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tack50
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« Reply #1375 on: September 04, 2017, 11:13:47 am »

Leader of Cs, Albert Rivera has presented his party's proposal for term limits. PP has already anounced that they will vote against it so they are looking forward to passing it with PSOE and Podemos support.

There are doubts about its constitutionality though. Cs argues that it can be passed as a standard law, just by reforming the Government Law, but PP thinks that a constitutional reform is needed.

In any case, if Rajoy called for a snap election in 2019 or before he would not be affected by it. Also interestingly if Rajoy stepped down and someone else became PM for 4 years Rajoy would be eligible again after those 4 years. So it's not an absolute term limit.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/09/04/59ad4898468aeb3b7d8b469d.html
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1376 on: September 05, 2017, 05:59:07 am »

Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"
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"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"
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source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.
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tack50
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« Reply #1377 on: September 06, 2017, 09:31:29 am »

Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"
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"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"
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source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.

Well, that same poll predicts 50% turnout, which wouldn't be that low. The last European election in Catalonia for example had 48% turnout. The last town hall election had 59% turnout. So 50% turnout would actually be higher than a european election! And not that low compared to a town hall one!

However the last general election had 66% turnout and the last regional one had 75% turnout so it would still be considered very low.

Also on european elections it's just that people don't care, all parties see their voters turn out less in more or less the same proportion. Meanwhile here you'd have an organized boycott by unionists which would make the results worthless.

Then again this is all assuming the referendum happens, which is not guaranteed. Rajoy has promised that there won't be any referendum, not even one like the 2014 one. Not sure how things will go in the end though. Unless "no" miraculously wins in the referendum or Puigdemont chickens out and dissolves the regional assembly soon, Catalonia's autonomy will be eventually suspended. We are heading towards a train crash. It's probably a matter of when, not if.


Anyways, today the pro-independence side had planned to pass their referendum law. The debate has been a complete sh**tshow and the regional assembly's rules have been bent quite a bit. Of course the unionist side has been opposed to all of this.

There have been several reactions. PM Rajoy has asked the Constitutional Court to basically declare void anything passed by the Catalan parliament today. Also the Catalan fiscal has said they will prosecute those members of the Catalan parliament's table (the ones who set the schedule for the day) who passed the measure to include the referendum law in the schedule of the day.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1378 on: September 06, 2017, 11:25:06 am »

Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"
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"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"
Image Link

source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.

Well, that same poll predicts 50% turnout, which wouldn't be that low. The last European election in Catalonia for example had 48% turnout. The last town hall election had 59% turnout. So 50% turnout would actually be higher than a european election! And not that low compared to a town hall one!

However the last general election had 66% turnout and the last regional one had 75% turnout so it would still be considered very low.

Also on european elections it's just that people don't care, all parties see their voters turn out less in more or less the same proportion. Meanwhile here you'd have an organized boycott by unionists which would make the results worthless.

Well that is what surprised me about the expected turnout too. The "No" voters still engaged in the last regional election even though it was presented as the Nationalist list vs the Unionist parties, and Ciudadanos seemed to be the main benefactors of this. Plus previous polls for this referendum had turnout at much higher levels

I understand the idea of de-legitimising the referendum but what causes the No voters to suddenly change strategy and boycott, considering some poll showed them winning?



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The question is who the train crash will benefit the most? Mariano Rajoy or Carles Puigdemont? Both really Cheesy .


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What about Podem/CSQEP/whatever. Did they abstain?
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tack50
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« Reply #1379 on: September 06, 2017, 01:57:42 pm »
« Edited: September 06, 2017, 03:06:03 pm by tack50 »

Well, I guess most unionists don't want to legitimize the referendum. But it's worth noting that turnout is higher than in the 2014 one precisely because of some unionists going out to vote (mostly from Podemos). 2014 saw 90% yes but 35% turnout. Because of higher unionist turnout that 90% yes will go down to 70%.

However I don't think unionists want to risk it unless the referendum is 100% legal. And while overall polls do show unionists often winning it's usually close, if a true 100% legal referendum happened I could see another surprise like Brexit or Trump happening.

Keep in mind that if you take Podemos out unionists lose the 2015 election. PP+PSC+Cs get 39.1%, JxSí+CUP get 47.8%.

As for who will benefit, I don't think Puigdemont will benefit. On the Catalan side the real beneficiary will actually be ERC leader Oriol Junqueras. ERC is expected to win any regional election in a landslide while PDECat is expected to fall. PP, PSC and Cs are probably going to fall, most Catalans are against their autonomy being taken away. Podemos might rise and in fact it's already rising.

On the Spanish side, Rajoy might win some support but I'm not totally convinced, Rivera is also a very staunch unionist.

Sánchez is almost completely against it but he has made some blunders reciently about his federal state, saying: "All nations are in Spain", then saying only Galicia, Catalonia, Basque Country and Spain are nations, his endorsed candidate in Madrid saying that Madrid is a nation and with many regional leaders still opposed to him, his ideas and his leadership. On the other hand his proposal for a commision to reform the autonomies and solve the Catalan issue has been accepted by all parties, from PP to Podemos. Only ERC has said they won't participate.

Iglesias is the only one in favour of the referendum.

My guess is that Podemos and PSOE go down and Cs and PP go up again.

Finally, as for how the votes went, keep in mind that there's a final vote about the referendum that hasn't still happened. The other 2 were to bend the rules to allow the debate of the law to happen.

The first passed 72 in favour, 60 against, 3 abstaining

On the second almost all unionists refused to vote in protest to the chaos that was the voting. It passed 69 in favour, 3 against and 0 abstaining.

So it seems that Podemos split, with 3 MPs abstaining and the other 8 voting against alongside PP, Cs and PSC.

Also, the European People's Party group in the EU parliament has backed PP. Not exactly unexpected but whatever. I will say that this is where Unió's MEPs used to sit though. https://twitter.com/EPP/status/905489350372282368

And in my opinion if ALDE (where PDECat's MEPs sit) backs the unionists as well it's over. They won't get any EU support. Not like the EU was ever expected to side with Catalonia but still.
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tack50
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« Reply #1380 on: September 06, 2017, 03:11:07 pm »

2 final news for the day:

First of all, the referendum law has been passed. PP, Cs and PSC's MPs refused to vote and just left the chamber (PP's MPs also left Spanish and Catalan flags behind).

The official tally was:

Yes: 72 (JxSí, CUP)
No: 0
Abstaining 11 (Podemos)

Also, and this was kind of unexpected to me, Catalan opposition leader Ines Arrimadas (Cs) has said that she will present a no confidence vote against governor Puigdemont. Not like it has a chance of passing but still. It would need either CUP support (lol) or at least 5 JxSí defectors (almost certainly from PDECat).

She says her objective is to force new regional elections.

http://www.antena3.com/noticias/espana/arrimadas-anuncia-mocion-censura-puigdemont_2017090659b04f8f0cf27a5b1bd80efd.html
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1381 on: September 06, 2017, 04:12:08 pm »

Thanks for the extensive answer. About the EU support for Catalan independence, I got a feeling from the EU bureaucrats in the Committee of Regions (excluding some of the Spanish ones) that Romeva had lobbied hard enough to ensure that while Catalonia would have to re-apply should it ever gain independence (and therefore be blocked by Spain, and to a lesser extent France), the actual Catalan citizens would retain their European citizen rights and still legally be considered Spanish. Its a complicated issue but then that's why you need a comprehensive agreement in place first to vote on...

Also, bit strange that C's and the PDEC sit in the same group in the EP...Our Christian Democrats still won't accept N-VA in the EPP despite having a decent working relationship. 
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tack50
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« Reply #1382 on: September 09, 2017, 09:04:00 am »

In a shocking /s turn of events, the Constitutional Court has struck down the Catalan referendum. Also reminded mayors that they should not take part in it.

The Catalan government sent a letter asking all of Catalonia's mayors (all 946 of them) to say if they'll lend municipal spaces for the referendum.

Thus far more than 2/3 of all mayors (628) have said they'll support the referendum and lend municipal spaces while only 12 have spoken against it. However those 12 mayors are mayors of large municipalities while the ones who pledge support are mostly from small towns, with a few exceptions.

So in terms of population the unionists are actually winning, with 44% of mayors by population rejecting the referendum and 41.6% in favour. 290 mayors comprising the reminder of Catalonia's poulation have not answered.

The 12 town halls that said no include: Tarragona city, Lleida city, Barcelona city (though mayor Colau was somewhat ambiguous but most include her on the "no" side), L'Hospitalet and Cornellá.

On the yes side the most relevant ones seem to be Girona city and Badalona.
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tack50
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« Reply #1383 on: September 10, 2017, 01:00:45 pm »

It's been a while since I last posted a poll, so here are 2 new national ones and 2 regional ones (one for Catalonia, another for the Canary Islands):

ABC-GAD3 poll

PP: 31.9% (131)
PSOE: 23.9% (94)
UP: 18.4% (57)
Cs: 15.8% (41)

ERC: 14
PDECat: 4
PNV: 6
Bildu: 2
CC: 1

Approval ratings (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 3.8
Pedro Sánchez: 3.8
Pablo Iglesias: 3.3
Albert Rivera: 4.3

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-encuesta-gad3-para-abc-bloque-pp-y-ciudadanos-aumenta-21-escanos-ventaja-sobre-psoe-y-podemos-201709100257_noticia.html

El Mundo-Sigma Dos

PP: 30.8%
PSOE: 26.4%
UP: 19.5%
Cs: 12.7%

ERC: 2.3%
PNV: 1.2%
PDECat: 1.3%

El Espańol-Sociométrica, Catalonia's parliament (135 seats, 68 for a majority)

Image Link

Hamalgama and Ágora Integral poll for La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife, Canary Islands parliament (60 seats, 31 for a majority)

PSOE: 23.8% (18/19)
CC: 17.3% (15/16)
PP: 20.2% (11)
Podemos: 14.2% (6)
NC: 9.8% (4)
ASG: 0.6% (3)
Cs: 7.0% (2)

Yes, CC is 3rd in the popular vote but 2nd in terms of seats.

http://www.laopinion.es/canarias/2017/09/10/psoe-dispara-islas-suma-pacto/807517.html
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1384 on: September 20, 2017, 09:08:44 am »

Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.
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tack50
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« Reply #1385 on: September 20, 2017, 09:49:16 am »

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.
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« Reply #1386 on: September 20, 2017, 10:09:08 am »

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.
From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1387 on: September 20, 2017, 10:20:09 am »

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.
From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.

It seems to me like the ultimate No True Scotsman dilemma - on both sides. You say the polls are showing the  nationalists down but their score combined with CUP is stable and as tack50 said the main loser in PDECat to ERC. If Junqueres backs down now he will see support fade away to the CUP as the last resort of the seperatist. And that's something not many in the Catalan political and economic upper to middle classes want.

Meanwhile in Madrid it's also a question of who is willing to do the most to keep Spain together. Sanchez and Iglesias will be marginalised or smeared in all this.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1388 on: September 20, 2017, 04:03:02 pm »

Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.

Not quite. The arrests and registers carried out today are unrelated to the referendum, and instead have to do with a corruption case dating back to January involving Santi Vila. Indeed, they were ordered by a judge independently of the government (the govt. can pressure fiscales, but hardly the judges)

The ballots is another story, of course.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1389 on: September 20, 2017, 04:04:48 pm »

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.
From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.

I think, cynically, because it will play to the victimism of the Catalan völkisch cause and lend them further support as "underdogs" in the upcoming regional elections. Also I feel like the acceleration of events has to do with the bad showing in the polls recently. Indeed, just today a poll was released showing that ERC+PDECAT+CUP lacked a majority.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1390 on: September 21, 2017, 02:40:08 am »

Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.

Not quite. The arrests and registers carried out today are unrelated to the referendum, and instead have to do with a corruption case dating back to January involving Santi Vila. Indeed, they were ordered by a judge independently of the government (the govt. can pressure fiscales, but hardly the judges)

The ballots is another story, of course.

Can you provide a source about the nature of the arrests, because Vanguardia initially said it was about using public funds to fund an illegal referendum, hence the ballot burning. Here's one from El Pais saying the same :

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/09/20/catalunya/1505885372_273143.html

Also, why was the Guardía Civil involved and not the Mossos?  Are fiscal matters not a competence of theirs?  I thought the GC was only involved in border control in Catalunya.

Genuine questions not meant in harm.
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mgop
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« Reply #1391 on: September 22, 2017, 06:07:53 am »

who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1392 on: September 22, 2017, 07:09:34 am »
« Edited: September 22, 2017, 10:03:53 am by coloniac »

who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...

You are right in some respects regarding the hypocrisy of self-determination.
The logic of most of the "Western" recognitions you mention was that the incumbent was using excessive and disproportionate repression against those nations, which usually meant a UN-led mission that first required independence of the substate actor.

The Spanish state argues that Catalonia already has self-determination. And Spain does not recognise Kosovo either. So I'm not sure that line of argumentation gets you anywhere with the Spanish state.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1393 on: September 22, 2017, 07:57:09 am »

who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...

Why is this is specifically a western hypocrisy? Morocco recognises the state of Palestine, but mentione Western Sahara...

Beyond that, Coloniac is pretty much spot on - and there is always the fact that, every country has its own interests, and ideological biases, in those sorts of questions.
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tack50
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« Reply #1394 on: September 26, 2017, 03:28:49 pm »
« Edited: September 26, 2017, 03:33:18 pm by tack50 »

The Spanish government has delayed the 2018 budget. That means they won't be able to pass it on time, instead having to pass it late like they did for last year. The government expects to pass it some time in January.

The reason? They have been unable to reach an agreement with the Basque PNV. The reason is probably Catalonia at least partially, PNV has been a big defender of a referendum agreed between the Spanish and Catalan governments. They also threatened the government with exactly this last week. According to them because of the dire situation in Catalonia it's no time to begin budget negotiations.

I do think PNV will bulge after October though. I would expect budget negotiations to start in late October with the budget being passed late in January or December (the budget has to start being drafted at least 3 months before January 1st in order not to be a late budget I think).

An early election in 2018 is a possibility, particularly if Rajoy thinks PP will be benefited (a la May 2017). I think it's unlikely though, their 2016 result was probably as good as it can get under the current 4 party system.

http://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3145260/0/gobierno-prorroga-presupuestos-generales-2018/
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tack50
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« Reply #1395 on: October 01, 2017, 05:58:43 am »

D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.
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« Reply #1396 on: October 01, 2017, 06:25:59 am »

D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.

What more do they want Rajoy to do? They aren't actually advocating for killing people right?
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« Reply #1397 on: October 01, 2017, 06:32:51 am »

D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.
We can argue the police response. In my opinion, i would had left them vote but, honestly, i was expecting clashes with the police. What i was not expecting, was people using their kids as somekind of shield or something. That was really bad. But you're right, this is sh**show. Sad
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tack50
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« Reply #1398 on: October 01, 2017, 06:49:34 am »

D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.

What more do they want Rajoy to do? They aren't actually advocating for killing people right?

No, of course not. I think the people asking for a harsher response basically want Rajoy to openly activate article 155 and essencially dissolve Catalonia's autonomous government, and maybe send Puigdemont and his cabinet to prison while they are at it.
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mvd10
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« Reply #1399 on: October 01, 2017, 06:55:41 am »

Yeah, that makes more sense. Honestly, this is a total sh**show, I hope it will be over soon.
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