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November 14, 2019, 04:01:43 pm
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 287861 times)
tack50
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« Reply #1700 on: March 21, 2018, 06:23:38 pm »

We somehow got a lot of big news today!

First of all we have a big scandal from regional president of Madrid, Cristina Cifuentes (PP). She is being accused of falsifying her final Masters degree work and another course. The university and Cifuentes have denied this and released some documents but the ones who uncovered the scandal are releasing contradicting documents so who knows? Thus far she has not given a good explanation.

And this is a very big scandal for several reasons:

The regional election is in June of 2019, little more than a year from now. And PP will start choosing its candidates soon. So if she is found guilty of falsifying her degree she will have to be replaced. So far she is giving big vibes of corruption, another corruption case she also didn't really explain it well.

Her deal with Cs explicitly said that if someone from the government was found falsyfying their curriculum, they had to resign. Thus far Cs hasn't broken the alliance but if she isn't able to explain it well, they'll probably do that soon.




And the other big news, guess who? Everyone's favourite region, Catalonia!

The judge in charge of the case against the former regional government called a meeting for this friday, to see if he sent them back to prision, put them a bigger bail, did nothing, retired their passports, the usual stuff

To counteract this and just to be sure that they don't go to jail, the president of the catalan parliament, Roger Torrent, called for a special meeting of the Catalan parliament tomorrow, to make Jordi Turull (fmr. government speaker) the new regional Catalan president.

It's expected to pass since everyone thinks CUP won't dare to oppose him. So tomorrow we'll have a new Catalan president, out of nowhere.

However apparently because of procedural stuff there's a short while between getting a president-elect and the president-elect taking possession. So it's entirely possible that Turull is sent to jail as president-elect, which means that he is inmediately disqualified and thus article 155 isn't lifted.

Catalan politicians never cease to amaze me
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tack50
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« Reply #1701 on: March 23, 2018, 02:49:56 pm »

Well, there have been more developments.

On the Cifuentes scandal thing not much unfortunately other than Cifuentes falling into lots of contradictions. I hope she doesn't get away with it but instead her contradictions force her to resign like Soria.

However the big development is in Catalonia.

Yesterday was the vote on Jordi Turull's candidacy for regional president. And in a surprising turn of events, CUP decided to abstain instead of voting in favour! This means that the vote failed, 64 yes, 65 no, 4 abstentions, 2 absent (Carles Puigdemont and Antoni Comín, both in Brussels).

Today the meeting with the judge happened, intended for the judge to revise 6 cases. However one of the ones who were supposed to be there, Marta Rovira (who was the head of ERC during the campaign since Junqueras was in jail), decided to self-exile herself in Switzerland!

So the remaining 5 were sent to prision, including Jordi Turull himself, under a very easy "risk of fleeing" charge. The other 4 were:

Former president of the Catalan parliament Carme Forcadell
Former regional minister "of foreign affairs" Raul Romeva
Former regional minister of territory Josep Rull
Former regional minister of labour Dolors Bassa

It seems that tomorrow's second round (which would have failed anyways) will have to be cancelled since Jordi Turull will be in jail. However this still counts as the start of the countdown to a new election. So if they don't get someone elected before the 22nd of May, there will be a new election called for the 15th of July. Yay! /s

And of course this means that Rajoy won't be able to pass a budget since PNV has said that they won't even negotiate until article 155 is lifted, which won't happen until there's a "regional government according to law".
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« Reply #1702 on: March 24, 2018, 04:23:53 am »
« Edited: March 24, 2018, 04:27:26 am by Velasco »

Yesterday was the vote on Jordi Turull's candidacy for regional president. And in a surprising turn of events, CUP decided to abstain instead of voting in favour! This means that the vote failed, 64 yes, 65 no, 4 abstentions, 2 absent (Carles Puigdemont and Antoni Comín, both in Brussels).

The CUP abstention on the Jordi Turull's investiture wasn't surprising at all. As it happened when JxCAT proposed the investiture of former ANC leader (now in jail) Jordi Sánchez, the CUP people said they won't support any candidate who does not follow the insurrectionary path to independence (disobey the Spanish state, implementation of the self-proclaimed "Republic of Catalonia"). The other reason to abstain is that Turull represents the old Convergència (linked to Jordi Pujol and corruption), that is to say he's not a candidate palatable for the CUP. Like them or not (I don't like them), they are always consistent with their statements. After the bad election results, the far-left separatist party is facing some internal turbulence.
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« Reply #1703 on: March 25, 2018, 07:20:00 am »

Puigdemont detained after crossing the border between Denmark and Germany.
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tack50
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« Reply #1704 on: March 28, 2018, 07:15:28 am »

Rajoy has finally presented his 2018 bugdet. Quite late but whatever.

He has also done a deal with Cs so that they support the budget.

However it is not expected to pass in its current form since PNV has said they won't even sit to negotiate anything until article 155 is lifted. As for the Canarians, CC has said that if everything goes well they will probably support it, while NC refuses to negotiate until PP has the support of PNV (they want to be the magic 176th MP)

Another possibility could be for PSOE to abstain, but I don't think that could be sold by Sánchez. It won't make the old guard love him and it would be a big betrayal of his base, who voted him on his "no is no" pledges.

Important measures included in the budget negotiation between PP and Cs are

Raising minimum and widow pensions by 2%
30-60€ tax cut for pensioners earning between 1000 and 1200 €
Negative fiscal credit for pensions between 600 and 1000€
Paternity leave to be made 1 week longer
1000€ help for parents with kids 0-3 years old
Salary compliment for 600 000 young people, to be paid with EU funds
500 million € for policemen and Guardia Civil to earn the same as their regional counterparts (mossos, ertzainza)
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tack50
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« Reply #1705 on: March 31, 2018, 03:15:01 pm »

We haven't had polls for a while, here's a new one:

Sigma Dos for El Mundo

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I guess we'll soon talk again about the "sorpasso"? XD
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tack50
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« Reply #1706 on: April 02, 2018, 03:03:33 pm »

Yet another new poll, this time from

Sociométrica for El Español

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2 consecutive polls with PSOE at less than 20%. Bad news for Pedro Sánchez.
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« Reply #1707 on: April 02, 2018, 03:42:05 pm »

What's with the mini Vox bump?
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tack50
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« Reply #1708 on: April 02, 2018, 05:54:53 pm »


It's actually a drop believe it or not! They were at 2% in November, 1.7% in January and now at 1.5%

I wouldn't trust the percentage much though, at least for small parties, just the seat count. 0.5% for CC for example is also somewhat suspicious IMO

Thing is, Sociometrica are the only ones asking for Vox (barely any pollsters ask for parties smaller than PNV or PDECat to begin with). So it's the only reference we will have until the EU parliment election I'd say.
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tack50
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« Reply #1709 on: April 04, 2018, 07:51:15 am »

It's a bit old, but there has been a corruption scandal affecting PSOE and Compromís in the Valencian community. Not to the scale of PP's Gurtel probably, but still will probably harm them quite a bit, PP and Cs will almos surely attack them on that.

We are starting to get some polls about the regional elections of 2019. Anyways, here's the Madrid poll

Sociométrica for El Español, Madrid regional election

5% threshold, 1 at large constituency

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With this result Cs would be the strongest party and could choose their coaltion partner between PP and PSOE. IU (if they run alone) would barely get over the threshold and make a comeback. Vox gets 3.4% which is under the threshold, but in a general election would give them 1 seat (then again this pollster is an outlier). Everyone down except Cs and IU

The Cifuentes scandal probably helped them a lot.
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tack50
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« Reply #1710 on: April 04, 2018, 05:04:14 pm »

And speaking about Madrid, regional president Cristina Cifuentes went today to the regional assembly to explain herself and her master's degree scandal. Her explanation was far from good.

And inmediately after the parliament session was over, PSOE inmediately said that they'll present a no confidence vote. Podemos has already said that they'll support it no matter what.

So now it's all about Cs, whether they side with PP and Cifuentes or with PSOE and kick her out, 1 year before the regional elections. Or maybe Cifuentes resigns anyways, remember that we already saw a very similar scenario unfold in Murcia last year.

Also, it would be quite ironic if Cifuentes is taken down by falsifying her master's degree, and her replacement being former eduaction minister and university professor Angel Gabilondo (PSOE's leader in Madrid) XD
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The Saint
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« Reply #1711 on: April 04, 2018, 06:19:12 pm »

Tack, have there been any regional polls from Valencia recently?
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tack50
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« Reply #1712 on: April 04, 2018, 06:41:50 pm »

Tack, have there been any regional polls from Valencia recently?

Not really. The newest polls are from September 2017. So more than 6 months old.

Still if you want them here they are, alongside even more outdated polls:

https://www.electograph.com/search/label/A_Val
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tack50
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« Reply #1713 on: April 05, 2018, 12:16:23 pm »

And Puigdemont has been freed! German justice has rejected to extradite Puigdemont for rebellion and has freed Puigdemont under a 75 000 € bail. He might still be extradited to Spain, as the corruption and public fund misappropiation charges have been accepted, but the rebellion charge was dismissed.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180405/442207871883/puigdemont-libre-descarta-rebelion.html

In any case good news for secessionists. Not sure if Puigdemont will try to flee but still.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1714 on: April 05, 2018, 12:35:02 pm »

And Puigdemont has been freed! German justice has rejected to extradite Puigdemont for rebellion and has freed Puigdemont under a 75 000 € bail. He might still be extradited to Spain, as the corruption and public fund misappropiation charges have been accepted, but the rebellion charge was dismissed.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180405/442207871883/puigdemont-libre-descarta-rebelion.html

In any case good news for secessionists. Not sure if Puigdemont will try to flee but still.

I don't think he can flee until his ruling is final. It's like if you are suspected of a crime, you are presented to a judged and then you wait the ruling in freedom. If you flee, that's proof of something.

Now, if he is extradite by corruption charges, wouldn't that be bad news for secessionists? I mean, they have already the Pujol case and if Puigdemont is trialed by, only, corruption wouldn't that drain out the idea that he was a political prisoner?
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tack50
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« Reply #1715 on: April 05, 2018, 12:56:39 pm »

Sure, he legally can't flee but there's nothing technically stopping him other than the fact that most countries would inmediately arrest him anyways.

As for corruption, the alleged "corruption" is the fact that he used public money to pay for the referendum. So no, secessionists won't care. I think the official charge is public fund misuse
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Mike88
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« Reply #1716 on: April 06, 2018, 11:47:13 am »

Castilla-la-Mancha poll from SYM Consulting:

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tack50
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« Reply #1717 on: April 07, 2018, 04:44:29 pm »

Metroscopia strikes again! 3 way tie for last place!

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Further details (vote transfers, evolution, approval ratings, some extra questions)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/04/06/media/1523031908_175487.html
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« Reply #1718 on: April 07, 2018, 08:57:35 pm »

We're not too far off from a poll with C's and Podemos first and second.
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tack50
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« Reply #1719 on: April 08, 2018, 05:10:56 am »

Also, for whoever asked for Valencia polls, apparently someone heard you and published one XD

It's a Podemos internal but whatever

Image Link

So, PSOE wins and can easily repeat the PSOE-Compromís-UP deal, while a PSOE-Cs deal falls short of a majority, and same with PP-Cs.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1720 on: April 08, 2018, 11:31:22 am »

Also, for whoever asked for Valencia polls, apparently someone heard you and published one XD

Cheesy

Thanks Smiley
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tack50
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« Reply #1721 on: April 12, 2018, 09:28:25 am »
« Edited: April 12, 2018, 01:39:31 pm by tack50 »

2 more new polls. First, the national one

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

Image Link

And now a regional poll for Madrid, just while PP and regional President Cristina Cifuentes are in the middle of the masters degree scandal

It's a Cs internal but still noteworthy

Image Link

Cs wins and gets to choose between PP and PSOE as their partner. IU makes a comeback and gets above the threshold. And a left wing government falls short.

And another internal for regional elections in Madrid, this time from PSOE

PSOE: 27.5%
Cs: 26.8%
PP: 26.3%
Podemos: 14.5%
IU: 2.5%

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3310846/0/encuesta-interna-psoe-ganaria-madrid-pp-pierde-cinco-puntos-caso-cifuentes/

Cs ends up as kingmaker.
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tack50
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« Reply #1722 on: April 20, 2018, 04:54:18 am »

We are getting some very weird candidates for the 2019 local elections.

First of all, PSOE asked the current mayor of Madrid, Manuela Carmena (Podemos) to be their candidate! Granted, Carmena is a moderate in Podemos and doesn't have great relations with the rest of the party but still, at this point PSOE is basically recognizing they don't have a good candidate in Madrid! They claim that it was an informal offer to recognize that she is doing a great job but still.

But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.
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tack50
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« Reply #1723 on: April 20, 2018, 05:11:12 am »

Also, Cs almost breaking 30% in one poll, while PSOE overtakes PP! (granted this is a good pollster for Cs, and to a lesser extent PSOE, but still)

Simple lógica poll

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Image Link
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« Reply #1724 on: April 20, 2018, 08:22:27 am »

But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.
In France any EU citizen can run and be elected to city/town councils, but the top job (mayor) can only go to a French citizen. Isn't there such type of restriction in Spain?
It would be historical moment for the EU if it happens...
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