again whenever there were signs of weakness (like AP's lackluster results in 1986 and the ensuing crisis), the right has almost collapsed due to internal fights. There's a reason Aznar first and then Rajoy have followed a policy of total and absolute control over their party. The fact that one, one deputy out of 186 would vote against a law from his own government about abortion resulted in a considerable media frenzy. There are no defectors in the party, everyone always insists that the party is always united, one mind, one party. And of course that mind is controlled by the party leader, who leads the party balancing the pro-Rajoy factions within and slowly excluding the anti-Rajoyists from any important position. Aznar did similarly.

But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.
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« Reply #130 on: March 09, 2015, 12:21:43 pm »

Okay, the Cs are quite frequently polling over 10%. What's the deal? How can a regional party be that popular? Are they even running outside Catalonia? Is anti-nationalism their main appeal? I've also heard that they were anti-immigrant, are they benefiting from that? Then again, the person who told me that was a hardcore communist who thinks anything short of open borders is xenophobic, so I legitimately don't know.
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« Reply #131 on: March 09, 2015, 02:23:10 pm »

But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.

I only say that falling from absolute majority to a third place must imply necessarily a rebelion among territorial 'barons' and cadres. Anyway you are probably right; in that fictional scenario Rajoy could lead the way by resigning. Mariano should never have left Pontevedra. On the other hand, you gave a good explanation on how PP works internally Wink

Okay, the Cs are quite frequently polling over 10%. What's the deal? How can a regional party be that popular? Are they even running outside Catalonia? Is anti-nationalism their main appeal? I've also heard that they were anti-immigrant, are they benefiting from that? Then again, the person who told me that was a hardcore communist who thinks anything short of open borders is xenophobic, so I legitimately don't know.


The deal is that C's seems to be growing fast at the expense of PP and that the rise of a new emerging force together with Podemos implies a death certificate for the two party system.  Also, you are a bit outdated: Ciudadanos is no longer a regional party. They are expanding quickly through the rest of Spain and they got already remarkable results in Madrid and other places in the 2014 EP elections. As for immigration policies, C's leader Albert Rivera thinks that irregular immigrants should not receive the benefits of our universal healthcare system. In that regard he's in the line of the PP government, which excluded irregulars by a royal legislative decree issued in 2012.

Here's a link in Spanish mentioning some C's proposals:

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/02/15/54e11134ca4741aa038b4574.html
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Nanwe
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« Reply #132 on: March 10, 2015, 01:15:05 pm »

But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.

I only say that falling from absolute majority to a third place must imply necessarily a rebelion among territorial 'barons' and cadres. Anyway you are probably right; in that fictional scenario Rajoy could lead the way by resigning. Mariano should never have left Pontevedra. On the other hand, you gave a good explanation on how PP works internally Wink

Ah ok ok, but still, the drink offer is in place, although the difficult part would be how to do it, since I only go to Spain for Christmas, summer and (not always) either Carnival or Holy Week. And thanks, but the system is relatively easy, how could I get it wrong Tongue
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Velasco
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« Reply #133 on: March 14, 2015, 07:56:10 am »
« Edited: March 14, 2015, 08:13:24 am by Velasco »

To summarize recent developments in the conformation of the Podemos candidacies for Madrid, José Manuel López will top the 'official' list and will be the likely regional candidate.  Mr López is an agricultural engineer, expert in religions and worked for Caritas and the CEAR (Spanish Refugee Aid Commission). The number two in the list is lawyer Lorena Ruiz-Huerta, who is a young human rights activist. The candidacy will integrate members of the Convocatoria por Madrid, the platform led by the former IU regional candidate Tania Sánchez, and Equo. In order that discussion "did not focus on persons, but on projects", Tania Sánchez decided to step aside and won't run.

As for the city of Madrid, Podemos ("We Can") and the platform called Ganemos Madrid ("Let's Win Madrid") will run together in the 'instrumental party' called Ahora Madrid ("Now Madrid"). Three lists will compete for the candidacy. The 'official' list (that is to say, the list backed by Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias) will be topped by former judge Manuela Carmena (Madrid, 1944) and includes Rita Maestre (member of the Podemos' national citizen council), Celia Mayer (Ganemos spokeswoman) and Inés Sabanés (Equo, formerly in IU). The second list represents the Podemos members who don't share the strategies of Claro que Podemos ("Of course we can", the Pablo Iglesias' team) and will include people from Ganemos as well. The dissident faction led by Miguel Urbán got remarkable results in the primaries held to elect the Madrid regional "citizen council" (the Podemos' political direction body). The third list will be topped by Mauricio Valiente, who was elected candidate for Mayor of Madrid in the past IU primaries teaming with Tania Sánchez. Unlike Ms. Sánchez, Mr. Valiente is still an IU member. It's uncertain if IU will rally with Ahora Madrid, because of the outright conflict inside IU Madrid.

Interactive map of regional candidates.

http://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-conoce-todos-candidatos-elecciones-autonomicas-2015-20150312124350.html

Regional polls.

Andalusian Parliament election (109 seats):

Sigma Dos / El Mundo

Img

My Word / Cadena SER

PSOE 33.6% (42), PP 22.3%(26-27), Podemos 19.9% (24-25), C's 10.7% (9-10), IU 6.2% (6-7), UPyD 2%, PA 1.4%, others 1.4%, blank votes 2.5%

Celeste-Tel / various Andalusian papers

PSOE 36.9% (49), PP 26.6% (34), Podemos 14% (16), C's 8.4% (5), IU 6.8% (5), PA 2.9%, UPyD 2.5%, others 1.9%

Commentia / Grupo Joly

PSOE 35.9% (41-46), PP 30.7% (36-39), Podemos 19.4% (18-21), C's 5.6% (5-6), IU 4.1% (3)

Catalonia:

CEO / Generalitat de Catalunya

Parliament of Catalonia (135 seats):

CiU 19.5% (31-32), ERC 18.9% (30-31), C's 12.4% (16-17), Podemos 12.2% (16-17), PP 10.2% (13-14), PSC 8.2% (11-12), CUP 7.3% (10-11), ICV-EUiA 5.8% (6-8), 0thers 3.9%, blank votes 1.6%

Congress of Deputies (general election, 47 seats):

Podemos 21.2% (11-12), CiU 18.8% (12), ERC 15.1% (8-9), PP 11.9% (5-6), PSC 10.8% (5-6), C's 7.9% (2-3), CUP 3.9% (1), ICV-EUiA 3.7% (1), others 4.9%, blank votes 1.8%

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=5268&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica+%28BOP%29.+1a+onada+2015

Basque Country (municipal elections):

http://www.electograph.com/2015/03/capitales-vascas-febrero-2015-sondeo.html

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Velasco
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« Reply #134 on: March 16, 2015, 12:13:48 pm »
« Edited: March 18, 2015, 08:00:55 am by Velasco »

The Andalusian campaign reaches the home run, marked by the duel between the parties that represent the "new" and the "old" politics. The outcome will be decided by undecided voters and the future Andalusian government by post-election pacts, given that polls place the likely winner far from getting a majority. Two emerging forces might have the key in the conformation of the government: Podemos and Ciudadanos. While premier Susana Díaz rejects the possibility of dealing with Podemos, she could find an ally if C's fulfills expectations and gets into the regional parliament. A deal between PSOE and C's seems to be the desired outcome for some people in mainstream media, although the new sensation of the Spanish centre-right could charge a high price to Susana Díaz in exchange for stability.

Susana Díaz has been running a personal, self-oriented campaign. The presence of Pedro Sánchez, the national leader of PSOE, has been reduced to the minimum. Sánchez has attended a single rally in Almería opening for Díaz (he didn't appear in the advertising poster of the event: see pic below) and will attend the final act of the campaign. The relationship between Sánchez and Díaz appears to be cold. Susana Díaz focuses on her 18 month management at the head of the regional government, avoiding mentions to 30 years of uninterrupted PSOE rule and specially to Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán, both former premiers under investigation for the ERE scandal. She emphasizes that there are no accused people in PSOE lists and her commitment against corruption. Her campaign message avoids mentions to PP corruption scandals as well; instead, she focuses on issues like public healthcare, nursery schools or scholarship grants. The targets of her criticism are the PP anti-social policies and Podemos. The Andalusian premier is a folksy woman who knows how to connect with common people. She is in her natural element in rural communities (where lies the PSOE strength, specially among women) and popular neighbourhoods, where she's cheered and congratulated for her pregnancy. Opening her campaign video, she introduces herself: "Hello, I'm Susana, you know me".

Img

In contrast, the rest of candidates have been supported by their national leaders. To counter the low level of knowledge of PP candidate José Manuel Moreno Bonilla, Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy has been actively present in the campaign. The conservative party tries to contain a flow of voters towards other parties, warning the "false promises" of parties which aspire to hold the balance of power (in allusion to C's) and the dangers of "experiments". PP message can be summarized as "the safest option is the devil you know".

Img


Podemos candidate Teresa Rodríguez, on her part, speaks cautiously trying to keep fear away and to avoid controversial issues and mistakes; opponents remain alert, trying to take advantage of the first and to whip out the latter. Teresa Rodríguez asks for "the vote of courage" which goes beyond resignation. Even though she's a long time activist who comes from the Anticapitalist Left, Teresa Rodríguez is a young woman who speaks softly and doesn't create the impression of being a light-headed radical. However, some people see her "constrained". Podemos campaign acts are usually crowded, especially when Pablo Iglesias and other national leaders are attending.

Despite the rise of Podemos is damaging IU, regional candidate Antonio Maíllo doesn't focus his criticism on them aside some mentions to the vagueness of their proposals. Maíllo ramarks that he's clearly a man on the left, the only one who is running in this election. The IU candidate prefers to charge against PP and PSOE. In the tripartite electoral debate held at the regional TV with Susana Díaz and José Manuel Moreno, Maíllo reproached them because their parties are filled with corruption and both were throwing the opponent's scandals to the face of the other. Maíllo is supported in public acts by national candidate Alberto Garzón, who deems a deal with PSOE as highly unlikely due to the break of the coalition government which led to the snap election. IU is fighting for preserving its own space.

On the other hand, the actual candidate of Ciudadanos is not the virtually unknown councilor Juan Marín. It's national leader Albert Rivera who often appears in the campaign affiches and supports his regional candidate in the acts throughout Andalusia. The C's campaign started with a controversy when Rivera talked about giving a fishing rod and teaching Andalusian to fish (that region has a remarkable seafaring tradition). Anyway, Rivera seems to have overcome what some people would have considered a sample of Catalan arrogance. Also, PP spokepersons know how to campaign for him, even without wanting. The delegate of the government in Andalusia dropped a clanger by saying that he doesn't want a Catalan governing Andalusia. Albert Rivera has something in common with the PP candidate: both were born in Barcelona and have family roots in Andalusia.

Img

Meanwhile, UPyD is fighting to survive. The hopes for the future of the party led by Rosa Díez are vanishing while Ciudadanos, the rival party which competes for the same space, seems to be in a poll honeymoon. Díez, who has been supporting the UPyD candidate Martin de la Herrán in Andalusia, says that waters run murky and there's more competence than before, but she assures that her party is solidly established in Spain. As well Ms Díez thinks that there's a clear motivation in some opinion polls, which in her opinion are aimed to direct the vote. Despite she claims having been under a "brutal pressure" and "attacks", she's determined to resist, endure and face up.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/03/15/55048d5e22601d41248b456e.html
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« Reply #135 on: March 18, 2015, 08:49:36 am »
« Edited: March 18, 2015, 08:55:29 am by Velasco »

Everything points to a PSOE minority government in Andalusia, if we take into account the last statements of Mariano Rajoy and some of the candidates. The Spanish PM assured on Monday that he will allow to govern the party with the most votes. Rajoy, who is fully committed to the campaign, said in a rally held in Málaga that voting IU, Podemos, C's and UPyD is underpinning PSOE in the regional government. On the other hand, Podemos and C's candidates discarded the option of joining a coalition government. Podemos' Teresa Rodríguez was categorical in saying that she's not going to be in a cabinet presided by Susana Díaz, while C's Juan Marín stated that compromising with PSOE is betraying the illusion of their voters.

For his part, IU candidate is engaging in a fight to recover those potential voters running away to Podemos; both parties are ignoring each other in the campaign. There's some lukewarm optimism among IU membership because last polls don't predict a collapse; Maíllo assures that they will give a surprise in the election day and be decisive in the next regional parliament. Also, UPyD spokeswoman Rosa Díaz is campaigning in Andalusia hunting for undecided. Party volunteers are telephoning voters, as well Ms Díez and the regional candidate. They seek being original by initiatives such as improvising meetings in trams or cleaning the Andalusian Parliament with a wipe (in the pic below, Rosa Díez and Martín de la Herrán in full corruption cleansing).

Img

On the other hand, the crisis in IU Madrid is far from being solved. People at the regional federation (IUCM) decided to run a proper list for the municipal elections, after they called referendum recently to reject the IU's involvement in Ahora Madrid with Podemos and other organisations. Candidate elect Mauricio Valiente has the choice of leaving the party or renouncing to run in the Ahora Madrid primaries. It's a blow for the IU national leadership, which intended to solve the conflict after the Andalusian elections. They fear the repetition of the events which some years ago led to the break of the IU's Basque federation.
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« Reply #136 on: March 21, 2015, 05:59:11 am »
« Edited: March 22, 2015, 10:20:32 am by Velasco »

End of campaign, if anybody cares. Seven candidates in the face of the polls. Summary of mistakes and hits.

Susana Díaz (PSOE):

The incumbent premier intends to win broad enough, in order to govern without problems. A presumed lack of stability in the coalition government was the reason gave by Susana Díaz to break the deal with IU; if she gets a bad result, she will be placed in a weak position. On the other hand, if she manages to gain a forceful victory which helps PSOE to avoid disaster at national level, her influence in the party will be unquestionable. Despite she claims that will stay governing Andalusia, Ms Díaz is the preferred leader for many PSOE heads.

- Hits: She had ran a grassroot campaign aimed to recover the typical socialist voters and has a remarkable ability to connect with the man (and the woman) in the street.

- Mistakes: In live television debates, she left a negative impression. Díaz played an anti-dialogue role, neither listening nor keeping the opponents' speaking time.

- Main proposals: Commitment against corruption and creation of an Anti-Fraud Office, lowering taxes, preservation of social services.

Juan Manuel Moreno (PP):

The challenge of the PP candidate is trying to avoid the bad results that polls have been predicting, with losses ranging between 10 and more than 20 seats. PP fears a knock-on effect in the May municipal elections; the conservative majorities in the Andalusian provincial capitals are at stake.

- Hits: Keeping calm in the debates, gaining an impression of reasonability before Susana Díaz.

- Mistakes: Waiting until the campaign to work on his public image, especially when he was a complete unknown for many Andalusians.

. Main proposals: Mariano Rajoy promised to create 1 million of jobs (literally) during the legislative period, as well as re-industrialisation policies and lowering taxes.

Antonio Maíllo (IU):

The IU candidate tries to preserve the IU strength in the Andalusian Parliament, retaining the 12 seats or at least containing losses.

- Hits: Serious campaign focused on proposals, good performance in debates.

- Mistakes: He has performed a complicated dance trying to highlight the positive aspects of the PSOE-IU coalition government while bashing socialists, as well as to make a difference with Podemos without explicit mentions to them.

- Main proposals: Guaranteeing basic supplies, Public Bank and creation of a Bank of Land.

Teresa Rodríguez (Podemos):

Her main challenge is not disappointing the expectations. Polls predict that Podemos will get strongly in the Andalusian Parliament as the third party with no less than 15 seats. After the election, she will seek the post of regional secretary general. Depending on results, this election might be the first step of the possible change that Podemos is promising for the country. If the result doesn't fulfill expectations, it could be considered as a sign of the beginning of Podemos decline.

- Hits: Booking a velodrome in Dos Hermanas (near Seville) for the final campaign rally, which took place tonight with an attendance estimated between 12 and 15 thousand people, the most crowded of the journey. That facility has been an emblematic place for the Andalusian socialists.

- Mistakes: Renouncing to intervene in a live television debate in which the alternative forces were invited. Podemos sent another representative.

- Main proposals: Citizen's rescue establishing an emergency program for people in risk of social exclusion and eviction; limitation of terms; right of revocation at midterm; audit of public accounts; Office of Public Participation in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Juan Marín (Ciudadanos):

Ciudadanos wants to be the party which holds the balance of power in Andalusia, a result unthinkable few months ago.

- Hits: The campaign highlighted the C's label over the low profile of the candidate, with the ubiquitous and good looking Albert Rivera playing the starring role.

- Mistakes: The Rivera's "fishing rod" metaphor at the beginning of the campaign, which sounded arrogant to Andalusian people.

- Main proposals: Local reform merging municipalities below 5,000 people; integrated action plan for families, freelancers and SMEs; administrative rationalisation to prevent squandering.

Martín de la Herrán (UPyD):

The UPyD candidate is the only who ran in 2012. This election might be the last chance for UPyD to get into the regional parliament.

- Hits: Original and suggestive campaign.

- Mistakes: Despite the above mentioned, UPyD has been blurred by Podemos and Ciudadanos.

- Main proposals: Fight against corruption, legislation to prevent budget cuts.

Antonio Jesús Ruiz (PA):

The regionalist Andalusian Party has been unrepresented in the regional parliament since 2008. The PA enters in the 50th year of existence.

- Hits: Not giving up.

- Mistakes: Pretending to be the only ones whom wave the Andalusian flag. On the other hand, advocating for regional patriotism is not enough in the current state of affairs.

Freak Time!!!

Img

The ultraconservative Vox Party broadcasted a campaign video recreating a dystopian islamized Andalusia in the year 2018. An hypothetical (and obviously mean) Podemos-PSOE administration would have expropriated the Mosque of Córdoba and the Giralda of Seville from the hands of the Catholic Church, in order to consecrate them for Muslim worship. Spanish PM Pablo Iglesias (Podemos), representatives from 20 Muslim countries and even Celia Villalobos from the Andalusian PP would be attending a great event at the Córdoba Mosque. One can suppose that the reestablishment of the Cordoba Caliphate would be around corner.

All this nonsense is due to a Podemos proposal to return those historical monuments to public ownership. The Mosque and the Giralda were granted to the Church during the Franco regime and the Bishopric of Córdoba collects a good sum of money by selling tickets to visitors, with the aggravating factor that information leaflets name the monument "Cathedral", which is certainly unhistorical. Given that after the Castilian conquest the Mosque was consecrated to Christian worship, many people calls the monument "Mosque-Cathedral".

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« Reply #137 on: March 22, 2015, 07:29:30 am »

So how are things looking ?
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« Reply #138 on: March 22, 2015, 08:10:38 am »

This is what is saying the online paper eldiario.es. Take it with a grain of salt.

Apparently, internal surveys commissioned by the main parties place PSOE between 45 and 48 seats, falling short between 7 and 10 seats of a majority. PP would lose much ground getting between 23% and 25% of the vote and winning 29-31 seats. Podemos would win around 15 seats, which sounds somewhat disappointing. Ciudadanos would get into the regional parliament winning more than 10 seats and holding the balance of power. Finally, IU would place 5th.
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« Reply #139 on: March 22, 2015, 08:42:52 am »
« Edited: March 22, 2015, 09:05:32 am by Velasco »

It seems that turnout is going to be higher than it was in 2012. At 14:00 (CET) was nearly 34% (+4.7%).

Turnout by province at 14:00, from the official website.

Almería 32.87% (+3.65%)

Cádiz 31.15% (+5.4%)

Córdoba 35.96% (+4.11%)

Granada 34.8% (+3.95%)

Huelva 30.8% (+3.78%)

Jaén 36.76% (+3.87%)

Málaga 32.22% (+4.13%)

Sevilla 33.94% (+5.94%)

Total Andalusia 33.94% (+4.65%)

http://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2015.es/01AVAU/DAU01000CI_L1.htm
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« Reply #140 on: March 22, 2015, 12:57:21 pm »

Turnout at 18:00 (CET)

Almería 48.35% (+2.39%)

Cádiz 48.19% (+6.34%)

Córdoba 53.57% (+3.34%)

Granada 51.86% (+2.44%)

Huelva 46.88% (+2.76%)

Jaén 54.2% (+1.85%)

Málaga 49.61% (+4.95%)

Sevilla 54.83% (+5.3%)

Total Andalusia 51.41% (+4.2%)
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« Reply #141 on: March 22, 2015, 01:21:05 pm »

First results will be released at 21:00 (CET). It's half an hour later than it was intended and it's due to some problem in a polling station located in Jerez (Cádiz).

Turnout is increasing more in left-leaning districts of Seville. For instance, it's nearly 10% up in Este-Alcosa-Torreblanca and about 9% up in Macarena Norte. PP strongholds in the city are recording lower increases (Los Remedios +1.1%, Nervión + 3.8%).

In the Cádiz province, turnout in Puerto Real is increasing more than 10%. In the EP elections PSOE got around 40% and Podemos placed second with 19%.

In general, turnout is increasing more in urban than rural areas.
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« Reply #142 on: March 22, 2015, 01:38:07 pm »

According to journalist Javier Casqueiro (El País), there is concern at PSOE and PP because they are polling bad at Israelites.

The same journalist provides a projection based on exit polls via Tweeter:

PSOE 41-43 seats, PP 33-36, Podemos 23-26, IU 6, C's 6.
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« Reply #143 on: March 22, 2015, 02:12:52 pm »
« Edited: March 22, 2015, 02:19:56 pm by Velasco »

Canal Sur Exit Poll

PSOE  33.1% (41-44 seats), PP 26.9% (32-35), Podemos 17.5% (19-22),  C's 8% (6-7), IU 7.3% (6-7).

Official results in approx 1 hour:

http://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2015.es/01AU/DAU01999CM_L1.htm
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Velasco
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« Reply #144 on: March 22, 2015, 03:33:58 pm »

The count is going fast. At 53.1%

PSOE 37.6% (50 seats), PP 25.03% (32), Podemos 14.96% (15), C's 8.61% ( 8 ), IU 6.97% (4), UPyD 1.87%, PA 1.63%, PACMA 0.8%, Vox 0.41%
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« Reply #145 on: March 22, 2015, 03:45:41 pm »

The count is going fast. At 53.1%

PSOE 37.6% (50 seats), PP 25.03% (32), Podemos 14.96% (15), C's 8.61% ( 8 ), IU 6.97% (4), UPyD 1.87%, PA 1.63%, PACMA 0.8%, Vox 0.41%

After about 70% of the vote counted, PSOE is still at 50 seats. So, it seems  the exit poll has underestimated PSOE a bit (and overestimated Podemos)
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« Reply #146 on: March 22, 2015, 03:58:38 pm »

So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's
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jeron
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« Reply #147 on: March 22, 2015, 04:20:01 pm »

So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's

A new coalition between PSOE and IU wasn't very likely anyway considering the events in the last couple of months. The only possibilty for a majority government seems to be a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition.
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« Reply #148 on: March 22, 2015, 04:42:26 pm »

So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's

A new coalition between PSOE and IU wasn't very likely anyway considering the events in the last couple of months. The only possibilty for a majority government seems to be a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition.

But I'm quite sure that the PSOE would have liked it as a majority possibility when proposing laws. In many cases they would probably still be the easiest party for them to agree with
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Velasco
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« Reply #149 on: March 22, 2015, 04:54:07 pm »

So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's

A new coalition between PSOE and IU wasn't very likely anyway considering the events in the last couple of months. The only possibilty for a majority government seems to be a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition.

But I'm quite sure that the PSOE would have liked it as a majority possibility when proposing laws. In many cases they would probably still be the easiest party for them to agree with

There will be a PSOE minority government, in all likelihood propped up by Ciudadanos. A PSOE-C's coalition agreement is very unlikely, given that there are many elections this year and joining a socialist cabinet would harm the Albert Rivera party. Firstly, because many of C's voters come from PP; secondly, because they intend to represent the "new politics" in competition with Podemos.

The count is almost finished and the picture is not going to move.

At 99.4%:

PSOE 35.45% (47 seats), PP 26.74% (33), Podemos 14.84% (15), C's 9,27% (9), IU 6.89% (5), UPyD 1.93%, PA 1.63%, PACMA 0.8%, Vox 0.45%

In a quick valuation, I'd say...

Winners: Susana Díaz (PSOE), Albert Rivera (C's)

Podemos: Mixed feelings. It's really a strong result for a new party, but not enough to change things (and they expected around 20 seats)

Losers: Mariano Rajoy (PP), IU, UPyD
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