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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 240178 times)
tack50
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« Reply #1625 on: January 09, 2018, 05:28:50 am »

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es poll

PP: 29.8% (123-128)
PSOE: 25.1% (92-96)
Cs: 18.6% (54-59)
Podemos: 16.9% (49-54)
Pacma: 1.2% (0)
Others: 1.6% (0)

ERC: 2.5% (9-10)
PDECat: 1.7% (6-7)
PNV: 1.2% (5-6)
EH Bildu: 0.9% (2-3)
CC: 0.3% (1)
BNG: 0.2% (0)

PP+Cs get a majority even in the lower end, PSOE+Cs and PSOE+Podemos short of one in all cases.
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tack50
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« Reply #1626 on: January 09, 2018, 05:22:29 pm »

Also, today fmr. regional president of Catalonia Artur Mas has resigned as party president of PDECat. Apparently his resignation has serveral reasons:

-Puidemont's presidential style campaign (centered on him, not the party) has been extremely successful and he doesn't want to get on the way of his expansion

-His campaign also included more defiance to the Spanish government while Mas apparently wanted moderation and doesn't think that independence can be declared with 47% of the vote. Now that Puigdemont has been successful with a radical campaign he can't try and make Puigdemont more moderate.

-The "Caso Palau" corruption case involving CDC under Mas is about to say whether they are innocent or guilty so Mas is resigning to avoid further damage.

Also, apparently PDECat will contest the 2019 local elections as Junts x Catalunya, the brand used by Puigdemont's campaign.

Finally, worry about Catalonia's independence has dropped by 12% over the last 2 months, after article 155 was activated. It is now the 5th largest worry at 16.9%, behind unemployment (66.8%), corruption (31.7%), politics and politicians (28.5%) and the economy (22.5%)
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tack50
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« Reply #1627 on: January 12, 2018, 07:22:00 am »

And Cs gest it's first polling lead in its history!

El País-Metroscopia



With those percentages, both Cs-PSOE and Cs-PP become viable choices. I wonder now if Cs will just stop supporting Rajoy, essencially forcing him to call a snap election.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2018, 07:24:54 am by tack50 »Logged
The Saint
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« Reply #1628 on: January 12, 2018, 07:24:18 am »

WOOHOOOOO!!!!!

Seriously though, barring a snap election (and maybe even then), their polling lead will probably shrink significantly by the next election.
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« Reply #1629 on: January 12, 2018, 12:41:46 pm »

This is amazing! Could a C's government actually happen?
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« Reply #1630 on: January 12, 2018, 01:10:10 pm »

Citizens lost votes in 2016 for agreeing with the PSOE, Albert should be an imbecile not to realize that his votes are former voters pp, his anti-Catalan discourse is in line with them and totally against what the Spanish left defends. I hope that in the future, citizens will turn more to the right.
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« Reply #1631 on: January 12, 2018, 05:12:04 pm »

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
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tack50
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« Reply #1632 on: January 12, 2018, 05:47:09 pm »

This is amazing! Could a C's government actually happen?

With those numbers? Sure.

The electoral system is actually slightly rigged against Cs since they have a mostly urban base and spread out base while the system benefits rural areas and parties with a concentrated base, but not rigged enough to throw away a 4 point win. With those numbers and with an even swing from 2015 they'd get 100 seats, compared to PSOE's 85 and PP's 97.

So the Cs-PP gap is only of 3 seats while for a 4 point win you'd historically expect more like a 15-17 seat gap (like 2008 or 1993)

Whether you think Cs can actually not just come close to PP/PSOE, but overtake them and win the popular vote by a significant margin is a whole other story though.
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tack50
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« Reply #1633 on: January 12, 2018, 05:51:45 pm »

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

How is Cs an "ethnic nationalist" party? They've adopted harsher rethoric against peripheral nationalisms but that's it. I don't think they are worse than say, the 00s PP, which collected signatures against the Catalan estatut.

Or the old UPyD, which actually did have in it's manifesto to take away some devolved powers (most notably healthcare and education) and give them back to the central government.

If it were VOX we were talking about (or God forbid, some of the tiny fascist parties like say, Falange, aka Franco's party) then sure. But Cs is just another liberal party with harsh rethoric against peripheral nationalism like UPyD.
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« Reply #1634 on: January 12, 2018, 07:52:57 pm »

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

How is Cs an "ethnic nationalist" party? They've adopted harsher rethoric against peripheral nationalisms but that's it. I don't think they are worse than say, the 00s PP, which collected signatures against the Catalan estatut.

Or the old UPyD, which actually did have in it's manifesto to take away some devolved powers (most notably healthcare and education) and give them back to the central government.

If it were VOX we were talking about (or God forbid, some of the tiny fascist parties like say, Falange, aka Franco's party) then sure. But Cs is just another liberal party with harsh rethoric against peripheral nationalism like UPyD.

Cs has embraced the flag to win votes and that's good, but inevitably they will turn right, you can not pretend to stay with conservative pp voters without being tougher than them.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1635 on: January 12, 2018, 08:33:35 pm »

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

How is Cs an "ethnic nationalist" party? They've adopted harsher rethoric against peripheral nationalisms but that's it. I don't think they are worse than say, the 00s PP, which collected signatures against the Catalan estatut.

Or the old UPyD, which actually did have in it's manifesto to take away some devolved powers (most notably healthcare and education) and give them back to the central government.

If it were VOX we were talking about (or God forbid, some of the tiny fascist parties like say, Falange, aka Franco's party) then sure. But Cs is just another liberal party with harsh rethoric against peripheral nationalism like UPyD.

Which is a wordy way of saying "castillan nationalism".
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« Reply #1636 on: January 13, 2018, 12:16:38 am »

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!
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« Reply #1637 on: January 13, 2018, 08:21:37 am »

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

Why would any country want to copy plutocratic En Marche, Jenkinsite?
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The Saint
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« Reply #1638 on: January 13, 2018, 08:24:16 am »

Cs is nothing close to an “ethnic nationalist” party. Was the Republican Party ethnic nationalist during the Civil War for opposing the South seceding? Of course not. Both areas had different ways of life, but in the end, they were, as Catalonia and all other regions are, united by a common nation.
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« Reply #1639 on: January 13, 2018, 10:09:56 am »

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

ROFLMAO

Cs is nothing close to an “ethnic nationalist” party.


On election night, Cs supporters meeting at the Hotel Catalonia couldn't contain their enthusiasm and shouted (intoxicated by victory): "¡Yo soy Español, Español, Español!"

Neither Spanish nationalism nor Catalan separatism can be termed as "ethnic", in my opinion.
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« Reply #1640 on: January 13, 2018, 10:29:51 am »

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

Susana Diaz? The southern barons of the PSOE really aren't the Centrists you crave...
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coloniac
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« Reply #1641 on: January 13, 2018, 03:07:15 pm »

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

En Marche can only exist in a (semi-)Presidentialist system where one candidate has the initials EM.
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« Reply #1642 on: January 14, 2018, 08:02:12 pm »

The trend continues...

GAD3/ABC poll: (projected seats in parentheses)

26.2% C's (86/90)
24.7% PP (97/101)
24.2% PSOE (93/97)
14.7% UP (42/44)
  2.9% ERC (10/11)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.3% PNV (7)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.3% CC (0/1)
  3.1% Others

71.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 January 2018.
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« Reply #1643 on: January 14, 2018, 09:01:32 pm »

The trend continues...

GAD3/ABC poll: (projected seats in parentheses)

26.2% C's (86/90)
24.7% PP (97/101)
24.2% PSOE (93/97)
14.7% UP (42/44)
  2.9% ERC (10/11)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.3% PNV (7)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.3% CC (0/1)
  3.1% Others

71.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 January 2018.

Well, thats a working majority for any coalition between the big two - now three I guess.

Now I really want to see this chaotic government fall, and get new elections...
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tack50
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« Reply #1644 on: January 14, 2018, 09:29:02 pm »

Interesting that Cs might win the popular vote but come in third in terms of seats!

Seems like UCD's "gerrymander" is still working. Interestingly Cs might be the closest to the old UCD, so it has backfired 40 years later!
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« Reply #1645 on: January 15, 2018, 03:54:07 am »

Interesting that Cs might win the popular vote but come in third in terms of seats!

Seems like UCD's "gerrymander" is still working. Interestingly Cs might be the closest to the old UCD, so it has backfired 40 years later!

Didn't C's say just after the result that they would only govern if electoral reform is on the table? I imagine this is what they will want implemented in the new constitutional reforms regardless, but if they end up with that result in that electoral system they will only have themselves to blame. Just as the LibDems have themselves to blame for the AV vote going to a referendum in UK.
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tack50
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« Reply #1646 on: January 15, 2018, 05:39:42 am »

Electoral reform is one of those things that everyone claims to be in favour but never happens in the end. Though Cs should press PP and tell them they'll vote against the budget if no reforms are passed.

The thing is that except for limited reforms (like say, bringing the number of MPs up to 400 and/or reducing the minimum amount of seats per province from 2 to 1), you need to reform the constitution as that specifies several key things:

The electoral constituencies must be the provinces of Spain
The results in each constituency shall be allocated in a proportional manner
The seat allocation shall be done in a proportional manner, but there must be a minimum of seats per province which shall be specified in law

And PSOE's constitutional reform commision isn't going exactly well. A few days ago the few remaining "founding fathers" that were still alive (2 from UCD, 1 from the "Catalan minority", ie CiU) weren't exactly in favour

Interestingly it's not the only electoral reform that isn't going well. All groups in opposition in the Canary Islands (PP, PSOE, Podemos, NC) agreed to do a limited electoral reform. Parliament increases from 60 to 70, 1 extra seat would go to Fuerteventura and the other 9 would go to an at-large constituency and allocated to make results more proportional. Also thresholds are lowered from 6% in the archipielago/30% on a single island to half of that (3%/15%)

However if CC doesn't approve I don't think it¡s possible. Apparently electoral reform needs either a 2/3 majority (CC+ASG, the big winners have that) or a reform of the estatuto (currently being debated in the Congress of Deputies, but electoral reform is precisely the largest obstacle. In fact it already stopped it in 2007!)

Electoral reforms are also being debated in Castille-La Mancha (with the highest threshold, a de facto 8% threshold!) and Andalucia (where Cs is in coalition with PSOE, but PSOE doesn't want reforms), but neither has been passed yet.

I think only Murcia has done electoral reform because of Cs.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2018, 05:41:29 am by tack50 »Logged
tack50
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« Reply #1647 on: January 19, 2018, 08:07:14 am »

And PP falls to the third place! Also Podemos apparently recovers.

Simple Lógica poll





Approval ratings:



Interestingly, Iglesias is under water even among Podemos voters (-6) and Sánchez is only barely above among PSOE voters (+5).

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop18002_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

In other news, the first meeting of the Catalan parliament has happened and they elected a secessionist speaker by 65-56 (9 blank, 8 from Podemos and an unknown one, most likely from PSC). The regional MPs that were in jail were allowed to tell someone from their party who they wanted to vote for and have them vote in their name. The ones in Brussels didn't though.

And it's unclear if Puigdemont will be allowed to be elected remotely. The Spanish government has already said that they'll keep article 155 if he is reelected remotely as that goes against the Catalan parliament's rules, and will send it to court. ERC and CUP aren't exactly happy about having to put Puigdemont either.

A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2018, 08:30:21 am by tack50 »Logged
coloniac
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« Reply #1648 on: January 19, 2018, 08:37:31 am »

A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.

He's gotten the glorious taste of campaigning for the N-VA in Leuven for example, over "how to kick out the socialists" from the town hall.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/01/05/puigdemont-komt-spreken-bij-n-va-leuven--over-hoe-socialistische/

I imagine he misses the weather though.
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« Reply #1649 on: January 20, 2018, 09:54:40 am »

A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.

He's gotten the glorious taste of campaigning for the N-VA in Leuven for example, over "how to kick out the socialists" from the town hall.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/01/05/puigdemont-komt-spreken-bij-n-va-leuven--over-hoe-socialistische/

I imagine he misses the weather though.

How lovely.

Certainly the main victims of the 'process' have been the catalan socialists and the Spanish left in general. Artur Mas wanted to prevent another leftist government in Catalonia and in that regard he succeed.
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