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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 287710 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #1800 on: May 31, 2018, 12:03:29 pm »
« edited: May 31, 2018, 12:08:24 pm by Velasco »

Albert Rivera on stage, ostensibly angry at Mariano Rajoy's absence. PM should have taken control, but now is dissapeared and Rivera is left alone defending his vote against the motion. Cs leader says that PNV has been "disloyal". Now Rivera attacks Sánchez. Rivera, guardian of the integrity of Spain. Misplaced by the course of events, he sets up borders with "populists" and"separatists", that is to say the Sánchez's "companions of journey".
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Velasco
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« Reply #1801 on: May 31, 2018, 12:06:25 pm »

So while the vote will succeed, there has to be new elections right? This coalition that is ousting Rajoy is even more built of chaos then the current 'government.'

Of course there will be a fresh election. The question is when.
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mgop
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« Reply #1802 on: May 31, 2018, 12:06:49 pm »

ciudadanos are over. they voted for rajoy and against elections. their politics represent everything wrong with this world and they are typical establishment party.
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tack50
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« Reply #1803 on: May 31, 2018, 12:12:57 pm »

So while the vote will succeed, there has to be new elections right? This coalition that is ousting Rajoy is even more built of chaos then the current 'government.'

Legally no, Sánchez could stay until Summer 2020. In practical terms yes, the coalition is very unstable. I'd expect a new election either this winter (late October) or possibly next summer after the EU ones.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1804 on: May 31, 2018, 12:23:36 pm »

Pedro Sánchez acts as the virtual PM, while Rivera looks like the virtual leader of the opposition. Sánchez is not the best of oatliamentarians, but today he found inspiration against Rajoy and Rivera.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1805 on: May 31, 2018, 12:51:50 pm »

Pedro Sánchez acts as the virtual PM, while Rivera looks like the virtual leader of the opposition. Sánchez is not the best of oatliamentarians, but today he found inspiration against Rajoy and Rivera.
What will be the next coalition?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1806 on: May 31, 2018, 01:24:30 pm »
« Edited: May 31, 2018, 01:28:15 pm by Velasco »

Likely there will be a PSOE minority government and not a coalition government. Pedro Sánchez will govern alone for some months, seeking the support of Podemos and  peripheral nationalists. The budget agreed by PP, Cs, PNV and Canarian regionalist will be in force... Unless PP makes use of its majority in the Senate and devolves the Budget total the Congress of Deputies (maybe that won't happening, because the negotiation was hard for PP). It will be very complicated, nearly impossible to sustain a government backed by only 84 Deputies for a long time. Eventully Sánchez will call elections within several months. Maybe he will try to implement some measures of "cleansing" or "regeneration" before, or to implement the rejection to some controversial laws voted by the parliament and vetoed by decree of Rajoy's government.
t
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #1807 on: May 31, 2018, 08:54:45 pm »

ciudadanos are over. they voted for rajoy and against elections. their politics represent everything wrong with this world and they are typical establishment party.
Congratulations Prime Minister Sanchez.

Knew Ciudadanos were frauds from the moment the lost Osmond brother Rivera reared his head.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1808 on: June 01, 2018, 03:09:26 am »

So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1809 on: June 01, 2018, 04:15:58 am »
« Edited: June 01, 2018, 04:53:07 am by coloniac »

So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.

Sanchez doesn't win from this that much. He wanted to be PM desperately but now he is walking on a tightrope and his only shot at PM is going to be his attempt to negotiate a new constitution with his seperatist "allies" in the Congress on one side and the PP in the Senate on the other. Its simply unfeasible and he will fail, even if he is saying the right things. There is a reason Rajoy did not resign and call elections : the PP want Sanchez and the PSOE to fail first.

Rivera probably has the best cards to play but he made a major mistake supporting Rajoy rather than the motion to censor him. For all the (ironic) "Catalufo" schtick he gets from populares, it is a classic example of Rivera not seeing the bigger political picture and thinking the world revolves around Catalonia. Sanchez schooled him yesterday in the debate. If it does go to elections he might be the big winner but he is still capable of making the campaign a referendum about Catalonia again, and that may only work in Catalonia.

As long as Iglesias is head of Podemos people will reference his new house and he will lose the argument. It happened again just this morning. Its a shame, because Podemos are the ones bringing up real problems in Spanish society (disposable contracts worse than almost anywhere in Europe, an unskilled generation staying and a skilled one leaving, housing bubbles forming up again and the incestuous relationship between the banks and the politicians looking for funds for their new "projects") rather than nationalist pissing contests.

I guess the big winner is Feijoo, the Galician minister who will prbably next PP leader. PP seem to be immune to corruption scandals and he will likely come across as the most mature next to Rivera, Sanchez and Iglesias. And the Catalan nationalists who will recuperate their Govern powers at the very least. Then I fear there will be another Vox surge.


EDIT : and the obvious big winner, the PNV and the Basque COuntry as a whole : http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180601/443973609409/mocion-censura-pnv-aitor-esteban.html
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tack50
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« Reply #1810 on: June 01, 2018, 05:47:25 am »
« Edited: June 01, 2018, 06:01:58 am by tack50 »

It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Some somewhat interesting sideffects:

Mariano Rajoy becomes the 3rd shortest lived PM after the 2 UCD prime minsters (Adolfo Suárez, Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo).

Similarly, Sánchez becomes the 1st PM to get there via no confidence vote (duh) and the 2nd "unelected" PM (after Calvo Sotelo).

Sánchez being elected also means that (at least for now) there will still be a large EU country with a left of center government. Had the vote failed, the largest EU country with a left of center government would have been Portugal (10.3 million).

If using US-style generations, Pedro Sánchez would be the first Gen X Prime minister (born 1972).
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« Reply #1811 on: June 01, 2018, 05:52:02 am »

It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Is that roll call procedure only for special occasions like this, or does parliament really not have electronic voting?
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tack50
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« Reply #1812 on: June 01, 2018, 06:03:08 am »

It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Is that roll call procedure only for special occasions like this, or does parliament really not have electronic voting?

It does have electronic voting, however the roll call is apparently used in special occasions like this one, or like when electing a PM.

Similarly, secret ballots are used when electing the Congress president.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1813 on: June 01, 2018, 06:16:01 am »

Is there any chance he calls a new election?

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tack50
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« Reply #1814 on: June 01, 2018, 06:30:25 am »

Is there any chance he calls a new election?



In the very short term? (ie days or weeks). Probably not. In fact one of the promises he made was that he would call an election at some point, but not inmediately.

There's no way Sánchez is lasting until 2020 though. I'd say the next election will probably be in like Autumn 2019 at the latest.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1815 on: June 01, 2018, 07:10:22 am »
« Edited: June 01, 2018, 08:37:49 am by Velasco »

So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.

It's uncertain, uncharted territory. Pedro Sánchez is playing a risky game and by the moment he's winning. He had to play the card of the no-confidence motion for two reasons: 1) moral imperative 2) PSOE desperately needs to pull itself out of irrelevance. Let's remember that in the PSOE leadership contest Mr Sánchez was reelected on a leftist platform not so far from Podemos, including the acceptance of the multinational character of Spain ("estado plurinacional"). The notion of multinationality ("plurinacionalidad") is very controversial: it is disgusting not only for PP and Cs, but for many socialists aligned with regional 'barons' like Susana Díaz or representatives of the PSOE's 'Old Senate' like former Deputy PM Alfonso Guerra. Notice that Díaz and Guerra are from Andalusia, the main socialist stronghold in Spain. However, events in Catalonia have forced the PSOE to keep the  idea of the "multinationality" in a drawer. Given the gravity of the situation created by the September and October events which ended in the unilateral declaration of independence and the imposition of direct rule by the central government (article 155), Pedro Sanchez was left with no option but to support Rajoy and the reestablishment of the 'constitutional order' in Catalonia. The speech of king Felipe days after the October 1 illegal referendum was key in calling PSOE to "order". By the moment that Pedro Sánchez regained the PSOE leadership his main obsession was Podemos. Since the Catalan crisis intensified past year and Cs started booming in opinion polls as a consequence, his nightmares are tinted in orange.

The motion succeed because the support of Catalan nationalists forced PNV to make a decision. PNV voted in favour for two reasons: 1) public opinion in the Basque Country  2) fear of a snap election that would bring Cs to power. Albert Rivera is like Satan for Basque nationalists, for obvious reasons. Cs is fiercely opposed to the special tax system of the Basque Country, deemed as a privilege. "Free and Equal!*" claims Rivera. Neither PSOE nor PNV want immediate elections. On the other hand, the Catalan government is about to start functioning again once the "supremacist" premier Quim Torra has appointed regional ministers without legal problems. Pedro Sánchez made no concessions to Catalan separatists during the motion debate, but he said that he will meet Torra, who has been called "racist" by Pedro Sánchez due to some abominable expressions the Puigdemont's "vicarious" president used in old articles or tweets. One could say that regardless differences and the lack of personal affinity, institutional dialogue must be recovered at all costs.

Needless to say the political situation looks terribly complicated and future developments unpredictable.

*"Libres e Iguales" is the name of a platform led by former PP deputy Cayetana Älvarez de Toledo, known by her hardline stances on the Catalan question and linked to José María Aznar and the FAES foundation.

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« Reply #1816 on: June 01, 2018, 07:17:27 am »

Will be curious to see what the polls shows in response to this.  I would imagine a surge of support for Cs.
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« Reply #1817 on: June 01, 2018, 09:57:45 am »

None of the parties who voted for the no-confidence want elections right now, the PSOE and Podemos are too low in the polls, and Basques and Catalans are afraid of a Cs victory. So I assume a PSOE government can survive until the first big obstacle  (the 2019 budget for example).
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Velasco
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« Reply #1818 on: June 01, 2018, 09:58:44 am »

If elections were to be hold today, I would vote PSOE. Tomorrow I don't know, but I feel a lot of gratitude right now. Rajoy is gone. Thank you, Mr Sánchez.

These are the measures Pedro Sánchez wants to implement (in Spanish)

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/programa-Sanchez-medidas-adoptara-presidencia_0_777273218.html

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« Reply #1819 on: June 01, 2018, 10:29:29 am »

Sánchez being elected also means that (at least for now) there will still be a large EU country with a left of center government. Had the vote failed, the largest EU country with a left of center government would have been Portugal (10.3 million).

Romania is bigger.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1820 on: June 01, 2018, 10:40:39 am »

I assume we’ll see Cs suffer in terms of polling numbers because a) it’s likely to happen after riding high for so long and b) chances are some will punish them for not voting for the motion.

Also, I would assume Sanchez will wait until PSOE’s polling numbers rise (which there is a chance of now that they’re in govt) to call a new election.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1821 on: June 01, 2018, 02:31:30 pm »

I assume we’ll see Cs suffer in terms of polling numbers because a) it’s likely to happen after riding high for so long and b) chances are some will punish them for not voting for the motion.

Also, I would assume Sanchez will wait until PSOE’s polling numbers rise (which there is a chance of now that they’re in govt) to call a new election.

Depends on the region. His poll numbers might rise in Catalonia for being the moderate hero who engaged in dialogue. Andalucia on the other hand, after seeing the Basque country (the third richest community) get a special hand out...
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Mike88
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« Reply #1822 on: June 01, 2018, 05:39:58 pm »
« Edited: June 01, 2018, 05:43:12 pm by Mike88 »

What a mess Spain is in....

I think Sanchéz will find himself whitout any real power. First, he will govern with the budget, which is the center piece of every governmental agenda, approved by PP, C's, PNV and that his party voted against. UP and other parties have already sent a motion against the budget to the Senate. Awkward. Then, his coalition is really shaky, to say the least. Mixing UP, the Catalan independents plus the PNV, a center-right regionalist party, in the same bag, well... it's really a Frankenstein coalition. Until October, Sanchéz will probably hold on but then you have the negotiations for the 2019 budget, and how can five parties with completely different agendas agree on a common budget? Yes, Rajoy had to go. He's time was up, but for someone who had survived so many times, he thought he was immortal. Well, no one is, especially Rajoy because he made his own bed, so to say. But now, Spain switched from a lame duck PP minority government to a lame duck PSOE super-tiny minority government. Seriously, even Costa's PS has more MPs than PSOE, and they aren't the biggest party in the Portuguese Parliament.

My guess is that elections will still be held this year, by November or December. January 2019 the latest. We'll see.
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #1823 on: June 01, 2018, 07:59:56 pm »

Sanchez says he intends to serve the balance of the parliamentary term, but yeah that looks next to impossible. But if he does somehow pull it off he'd surely go down as one of the most skilled European politicians of our time. He already managed to regain leadership of the party he led to its worst result ever against some very notable rivals and then managed to assemble enough support to become PM while having less than a quarter of seats in Parliament, so who knows...
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Velasco
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« Reply #1824 on: June 02, 2018, 01:50:50 am »
« Edited: June 02, 2018, 01:54:11 am by Velasco »

What a mess Spain is in....

I think Sanchéz will find himself whitout any real power. First, he will govern with the budget, which is the center piece of every governmental agenda, approved by PP, C's, PNV and that his party voted against. UP and other parties have already sent a motion against the budget to the Senate. Awkward. Then, his coalition is really shaky, to say the least. Mixing UP, the Catalan independents plus the PNV, a center-right regionalist party, in the same bag, well... it's really a Frankenstein coalition (...)

I understand your point of view and it's possible that I could agree with you on certain points, at least to some extent. As I said before, the situation is extremely complicated and prospects very uncertain. It's true that a government supported by less than 1/4 of the parliament is going to be very fragile. Also, it's true that the coalition supporting the no-confidence motion is very heterogeneous. However, I dislike the expression "Frankenstein coalition". It has been used by PP and Cs, as well by Madrid newspapers in order to question the legitimacy of the motion. When they are not conservative papers that support PP with various degrees of bigotry (all the papers that have used the word "Frankenstein"), they are rooting for Cs (case of El País).

Pedro Sánchez asked Rajoy to resign during the motion debate, but the ousted PM refused because it would have implied to accept his political responsibility in the PP corruption scheme. I think the ruling makes clear that Rajoy lied when he testified before the Court, as well establishes that Rajoy and other PP leaders received bonus payments from former treasurer Bárcenas (now convicted). Rivera, on the other hand, asked Rajoy to resign and asked Pedro Sánchez to withdraw his motion in order to put an "instrumental candidate" who called a snap election. I think Rajoy had every right to refuse, even though I find his attitude deplorable and morally reprehensible. Also, Albert Rivera has every right to demand Sánchez to do whatever he wishes. However, Cs lacks the strength to impose the political agenda because its good poll showing doesn't give seats in parliament. In case Rajoy had resigned, the course of events would have led to new elections. He refused and the motion followed its course. Pedro Sánchez has every right to make his attempt, even though governing is going to be a very difficult task. I'd say that the only thing that could bring the heterogeneous coalition together is the current opinion polling, which places Cs as the inevitable coalition partner in any government formation (either PP-Cs, PSOE-Cs or vice-cersa). Personally I don't want to see Rivera in government, so I'll send Sánchez my best wishes.

On a side note, I think the current government in Denmark is backed by 30% of parliament. I'm not implying that the political situations are remotely comparable. Denmark looks much more stable right now. However, minority governments are not uncommon in Europe.
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