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tack50
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« Reply #1725 on: April 20, 2018, 09:17:42 am »

But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.
In France any EU citizen can run and be elected to city/town councils, but the top job (mayor) can only go to a French citizen. Isn't there such type of restriction in Spain?
It would be historical moment for the EU if it happens...

Nope, no such restriction in Spain. There are very few examples but they do exist. A Belgian became mayor of a small Andalusian town in 2015 for example

https://www.elplural.com/2015/06/28/un-guiri-alcalde-de-un-pueblo-andaluz-por-ciudadanos

And as of 2009 there were 2 foreign mayors (1 French, one Belgian) and 85 foreign councillors. (Brits being a large plurality)

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2009/08/07/espana/1249643521.html

Granted I don't think Valls would become mayor even if Cs got a great result (most likely some sort of secessionists+Podemos coalition would win)

But yeah, if he did win and become mayor it would be huge news for the EU
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tack50
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« Reply #1726 on: April 22, 2018, 05:04:36 am »
« Edited: April 22, 2018, 07:28:27 am by tack50 »

And we've got some new polls.

GESOP for El Periódico de Catalunya (national poll)

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Celeste-Tel, regional elections in Madrid

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Top 3 all within the margin of error, Podemos not too far behind, particularly if IU joins them.

SyM consulting, regional elections in Valencia

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TSA for Canarias 7, regional elections in the Canary Islands

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As expected, most likely the La Gomera regionalist ASG will act as kingmaker.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1727 on: April 25, 2018, 08:01:44 am »

Cristina Cifuentes resigns as President of the Community of Madrid:

Cristina Cifuentes has resigned as President of the Community of Madrid not because of her master degree fiasco, but because of a video of her shoplifting in a supermarket in 2011.
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tack50
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« Reply #1728 on: April 28, 2018, 09:05:26 am »

#metoo has apparently arrived to Spain!

A bit of an introduction, a recient quite polemic gang rape case has caused a lot of protests since many people think the punishment was too lenient (9 years in jail, with one of the 3 judgest actually voting to clear them of all charges!)

In fact, they were cleared of actual rape, only found guilty of "sexual abuse" which carries a lesser punishment

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/26/protests-spain-five-men-cleared-of-teenagers-gang-rape-pamplona

This caused no es abuso, es violación (it's not abuse, it's rape), no is no and similar stuff to trend. And now #cuéntalo (tell it) is trending on twitter

http://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20180428/443093670148/cuentalo-la-manada-protesta-mujeres-twitter.html

I thought the feminist strikes and the like were a 1 off thing, but I guess they are here to stay.
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tack50
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« Reply #1729 on: April 29, 2018, 05:24:06 am »
« Edited: April 29, 2018, 05:27:39 am by tack50 »

PSOE internal for the Canary Islands regional elections

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If this is a PSOE internal it's an absolute disaster for them. Also for CC and really good for Cs! In fact it's very weird for an internal to have the party that asked for it so low and still being published.

Hell, the Canarias7 public poll was actually a lot more PSOE friendly than their own internals!

Metroscopia-El Pais for Madrid regional elections

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Futher information: https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/04/26/media/1524763200_673592.html

Vote transfers and approval ratings.

Great news for Cs and terrible news for PP. Keep in mind this was a poll done before Cifuentes resigned so it's already outdated but whatever.

Also, first time I've seen Vox mentioned on this pollster. Assuming they held 100% of their 2015 vote they'd get 2.6% of the vote. Well below the 5% threshold for the regional elections, but in a general election it would be close (they'd need 3%
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Mike88
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« Reply #1730 on: April 29, 2018, 02:25:45 pm »
« Edited: April 29, 2018, 02:29:21 pm by Mike88 »

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?
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tack50
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« Reply #1731 on: April 29, 2018, 03:42:09 pm »

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)
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tack50
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« Reply #1732 on: April 29, 2018, 03:54:27 pm »

Also, El País published an interesting study on the amount of women voters by party. Apparently Cs (which previously had a majority women electorate) is now the most masculine party!

Here are their results

Vote by party, for both men and women

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% of the party voters that are men/women

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So, by party, it seems that Cs and Podemos have somehow reversed. Cs had a majority female electorate and Podemos had a very masculinzed electorate. PP has always had an almost perfect 50-50 split. And PSOE is apparently the party of women, with 56% of PSOE voters being women!

Also, women make a larger percentage of undecideds and of people who don't plan on voting. Which is especially interesting since women actually did turn out more than men in 2016 (the electorate was 52% women in the 2015 election, not sure about 2016)
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Mike88
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« Reply #1733 on: April 29, 2018, 05:22:53 pm »

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)

I think C's would had a good chance of being the 1st party in Barcelona with a candidate from that city, after all they won by 4% over ERC in the 2017 elections, but Valls seems a risky bet. We'll see if he even runs, until 2019 a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

About the El País study, i always saw C's as the party of young male voters/middle age men, not young women curiously. Don't know if the "La Manada" case had an impact, but the reaction from Spanish women is quite interesting comapared to a similar situation we had in Portugal a few months ago. A few months ago, a judge from a Porto court ruled that a man, who had violently beaten his wife after finding out she was having an affair, should not receive a higher punishment because the adultery of  his wife "attempted against the dignity of men". To argue his decision, the judge used the outdated 1886 penal code and the bible. There was controversy in the media but in society overall nothing happened, which shows the different attitudes Portuguese and Spanish societies have. It's interesting.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1734 on: May 02, 2018, 02:42:16 am »

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)

I think C's would had a good chance of being the 1st party in Barcelona with a candidate from that city, after all they won by 4% over ERC in the 2017 elections, but Valls seems a risky bet. We'll see if he even runs, until 2019 a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

About the El País study, i always saw C's as the party of young male voters/middle age men, not young women curiously. Don't know if the "La Manada" case had an impact, but the reaction from Spanish women is quite interesting comapared to a similar situation we had in Portugal a few months ago. A few months ago, a judge from a Porto court ruled that a man, who had violently beaten his wife after finding out she was having an affair, should not receive a higher punishment because the adultery of  his wife "attempted against the dignity of men". To argue his decision, the judge used the outdated 1886 penal code and the bible. There was controversy in the media but in society overall nothing happened, which shows the different attitudes Portuguese and Spanish societies have. It's interesting.

I honestly think C's would be shooting themselves in the foot getting Valls in because the issues Barcelona is facing as a city (housing, overpopulation, tourism mismanagement, pollution) don't fit his profile and he even said he was considering it to refight the referendum at a local level. Even Garcia Albiol called this out as unwise and he's hardly an psephological authority on bringing national issues into local debates.

On the other hand if I'm anti-Colau and anti-seperatist, I can see how C's would be able to garner votes based on a solid no-nonsense platform of 'the PSOE governed for years, the nationalists can't be trusted, and Colau is incompetent.
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« Reply #1735 on: May 02, 2018, 08:00:37 am »

How is Colau seen nowadays anyway? I liked her when she came in, but I haven't really caught up with her beyond her getting twisted in knots due to flegs.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1736 on: May 02, 2018, 10:39:15 am »

How is Colau seen nowadays anyway? I liked her when she came in, but I haven't really caught up with her beyond her getting twisted in knots due to flegs.

If you have google translate on hand or can read spanish :

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20180104/erc-superaria-a-colau-en-las-municipales-segun-el-barometro-de-barcelona-6531160

Looks like she would keep the initial majority she formed.

This actually seems to contradict what I said :

Image Link

My understanding from Catalan friends though is that she is seen as somewhat of a dud. Remember all those Guardian/Vice articles about the Superilles in Poblenou that were going to make a hip district? The locals rebelled against that. Has the tourism issue improved? Ask any Catalan and they say it has not, because the only solution is having border control, so why protest anyway. Has the bloated housing market been cracked down upon? She might have tackled AirBnB but ultimately the Airbnb issue is hiding a bigger problem in major European cities, which is that housing in a European inner city/capital is seen as a safe investment, be it for people who just move to the periphery of the city, or Chinese businessmen/mafia wanting to hide their lunch money from the CPC (which is a real problem in Catalonia). And it is not seen as actual housing, for people to live in. In reality, the referendum was probably a welcome distraction.

 And yeah, Colau probably conducted herself better than anybody during the crisis, but it has probably polarised Catalan society enough for an ERC swing in places like Barceloneta (which we talked about previously). I just didnt think it would be replicated in local elections.  like tack says though we can't be sure until the campaign where people like Valls could be seriously exposed to real problems.
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tack50
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« Reply #1737 on: May 02, 2018, 06:41:12 pm »

How is Colau seen nowadays anyway? I liked her when she came in, but I haven't really caught up with her beyond her getting twisted in knots due to flegs.

I think she is seen as mediocre and as you said, getting twisted in knots because flegs.

The most recient thing I've heard about her is that she changed a street from "Admiral Cervera street" to "Pepe Rubianes street" (a comedian)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascual_Cervera_y_Topete
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepe_Rubianes

During her speech, she called Admiral Cervera a fascist, which makes no sense, mostly since he died in 1909, well before fascism was even invented. He was also a decent general I guess, who fought in the Spanish American war. PP and Cs obviously protested. The Spanish Navy was also unhappy.

I'd say of all the Podemos mayors it's the one I dislike the most. My favourite would probably be Carmena (Madrid).
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tack50
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« Reply #1738 on: May 02, 2018, 06:55:31 pm »

Also, quite a bit of news and polling. First of all, today (technically yesterday as I write this but whatever) was the 2nd of May, Madrid's regional holiday. And so several Madrid polls were done. Here's a summary of all recient Madrid polls

Image Link

We also got a poll from Valencia, a Compromís internal

Image Link

And as for news, 2 big ones:

First of all, Basque terrorist group ETA has finally announced its official dissolution. Surprisingly there hasn't been much reaction, mostly indifference and the government saying that there should be no concessions, the terrorists have lost and the like.

And also, I think Catalonia is getting closer to getting a government. Because of some quirks involving European arrest orders and Puigdemont's stay in jail, JxCat+ERC now have a plurality, without needing CUP to vote in favour (an abstention would be enough). And they seem to be getting closer to a deal which would put Elsa Artadi as regional president of Catalonia. She does have a good CV, a Harvard doctor apparently and has worked quite a bit in economics. She is currently JxCat's speaker in parliament. She would also be Catalonia's first woman regional president for all what's worth.

Time is ticking after all, they have to elect a regional president before like the 29th of May or so.
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tack50
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« Reply #1739 on: May 07, 2018, 02:03:54 pm »
« Edited: May 07, 2018, 02:06:56 pm by tack50 »

Electomanía published some very interesting maps about what if only certain age groups were allowed to vote. They don't add stuff we didn't know already (PP strong among the elderly, Podemos among the young), but they are still interesting

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The general pattern seems to be:

PP: Extremely strong among the elderly, but very weak among the young

Podemos: A reverse PP, extremely popular among the young, but very weak among the elderly, to the point where it would get IU-like results

Cs: Strong in all age groups except pensioners where it takes a sharp dip

PSOE: Surprisingly, also strong among all age groups even though it takes a dip among the young.
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tack50
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« Reply #1740 on: May 08, 2018, 05:57:48 am »

It's been a while since we last got some national polls, but finally we have one

CIS

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Seems like we are headed for a 4 way tie in the short run, with Cs' rise slowing down, PP on free fall, PSOE stagnant or slightly down and Podemos slightly up.

Further questions, party, age and income crosstabs here: http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2018/Documentacion_3210.html

We also got some regional polls

NueveCuatroUno for La Rioja regional elections

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3 way tie on top, Podemos down, the regionalist PR+ manages to get in after falling short for the first time ever in 2015. Cs would act as kingmaker.

Sigma Dos-Las Provincias for Valencian regional elections

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Whether the current government gets a majority or not would be a tossup, a PSOE-Cs government also a possibility
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« Reply #1741 on: May 10, 2018, 04:46:36 pm »

Apparently, the Catalan parliament will vote in the next days for Quim Torra as president of the regional govermnent. No idea who he was until today, but the opposition complains about his "sectarian" profile, and he has stated that Puigdemont remains the "legitimate president of the country".
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tack50
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« Reply #1742 on: May 11, 2018, 06:18:24 am »

Apparently, the Catalan parliament will vote in the next days for Quim Torra as president of the regional govermnent. No idea who he was until today, but the opposition complains about his "sectarian" profile, and he has stated that Puigdemont remains the "legitimate president of the country".

He apparently was the former president of Omnium for a short while. But yeah, I didn't know who he was either. And much of the complaint about his sectarian profile is because he is a hardliner on independence. He has also had several anti-Spanish xenophobic tweets in the past like:

"Spaniards only know how to exploit"
"We've been under a Spanish occupation since 1714"
"If we stay here for a couple more years we will end as crazy as the Spaniards"
"Spaniards in Catalonia are like energy, they don't disappear, they transform"
"Shame is a word Spaniards have deleted from their vocabulary"
"Listening to Albert Rivera speak about morals is like listening to Spaniards talk about democracy"
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« Reply #1743 on: May 11, 2018, 12:41:07 pm »

Which is funny, because 99% of the world considers him Spanish.
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« Reply #1744 on: May 12, 2018, 02:49:57 am »

Which is funny, because 99% of the world considers him Spanish.

99% of the world are ignorant about lots of things.
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« Reply #1745 on: May 12, 2018, 08:45:28 am »

New poll from Catalonia


Support from independence climbs to 48%

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The soberanists maintain their majority due to an historical result of la CUP (11 deputies, up from 4 in 2017), also Catalunya en Comu gets good results (11 from Cool.

Image Link

Good results for the soberanists (although not that good for the govern), but a better one for the left.
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« Reply #1746 on: May 12, 2018, 10:12:37 am »

Why is CUP rising so much?
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tack50
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« Reply #1747 on: May 12, 2018, 06:30:00 pm »
« Edited: May 12, 2018, 06:39:51 pm by tack50 »


No idea. Then again it might be just an outlier. Another poll by a different pollster showed CUP exactly where they were in the last election (4%, 4 seats), so I guess they are really somewhere in between. No idea why they are rising though? Maybe the polarized campaign saw CUP leaning voters vote for Puigdemont and now they are coming home?

https://www.electograph.com/2018/04/cataluna-elecciones-autonomicas.html

Also, here's a poll for the Barcelona town hall. Colau goes from winning the election all the way to 4th place (granted, withing the margin of error but still). Meanwhile, PP fails to get a seat for the first time since 1979 and gets literally it's worst result ever.

Image Link
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1748 on: May 13, 2018, 02:11:07 am »

Well CUP are asking their membership whether to vote Porra in as president so they are holding the "process" by the balls...again. We know how this finishes though.
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« Reply #1749 on: May 13, 2018, 10:50:20 am »

Well, they decided to abstain, so Torra is going to be the new President
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