Spanish elections and politics

[Nanwe]

Yet another poll for the region of Madrid. I think it shows Metroscopia is the rather off one.

In this scenario, the current Cifuentes government would lose its majority, being replaced with a left-wing PSOE-Podemos government. The polling was done in the last couple of days, so it reflects the Operación Lezo aftermath.

La Sexta/Invymark

PP: 44 seats (30.9%) (-4 seats, -2.2 pp.)
PSOE: 36 seats (25.8%) (-1 seats, +0.4 pp.)
Podemos: 30 seats (21.3%) (+3 seats, +2.7 pp.)
Ciudadanos: 19 seats (13.5%)(+2 seats, +1.4 pp.)

While it's true Madrid won't deviate too much from the national vote, Madrid I think is the region where Ciudadanos can obtain its best results, so depending on how things develop down the road with regards to what seems to be only the beginning of yet another round of tremendous PP corruption scandals, it could be greatly benefited. Also, Madrid does experience dual voting insofar as the PSM is no longer the second most-voted party in the general election, but remains so in the autonomic elections, perhaps as the PSM's candidate, Ángel Gabilondo is a pretty popular person in the left (thanks to his tenure as Education Minister under ZP) and who's not unpopular amongst the right either. I know a few friends who liked Gabilondo's smooth, tranquil political persona and voted for him in the regional election, but Podemos (or even Ciudadanos) in the local and the national election.

[Nanwe]

Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?

No idea. I think Carmena is on the moderate side of the party while Colau has her own party and stuff (Podemos' alliances can get really complicated really fast). As for PSOE stealing either, I don't see that as an option.

For Carmena I'm not even sure if she'll run for reelection as she is quite old already. She's 73, would be 75 in 2019 and 79 if she finished a second term. But if she does I doubt that she'll betray Ahora Madrid. Of the 2 she is the likelier to move to PSOE but that's still extremely unlikely as she's been in the far left her entire life (she was a candidate for MP for the Communist Party in 1977 for example)

Carmena has ruled out running again so many times lately that I can't count. Also, iirc, Carmena has a difficult relation with the Podemos members of her municipal team.


After yesterday's primaries, I think it's a great time to bring this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8b50DVamw

[Nanwe]

El País: "Catalonia to immediately declare independence if no referendum held"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/05/22/inenglish/1495435474_319567.html

They've gone nuts. If the leaked draft is true, they'd literally end separation of powers by directly appointing judges in the interim. And declaring independence if there's no referendum assumes that they have a mandate to do so - and they don't based on the votes of the previous autonomic election or polls lately.

It's an incredible leap into the unknown and I feel like a lot of noise is going to be coming from the PDECat's more autonomist wing about this nonsense.

Also, mapped the primaries.

[Nanwe]

Those maps are really cool, as it happens, I'm actually trying to do the same thing, I was surprised by how similar the Vizcaya province districts are. However, I do wonder where they found the information to divide Santander or Oviedo by district - I've been looking and I can't find it anywhere. Same for Valladolid, and iirc Burgos too.

[Nanwe]

So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.

Yeah, clearly. And things like fiscal Moix's designation (and resignation) do no help matters at all. I'm not sure Rajoy can recover from all the accusations of judicial interference or the photos of him going to declare as witness in the Audiencia Nacional.

[Nanwe]

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier

[Nanwe]

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier

Not really. NC Report has PP a lot higher and PSOE a lot lower. UP and Cs are also not the same (although they are closer). Anyways, if you average the 3 polls you get:

PP 30.9%
PSOE 23.1%
UP 19.4%
Cs 15.6%

So compared to June 2016, PP is down by 2, PSOE up by 0.5, UP down by 1.5 and Cs up by 2.5

Seems about right. Although considering the implications of Sanchez's election and Operación Lezo and the incoming  visit of Rajoy to the Audiencia Nacional and the optics of it, we need to look at the trend.

[Nanwe]

Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.

Not quite. The arrests and registers carried out today are unrelated to the referendum, and instead have to do with a corruption case dating back to January involving Santi Vila. Indeed, they were ordered by a judge independently of the government (the govt. can pressure fiscales, but hardly the judges)

The ballots is another story, of course.

[Nanwe]

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.

From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.

I think, cynically, because it will play to the victimism of the Catalan völkisch cause and lend them further support as "underdogs" in the upcoming regional elections. Also I feel like the acceleration of events has to do with the bad showing in the polls recently. Indeed, just today a poll was released showing that ERC+PDECAT+CUP lacked a majority.