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  Spanish elections and politics
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 287866 times)
jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #1525 on: December 21, 2017, 02:01:54 pm »

Ciudadanos Seen Winning Most Seats in Catalan Ballot: 8tv Poll
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jaichind
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« Reply #1526 on: December 21, 2017, 02:02:18 pm »

Catalan Separatists Seen Winning Razor-Thin Majority: 8tv Poll
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tack50
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« Reply #1527 on: December 21, 2017, 02:05:28 pm »

Here's the poll, done by GAD3 for Grupo Godó (La Vanguardia, 8TV and probably a radio station)

Image Link

Worth noting that it is not a proper exit poll. Instead it's just a regular poll, but one that took interviews up until the last possible second. They apparently interviewed people until 1h ago.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1528 on: December 21, 2017, 02:05:48 pm »

8tv exit poll

CUP:      5-6
ERC:    34-36
JxC:     28-29
CeC:      7-8
PSC:    18-20
PP:        3-5
C's:     34-37
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jaichind
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« Reply #1529 on: December 21, 2017, 02:06:57 pm »

The iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF slipped lower just after polls closed. It's still convincingly higher on the day.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1530 on: December 21, 2017, 02:07:54 pm »

The secessionist bloc on at medium of 69 according to exit poll.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1531 on: December 21, 2017, 02:08:57 pm »
« Edited: December 21, 2017, 02:12:27 pm by Mike88 »

Here's the poll, done by GAD3 for Grupo Godó (La Vanguardia, 8TV and probably a radio station)

Image Link

Worth noting that it is not a proper exit poll. Instead it's just a regular poll, but one that took interviews up until the last possible second. They apparently interviewed people until 1h ago.

Share of vote:

26.0% C's
22.5% ERC
19.0% JxCat
15.0% PSC
  7.0% Comú
  5.0% CUP
  4.5% PP

46.5% Pró-Independence
45.5% Anti-Independence
  7.0% Comú
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jaichind
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« Reply #1532 on: December 21, 2017, 02:10:52 pm »

Looks like PP lost votes to C and CUP lost votes to ERC relative to pre-election polls.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1533 on: December 21, 2017, 02:16:20 pm »

GAD3 seem to hedging their bets a bit with these projections. Bottom end of the range for the separatists give them 67 seats - one short of a majority. Top end is 71.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1534 on: December 21, 2017, 02:52:42 pm »

It seems the GAD3 polls is an election day telephone poll and not an exit poll.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1535 on: December 21, 2017, 03:01:36 pm »

It seems the GAD3 polls is an election day telephone poll and not an exit poll.

The last Electipn Day poll I remember claiming to be an exit due to the lack of exits was YouGov's 51-49 remain poll...
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tack50
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« Reply #1536 on: December 21, 2017, 03:06:28 pm »

2.25% of the vote is in
Turnout thus far: 81.83%

JxCat 31.40% (43)
ERC 23.16% (33)
Cs: 18.78% (27)
PSC: 10.63% (16)
CUP:  5.57% (7)
ECP: 5.33% (6)
PP: 3.79% (3)
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Mike88
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« Reply #1537 on: December 21, 2017, 03:19:23 pm »

I know it's still early, Barcelona is only 4% in, but i think JxCat may be doing better than expected. We'll see.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1538 on: December 21, 2017, 03:26:22 pm »

Cs is very strong. Oranges will win, apparently. It's up to see if there's pro-independence majority.
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tack50
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« Reply #1539 on: December 21, 2017, 03:30:03 pm »

Yeah, I agree that JxCat seems like it will have a good night. I wouldn't be surprised if they were the number 1 secessionist force. Also PP seems like it will be completely decimated. They won't drop out of parliament but they'll be lucky if they get 4 seats. They might not even have their own parliamentary group!

11.74% of the vote is now in:

Cs: 24.32% (35)
JxCat: 23.53% (35)
ERC: 21.50% (31)
PSC: 13.75% (18)
ECP: 6.68% (8 )
CUP: 4.51% (5)
PP: 4.17% (3)

Secessionists 71 seats (-1 compared to 2015). Majority of 3
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Velasco
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« Reply #1540 on: December 21, 2017, 03:33:42 pm »

Everything points to a big Arrimadas win.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1541 on: December 21, 2017, 03:35:53 pm »

Important to note that Barcelona appears to be 7% behind every other state.

Hell, clicking on the city gives me 4% vote counted.
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tack50
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« Reply #1542 on: December 21, 2017, 03:41:26 pm »

Yup, there's barely any vote from Barcelona proper. Keep in mind that the best unionist stronghold isn't the city itself but the suburbs, the "red belt" as it's known (former PSC voting areas). Barcelona city isn't that unionist. They voted 47.2% for secessionists in 2015, compared to 47.8% in all of Catalonia.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #1543 on: December 21, 2017, 03:44:15 pm »

Can someone post a link to the results?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1544 on: December 21, 2017, 03:44:51 pm »

Yup, there's barely any vote from Barcelona proper. Keep in mind that the best unionist stronghold isn't the city itself but the suburbs, the "red belt" as it's known (former PSC voting areas). Barcelona city isn't that unionist. They voted 47.2% for secessionists in 2015, compared to 47.8% in all of Catalonia.

Oh yeah, I doubt any unionist bombs are going to be dropping throughout the count - its just that the current count probably is overstating separatist support due to the majority of the count curently coming from rurals.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1545 on: December 21, 2017, 03:45:45 pm »

Tarragonia just flipping to C's BTW.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #1546 on: December 21, 2017, 03:45:58 pm »


Thank you.
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tack50
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« Reply #1547 on: December 21, 2017, 03:54:41 pm »

35% of the vote is in

JxCat: 22.56% (35)
Cs: 25.03% (34)
ERC: 21.55% (32)
PSC: 13.81% (18)
CatComú: 6.97% (8 )
CUP: 4.37% (5)
PP: 4.15% (3)

Most commenters are saying that secessionists will keep their majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1548 on: December 21, 2017, 03:55:25 pm »

Looking pretty good for the secessionists
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jaichind
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« Reply #1549 on: December 21, 2017, 04:01:10 pm »

The fall of PP to below the seat thresholds in different regions indirectly helps the bigger parties of which 2 of the 3 are  secessionists.  If the entire  Catalonia was one large PR region that would work to help the secessionists less.
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