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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 237281 times)
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« Reply #1675 on: February 14, 2018, 01:33:26 am »

The previous post, like many others, ignores the fact they are a Castillan Spanish internationalist party.
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« Reply #1676 on: February 14, 2018, 10:07:39 am »

The main achievement of Catalan separatism -its absurdity, its lies and its disconnection from reality- is the awakening of a reactionary version of Spanish nationalism.

Cs is a Spanish nationalist party seeking forma a recentralization  of the Spanish state in open competition with the corrupt and decadent PP.
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« Reply #1677 on: February 15, 2018, 08:02:20 am »

The previous post, like many others, ignores the fact they are a Castillan nationalist party.

Cs was born in Catalonia as Ciutadans. It was a non-entity outside Catalonia until 2015. By no means Cs is a 'Castilian' party. It's a Spanish party with Catalan origins.
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« Reply #1678 on: February 18, 2018, 10:22:43 am »

2 more new polls

Celeste-Tel for Eldiario.es

PP: 118-123 (28.9%)

PSOE: 92-95 (25.5%)
Cs: 61-63 (19.3%)
UP: 47-52 (16.5%)
PACMA: 0 (1.2%)
Others: 1.6%

ERC: 10-11 (2.7%)
PDECat: 6 (1.6%)
PNV: 5-6 (1.3%)
Bildu: 2-3 (0.9%)
CC: 1 (0.3%)

Also includes vote by age and vote transfers

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Encuesta-electoral-Celeste-Tel-noviembre_0_739826392.html

Invymark for La Sexta

PP: 25.9%

Cs: 23.8%
PSOE: 22.8%
UP: 16.5%

Approval ratings

Albert Rivera: 4.52
Pedro Sánchez: 4.32
Mariano Rajoy: 3.23
Pablo Iglesias: 2.64

Seat distribution (assuming an even swing)



http://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/ciudadanos-se-consolida-como-la-segunda-fuerza-politica-en-intencion-de-voto-a-solo-dos-puntos-del-pp_201802185a89804c0cf2af57a90682bd.html
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« Reply #1679 on: February 27, 2018, 11:30:07 am »

For some reason we just got 3 polls for the next Andalusian regional election during last week. Tomorrow is Andalucía's national day so I guess that's the reason why.

In theory the election isn't due until March 2019 (shortly before the EU, regional and local elections in May). However many expect Susana Diaz to call a snap election though she denies this.

Anyways, here are the 3 polls:

EGOPA (basically the "Andalusian CIS". Done by the University of Granada)



Approval ratings

Susana Diaz (PSOE): 4.38/10 (known by 91%)
Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla (PP): 4.14/10 (known by 58%)
Teresa Rodriguez (Podemos): 4.18/10 (known by 59%)
Juan Marín (Cs): 4.76/10 (known by 42%)
Antonio Maíllo (IU): 4.49/10 (known by 56%)

http://cadpea.ugr.es/v4/documentos/file/EGOPA%20INVIERNO%202018/Informe%20EGOPA%20INV%C2%B42018%20copia.pdf

NC Report (seats only) 109 seats, 55 for a majority

PP: 33 (-)
Cs: 14 (+5)
PSOE: 43 (-4)
Podemos: 14 (-1)
IU: 5 (-)

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/sevilla/20180226/441100728558/psoe-a-ganaria-con-8-puntos-sobre-el-pp-a-que-repetiria-escanos-y-cs-lograria-cinco-mas-segun-un-sondeo-de-el-mundo.html

SW Información

PP: 22.5% (25 seats)
Cs: 19.5% (23 seats)
PSOE: 35.4% (45 seats)
UP: 16.5% (16 seats)

http://electomania.es/andalucia-el-psoe-ganaria-de-nuevo-ciudadanos-cerca-del-sorpasso-al-pp/

For reference, the 2015 results were:

PSOE: 35.3% (47 seats)
PP: 26.7% (33 seats)
Podemos: 14.8% (15 seats)
Cs: 9.2% (9 seats)
IU: 6.9% (5 seats)

UPyD: 1.9% (0 seats)
Andalusian Party: 1.7% (0 seats)

Not sure if UPyD will contest the election, though it will be basically in zombie form if it does. The Andalusian Party dissolved shortly after the election. Maybe there will be some successor but I don't think it will even get 1%.
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« Reply #1680 on: February 27, 2018, 11:54:47 am »

Is a Unidos/PSOE coalition likely? Or will Diaz look to the C's first?
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« Reply #1681 on: February 27, 2018, 01:48:25 pm »

Is a Unidos/PSOE coalition likely? Or will Diaz look to the C's first?

Not really. Podemos hates PSOE-A with a passion. Diaz will only go with them as a last resort probably.

In fact, if PP-Cs is short of a majority it wouldn't be completely impossible for Podemos to abstain and allow them to form a minority government, particularly if Cs is ahead.

This has already happened with IU in the past, see Asturias 1995 and Extremadura 2011. Though IU did go with PSOE in 2012 so who knows? Probably likelier to see PSOE-Podemos in that scenario.

Then again Cs' rise basically makes that scenario impossible. It would require PSOE not coming in first, PSOE-Cs not being enough and Podemos abstaining.
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« Reply #1682 on: March 04, 2018, 08:35:34 am »

Ok, here are the last few national polls:

NC Report for La Razón



Invymark for La Sexta



I think things have stabilized a bit? Cs and PSOE seem tied while PP is narrowly ahead. An interesting sideffect of this results could be Cs beating PSOE on the popular vote but getting less seats. It's something that has never happened in Spain but that is theoretically possible (if unlikely)
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« Reply #1683 on: March 05, 2018, 10:40:09 am »

And PP comes in third in a poll!  Not sure if it's the first or not



However the most interesting thing is PACMA. They come at 2%, compared to 1.2% in 2016.

That means that PACMA might get a seat or even 2! They need 3% in Madrid or Barcelona to get seats. In 2016 they got 1.2% in the former and 1.8% in the latter. So at 2% they probably get the Barcelona seat
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« Reply #1684 on: March 05, 2018, 11:07:43 am »

Politico.eu has an interesting article on the conflicts between PP and Cs: All-out war on the Spanish right

The article mentions local officials switching parties:

Quote
Worryingly for Rajoy, however, a series of PP officials have defected to Ciudadanos in recent weeks. The trend, limited for the moment to a few dozen local officials, reminds some observers of the shift from France’s Les Républicains to Macron’s La République en Marche.

It also discusses a little bit about conversations around a snap election:

Quote
Rajoy doesn’t have to call a general election until 2020, but the surge in support for Rivera, who dreams of an Emmanuel Macron-style assault on the ruling party, is clearly bothering the conservatives, and the hostilities have become more heated by the week.

How do you see things playing out, Tack? Is a snap election somewhat of a possibility?
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« Reply #1685 on: March 05, 2018, 08:08:53 pm »

It's possible, but I would not count on it. In fact every effort by Rajoy seems to be going in the opposite direction, trying to hold until the 2019 regional/local/EU elections and see if PP gets a decent result there or not.

The opposition is claiming that we currently have a "do nothing Congress". Rajoy has promised that he will finally bring a budget to parliament on the 23rd of March. He still doesn't have any support though.

I guess the Canarian parties (particularly CC) won't offer much resistance. But Cs might try and vote against it to capitalize on its good polling numbers though that's a risky strategy. I think Cs will pass it though.

However PNV has said that they won't support any budget until article 155 is lifted on Catalonia which is a whole other story of its own.

On the Catalan side after the whole Puigdemont fiasco he has finally accepted that he won't become regional president. Now the nominee is Jordi Sánchez, number 2 in PDECat's list, former head of a  pro-independence association and most importantly, currently on jail.

However he might not even get the votes to begin with. ERC is definitely not happy about that. They claim that if there is going to be a president from jail and that the number 2 choice for a seccessionist, should be Oriol Junqueras (Puigdemont's VP). However PDECat claims that the president should come from the largest party (ie PDECat)

And CUP has already announced that they won't support Sánchez. In theory this shouldn't be an issue since ERC+JxCat have 66 seats compared to unionists+Podemos' 65, so just an abstention (or being absent) would be enough. Howeveer Puigdemont and one of his former regional ministers are in Brussels and they can't vote so the total score would be 64-65 in favour of unionists so Sánchez would be rejected.

In other words the Catalan issue won't be solved any time soon. Though at least a failed Sánchez vote would make the clock tick towards a second regional election. The Puigdemont failed investiture (where there was a mini "constitutional crisis" with conflicting laws) ended with everyone basically agreeing that the clock hasn't started to count down yet.

And as for a no confidence vote the opposition is too divided so it doesn't seem like they will all join in a no confidence vote. Which means Rajoy could easily stay until 2020 and just rule by decree (though any decrees can be rejected by Congress, in fact the first rejection of a government decree in Spanish history already happened in this term).
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« Reply #1686 on: March 11, 2018, 07:40:01 am »

Large lead for C in  Metroscopia  poll

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« Reply #1687 on: March 11, 2018, 08:03:52 am »

On a sidenote, Jordi Sánchez has not been allowed to temporarily leave jail to attend his investiture vote in Catalonia. The Catalan parliament president has suspended the vote again.

In other words, Catalonia won't be getting a government any time soon.
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« Reply #1688 on: March 11, 2018, 01:39:09 pm »

how are all the corruption cases going? I remember before Catalonia eupted as an issue, it very much looked like Rajoy himself would get caught up?

Well Rajoy still lead the PP by next election?
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« Reply #1689 on: March 11, 2018, 03:01:05 pm »

how are all the corruption cases going? I remember before Catalonia eupted as an issue, it very much looked like Rajoy himself would get caught up?

Well Rajoy still lead the PP by next election?

Well, the trickle of corrupt PP politicians has continued for the last few months or so. The hottest case right now seems to be a continuation of the Gürtel case, involving the Valencian PP, but there have been others.

And yes, Rajoy will still lead PP by the next election. He says that he wants to continue and an internal revolt seems impossible (if it wasn't done in 2008, it won't happen now).

I guess Cs could try to pass term limits but I don't think that will go anywhere.
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« Reply #1690 on: March 11, 2018, 08:56:16 pm »

There was a massive feminist strike on March 8

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/08/spanish-women-give-up-work-for-a-day-in-first-feminist-strike

This has been the most relevant political issue this week. What is more: that day will pass to history. I feel deeply grateful and, for once, proud of my country. Feminism is a good cause that trascends sex, gender, ethnicity or personal beliefs.

Feminist tide is a breath of fresh air after the insufferable war on flags (Catalan separatism, Spanish nationalism).

The success of the feminist strike caught Spanish Right unaware. PP and Cs have tried to join the feminist wave after the big Women's Day demonstrations, when both parties were previously hostile or wary to the call.

The feminist tide in Spain is cross-ideological and cross-generational
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 03:30:57 am by Velasco »Logged

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« Reply #1691 on: March 12, 2018, 06:08:40 am »

To be fair, the actual strike was very underwhelming. Just compare the electricity consumption data to that of the last general strike (14th November 2012). Though it also doesn't help that only small unions were supporting the 24h strikes, with the major unions (CCOO and UGT) only backing 2h strikes

https://demanda.ree.es/demanda.html

What was a success were the protests in the same day, which was a surprise to me. I though they were going to fail hard.

I'm happy we've moved on from flags I guess but I don't quite agree with the feminists.

Though watching PP and Cs hilariously backflip hard was really nice.

PP went from people like Cifuentes and Tejerina saying they will do a "Japanese strike" (ie work harder), to Rajoy inmediately saying that he doesn't believe that. And Cs went from being against the strike because it was anticapitalist to fully supporting it (though in Cs' defense, one of the issues was that capitalism opressed women and their flip wasn't as hard as PP's)
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« Reply #1692 on: March 13, 2018, 08:54:36 am »

What is C's position on the rather draconian censorship laws the PP has been introducing? It should be a litmus test of their "liberal" credentials.
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« Reply #1693 on: March 13, 2018, 11:12:50 am »

Well, iirc they were in favour of repealing the "gag law" at least nominally. However they hadn't really done anything about it until this February when they voted to pass a motion to start repealing it. Still not repealed though.

However as of now the big "liberal" debate is probably the repeal of "permanent revisable prision", a form of life imprisionment introduced in 2015 by PP.

This has come into the spotlight because of a few mediatic murder cases reciently. The positions are:

PP: They want to keep it as is, or even make it harsher

Cs: They've done a flip. Back when they made a deal with PSOE they agreed to repeal it as part of the deal (though it wasn't part of their platform in Cs defense). However now they have flipped to PP's position, where they want to keep it or even make it harsher. They do seem slightly more moderate than PP though

PSOE, Podemos and PNV are the main parties behind the effort to repeal the law, they all agree on repealing it.

Worth noting that back when it was passed all parties except PP sent the law to the constitutional court to see if it was constitutional. No news on that front though.

So I guess Cs is becoming less liberal and more of a PP-lite without corruption
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« Reply #1694 on: March 14, 2018, 12:49:53 am »

To be fair, the actual strike was very underwhelming. Just compare the electricity consumption data to that of the last general strike (14th November 2012). Though it also doesn't help that only small unions were supporting the 24h strikes, with the major unions (CCOO and UGT) only backing 2h strikes

https://demanda.ree.es/demanda.html

What was a success were the protests in the same day, which was a surprise to me. I though they were going to fail hard.

I'm happy we've moved on from flags I guess but I don't quite agree with the feminists.

Though watching PP and Cs hilariously backflip hard was really nice
.

PP went from people like Cifuentes and Tejerina saying they will do a "Japanese strike" (ie work harder), to Rajoy inmediately saying that he doesn't believe that. And Cs went from being against the strike because it was anticapitalist to fully supporting it (though in Cs' defense, one of the issues was that capitalism opressed women and their flip wasn't as hard as PP's)

The bolded sentence is the proof that feminists achieved a great success.

As for electric consumption data, keep in mind that it was a "women's strike" (in most cases men went to work) and that in many cases there were selective and not total strikes. It was a glorious journey, in my opinion. Feminists have achieved the"transversality" that Podemos and Ciudadanos have been always pursuing. Furthermore, they have achieved "hegemony" (Íñigo Errejón must be happy) I don't know if these protests will have electoral repercussion, but everybody will have to note down. In that regard Albert Rivera reacted awkwardly (not to mention Rajoy, Tejerina and Cifuentes). Macron would have reacted with more agility. There is an undeniable prejudice against feminism in the Spanish Right.

I think feminist demands are fair and reasonable. Given that you don't give arguments against, I don't know where are your disagreements. 
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« Reply #1695 on: March 14, 2018, 08:35:17 am »

I mean, I just think they might be going too far? Not sure how to put it really. Many demands are reasonable, but some of my complaints might include:

The "wage gap" doesn't really exist. If you adjust for hours worked, position, etc; the wage gap basically disappears, it's just that women usually take less paid jobs, work less hours etc. Of course now you have to ask whether that's because of social pressure or what, but the "wage gap" in the "women earn less for the same job" sense  doesn't really exist.

In fact I think it will probably shrink naturally over the years as the generations educated under Franco (when women didn't really work and were discriminated if they did) retire and since women have a majority of degrees in university.

Other stuff I don't fully agree might include

Way too much focus on "oppression by the patriarchy". Though it might be me being subconsciously biased against those terms.

While not the focus of the strike, it involved anti-capitalist elements.

It was way too politicised. Looking at the manifesto, many parts might as well be part of Podemos' or PSOE's 2020 manifesto. Think of stuff like critizising cuts and corruption.

That and the fact that the stike was redundant in itself IMO. The 2h strikes by the major unions were much better. I do fully support the protests though.

Now, it doesn't mean that I disagree with all or even most of the manifesto (I'd probably agree 50-75%), I just think it went a bit too far?

I feel like while there's still stuff to do, women in Spain are really well off. Iirc Spain was the 5th best country to be a woman, only behind like the nordic countries. We are on the right track, inequality will probably solve itself over time. We just have to wait now, Rome wasn't built in a day after all.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2018, 08:39:24 am by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #1696 on: March 14, 2018, 08:42:42 am »

On a sidenote, the pensionists protests have been also very successful. They are also bringing pensions back to the debate.

For those unaware, the government has been rising pensions by 0.25% each year even though inflation is much higher than that. So in the end it equals to some sort of "hidden cut"

The thing is that the entire Spanish pension system is probably a Ponzi scheme in that young people (less) pay the pensions of old people (more). So the big problem here (as everywhere else) is sustainability.

Iirc Podemos and PSOE are pushing to tie pensions to inflation while the government is opposed to that.
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« Reply #1697 on: March 14, 2018, 04:29:53 pm »

I mean, I just think they might be going too far? Not sure how to put it really. Many demands are reasonable, but some of my complaints might include:

The "wage gap" doesn't really exist. If you adjust for hours worked, position, etc; the wage gap basically disappears, it's just that women usually take less paid jobs, work less hours etc. Of course now you have to ask whether that's because of social pressure or what, but the "wage gap" in the "women earn less for the same job" sense  doesn't really exist.

In fact I think it will probably shrink naturally over the years as the generations educated under Franco (when women didn't really work and were discriminated if they did) retire and since women have a majority of degrees in university.

According to INE the average gross re numeration of men was EUR 25.992.76 in 2015, while women earned EUR 20.051.58 on average. This means that year women earned 23% less than men on average. It's the so-called "yearly wage gap" unadjusted.

Given that the proportion of women with part-time jobs is much higher than men's (25% and 8%, respectively), Eurostat measures gross re numeration per hour worked. According to that, wage gap in Spain is 14.2%. The higher proportion of part-time jobs is related with the role of women as mothers, housewives and caregivers.

It is illegal to pay different salaries for doing the same job, but the principle of "equal pay for work of equal value" is not always met. Direct discrimination is rare. but indirect discrimination is more common.  For examples and further detail on what is the "wage gap", read the article linked below.

https://elpais.com/economia/2018/03/07/actualidad/1520446618_332181.html

 My opinion is that the concept of "wage gap" is more real than the "Japanese strike" (it's an urban legend circulating in Spain). Even Cristina Cifuentes admits its existence!

Quote
Way too much focus on "oppression by the patriarchy". Though it might be me being subconsciously biased against those terms.

The historical existence of patriarchy is undeniable. We live in a patriarchal society, Despite men and women are equal before the law, there is discrimination in many aspects of life. Patriarchy is deeply entrenched in our culture and our society and it will take generations achieving real gender equality. The ugliest face of what some feminists call "oppression by the patriarchy" is gender violence. Also women trafficking, or the fact that a woman cannot walk alone at night without fear (something that average men don't experience).You may not like feminist terminology, but it's based on reality. 

Quote
It was way too politicised. Looking at the manifesto, many parts might as well be part of Podemos' or PSOE's 2020 manifesto. Think of stuff like critizising cuts and corruption.

Obviously. The struggle for gender equality is political. Look from another angle: maybe Podemos and PSOE are more open to feminism than PP and Cs. Out of interest, PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez tried to hit the headlines on March 8 demonstrations and was booed by feminists.

Quote
While not the focus of the strike, it involved anti-capitalist elements

It's a poor excuse, in my opinion. It's not necessary to embrace anti-capitalism in order to support the protests. Even if you don't agree with the wording of the manifesto, the cause of gender equality transcends that ideology.

I like Inés Arrimadas and think that she's much better than her boss, the terrible Albert Rivera, but she made a mistake in not supporting the protests because of the anti-capitalist thing. On the other hand, Cs is far from being a feminist party. Remember the 2015 campaign.
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« Reply #1698 on: March 14, 2018, 04:42:59 pm »

On a sidenote, the pensionists protests have been also very successful. They are also bringing pensions back to the debate.

The pensioner protests are more than a footnote. Also, they touch the aging PP voter base. On the other hand, PP has emptied the social security money box. The future of pension system is at stake. Given the current demographic trend, the problem is very worrying.

Corruption, Catalonia, anti-capitalist women, angry pensioners... Everything runs smoothly. Mariano! Grin
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« Reply #1699 on: March 16, 2018, 06:51:02 am »

We have some new polls. And for the first time ever, Vox manages to get a seat in a regional assembly!

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es



Simple Lógica





Approval ratings





And the poll you were all waiting for:

SyM Consulting for Murcia regional assembly



Yes, the "others" part is confirmed to be Vox

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/974371882031075328

That pollster has done quite a lot of regional polls actually over the last few months, but this one is by far the most interesting one, mostly because of the IU revival and Vox's rise
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