Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 22, 2018, 07:51:27 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash)
| | |-+  Spanish elections and politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 62 63 64 65 66 [67] 68 69 70 71 72 ... 75 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 220228 times)
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1650 on: January 23, 2018, 08:04:47 am »

Not sure if I should post it here but since there isn't any EP election thread just yet since it's too far away, whatever.

http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2018/01/23/5a670fd422601da16d8b45e3.html

Spain will apparently get 5 more seats in the EU parliament in 2019, going up from 54 to 59. This is the largest amount of Spanish seats since 1999 (64 seats).

Since Spain uses a purely proportional system, 1 at-large constituency and no threshold, this will benefit small parties like VOX or PACMA. I wouldn't be surprised if they both get in. In fact, VOX would already have an MEP if Spain had had 59 seats in 2014

The 2014 results would have been:

PP: 18 (+2)
PSOE 16 (+2)
IU: 6
UPyD 4
Podemos 5
CEU (CC+PNV+CiU): 3
ERC 2
Cs 2
LPD (Bildu+BNG) 1
PE (Equo+Compromís) 1
VOX 1 (+1)

The 5 extra seats go to PP, PSOE and VOX.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2018, 07:40:50 am by tack50 »Logged
Southern Speaker The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,990


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1651 on: January 23, 2018, 09:15:52 am »

I would've thought that UPyD would've crumbled as Cs grew, but they're doing pretty well.
Logged

tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1652 on: January 23, 2018, 10:52:45 am »

I would've thought that UPyD would've crumbled as Cs grew, but they're doing pretty well.

It's not a poll or anything like that though. It's just the 2014 result but with 59 seats instead of 54. Obviously nowadays UPyD would be extremely lucky to even hold 1 seat (one of their MEPs, Maite Pagazartundua, is somewhat famous for MEP standards though I doubt she'll hold her seat) and Cs would grow a lot.

I guess UPyD's closest comparison here might be CDS (another centrist party, the spiritual successor to UCD) in the 1994 EP elections, when the party had almost completely disappeared and everyone relevant had left but their candidate (Eduard Punset, later famous for his documentaries) was still somewhat famous. They got 1%, not enough to get a seat but still a very good showing.

I did not expect PP and PSOE to both grow by 2 though, I thought the new seats would be allocated in a more egalitarian fashion.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2018, 11:05:32 am by tack50 »Logged
Southern Speaker The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,990


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1653 on: January 23, 2018, 01:07:52 pm »

Ah ok. Thanks!
Logged

tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1654 on: January 28, 2018, 10:24:47 am »

And Cs slowly but surely keeps rising. Podemos is also very slowly recovering while PP is on free fall

Invymark-La Sexta poll

PP: 26,1%
Cs: 23,4%
PSOE: 23,0%
UP: 16.2%
Others: 11.3%

Approval ratings (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 3.68
Pedro Sánchez: 4,28
Albert Rivera: 4.45
Pablo Iglesias: 2.78

http://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/baro-voto_201801285a6de0c80cf2717a3c2f8893.html

Also some regional polling. I guess we'll see more of these next year when the regonal elections are actually imminent

IBES for Balearic Islands regional elections (30 for a majority)





MES are left wing nationalists and I think open to hypothetical unification with Catalonia, El PI are right wing nationalists and probably opposed on that but favourable to more decentralization. They are the successor to Unió Mallorquina, which was arguably the most corrupt party in Spanish history relative to their size.

So the left wing majority basically evaporates and it would be too close to call. However unlike in other regions PI might not automatically join with PP and Cs. In fact the Balearic Islands have already seen "everyone against PP" coalitions, like in 1999 and 2007. I still think if the left loses its majority the most likely scenario is PP-Cs-PI but it's not guaranteed.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 02:03:18 pm by tack50 »Logged
¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,695
Kiribati


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1655 on: February 02, 2018, 07:16:28 am »

Seeing as Iglesias is so unpopular, could he be ousted or persuaded to move on? Is Errejon still part of the party?
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,605
Portugal


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1656 on: February 02, 2018, 10:22:57 am »

Ada Colau, Barcelona's mayor, has lost a confidence vote and challenges the opposition to present an alternative government and Mayor.

What are the chances of the PDeCAT/C's/PP/PSC opposition of supporting an alternative candidate?
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1657 on: February 02, 2018, 12:18:44 pm »

Very slim. The current distribution in Barcelona's town hall is (21 councillors for an overall majority):


En Comú 11
CiU 10
Cs 5
ERC 5
PSC 4
PP 3
CUP 3

However I seriously doubt that a CiU-Cs-PP-PSC no confidence vote would work. CiU is radically different to the 3 others on the independence stuff (which was part of the reason why PSC and Podemos broke up in Barcelona) and PSC wouldn't support such a right wing government.

I guess Colau will stay for now but each time she seems like she will have a tougher time being reelected. I wouldn't be surprised if she was defeated. And that's considering that Barcelona is one of the safest towns for Podemos and that their next rival on the left (ERC) has half their seats!
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1658 on: February 03, 2018, 11:09:38 am »

Seeing as Iglesias is so unpopular, could he be ousted or persuaded to move on? Is Errejon still part of the party?

Errejón is still part of the party, but it seems he'll just run for regional president in Madrid and has been out of the spotlight for a while. In fact I think Iglesias has basically taken out anyone who could contest his leadership.

I think all 4 main party leaders (Rajoy, Sánchez, Iglesias, Rivera) will all make it to the next general election.
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1659 on: February 05, 2018, 02:23:05 pm »

Well, here's the latest poll. If someone cares it also has other questions (like whether Spain should be more or less centralized or what worries Spaniards the most) and some crosstabs (by age, party and a couple others). It's generally considered the most complete poll:

CIS poll

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2018/Documentacion_3203.html

PP: 26.3%

PSOE: 23.1%
Cs: 20.7%
UP: 19.0%

ERC: 3.4%
PDECat: 2%
PNV: 1.2%
Bildu: 0.8%
CC: 0.2%
Others: 1.8%

Approval ratings for politicians (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 2.87
Pedro Sánchez: 3.68
Albert Rivera: 4.01
Pablo Iglesias: 2.54
Alberto Garzón: 3.67

Íñigo Alli (UPN): 2.75
Joan Baldoví (Compromís): 3.94
Marian Beitialarrangoitia (Bildu): 3.05
Carles Campuzano (PDECat): 3.17
Yolanda Díaz (En Marea): 3.32
Xavier Domenezh (En Comú Podem): 3.53

Aitor Esteban (PNV): 3.50
Isidro Martinez Oblanca (Foro Asturias): 2.38
Ana Oramas (CC): 3.77
Pedro Quevedo (NCa): 3.23
Joan Tardà (ERC): 2.71

Approval ratings for the cabinet

Fátima Bañez (Employment): 2.9
Rafael Catalá (Justice): 2.81
Maria Dolores de Cospedal (Defense): 2.93
Alfonso Dastis (Foreign affairs): 2.71
Isabel García Tejerina (Agriculture): 3.27
Luis de Guindos (Economy): 2.98
Íñigo Méndez de Vigo (Education, Government speaker): 3.03
Cristobal Montoro (Treasury): 2.33
Dolors Monserrat (Healthcare): 2.87
Álvaro Nadal (Energy and Tourism): 2.62
Soraya Saenz de Santamaría (Deputy Prime Minister): 3.58
Íñigo de la Serna (Public Works): 3.00
Juan Ignacio Zoido (Interior): 2.90
« Last Edit: February 05, 2018, 02:30:19 pm by tack50 »Logged
maineiac4434🌲🌹
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,392
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1660 on: February 06, 2018, 08:22:56 am »

I wonder how much Catalonia is hurting UP and Iglesias. The party's support for a Catalan secession referendum, while noble, cannot be popular with the rest of the country.
Logged

tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1661 on: February 07, 2018, 06:14:20 pm »

Podemos and Cs have been working on a new electoral reform deal by themselves. They are trying to limit themselves to reforms that don't require constitutional reforms so that they can pass it without PP, just by convincing PSOE.

Today Podemos presented their proposal, which has 4 basic points:

-Lowering the voting age to 16

-Introducing "zipper lists". As in lists must alternate between men and women. Iirc Podemos and PSOE already do this by themselves, they want to make it mandatory for everyone else

-Replacing the D'Hondt method by Sainte Lague.

-Removing the "begged vote" system for Spaniards abroad.

-A joint "mailing" for ballots. In Spain ballots for the main parties are sent to your home instead of you having to pick them up. This obviously benefits large parties and it will remain this way, this is more of a cost saving measure.

-Mandatory debates

Of these the only one that has a real effect is the 3rd measure. While D'Hondt per se is not what makes the Spanish system not fully proportional (that would be provincial constituencies) it still makes it better. For reference the 2016 results would have been:

PP: 122 (-15)

PSOE: 84 (-1)
Podemos: 77 (+6)
Cs: 44 (+12)
ERC: 9 (nc)

PDECat: 7 (-1)
PNV: 4 (-1)
Bildu: 2 (nc)
CC: 1 (nc)

As for the others, lowering the voting age to 16 will almost certainly fail. Mandatory debates will probably fail as well. The others will probably be successful.

In general this is an underwhelming reform but is better than nothing. Of course we now have to wait for Cs' counteroffer and whether PSOE will even support their efforts as well. I certainly hope so but it's far from guaranteed.

--X--

Also, Catalonia has been having trouble getting a regional president. Puigdemont can't return to Spain and courts have determined that in order to be elected regional president he has to be in parliament. Secessionists wanted to elect him anyways but in the end the parliament speaker Roger Torrent (who had the power to call or not the parliamentary meeting) chickened out at the last minute and cancelled the meeting

So now ERC, JxCat and CUP are negotiating. Puigdemont apparently doesn't want to become irrelevant like Mas before him which is causing trouble.

The most common solution I've seen proposed is the "dual presidency" where there would be a symbolic president and a real one. ERC wants the legislature to behave normally and Puigdemont to be symbolic (think of the Spanish king). Puigdemont wants to be the real president, with a real parliament to elect him (he proposed the "mayors meeting", ie a meeting of all secessionists mayors) and the institutions in Barcelona being just puppets.

Unionist parties aren't happy and I guess they would sue but IMO a dual presidency would be legal. It wouldn't be that different from Kazcynski in Poland or Dragnea in Romania.
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1662 on: February 09, 2018, 09:03:38 am »

Well, I guess El País is starting to do its polls on their offices. Either that or they are outright making them up.

Metroscopia-El País poll

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/02/08/actualidad/1518116526_354844.html



With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10

PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1

Cs-PP and Cs-PSOE both get a majority. In terms of regional winners:

PP: Galicia, Navarra, Ceuta, Melilla
PSOE: Andalucia, Extremadura
PNV: Basque Country
Unsure: Castille-Leon, Castille-La Mancha. The former probably leans Cs, the latter leans PP.
Cs: Everything else
Logged
Heat
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 90
Poland


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1663 on: February 09, 2018, 12:39:34 pm »

With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10

PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1
Where can this extrapolator be found?
Logged

It's the same old theme
Since 1916
In your head, in your head, they're still fighting
With their tanks, and their bombs
And their bombs, and their guns
In your head, in your head, they are dying
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,605
Portugal


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1664 on: February 09, 2018, 12:51:25 pm »

Well, I guess El País is starting to do its polls on their offices. Either that or they are outright making them up.

Metroscopia-El País poll

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/02/08/actualidad/1518116526_354844.html



With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10

PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1

Cs-PP and Cs-PSOE both get a majority. In terms of regional winners:

PP: Galicia, Navarra, Ceuta, Melilla
PSOE: Andalucia, Extremadura
PNV: Basque Country
Unsure: Castille-Leon, Castille-La Mancha. The former probably leans Cs, the latter leans PP.
Cs: Everything else


Results by province.

Yeah, C's results seem very exaggerated. Metroscopia has a history of overpolling either C's and Podemos.
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1665 on: February 09, 2018, 12:53:09 pm »

With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10

PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1
Where can this extrapolator be found?

http://electomania.es/electocalculadora-3-0-%C2%A1ahora-con-mapa-integrado/

Here it is. It's an Excel spreadsheet where you put the percentages for each party and it extrapolates the Congress, Senate and even does a map.

The only downside is that it seems to be based off the 2015 election, not the 2016 one. Though it at least does add up IU and Podemos as UP.
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1666 on: February 11, 2018, 07:41:13 am »

Another poll, this time from Gad3-ABC. Seems like the situation has stabilized.

Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,605
Portugal


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1667 on: February 11, 2018, 02:39:35 pm »

Another poll, this time from Gad3-ABC. Seems like the situation has stabilized.



Yeah, it seems to stabilize but this poll is bucking the trend a bit: a PP increase and a slight C's decrease. We'll see if another poll confirms this.

Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1668 on: February 12, 2018, 08:08:53 am »

Apparently that poll also had a 2nd part, this time about the 2019 local elections. They polled the 52 provincial capitals and claim that PP+Cs would be able to get up to 35 of them. There are no date on the rest for some reason. The map looks like this



PP hold: Santander, Leon, Palencia, Burgos, Logroño, Guadalajara, Cuenca, Albacete, Cáceres, Badajoz, Jaén, Granada, Málaga, Almería, Ceuta, Melilla, Murcia

Cs gain from PP: Ávila

PP gain from PSOE: Oviedo, Huesca, Valladolid, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Córdoba

PP gain from nationalists: Palma de Mallorca (Technically PSOE held the mayor for 2 years and Mes for the other 2 as part of their deal, it was a tie)

PP gain from IU/Podemos: Zamora, Madrid, Cádiz

Cs gain from nationalists: Valencia (Compromís)

Cs gain from PSOE: Alicante

PSOE hold (but PP-Cs would have more councillors): Toledo, Sevilla

Overall number of councillors:



Since they didn't cover cities where PP+Cs wouldn't get a majority, I'll try to do them but these are just guesses:

A Coruña: Safe Podemos hold
Pontevedra: Safe BNG hold
Ourense: Likely Podemos hold
Lugo: Safe PSOE hold

IMO Ourense could change hands inside the block (to PSOE) and Lugo is the likeliest PP-Cs pickup. The other 2 are safe

Bilbao: Safe PNV hold (literally held by PNV since Spain became a democracy)
San Sebastián: Lean PNV hold
Vitoria: Lean PP gain

Keep in mind that while Bilbao is titanium PNV, the other 2 are very hard to predict because of post electoral deals.

Lleida: Tossup between PDECat and PSC
Girona: Safe PDECat hold
Tarragona: Lean PSOE hold
Barcelona: Lean Podemos hold

Again, other than Girona (and to a lesser extent Barcelona) the others are very hard to predict because of post electoral alliances. It will depend on how much the nationalist axis influences the standard left-right axis

Pamplona: Lean UPN gain
Soria: Safe PSOE hold
Segovia: Safe PSOE hold
Huelva: Safe PSOE hold

Again, Pamplona is a bit hard to predict, the other 3 are extremely safe for PSOE (in Huelva's case only if PP-Cs don't get a majority). They even got an overall majority in Soria and Segovia in 2015!

Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Lean PP gain.
Santa Cruz de Tenerife: Likely CC hold

Santa Cruz will probably stay with CC, probably through CC-PP. In Las Palmas PP-Cs doesn't get a majority but they could probably count on UxGC, a PP split. Or in CC if it somehow gets representation but that seems very unlikely.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 08:11:02 am by tack50 »Logged
¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,695
Kiribati


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1669 on: February 12, 2018, 08:58:19 am »

Are C's always going to vote with PP, or could they support a PSOE administration?

Also, I thought Podemos didn't exist at a local level, and they had all sorts of quasi-independent municipal lists theu sponsered?
Logged
tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1670 on: February 12, 2018, 09:20:45 am »

There could be PSOE-Cs alliances. Particularly in places where PSOE is the largest party but not just limited to those. It would depend more on local issues I guess.

And yes, Podemos doesn't technically exist at the local level but let's be honest, most people who vote for one of those independent lists probably knows they are voting for Podemos. But yes, they can get very complicated.

Not sure if they'll do that again. I guess it will depend on the local specifics, their relation with the local IU branch, etc.
Logged
Southern Speaker The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,990


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1671 on: February 12, 2018, 09:24:03 am »

Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?
Logged

tack50
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 946
Spain


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1672 on: February 12, 2018, 04:08:00 pm »

Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?

I thought everyone already knew about them. But sure, no problem.

Economically they are quite pro-free market. So they support lower taxes, entrepeneurs, more flexible labour laws and the like. One of their key proposals for the last elections was a single contract type, to replace the current dual system of temporary and indefinite contracts.

In terms of social stuff they are centrist I think. They support legalizing surrogate motherhood. Originally they had 2 quite conservative proposals: keeping the law that makes illegal inmigrants only able to get emergancy healthcare and ammending the 2004 gender violence law which according to them unfairly criminalizes men. They've gone back on the 2nd and I think also on the first but I'm not sure on that one.

In general they are seen as more liberal than PP though and have none of the ties to the Catholic Church that PP has (at least nominally)

As for other stuff they are quite tough on corruption and want a stronger central government. They want to abolish the Senate and the provincial governments.

And of course they are quite hardline on the Catalan issue, opposing any deals with the nationalists. They also oppose the special Basque financing system. This is expected since they originally were born as an explicitly anti Catalan nationalist party.

In general they are your standard European centrist liberal party. I've often seen Rivera compared to Macron.
Logged
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,938
Canada


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1673 on: February 12, 2018, 06:48:03 pm »

The previous post, like many others, ignores the fact they are a Castillan nationalist party.
Logged
Southern Speaker The Saint
TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,990


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1674 on: February 12, 2018, 06:53:42 pm »

Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?

I thought everyone already knew about them. But sure, no problem.

I did (in fact, they are one of my favorite parties), but from my end, I sometimes have trouble finding their stances on issues outside of Spanish unionism so easily. In addition, many have described it as being anything from center-left to center-right, so i just wanted to know how someone in Spain would describe them.

Thank you for the response!
Logged

Pages: 1 ... 62 63 64 65 66 [67] 68 69 70 71 72 ... 75 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines