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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 260376 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #1775 on: May 28, 2018, 07:13:27 am »

Rivera tells EL Mundo that fefore discussing possible support for Socialist party’s no-confidence motion against Rajoy, it would be necessary to discuss other issues including extension of direct rule of central government in Catalonia. He said it is also key to guarantee that budget bill is passed in Senate
Once those two issues are guaranteed, then Rajoy should call elections.  Should Rajoy refuse to call elections, Ciudadanos will demand Socialists withdraw their motion and submit a new joint non-confidence motion aimed at calling elections.

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« Reply #1776 on: May 28, 2018, 10:05:00 am »

What are the basic differences between PP and Ciudanos voters? I mean, after CC spilled out of Barcelona and some bigger cities.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2018, 10:08:06 am by Ethelberth »Logged
tack50
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« Reply #1777 on: May 28, 2018, 10:09:21 am »


Thanks for the answer, it's pretty amazing that party, I think it's by far the most politically successful (and skillful) of Spanish politics (although I hate their approach to politics).

Although I disagree on PdCat, from what I read, although some parts of JuntsxCat (the Puigdemont faction) wouldn't vote for Sanchez, the people from PdCat who are in Spanish congress don't have too much problems supporting the no confidence motion. Probably they could demand some symbolic thing (maybe apologizing to Torrant about calling him Nazi or some promise about the 155) but they could not put too much pressure on Sanchez.

So you think the no confidence motion will not pass?

Yes, there's quite a split between the Puigdemont linked independents and PDECat proper inside PDECat. And I guess ERC is also somewhat divided. But I don't think Sánchez even wants symbolic concessions.

I personally think there's roughly a 50-50 chance of the no confidence vote being successful.Really the only locked votes thus far are:

Yes

PSOE: 84 (duh)
Podemos: 67
Compromís: 4
NCa: 1

No

PP: 134 (duh)
UPN: 2
Foro Asturias: 1
CC: 1

So it's all in the hands of Cs, PNV and to a lesser extent the Catalan nationalists. Bildu is irrelevant. And they seem to want opposite things; PNV is scared of a new election as Cs will be the likely winner and they are a lot harsher on peripheral nationalism than PP and Rajoy while Cs wants one.
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« Reply #1778 on: May 28, 2018, 10:21:52 am »

What are the basic differences between PP and Ciudanos voters? I mean, after CC spilled out of Barcelona and some bigger cities.

According to the latest CIS poll (April 2018):

Cs performs much better among men than women, PP performs slightly better among women than men

PP voters skew very old, Cs voters are more dispersed by age but with a peak in the middle age vote

PP performs better in rural areas, Cs performs better in suburbs and urban areas

PP performs better among people with no studies or only primary school (which then again, skew older so it's probably a function of age). Cs performs better among people with higher studies.

PP performs better than Cs among retired people, "stay at home mums" and ties among farm workers. Cs performs better than PP among all other socioeconomic groups, but the best results for Cs are among small businessmen, administrative and service personnel, and students

PP beats Cs in the "Old middle class" vote. However, Cs wins easily among the "upper class" and the "new middle class" vote.
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« Reply #1779 on: May 28, 2018, 05:49:38 pm »

The debate for the motion of no confidence is set for May 31st and June 1st.
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« Reply #1780 on: May 30, 2018, 05:53:11 am »

Apparently Iglesias is planning to submit his own no confidence motion if Sánchez’s fails, basically a Cs-style motion with a figurehead president and immediate elections. Hopefully he’ll get Cs and the PSOE on board with it (but definitely not the PNV). https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-dispuesto-impulsar-elecciones-PSOE_0_776572979.amp.html
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« Reply #1781 on: May 30, 2018, 09:29:02 am »



Entirely in the field post-Confidence motions.
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« Reply #1782 on: May 30, 2018, 09:48:16 am »

Is it likely that Cs's lead declines during the campaign if a new general election is called?
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« Reply #1783 on: May 30, 2018, 11:33:13 am »

Way too hard to tell. Cs' 2015 campaign was a trainwreck. 2016 was better but still not good.

So far it seems that Cs is bad at running campaigns. However their 2017 Catalan election campaign was really good, basically rallying all unionists behind them. But a Catalan election is very different from a general election.

In my opinion trying to predict how the campaign will go is impossible.
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« Reply #1784 on: May 30, 2018, 03:27:05 pm »

I can't think of many other campaigns with so much evidence that four parties vied for first place. Maybe the last French first round?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1785 on: May 31, 2018, 05:35:35 am »

Pedro Sánchez: "Resign, Mr Rajoy. Resign and this motion ends here and now (...) Your time is over"
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« Reply #1786 on: May 31, 2018, 07:11:59 am »

What are the basic differences between PP and Ciudanos voters? I mean, after CC spilled out of Barcelona and some bigger cities.

According to the latest CIS poll (April 2018):

Cs performs much better among men than women, PP performs slightly better among women than men

PP voters skew very old, Cs voters are more dispersed by age but with a peak in the middle age vote

PP performs better in rural areas, Cs performs better in suburbs and urban areas

PP performs better among people with no studies or only primary school (which then again, skew older so it's probably a function of age). Cs performs better among people with higher studies.

PP performs better than Cs among retired people, "stay at home mums" and ties among farm workers. Cs performs better than PP among all other socioeconomic groups, but the best results for Cs are among small businessmen, administrative and service personnel, and students

PP beats Cs in the "Old middle class" vote. However, Cs wins easily among the "upper class" and the "new middle class" vote.

So basically, PP is party for Opus Dei members and Ciudanos for Real Madrid fans.
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« Reply #1787 on: May 31, 2018, 07:15:36 am »

Why does PP do better among women?
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« Reply #1788 on: May 31, 2018, 07:24:37 am »

The dominant impression is either Rajoy resigns today (and calls elections) or the PNV will vote "yes" tomorrow.

Unsurprisingly Cs priority is not ousting Rajoy and the corrupt PP. Rather electioneering and confronting Catalan separatists.
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« Reply #1789 on: May 31, 2018, 07:28:08 am »

The Cs doing well right now evokes (or at least reminds of) the spirit of pre-2011 UK, when the Lib Dems did well off the back of the 'none-of-the-above' vote.
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« Reply #1790 on: May 31, 2018, 07:35:25 am »

The Cs doing well right now evokes (or at least reminds of) the spirit of pre-2011 UK, when the Lib Dems did well off the back of the 'none-of-the-above' vote.

Well, C's isn't really a 'none' vote, it is a right-centrist vote that plays upon the fears of Catalan separatism. C's wants an election right now because Catalonia will be the dominant issue of the campaign, at least at the start, and C's completely owns the Catalan issue inside old Castille. why C's has plenty of Liberal issues on their platform, Catalonia is their Trump card that C's wants to ride all the way to victory.
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« Reply #1791 on: May 31, 2018, 08:46:42 am »

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« Reply #1792 on: May 31, 2018, 08:53:38 am »

Why does PP do better among women?


Maybe this is because women are living longer than man and PP is generally party of the elderly people?
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jaichind
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« Reply #1793 on: May 31, 2018, 09:00:54 am »

Socialists Have the Votes to Oust Rajoy, TVE Says: Spain Update
(Bloomberg) -- Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces a decisive debate in parliament from Thursday as the Socialist opposition seeks the votes to oust him.
Lawmakers are due to vote on the no-confidence motion Friday and people close to the negotiations have been signaling that Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez is likely to get the support he needs to replace Rajoy as prime minister.
Read More: Rajoy or Not, Spain Bonds Not the Same Kettle of Fish as Italy
Sanchez already has the backing of the anti-establishment group Podemos and Esquerra Republicana, one of two Catalan separatist groups. He needs the other Catalan party, PdeCat, and the Basque Nationalists to clinch it.
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« Reply #1794 on: May 31, 2018, 09:02:39 am »

The dominant impression is either Rajoy resigns today (and calls elections) or the PNV will vote "yes" tomorrow.

Unsurprisingly Cs priority is not ousting Rajoy and the corrupt PP. Rather electioneering and confronting Catalan separatists.

Rajoy can't call an election if he resigns. If he resigns, it's as if the election happened yesterday. So, consultations with the king, candidate (almost certainly Sánchez) and investiture vote (which this time only requires a simple majority, unlike a no confidence vote). If 2 months after the first vote there is still no PM, new snap election automatically called.

In the mean time, either PM Rajoy or deputy PM Soraya will be acting PM, but neither would have the ability to call an election.

I'm not sure which of the 2 would be the acting PM. Back in 1981 and the 23F coup, Suárez was the acting PM during the coup, not deputy PM Gutiérrez Mellado; until Calvo-Sotelo was elected. However according to some Soraya would be acting PM instead of Rajoy.
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« Reply #1795 on: May 31, 2018, 09:08:51 am »

PNV will support the no confidence vote. So unless Rajoy has 5-6 moles inside PSOE, or PDECat or Podemos (which has an internal consultation ongoing though I seriously doubt the Podemos base will vote to keep Rajoy) unexpectedly vote no, it's over.

Only thing which could stop this now is Rajoy resigning. And at best it would mean an election on late August or early September. And at worst Sánchez still PM, but in like 2 weeks instead of tomorrow.
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« Reply #1796 on: May 31, 2018, 09:12:01 am »

Astonishing that Rajoy lasted so long, despite seemingly never being hugely popular and walking through several crises/scandals that would have caused most leaders to be overthrown several times over.
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« Reply #1797 on: May 31, 2018, 10:35:39 am »

Happily the time of Mariano Rajoy is over.

Congress of Deputies before the no-confidence vote. The Left, Basque and Catalan nationalists and a Canarian regionalist in favour. PP, its regional allies (UPN and Foro) and Cs against, The Canary Coalition deputy abstains.


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« Reply #1798 on: May 31, 2018, 11:17:17 am »

Will he resign as PP leader as well?
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« Reply #1799 on: May 31, 2018, 11:38:29 am »

Will he resign as PP leader as well?

Mariano Rajoy has dissapeared. The motion debate is still going on (ERC dpokesman on stage right now), but the PM is not on his seat. Apparently Rajoy won't resign and will be ousted in tomorrow's vote. Nobody knows of he's going to stay as PP leader. Rajoy must be facing a personal drama, analysts say. He thinks the Court ruling doesn't  affect him. He lost the sense of reality. Hybris.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2018, 11:42:46 am by Velasco »Logged

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