Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

According to the GESOP tracking, Xavier Trias seems to be consolidating a slight advantage over Ada Colau in Barcelona. In the graph, preferred mayor and direct vote intention.

Full poll here:

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/44212/trias-consolida-su-ligera-ventaja-sobre-colau

[Velasco]

Since it's election day, a brief recap of all the Spanish parties today:

Nice. At the end of the day Mr Burns finances all of them, isn't it? Except Podemos people because of the crowdfunding, although they indeed have a Messiah The only thing is the characterisation of C's: Rivera and his followers dress more elegantly than that.

Could you vote by mail? It's not easy with the voto rogado system.

I voted at midday and it was the first time that I had to queue at the polling booth. But not at the ballot box, luckily. There are several census sections in the poling station and mine has few voters -people had to wait at the more crowded box on my right. I had to cast three ballots: regional parliament, councilors and Cabildo.

However, the report from Ministry of Interior said that turnout decreased by 1% nationwide at 14:00 (CET) with regard to 2011 (34.8% to 35.8%). Figures correspond to the municipal elections that are being held in all of Spain.

[Velasco]

Turnout nationwide at 18:00 (CET): 49.78% (49.19% in 2011).

High increases in the cities of Barcelona  (+8%) and San Sebastián (+7%). Turnout is about 3% higher in the cities of Madrid (53.3% / 50.41%) and Valencia, while decreases about 3% in Seville (45.23% / 45.11%).

95% of the 1.8 million of Spaniards living abroad won't vote in this election. Protests have taken place in 40 cities around the world (Amsterdam, Berlin, Boston, Buenos Aires and Copenhagen, among others) against the law that regulates vote abroad (the voto rogado), which puts many administrative obstacles to vote by mail and was passed in 2010 with the support of PSOE, PP, CiU and BNG. Nowadays socialists promise to change it once in power, while PP is against any reform of the system because "it's a guarantee". Fun fact: In the Andalusian election Podemos won the overseas vote; votes cast were a few thousand, though.

[Velasco]

Exit polls for regional televisions.

City of Madrid (Tele Madrid): AM 33.8% (22-23 councilors), PP 31.9% (19-22), PSOE 15.5% (9-10), C's 10.8% (6-7).

Madrid Regional Assembly: PP 30.8% (43-46 seats), PSOE 33-36 seats, Podemos 22.3% (30-33), C's 12%  (16-18)

Barcelona (TV3): BComú 10-12, CiU 9-11 councilors, PSC 4-5, C's 4-5, ERC 3-4, CUP 3-4

Seville (Canal Sur): PSOE 12-14 councilors, PP 10-12, C's 4, Participa Sevilla (Podemos) 4, IU 2.

Antena 3 says that PP takes the lead in Madrid with 21-23 councilors, followed by Ahora Madrid (17-19), while in Barcelona CiU would get 11-12 councilors and Barcelona en Comú would trail getting 10-11, PSC 5-6, PP 4-5 and ERC 3-4.

According to Antena 3 exit poll, PP would get 27% nationwide (-10%) and PSOE 25% (-2%). Podemos and C's would win seats in every regional parliament.

This is going to be exciting to watch.

Any English language results pages?

I don't know anyone. I'll link the official website once they are reporting official results. Booths are still open in the Canaries.

[Velasco]

Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.

[Velasco]

You can check regional and municipal results in El País website (as well in other media outlets):

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/autonomicas-municipales.html

Provisional results of local elections in the Ministry of Interior:

http://resultadoslocales2015.interior.es/99MU/DMU99999TO_L1.htm

[Velasco]

Count in the Basque Country is going quite fast. PNV retains Bilbao (at 91.7%), wins San Sebastían to EH Bildu (which falls to the third place) and PP retains a plurality in Vitoria.

Bilbao (91.7%): PNV 13 councilors, EH Bildu 4, PSE-EE 4, PP 4, Udalberri-Bilbao en Cmún 2, Ganemos 2.

Donostia / San Sebastián (74.2%): PNV 9, PSE-EE 7, EH Bildu 7, PP 2, Irabazi 2

Vitoria / Gasteiz (82%): PP 9, EH Bildu 6, PNV 5, PSE-EE 4, Hemen-Gaude (Podemos) 2, Irabazi (IU-Equo-Ganemos) 1

In Andalusia, PSOE wins Seville to PP while in Málaga the blues retain the first place.

Seville (84.9%): PSOE 12, PP 11, C's 3, Participa Sevilla 3, IU 2

Málaga (81%): PP 13, PSOE 9, Málaga Ahora 4, C's 3, IU 2

By the moment Ada Colau (BComú) is ahead in Barcelona getting 12 councilors with the count approx. at 38.9%. In Madrid the count is at 14.66%. Ahora Madrid is slightly ahead of PP and both lists are tied at 20 councilors.

[Velasco]

Madrid (83.9%): PP 21 councilors, AM 19, PSOE 10, C's 7.

Manuela Carmena could be mayor propped up by PSOE but, as the count has progressed, socialists have lost 1 councilor to PP. Still too close to call, because the left has a single seat majority. IU and UPyD are getting 1.8% each.

Barcelona (92.8%): BComú 11 councilors, CiU 10, ERC 5, C's 5, PSC 4, PP 3, CUP 3.

More complicated, but Ada Colau has chances to be the next mayor.

Valencia (79.1%): PP 10 councilors, Compromís 9, C's 6, PSOE 5, Valencia en Comú 3.  IU is out of the council getting 4.7% of the vote (threshold is at 5%).

Compromís is the big surprise and can win the mayoralty with the support of PSOE and the Podemos outfit.

Zaragoza (97.1%): PP 10, Zaragoza en Común (ZGZ) 9, PSOE 6, C's 4, CHA 2.

ZGZ includes Podemos and IU. It can win the mayoralty with the support of PSOE and the regionalist CHA. I've just heard to some political sciencist that the city of Zaragoza is considered a kind of experimental ground to spot urban vote trends.

Regional count is progressing more slowly.

Asturias is already at 70%: PSOE 14 seats, PP 11, Podemos 10, IU 5, C's 3, FAC 2.

PSOE and IU resist, while Foro Asturias fails miserably. Podemos comes in a strong 3rd getting nearly 20% of the vote. It's possible that the good result for IU (12.3%) can be attributed to candidate Gaspar Llamazares.

Navarre is at 62%: UPN 15, Geroa Bai 9, EH Bildu 8, PSOE 7, Podemos 7, PP 2, IU 2

Better than expected for PSOE.

[Velasco]

Barcelona at 99.2%

BComú 25.2% (11 councilors), CiU 22.7% (10), C's 11.1% (5), ERC 11% (5), PSC 9.7% (4), PP 8.7% (3), CUP 7.4% (3).

Madrid at 91.6%

PP 34.1% (21 councilors), AM 32.1% (20), PSOE 15.6% (9), C's 11.3% (7)

Valencia at 91.8%

PP 25.8% (10 councilors), Compromís 23.3% (9), C's 15.4% (6), PSOE 14% (5), VEC 9.8% (3), IU 4.7%

Seville at 92.6%

PP 33% (12), PSOE 32.2% (11), C's 9.3% (3), Participa Sevilla 9.1% (3), IU 6% (2)

Zaragoza at 99.6%

PP 26.9% (10), ZGZ 24.6% (9), PSOE 18.6% (6), C's 12.3% (4), CHA 6.8% (2)

[Velasco]

I know the failure of UpyD has been a long time coming, but these results (especially from Madrid) have to make them pause for thought. Will they even last to the general.

What happened to Bildu?  PODEMOS stole their thunder?

I'm afraid that UPyD is done. I'm not going to try to explain the reasons now. Results will deepen the UPyD crisis.

The lists backed by Podemos are not getting extraordinay results in the Basque Country. I think the loss of Donostia can be attributed to local factors, and it's a big success for PNV (the party recovers a city lost nearly 30 years ago).

By the moment, count progress say that PP can lose the regions of Aragon, Valencia, Balearic Islands, Extremadura and Madrid. It holds Murcia and La Rioja.

EDIT: Rosa Díez is speaking right now. She won't run in the general election. Spokesman Andrés Herzog says that UPyD is still alive.

[Velasco]

Regional elections.

Aragon (at 99.1%)

PP 27.5% (21 seats), PSOE 21.4% (18), Podemos 20.5% (14), PAR 6.9% (6), C's 9.4% (5) CHA 4.6% (2), IU 4.2% (1)

PP possibly ousted by PSOE, Podemos, CHA and IU

Asturias (at 99.3%)

PSOE 26.4% (14 seats), PP 21.6% (11), Podemos 19% (9), IU 11.9% (5), FAC 8.2% (3), C's 7.1% (3)

Balearic Islands (at 99.2%)

PP 28.5% (20), PSOE 18.9% (14), Podemos 14.7% (10), Més per Mallorca 13.8% (6), PI 8% (3), Més per Menorca 1.5% (3), C's 5.9% (2), Gent (Formentera) 0.5% (1), IU 1.7% (-)

PSOE may govern allied with Podemos and the nationalist Més (Mallorca and Menorca).

Canary Islands (at 99.3%)

CC 18.2% (18), PSOE 19.9% (15), PP 18.6% (12), Podemos 14.5% (7), NC 10.2% (5), ASG 0,6% (3), C's 5.9% (-), UNIDOS 3.6% (-), IU+nationalists 2.2% (-)

C's fails to reach the 6% regional threshold and is out, while Casimiro Curbelo (ASG) wins a landslide in La Gomera surpassing the 30% insular threshold. The surrealistic electoral system allows CC to win a plurality of seats being the 3rd party in popular vote. PSOE resists and wins a plurality of votes, Podemos gets in strongly and the New Canaries improves (winning the Gran Canaria Cabildo). PP downfall; they'll become irrelevant. CC is inevitable to form coalitions.

Cantabria (at 98.6%)

PP 32.6% (13), PRC 30% (12), PSOE 14% (5), Podemos 8.8% (3), C's 6.9% (2), IU 2.5% (-)

Possibly PRC and socialists may govern propped up by Podemos.

Castilla-La Mancha (at 99.3%)

PP 37.5% (16), PSOE 36.1% (14), Podemos 9.7% (3), C's 8.6% (-), IU 3.1% (-)

Dolores de Cospedal has lost, despite winning a plurality. PSOE may govern propped up by Podemos.

Castilla y León (at 99.5%)

PP 37.9% (42), PSOE 25.9% (25), Podemos 12.1% (10), C's 10.3% (5), IU 4.1% (1), UPL 1.4% (1), UPyD 1.4% (-)

PP holds getting 1/2 of the seats.

Extremadura (at 99.8%)

PSOE 41.5% (20), PP 37% (28), Podemos 8% (6), C's 4.4% (1), IU 4.3% (-)

Fernández Vara (PSOE) defeats Monago (PP).

La Rioja (at 98%)

PP 38.5% (15), PSOE 26.6% (10), Podemos 11.2% (4), C's 10.5% (4)

Likely PP holds.

Madrid (at 99.96%)

PP 33.1% (48), PSOE 25.4% (37), Podemos 18.6% (27), C's 12.1% (17), IU 4.1% (-), UPyD 2%, Vox 1.2% (-), PACMA 1%

Cristina Cifuentes (PP) may govern propped up by C's.

Murcia (at 98.9%)

PP 37.4% (22), PSOE 24% (13), Podemos 13.1% (6), C's 12.5% (4), IU 4.8% (-), UPyD 1.6% (-)

Likely PP holds; it's one seat short from majority.

Navarre (at 99.3%)

UPN 27.3% (15), Geroa Bai 15.9% (9), EH Bildu 14.3% ( 8 ), Podemos 13.7% (7), PSOE 13.4% (7), PP 3.9% (2), IU 3.7% (2),  C's 2.9% (-)

Possible majority adding Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and IU. C's fails to reach the 3% threshold which allows to win seats.

Valencia (at 99.3%)

PP 26.2% (31), PSOE 20.3% (23), Compromís 18.2% (19), C's 12.3% (13), Podemos 11.2% (13), IU 4.3% (-), UPyD 1.1% (-)

PSOE, Compromís and Podemos can oust PP from government. Great result for Mónica Oltra (I'd say she's the moral victor here). Compromís transcends the (limited) regionalist vote in Valencia.

PP gets a majority in the autonomous city of Ceuta and falls short by one seat in Melilla (likely hold).

[Velasco]

wtf is happening in Castilla La Mancha? Did nobody tell them this election is about the downfall of two-party politics?

Also they must have some crazy high threshold, because C's has 8.73% of the vote and no seats.

Dolores de Cospedal decided to reduce drastically the number of seats in the regional assembly. That move can be counterproductive for her if she doesn't win the 17th seat. The region must be the most polarised between PP and PSOE, alongside with Extremadura (PSOE wins).

hilarious municipal results in Catalonia.

Podemos's insistence on running in like a billion municipal outfits really makes it complicated to assess how well they did on a national scale lol.

I wouldn't try to calculate that. Madrid and Barcelona have been huge succeses, but results are very heterogeneous through all Spain. Municipal results in Catalonia would deserve more attention. Too many things happening.

[Velasco]

Can someone tell me what has happened in Soria - PSOE have gotten the most votes but PP have by far the most councillors.

In the provincial total PSOE gets more votes but less councilors than PP. However, in the town of Soria (the capital) PSOE has a big lead getting 47% of the vote and a majority of councilors. Maybe PSOE has won in other provincial centres, but PP must have won in most of the small municipalities. The province has a lot of municipalities with less than 1000 votes, a councilor is "cheaper" in those places.

[Velasco]

It seems that PP can lose my hometown.

Las Palmas de Gran Canaria is at 99.7%.

PP 28.7% (10 councilors), PSOE 19.7% (7), Podemos outfit 16.1% (6), C's 7.7% (2), NC 7.5% (2), UxGC 5.6% (2). PSOE+Podemos+NC add 15 out of 29 councilors. Great news.

Cabildo of Gran Canaria (at 99.5%):

NC 26.5% (9 councilors), PP 17.5% (6), PSOE 14.5% (5), Podemos 13.4% (4), UxGC 11.3% (4), CC 5.6% (1), C's 4.3% (-), IU 1.5%

Antonio Morales (NC) will be next president of the Cabildo. It's a good candidate and I voted for him, even though I despise his party. PP downfall while incumbent president (a PP old timer who got angry at Minister of Industry José Manuel Soria) gets into the Cabildo leading the Unidos por Gran Canaria outfit (UxGC).

[Velasco]

They could have done better.

[Velasco]

The results in Madrid municipal districts are fun to watch too (available in the official site).

Manuela Carmena gets 49.1% in Centro to Esperanza Aguirre's 26.5%. That district includes the Lavapiés neighbourhood, which is the birth place of Podemos. Esperanza Aguirre gets 52.3% in Salamanca and Carmena 20.8%. In Puente de Vallecas PP comes third (18.1%) behind AM (42.2%) and PSOE (25%).

In Barcelona there are huge differences between districts. Better with maps, I guess.

[Velasco]

Fun fact: all 4 seats returned from La Gomera to the Canarian Parliament are 'socialist'. The Casimiro Curbelo outfit (ASG, something like "Gomera Socialist Grouping") wins 3 seats and PSOE the remaining.

Cabildo of La Gomera (100%).

ASG 50.2% (10 councilors), PSOE 15.3% (3), PP 9.2% (1), SSP (Podemos) 9.2% (1), NC 9% (1), CC 6.2% (1)

[Velasco]

In the region of Madrid things have reversed a bit (PP +1, PSOE -1). With the count at 98% PP wins 48 seats, PSOE 37, Podemos 27 and C's 17. PP+C's 65, PSOE+Podemos 64. Cristina Cifuentes (PP) could hold if C's allows her. Dual vote in the city of Madrid between Manuela Carmena and Ángel Gabilondo. In the regional election PP gets 35% in the capital (more than Aguirre in the local), PSOE 25.7%, Podemos 17.8% and C's 11.3%.

Valencia seems definitely lost for PP, both the city and the region.

[Velasco]

Galician municipalities.

Marea Atlántica (AGE, Podemos) is ahead by 100 votes of PP in La Coruña winning 10 councilors each, PSOE wins 6 and BNG 1.

Compostela Aberta (same as Marea) is ahead in Santiago winning 11 councilors, PP 10, PSOE 4 and BNG 2.

Socialist landslide in Vigo: PSOE 17 councilors, PP 7 and Marea de Vigo 3.

[Velasco]

NYT: "Ruling party Loses Hold as Leftists surge in Spain"

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/25/world/europe/ruling-party-loses-hold-as-leftists-surge-in-spain.html?hpw&rref=world&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=1

Wall Street Journal: "Podemos and Ciudadanos Punish Spain's Ruling Popular Party in Regional Elections"

Le Monde: Indignados Surge.

http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2015/05/25/elections-en-espagne-percee-historique-des-indignes_4639655_3214.html

The Guardian: "Spain's indignados could rule Madrid and Barcelona after local election success"

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/25/spains-indignados-ada-colau-elections-mayor-barcelona

La Reppublica: "Electoral earthquake"

http://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2015/05/24/news/elezioni_amministrative_spagna-115170250/?ref=HREA-1

O Globo: The left advances.

http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/esquerda-avanca-na-espanha-toma-terreno-do-pp-16251279

[Velasco]

Nanwe, did you know that Esperanza Aguirre and Dolores de Cospedal lacked of a platform until the very end of the campaign? Finally Aguirre drafted a 10 point leaflet: hilarious. This morning Aguirre's campaign has been called "arrogant" and "disastrous", even by conservative analysts like Javier Zarzalejos (a very smart man, on the other hand). Both Aguirre and Cospedal deserved their defeats, as well Rita Barberá and León de la Riva (he's indeed an asshole). Podemos and C's (the latter taking advantage of the gap opened by the former) are relevant national actors now, but they can't say their victory is complete. From now on, they'll have to negotiate and reach compromises. Things are going to be much more interesting. In what regards coalitions or governability agreements, nothing is certain. However, Podemos people said that in neither case they were going to let PP govern if it was depending on them.

[Velasco]

Nice graphs. I'll take a look at the PP generation's gap thing

Five urgent measures that Manuela Carmena will implement within the first hundred of days of her government, providing that she becomes mayor with the help of PSOE:

1) Provide the means and municipal resources necessary to stop first home evictions and guarantee alternative housing.

2) Stop the privatisation of public utilities, the outsource of municipal services to big businesses and the sale of public heritage.

3) Guaranteeing basic supplies such as water and energy to all households that can't afford them.

4) Guaranteeing access to municipal health protection, as well to health promotion and prevention actions to all people, regardless of their administrative status (irregulars, for instance)

5) Urgent job placement scheme to young people and long-time unemployed.

Barcelona en Comú has an emergency plan, too. I have no time to translate now.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/05/25/madrid/1432556977_450859.html

Interactive map of results by municipality:

http://elpais.com/especiales/2015/elecciones-autonomicas-municipales/graficos/municipios/

[Velasco]

The C's are getting in on the #orangeisthenewblue hashtag, lifted from Alberta.

https://twitter.com/EGigamesh/status/601011071432929281

Is it a good idea for C's to partner up so willingly with PP? My knowledge is that C's supporters are anti-establishment and centrist so are their supporters going to accept them being in a position similar to Lib Dem in the UK? Why can't a PSOE-C coalition be considered? I thought PP was further from the centre than PSOE (which shouldn't be scary at all to centrists) so that would be the natural to way to defeat incumbent PPs while preventing Podemos (which might scare centrists) from taking power.

C's doesn't want to create the impression of being a sort of preferential ally for PP and Albert Rivera states that he's open to speak with PP, PSOE and even Podemos. The point is that C's is the only possible ally for PP. In the 4 regions where the orange party holds the balance of power there are very little chances for governments alternative to PP (cases of Murcia, Castilla y León and La Rioja), except in the region of Madrid (C's can support a PP minority government or abstain allowing a PSOE-Podemos administration). C's is not going to join any type of coalition, in any case they could give confidence and supply under certain conditions. PSOE and C's are not so far from each other and they may or may not cooperate in some places, including the unlock of the investiture of socialist premier Susana Díaz in Andalusia. However, PSOE needs Podemos in regions like Valencia, Castilla-La Mancha, the Balearic Islands, etc. C's is closer to PP on economic policies and issues like immigration and healthcare benefits. The bulk of C's support comes from PP and UPyD. C's voters are "reformist" rather than "anti-establishment" and a majority is placed on the centre and the centre-right side of the spectrum. According to an analysis of the CIS April survey that I translated in a previous post, the main risk for C's would be being associated unequivocally with the mainstream right, so Albert Rivera will be careful because he's not stupid. C's and PSOE share "liberal" stances on some social issues. Also, as a news posted before says, C's considers that PSOE has taken little but insufficient steps toward "regeneration" while Mariano Rajoy's PP is in total stasis. Rajoy is the main problem for PP right now.

Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?

Some of the parties are Balearic regionalists, others are island-specific. It's pretty weird. Plus Catalan nationalists coexist with Podemos outfit and IU.

I think the graph is wrong in what regards possible alliances in the Balearic Islands. The second option looks like unworkable: I can hardly see Podemos and PI (many of their members come from PP) together. Otherwise graphs are very informative. Summary of Balearic parties:

MÉS (Més per Mallorca): Majorcan coalition including PSM-Entesa* (Majorca nationalists), Iniciativa Verds (IU splinter associated with Equo) and ERC. It's placed on the left ranging from ecosocialism to Catalan separatism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A9s_per_Mallorca

MpM (Més per Menorca): Coalition similar to MÉS that operates in Menorca island.

*PSM-Entesa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PSM-Nationalist_Agreement

PI (Proposta per les Illes): Centre-right regionalist party formed by the merger of smaller parties. It's ""socially and politically a big tent, balearista political formation with a tendency to centrism". It's stronger in Majorca island.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposta_per_les_Illes

GxF+PSIB: GxF is Gent per Formentera (People for Formentera), a left leaning party from that island not so different from the Més coalitions in Majorca and Menorca. PSIB is the name of the regional branch of PSOE.

MÉS got 17.1% in Majorca, MpM 17.5% in Menorca and Gent per Eivissa (GxE) 3.85% in Ibiza. PI got 8.8% in Majorca, 3.2% in Menorca and 5.7% in Ibiza.

[Velasco]

We'll see how it ends. Given the course of PP, there was a huge gap on the centre-right of the spectrum and Albert Rivera was passing by

Now that I remember, the Majorcan Union (Unió Mallorquina, a precedent of the PI) joined in 2007 a coalition government with PSOE and Balearic nationalists. The UM was led by an interesting woman called Maria Antònia Munar, who quitted politics in 2010 because she and her party were involved in several corruption scandals. Munar was sentenced to five years in prison. UM wrecked* in the 2011 elections after having being the party which held the balance of power in the region for a couple of decades, supporting alternatively PP and PSOE.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majorcan_Union

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Ant%C3%B2nia_Munar

*EDIT: Actually, UM was declared officially dead and its reminders conformed a new party called Convergence for the Isles (Convergència per les Illes, CxI), which ran in the 2011 and later merged with other regionalist outfits in Proposal for the Isles (Proposta per les Illes), in November 2012.

[Velasco]

Possibly they have noted what happened with the LibDems. The discredit of PP due to corruption scandals is another factor, in all likelihood much more important. In that regard, there's not an analogous situation in the UK.