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tack50
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« Reply #1300 on: May 22, 2017, 03:00:46 am »


To be fair Andalucia has 1 in 4 PSOE members so it's not that big of a landslide. End result was 50-40-10.

Sanchez performed slightly better in terms of percentage compared to 2014 (when he got 49%)
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tack50
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« Reply #1301 on: May 22, 2017, 03:06:04 am »

And IMO Sanchez's election is a bold move. The PSOE has a lot to gain, but also a lot to lose.

If Sanchez is seen as believable and as a true leftist that isn't a radical one, they have a good shot at taking some of the more conservative Podemos voters (those on the Errejón side of the party). They will lose some voters to Cs (or possibly to abstentions) on the right, but not as many as they'd win on the left. Depending on how many net votes they win, they might even have a chance at winning the election! (something like PSOE 29%, PP 28%, Cs 16% Podemos 16%)

However  if it's seen as "just another move from obsessed egocentric Sanchez to become PM", then PSOE will lose those centrist voters while not gaining any left wing ones. Maybe even getting to Cs levels.
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« Reply #1302 on: May 22, 2017, 03:26:15 am »

Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?
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tack50
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« Reply #1303 on: May 22, 2017, 03:37:19 am »

Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?

No idea. I think Carmena is on the moderate side of the party while Colau has her own party and stuff (Podemos' alliances can get really complicated really fast). As for PSOE stealing either, I don't see that as an option.

For Carmena I'm not even sure if she'll run for reelection as she is quite old already. She's 73, would be 75 in 2019 and 79 if she finished a second term. But if she does I doubt that she'll betray Ahora Madrid. Of the 2 she is the likelier to move to PSOE but that's still extremely unlikely as she's been in the far left her entire life (she was a candidate for MP for the Communist Party in 1977 for example)

As for Colau, I think she is going to run for governor of Catalonia in the next regional election there. She'll run with her own party (en Comú), with her candidacy being supported by ICV (weird mix of greens and IU) and Podemos, like Cat si que es pot back in 2015. Last poll I checked had Colau in a tie for second with the Cs candidate Inés Arrimadas, both at 16%.

However, Colau will not support PSOE either.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1304 on: May 22, 2017, 04:29:39 am »

Remember that Ada Colau and Manuela Carmena are not Podemos members and they are officially neutral. Carmena is an independent and is generally regarded as a moderate. I think that the Colau people has a more fluent relationship with the Errejón faction. I'm not sure that Ada Colau is going to run in the next election in Catalonia. I think she wants to finish her term as Mayor of Barcelona. In case of a snap election the candidate could be Xavier Domenech, who was the top candidate for Barcelona in the general election and is the leader of the new party created by the merger of Barcelona En Comú (the Colau party), ICV, EUiA (the IU branch) and Podemos.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 04:52:59 am by Velasco »Logged
Nanwe
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« Reply #1305 on: May 22, 2017, 05:34:43 am »

Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?

No idea. I think Carmena is on the moderate side of the party while Colau has her own party and stuff (Podemos' alliances can get really complicated really fast). As for PSOE stealing either, I don't see that as an option.

For Carmena I'm not even sure if she'll run for reelection as she is quite old already. She's 73, would be 75 in 2019 and 79 if she finished a second term. But if she does I doubt that she'll betray Ahora Madrid. Of the 2 she is the likelier to move to PSOE but that's still extremely unlikely as she's been in the far left her entire life (she was a candidate for MP for the Communist Party in 1977 for example)

Carmena has ruled out running again so many times lately that I can't count. Also, iirc, Carmena has a difficult relation with the Podemos members of her municipal team.


After yesterday's primaries, I think it's a great time to bring this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8b50DVamw
« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 05:36:20 am by Nanwe »Logged
Velasco
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« Reply #1306 on: May 22, 2017, 06:54:24 am »

Indeed, Manuela Carmena has no intent of running again. I think her relationship has been more difficult with the people of Ganemos Madrid (Guillermo Zapata, Celia Mayer). Her number two is Rita Maestre (Podemos, Errejón faction) and my impression is that they have a more fluent relationship, although not without differences. However, other councilors from Podemos prefer to go it alone without asking Carmena. Apparently the Podemos leadership is displeased with said councilors, as well gave instructions to the membership in order to close ranks with Carmena. They think that undermining the moderate Carmena damages their chances of being part of a government of Spain.

After yesterday's primaries, I think it's a great time to bring this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8b50DVamw

Poor Susana... Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Velasco
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« Reply #1307 on: May 22, 2017, 07:18:06 am »

El País: "Catalonia to immediately declare independence if no referendum held"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/05/22/inenglish/1495435474_319567.html
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1308 on: May 22, 2017, 11:25:40 am »

El País: "Catalonia to immediately declare independence if no referendum held"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/05/22/inenglish/1495435474_319567.html

They've gone nuts. If the leaked draft is true, they'd literally end separation of powers by directly appointing judges in the interim. And declaring independence if there's no referendum assumes that they have a mandate to do so - and they don't based on the votes of the previous autonomic election or polls lately.

It's an incredible leap into the unknown and I feel like a lot of noise is going to be coming from the PDECat's more autonomist wing about this nonsense.

Also, mapped the primaries.
Img

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DavidB.
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« Reply #1309 on: May 22, 2017, 04:29:55 pm »

That doesn't work, presumably because it's Imgur. Perhaps you could save it in your gallery on your Atlas profile, that always works.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1310 on: May 23, 2017, 05:46:12 am »

The motion of no confidence sponsored by Podemos will be discussed by the Congress of Deputies on June 13. Pablo Iglesias would be the alternative candidate for Prime Minister. However, after the results of the PSOE leadership contest were known, Pablo Iglesias offered Pedro Sánchez to withdraw if the reelected socialist leader submits another motion by himself.

The victory of Pedro Sánchez puts an end to the PP-PSOE policy of "national consensus", says Enric Juliana in La Vanguardia

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170523/422819390453/fase-de-ignicion.html

According to El País, the draft of the Catalan government would allow press control during the referendum

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/05/23/inenglish/1495524055_616252.html

Quote
The independence referendum that the Catalan government wants to hold in late September lacks even the minimum legal guarantees that its sponsors have been promising to uphold. The draft Juridical Transience Law, which EL PAIS has seen, contains significant gaps in the way Catalans would vote on whether to secede from Spain (...)

In related news, Carles Puigdemont was in the Madrid City Hall

Quote
Over 260 people on Monday attended a talk by Catalan Premier Carles Puigdemont on the subject of the independence referendum. The event, held inside Madrid City Hall, made headlines last Friday after the Deputy Prime Minister of Spain publicly asked Puigdemont to cancel the date and come instead to Spanish Congress – the “right place” to discuss sovereignty issues.

There were no representatives of either the ruling Popular Party (PP), the main opposition Socialist Party (PSOE) or the reform party Ciudadanos among the attendees. The only member of one of Spain’s four main political groups to show his face was Pablo Iglesias, head of the anti-austerity party Podemos.

Puigdemont evoked history in his address, calling for the same “sense of State” that allowed Catalan leader-in-exile Josep Tarradellas to return to Spain in 1977, after Franco’s death, and restore a Catalan government before there was even a Constitution or a Catalan charter of rights.

Ultimately, he warned that the referendum he is planning will be held, either through “a negotiated referendum” or one that is “backed internationally” if no support is found in Spain.

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tack50
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« Reply #1311 on: May 23, 2017, 06:06:02 am »

That doesn't work, presumably because it's Imgur. Perhaps you could save it in your gallery on your Atlas profile, that always works.

Ok, let's try this map from El Confidencial then

Img

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Velasco
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« Reply #1312 on: May 26, 2017, 10:22:33 am »

The 2015 local elections reshaped the political landscape of Spain. Madrid, Barcelona and other important cities through the country were conquered by anti-establishment candidacies, which in many cases were the amalgamation of civic and social movements with left-wing parties and were sponsored by Podemos. These local "governments of change" are like the jewels of the crown for the purple party, the main showcase of another possible country. Íñigo Errejón says: "we have the challenge to defend our mayoralties like a treasure, an indispensable conquest on the road ahead".

What the rights and wrongs of the "Mayors of Change" have been? This article series in El País tries to enlighten us.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/05/25/actualidad/1495735424_054038.html

Among the common elements of these local governments, they are mentioned:

- Promotion of citizen participation in decision making
- Focus on social policies and mobility
- Several mayors have reduced the debt, despite omens saying that public spending would increase exponentially

Among the problems they have in common, the article mentions lack of experience and improvisation. Opposition parties complain about sectarianism. In some cases, there is internal division in the governing teams.

Madrid: learning to manage from the scratch

Retired judge Manuela Carmena (aged 73) leads a heterogenous governing team (Ahora Madrid incorporates Podemos, IU, Equo, Ganemos and independents). Top priorities were the "regeneration" of politics, bringing administration closer to the citizens and ensuring economic solvency (PP local administrations left an astronomic debt, especially under Ruíz Gallardón).

The lack of harmony in the fragmented governing team, as well the lack of experience, were reflected in a number of controversies and mistakes. Several councilors acted in their own without asking Carmena. Decision making difficulties on cleaning service, waste management and security. Mistakes on cultural management that forced Carmena to personally take on responsibility.

The low implementation of investments has raised debt repayment. According to the article, in the last months the local government has shown greater efficiency in areas like culture and urban planning. Carmena and her closer associates have taken the control of key projects. Advances in the fight against pollution and citizen participation. The article concludes saying that after a beginning marked by improvisation, the members of the governing team are accomplishing to learn how to manage a big city.

Barcelona: Turn in agenda, big long term plans and lack of realization

The governing team lead by Ada Colau vindicates a change in the agenda of Barcelona and in the investment priorities, with a focus in the fight against inequality and in the housing policy. Barcelona en Comú (11 out of 41 councilors) governs in minority with the PSC (4 councilors) as junior partner, so the governing team is forced to a permanent negotiation with the other parties in the city hall. Two years after the unexpected victoty of the Ada Colau list, Colau's lieutenant Gerardo Pisarello and acting mayor (Colau is on maternity leave) states that they are "quite satisfied" with what has been achieved. There are many projects on the table ("when you make 5 big things they are more visible than 50 middle-sized things" says municipality manager Jordi Martí, a former socialist) and many of them are ambitious long term projects, so there is little realization. The governing team claims that 45% of the term's routemap has been implemented. There is citizen unrest on two issues: housing (evictions continue and rents are high) and overcrowding caused by mass tourism. The fragmented oppsoition is made of incompatible parties (PP, C's, PDECat; ERC and CUP), so they can't present a united front to oust Colau.

Valencia: social policies and change in mobility

Mayor Joan Ribó leads a governing team that incorporates Compromís, PSOE and Valencia en Comú (Podemos and independents). There has been a radical change in policies after 25 years of PP hegemony. Once the Ribó team took office evictions stopped immediately, social benefits to alleviate energy poverty increased ,  certain bullfighting shows were banned and it was promoted a new mobility policy (pedestrianization and 30 km/hr speed limit in downtown). Another major change with regards to the years of Rita Barberá (PP) is the recovery of the historical memory of republican Valencia (the city was the provisional capital between November 1936 and October 1937, during the Civil War), as well the governing team has changed the name of some streets because they had Francoist reminiscences. There is an aim to "separate Church things from State things" and to normalize the use of Valencian (the regional variety of Catalan language). There have been internal differences between Compromís, PSOE and Podemos. The opposition (PP and C's) complains about the "sectarianism" of the governing team.

Other "mayoralties of change" featuring in this articles series: Zaragoza, A Coruña, Santiago and Cádiz.

(Crossposting from the AAD)
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tack50
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« Reply #1313 on: May 28, 2017, 07:47:50 am »

El País poll about Catalonia and the situation there:

Img


Notable questions:

¿Has the PP government handled the Catalonia situation correctly?
(yes-no)
Catalonia: 4-96
Rest of Spain: 19-77

Interestingly even PP voters say it isn't handled correctly

The best way to solve the Catalonian issue is for a legal referendum approved by Catalonia and the central government to happen

Catalonia: 71-26
Rest of Spain: 38-62

Interestingly PSOE is split in the matter, with Catalan PSOE voters favouring a referendum 61-36, but all others opposing it by 44-56.

Do you think Catalonia's independence will be possible in the near future?

Catalonia: 34-62
Rest of Spain: 12-85


The government of Catalonia should:

Keep going with the independence process: (Catalonia 31%; Rest of Spain 11%)
Adopt a negotiationg strategy: (Catalonia 60%; Rest of Spain 79%)
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 07:50:28 am by tack50 »Logged
Velasco
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« Reply #1314 on: May 28, 2017, 05:56:34 pm »

Poll for the Barcelona City Hall.

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/barcelona/encuesta-periodico-colau-ganaria-otra-vez-las-municipales-con-erc-como-principal-partido-oposicion-6064862?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cm

Ada Colau's party would win again local elections in Barcelona, ERC  would be the second force in the City Hall at the expense of the PDECat (formerly CDC, CiU).

Img
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tack50
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« Reply #1315 on: May 29, 2017, 07:40:24 am »

Ok, it's official now; Rajoy will manage to pass the 2017 budget, he signed a deal with NC today. That also means that he probably won't call early elections at least until 2019 (probably at the same time as the European or the regional elections), recycling 2017's budget for 2018 if necessary.

The votes will go as follows:
Yes (176)Sad PP (137)+ Cs (32)+ PNV (5) + CC (1) + NC (1)

PP's total includes the MPs from UPN in Navarra and Foro in Asturias.

No (174): PSOE (84) + UP (67) + PDECat (8 ) + ERC (9) + Bildu (2) + Compromis (4)

UP's total includes the MPs from IU.

Interestingly, Pedro Quevedo (NC's only MP) has said he will support Pedro Sánchez in a no confidence vote against Rajoy (thus keeping the promise he made to PSOE), but that in the mean time if he can get stuff for the Canary Islands he will do that even if it means allying with PP.

Then again even with NC, Podemos and the Catalan parties a no confidence vote would still need either CC and Bildu (unlikely, CC does not like Podemos and they need PP to stay alive in the Canary Islands' government), PNV (slightly better but still not likely as they are reaching very good deals with PP) or Cs (with Cs the Catalan parties wouldn't even be needed, but if PSOE+Cs+Podemos didn't work in 2016, it won't work now)
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 07:42:00 am by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #1316 on: May 29, 2017, 07:43:56 am »

Poll for the Barcelona City Hall.

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/barcelona/encuesta-periodico-colau-ganaria-otra-vez-las-municipales-con-erc-como-principal-partido-oposicion-6064862?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cm

Ada Colau's party would win again local elections in Barcelona, ERC  would be the second force in the City Hall at the expense of the PDECat (formerly CDC, CiU).

Img


So, according to that poll there are 2 possibilities:

Far left ¿pro independence (idk how you could be pro independence in a town hall, but whatever)? En Comu+ERC+CUP government

Mainstream left, not as pro independence En Comú+ERC+PSC government

Also, En Comú+ERC is very close to a majority. If they 2 alone get one, the government will almost certainly be En Comú+ERC

In any case though, it seems Colau will stay as mayor for another 4 years.
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« Reply #1317 on: May 29, 2017, 07:24:58 pm »

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:

Img


249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 09:26:02 pm by Mike88 »Logged
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« Reply #1318 on: May 29, 2017, 11:02:56 pm »

What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?
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tack50
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« Reply #1319 on: May 30, 2017, 07:47:55 am »

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:

Img


249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.

Interesting to see that while under Spain's current system Podemos beating PSOE in seats but not in votes was a very real possibility even if it didn't happen in the end. However with the UK's system the reverse would happen! PSOE wins the popular vote but gets less seats than UP!

According to the website that happens because PSOE gets very close in many places (La Gomera, industrial areas in Barcelona) but still loses to PP while Podemos has its voters distributed more effectively, concentrated in certain areas (Basque Country, urban Catalonia and some areas of Madrid).

Also, not all seats have the same population since the current system is already not fuly proportional (rural areas have more seats than they should). The Canary Islands for example are terribly malapportioned, with the seats in the minor islands having a lot less people in them than those in the major islands. For example El Hierro and La Palma both have one seat, even though La Palma has more than 8 times el Hierro's population.

Another example is Las Palmas city seat, which would have 350 000 people in it! (35 times more than El Hierro)

A more proportional map there would look like this (requires splitting Las Palmas and Santa Cruz-La Laguna into several seats or multi member districts though)

Img


It does not change the result (PP still sweeps all 15 seats) though. In 2015 though PSOE would have very narrowly won Tenerife South West and Podemos would have won Fuerteventura's seat, as well as some in Las Palmas (they would have won all 3 if it was winner takes all)

Still a great map though.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2017, 08:03:24 am by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #1320 on: May 30, 2017, 09:52:13 am »

What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?
I believe these results come from the big coastal cities like Málaga or Cadiz plus the tourism resort cities of Marbella, Torremolinos and Isla Cristina. Curiously a similar pattern is also seen in Algarve.
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« Reply #1321 on: May 30, 2017, 12:07:29 pm »

What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?
I believe these results come from the big coastal cities like Málaga or Cadiz plus the tourism resort cities of Marbella, Torremolinos and Isla Cristina. Curiously a similar pattern is also seen in Algarve.

As a general rule, in Andalusia PP performs better in the bigger municipalities (especially in provincial capitals) and in the coast. The Andalusian countryside leans to the left for historical reasons, related with a land tenure system characterised by the existence of large estates and the proletarianization of the workforce, deprived of access to the land. The countryside votes mostly for the PSOE, with some scattered IU strongholds. I think there is an equivalency with certain regions of Portugal where communists are traditionally strong (Beja and Évora districts in Alentejo).

Málaga and the tourist resort cities in Costa del Sol (Marbella, Estepona, Fuengirola) lean PP. In the coastal municipalities of Almería crops grown in greenhouses (mostly fruit and vegetables) are the main economic activity. These places in Almería are PP strongholds.

http://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2010/12/02/almerias-greenhouses-what-goes-on-inside/   

In the rest of provinces you can find resort towns or municipalities or specialised crops (strawberries in Huelva). As for the city of Cádiz, PP came first in 2015 and 2016 but Podemos governs the municipality and came a strong second.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1322 on: May 30, 2017, 02:24:53 pm »

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:

Img


249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.

With ERC winning inland Catalonia, and Unidos Podemos winning what I assume is Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida, would it be safe to presume that there is higher support for independence in rural Catalonia than in the cities? why would this be?
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tack50
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« Reply #1323 on: May 30, 2017, 06:36:31 pm »

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:

Img


249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.

With ERC winning inland Catalonia, and Unidos Podemos winning what I assume is Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida, would it be safe to presume that there is higher support for independence in rural Catalonia than in the cities? why would this be?

Yeah, that's safe to presume. In fact if you go back (2011 and earlier), CiU performed better in rural areas while PSOE won mostly just Barcelona and its suburbs. They have each been replaced as the leading party in each area by ERC and Podemos respectively, but the divide is still there.

If you look at the association of municipalities for independence, most are in rural areas, with the more urban coast not being part of it.

Img


Similarly if you look at the results of the 2015 regional election, the pro-independence parties win in most places, but they lose Barcelones (Barcelona), Baix Llobregat, Valles occidental (both Barcelona suburbs), Tarragones (Tarragona), Baix Penedés (idk why), and the Aran Valley (surprisingly one of the most anti independence areas, one where Occitan/Aranese is co-official with Catalan and Spanish)

Img


As for why, I guess it's because Barcelona (and to a lesser extent Tarragona) are more "cosmopolitan", have a higher population of Spanish "inmigrants" while rural areas have a higher population of Catalan speakers.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2017, 06:40:54 pm by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #1324 on: May 31, 2017, 07:29:15 am »

Here's another "Spain's election except with the British electoral system" map, this one for 2015

Img


PP 206
Podemos 75
PSOE 44
CDC 12 (less votes than ERC)
PNV 8
ERC 5

They also made a map for 2011

Img


PP 258
PSOE 46
CiU 33
PNV 8
Amaiur 5

And for 2008

Img


PSOE 182
PP 161
PNV 3
CiU 3
CC 1

Interestingly, this one isn't that far off from the actual 2008 results (which shows that the more the 2 main parties get, the more faithful it is, and also how dominant PP+PSOE were back then)

http://simulaciones.es/blog/sistema-electoral-britanico/

http://archive.is/fH1AS
« Last Edit: November 01, 2017, 06:04:38 pm by tack50 »Logged
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