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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 240039 times)
Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1600 on: December 27, 2017, 03:01:15 pm »

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1601 on: December 27, 2017, 07:38:09 pm »

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

Yeah, this is more or less correct. Polling hypotheticals (which is more or less what is going on with regards to a hypothetical "Tabarnia") may be interesting for political junkies such as ourselves - but as long as the option remains purely hypotheical, any speculation is precisely that, speculation and nothing more...
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coloniac
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« Reply #1602 on: December 27, 2017, 08:00:39 pm »

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

Yeah, this is more or less correct. Polling hypotheticals (which is more or less what is going on with regards to a hypothetical "Tabarnia") may be interesting for political junkies such as ourselves - but as long as the option remains purely hypotheical, any speculation is precisely that, speculation and nothing more...

Tabernia is not a serious political project, its a demonstration* that some political entrepreneurs believe in one set of legal and moral norms for a specific nation or identity tied to a nation, and another set for another people with a distinct identity of their own.

See also : The Brussels Periphery.


*by a group with links to Societat Civil Catalana, but thats another matter.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2017, 08:10:04 pm by coloniac »Logged
Velasco
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« Reply #1603 on: December 28, 2017, 02:33:43 pm »

"Tabarnia" is only a joke, a wisecrack that went viral after the December 21 elections. It's basically anti-independence people wanting to put a mirror in front of pro-independence people, in order to highlight how absurd are the separatist claims (in the view of those 'unionists', of course).

"Barcelona is not Catalonia" = "Catalonia is not Spain"
 
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1604 on: December 28, 2017, 05:04:05 pm »

"Tabarnia" is only a joke, a wisecrack that went viral after the December 21 elections. It's basically anti-independence people wanting to put a mirror in front of pro-independence people, in order to highlight how absurd are the separatist claims (in the view of those 'unionists', of course).

"Barcelona is not Catalonia" = "Catalonia is not Spain"
 

Fair enough, but the point being that "Tabarnia" doesn't want independence/separation from Catalonia (and would be unhappy with that result) regardless of how it votes on Catalan independence, so it's a meaningless comparison devoid of substance.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1605 on: December 28, 2017, 05:41:23 pm »

Again: "Tabarnia" is a joke. In real life Barcelona and Tarragona don't want to leave Catalonia, but the point of this joke is that in a parallel universe there' s a separatist movement claiming that they are under the oppresion of rural Catalonia. They repeat point by point all the arguments of Catalan separatists (Spain is an oppresive state, steals our money, etcetera), but replacing "Spain" by "Catalonia". In the parallel universe in which Tabarnia is real, the comparison is meaningful.

(I can't believe this wisecrack needs an explanation)
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« Reply #1606 on: December 29, 2017, 07:56:48 am »

By the way, we have our first poll after the catalan election (technically done before it, between 7-14 of December, but whatever) and it predicts a 3 way tie!

Simple Lógica

PP 24.8%

PSOE 23.8%
Cs 22.8%
UP 16,3%
Others 12.3%

Approval ratings:



http://simplelogica.com/iop/iop17017_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Considering that this was done before the Catalan election, I wonder, if Cs will somehow replace PP as the main right wing force. I seriously doubt it but it's an interesting possibility.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 08:12:58 am by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #1607 on: December 29, 2017, 08:33:07 am »

Sad my boy Sanchez is hated by the people
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The Saint
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« Reply #1608 on: December 29, 2017, 01:14:38 pm »

Tack, do you think Cs will remain this strong going into the next election?
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« Reply #1609 on: December 29, 2017, 01:40:04 pm »

It's definitely way too early to tell. Remember that 1-2 months before the 2015 election Cs was also polling incredibly well and in the end they came in a distant 4th. Podemos was also polling extremely well in late 2014 and early 2015 (they even took the lead in several polls!) before falling hard.

Now, some of Cs drop can be attributed to a bad 2015 campaign on their part while Podemos ran a very good campaign. But still, things changed a lot in 2 months. The next election, is most likely 2 years or so ahead. Things can change a lot in that time.

If Cs plays their cards right, stops the "voting PP is the only useful vote" campaign and the like they might have a shot but it's hard. They generally poll well when the catalan separatist movement is the most important issue.


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The Saint
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« Reply #1610 on: December 29, 2017, 03:05:46 pm »

Ok thank you!
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jaichind
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« Reply #1611 on: January 02, 2018, 08:11:29 am »

La Razon reports poll



Which has (diff from 2016 election)

PP        30.0 (-3.0)
PSOE    23.8 (+1.2)
UP        16.1 (-5.1)
C         18.8 (+5.7)

C a bit lower than some of the other polls in Nov and Dec
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coloniac
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« Reply #1612 on: January 06, 2018, 08:34:08 am »

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

Just to revive this question, here is a poll showing ERC overtaking Colau in municipal elections.

https://twitter.com/bcn_ajuntament/status/948879979844112384/photo/1
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tack50
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« Reply #1613 on: January 06, 2018, 09:10:02 am »

Worth noting that that poll is just raw voting intention without any kind of adjustments. It's just the results of asking people who they'll vote for.

Though it's still bad news for Colau, who seems to be losing votes to the secessionist ERC. It's also very bad news for PP, which seems like they'll miss the 5% threshold and lose all representatives.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2018, 06:18:56 pm by tack50 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #1614 on: January 06, 2018, 05:57:23 pm »

SocioMétrica/El Español poll: (Projected seats in parentheses)

24.1% PP (97)
23.9% C's (86)
22.5% PSOE (89)
16.2% UP (49)
  3.5% ERC (13)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.7% Vox (1)
  1.1% PNV (6)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.5% CC (1)
  3.9% Others

75.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 22 and 29 December. Polled 1,000 voters.
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tack50
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« Reply #1615 on: January 06, 2018, 06:24:45 pm »

Wow, so Prime Minister Albert Rivera is actually a realistic possibility! Also, according to this poll, 3 coalitions would be possible:

PP+Cs
PP+PSOE
PSOE+Cs+CC

So anything would work really.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1616 on: January 06, 2018, 07:20:01 pm »

LET’S GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?
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Atlasia

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tack50
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« Reply #1617 on: January 06, 2018, 07:37:13 pm »

LET’S GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?

No, it's far from guaranteed in fact. This pollster is the only one that has seen them getting a seat though in their defense they are also the only ones polling VOX instead of just throwing them into "others".

In theory extrapolating from their 2014 EU parliament result they should be getting a seat with 1.5-1.6% of the vote nationally (they need 3% in Madrid). In 2014 with 1.6% they got 3.2% in Madrid. That would have given them 1 seat.

IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1618 on: January 06, 2018, 07:48:04 pm »


IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.

This is the first time I have heard anything about this, but with the way polling is going it could be favorable to the PP/C's coalition. I would assume Rajoy would love to shed the chaotic working agreement that has been in place since 2015/16. So - what are the chances of such a scenario? One would assume that the catalan issue would be the big topic - at least at the start, so PP/C's would have a favorable playing field.
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tack50
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« Reply #1619 on: January 06, 2018, 08:11:03 pm »

Well, an early election is a very real possibility. PNV doesn't really want to pass the 2018 budget (which is already late by the way, thankfully we don't get a government shutdown in that case XD) because of how PP has handled Catalonia.

I personally think PNV will pass the budget in the end but if they don't that would be a very good excuse to call an early election.

If there's an early election yes, PP/Cs will be very favoured.
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Lumine
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« Reply #1620 on: January 06, 2018, 08:17:06 pm »

Any chance of a vote of no confidence if Rajoy doesn't call a snap election? It doesn't seem Unidos Podemos and PSOE are in very good shape to face such an election.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1621 on: January 06, 2018, 08:42:10 pm »

LET’S GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?

No, it's far from guaranteed in fact. This pollster is the only one that has seen them getting a seat though in their defense they are also the only ones polling VOX instead of just throwing them into "others".

In theory extrapolating from their 2014 EU parliament result they should be getting a seat with 1.5-1.6% of the vote nationally (they need 3% in Madrid). In 2014 with 1.6% they got 3.2% in Madrid. That would have given them 1 seat.

IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.

I thought I saw an earlier poll on Wikipedia that also gave them a seat
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tack50
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« Reply #1622 on: January 06, 2018, 08:43:29 pm »

Yeah, but that one is from the same pollster (Sociométrica-El Español), just an older poll.
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tack50
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« Reply #1623 on: January 06, 2018, 08:47:15 pm »

Any chance of a vote of no confidence if Rajoy doesn't call a snap election? It doesn't seem Unidos Podemos and PSOE are in very good shape to face such an election.

I don't think so. There are only 2 possibilities for a successful no confidence vote:

PSOE somehow becomes open to a referendum or ERC and PDECat stop caring about independence a no confidence vote is impossible. The only viable majority would be:

PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV.

The only alternative would be for Cs to break with PP and accept a PSOE-Cs-Podemos government.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1624 on: January 06, 2018, 08:51:36 pm »

Yeah, but that one is from the same pollster (Sociométrica-El Español), just an older poll.

Ah, ok.
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Atlasia

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