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Velasco
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« Reply #1950 on: August 16, 2018, 02:45:10 am »

Celeste-Tel / el diario.es

PSOE 28% 111-114 seats
PP 25.5% 101-104 Sears
Cs 19.4% 58-60 Sears
UP 17.3% 48-53 seats
ERC 3% 11-12 seats
PDeCAT 1.6% 6 seats
EAJ-PNV 1.1% 5 seats
EH-Bildu 0.9% 3 seats
CC-PNC 0.3% 1 seat

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Encuesta-electoral-Celeste-Tel-agosto_0_803170056.html
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1951 on: August 16, 2018, 09:53:30 am »

Interesting, so a leftwing coalition or minority government seems possible.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1952 on: August 16, 2018, 10:49:24 am »
« Edited: August 16, 2018, 01:36:59 pm by Velasco »

Interesting, so a leftwing coalition or minority government seems possible.

It's possible providing that Catalan and Basque nationalists allow the investiture of Pedro Sanchez. Poll figures show a virtual tie between the Left and the Right, both in terms of vote percentage and seats. Peripheral nationalists hold the balance of power. The main difference between this poll and the CIS is the vote estimation for the PP (25.5% to 20.4%). It might be the 'Casado effect', but maybe the PP-Cs combined estimation was too low in the CIS. The PSOE-UP combined figures are around 45% in both polls.
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tack50
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« Reply #1953 on: August 16, 2018, 12:03:55 pm »

Interesting, so a leftwing coalition or minority government seems possible.

Well, PSOE-UP-PNV only add up to 173 in their highest estimation. So it's within the margin of error but it's also an upset.

Of course PSOE-UP-ERC(-PNV) would indeed get a majority but I don't know if ERC would be willing to support that. Then again in Catalonia it seems that ERC is slowly becoming the "moderate" party and PDECat the radical one.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1954 on: August 16, 2018, 01:35:12 pm »

In case PSOE and UP win more seats than PP and Cs, Pedro Sanchez could be elected without a majority in a second vote providing that Catalan and Basque nationalists abstain. Remember that Rajoy won the investiture in 2016 with only 170 votes of 350, thanks to the abstention of a majority of PSOE MPs. First investiture vote requires absolute majority (176 seats); second investiture vote requires simple majority (more affirmative than negative votes).
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tack50
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« Reply #1955 on: August 16, 2018, 06:05:23 pm »

In case PSOE and UP win more seats than PP and Cs, Pedro Sanchez could be elected without a majority in a second vote providing that Catalan and Basque nationalists abstain. Remember that Rajoy won the investiture in 2016 with only 170 votes of 350, thanks to the abstention of a majority of PSOE MPs. First investiture vote requires absolute majority (176 seats); second investiture vote requires simple majority (more affirmative than negative votes).

Sure, but remember that back in 2015 PSOE+Pod+IU had 161 seats while PP+Cs had 163.

If what you say were true, in theory Sánchez should have become PM back in 2015; I don't think a "yes" vote from PNV would have been that hard to get.

If PSOE and UP win more seats than PP+Cs (or even slightly less, but with PNV support) it's all up to the Catalan nationalists again.
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« Reply #1956 on: August 17, 2018, 09:07:56 am »

Is there any reason why PSOE and C couldn't form a centre-left coalition and put both PP and UP in opposition along with all the regional parties?
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« Reply #1957 on: August 17, 2018, 09:11:49 am »

Is there any reason why PSOE and C couldn't form a centre-left coalition and put both PP and UP in opposition along with all the regional parties?

I think it is possible, but others don't. Either way, if the polls are accurate we are now right back where we started pre-Catalonia, a chaotic makeup that depends upon the minors for government. Barring sudden changes during the campaign, Spain could just be trading chaos for chaos.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1958 on: August 17, 2018, 09:58:31 am »



Sure, but remember that back in 2015 PSOE+Pod+IU had 161 seats while PP+Cs had 163.

If what you say were true, in theory Sánchez should have become PM back in 2015; I don't think a "yes" vote from PNV would have been that hard to get.

If PSOE and UP win more seats than PP+Cs (or even slightly less, but with PNV support) it's all up to the Catalan nationalists again.

Pedro Sánchez wanted to make a deal with Podemos and peripheral nationalists, according to his own statements after he was ousted from leadership by the 'old guard' and the 'barons'. He couldn't do so because, after the 2015 elections, the PSOE Federal Executive Committee banned explicitly any attempt to make arrangements with Catalan separatist parties and banned in practice any arrangement with Podemos (Pablo Iglesias was very arrogant too, but that's a parallel issue). Given that he had the hands tied by his party in what regards the Catalan parties, Pedro Sánchez tried unsuccessfully to arm a "coalition of change" with Podemos and Cs. Purples and oranges crossed vetoes between them. Meanwhile Pedro Sánchez and his team forged an agreement with Cs and tried that at least Podemos abstained, but the Pablo Iglesias party deemed that deal unacceptable.

Is there any reason why PSOE and C couldn't form a centre-left coalition and put both PP and UP in opposition along with all the regional parties?

I have tried to explain before that Cs has shifted to the right, especially after the crisis in Catalonia intensified past year. CIS surveys used to place Cs in the centre or the centre-right, scoring 5.5 on the ideological numerical scale (0-10 from left to right). Currently Cs is scoring 7 on the same scale, only one point less than PP. Citizens perceptions correspond with Cs stances indistinguishable from PP on issues like Catalonia, immigration or economic policy. The main difference between Casado and Rivera lies on the social conservatism of the PP leader. The tone of Cs leader Albert Rivera is very tough in criticizing the Pedro Sánchez government. Unless the tone, the turn to the right and the radical opposition to any kind of dialogue with Catalan separatists are reversed, I see very complicated that PSOE and Cs can form a coalition government. There's nothing impossible and there are stranger bed fellows than Sánchez and Rivera, but I'm very skeptic about this...
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tack50
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« Reply #1959 on: September 02, 2018, 05:20:35 pm »

It's been a while since we last got a poll (summer and all) but here's a new one:

Sociométrica / El Español

PSOE: 25.8% (103)
Cs: 23.1% (81)
PP: 22.6% (90)
UP: 16.5% (48)
Vox: 1.8% (1)
PACMA: 1.5% (0)

ERC: 3.0% (12)
PDECat: 1.5% (6)
PNV: 1.3% (6)
Bildu: 0.7% (2)
CC: 0.5% (1)
 
http://electomania.es/20180902sociometrica-2/

Possible majorities with this result:

PSOE+Cs
PSOE+UP+ERC+PDECat+PNV
PP+Cs+PNV

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tack50
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« Reply #1960 on: September 03, 2018, 09:09:14 am »

Another poll today, this time from NC Report



This one shows essencially a tied election between PP and PSOE with Cs in third and UP in 4th.


Also, today PM Sánchez announced a very interesting (albeit extremely vague) idea: A referendum in Catalonia for more autonomy, but ruling out the possibility of independence. No idea how that would work but it's an interesting proposal even though I think that it would be rejected by both secessionists and hard unionists. I guess it would be another estatut reform like in 2006. On paper PSC+Podemos+ERC+JxCat would have a majority to reform the Estatut.

https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-pm-pedro-sanchez-proposes-referendum-on-greater-autonomy-for-catalonia/

And related to Catalonia, the "Comitees for the Defense of the Republic" have announced that they will try to paralyze Barcelona by camping in a public square and protesting from the 11th of September (Catalonia's regional holiday) to the 3rd of October. No idea how that will work but there will certainly be a hot autumn like they are saying. I guess it will resemble the 15M protests from back in 2011.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1961 on: September 03, 2018, 10:00:21 am »

Was the Cs's growth more a result of people expressing frustrations with Rajoy's government? And now that there is stability people are ditching the party?
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« Reply #1962 on: September 03, 2018, 10:37:44 am »

Was the Cs's growth more a result of people expressing frustrations with Rajoy's government? And now that there is stability people are ditching the party?

Also partly the fact that the Catalonia issue is no longer the hot  button issue it was 6 months ago. C's are the ideal party in the eyes of right-wing Spanish when it comes to Catalonia.
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tack50
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« Reply #1963 on: September 04, 2018, 03:36:48 pm »
« Edited: September 04, 2018, 03:41:50 pm by tack50 »

The leader of Podemos in Catalonia and of the CatComú coalition, Xavier Domenech has announced that he is leaving his seat in the Catalan parliament and leaving politics altogether. Among the reasons, apparently he is leaving because of the bad result in the 2017 election (not that it made García Albiol in PP resign with a much worse result). He also claims to be tired.

He will go back to his old job as a university professor.

I think he will be missed. I didn't particularly like him nor hate him though any replacement for him will certainly be a lot weaker (except for possibly Colau)



In other notes, this 31st of August was the day that more jobs were destroyed in Spain ever, with more than 300 000 jobs lost. August is always a bad month and Fridays are always a bad day for jobs in Spain (tourism and all) but this seems to be bad news nontheless. The economy is certainly weaker than a year ago.

I could certainly see PSOE having come into power at just the wrong moment economically speaking.



Also, the Sánchez budget will have to wait. The Senate, with a PP majority, blocked the debt ceiling a while ago. Sánchez tried to pass a law through the emergency procedure in a single reading to remove this power from the otherwise useless Senate (power that was given to the Senate in 2012 by PP). However procedural stuff in Congress has rejected this so it will have to pass as an ordinary law and with the possibility of ammendments. So we won't have a budget until at least 6 months from now at the very least.

At this point I'm wondering if we'll ever see a budget being passed on time again.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1964 on: September 05, 2018, 08:46:13 am »

Cs leader Albert Rivera threatens to break the confidence and supply agreement with PSOE in Andalusia within two days. Rivera alleges breach on the part of premier Susana Diaz and urges her to fulfill some conditions (electoral reform and others). Susana Díaz says that two days are little time, accuses Rivera of electioneering and transmits signals that she could call elections this autumn. There have been rumours in previous months on early elections in Andalusia. In case Susana Díaz calls, a new electoral cycle starts in Spain.

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tack50
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« Reply #1965 on: September 09, 2018, 05:50:02 pm »

Today the Sánchez government has officially passed the 100 day mark. Nothing interesting related to that but  I guess we can now see the difference with the Rajoy government.

Apparently mayor of Madrid Manuela Carmena has announced that she is running for reelection. While this would generally be good news for the left (I personally think Madrid is lost if Carmena had retired), it's caused a bit of trouble inside Podemos and IU since she has announced that she will run not as a party (whether officially "Unidos Podemos" or an instrumental party like Ahora Madrid in 2015) but instead as an "electors list"; basically running as an independent without any links to political parties. PSOE has said that they won't take part on the Carmena electors list.

In fact she has said that she will run for mayor even if she doesn't have the support of Podemos and IU and doesn't want to go through a primaries process. In any case I don't think Podemos/IU will try and run against Carmena.

Finally, we have a new poll. And for the first time, a pollster other than El Español shows Vox getting a seat!

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE 27% (106)
PP 25,9% (106)
Cs 20,6% (68)
UP 15,9% (43)
Vox 1,5% (1)

ERC 2,8% (11)
PDeCat 1,9% (7)
PNV 1,1% (6)
Bildu 0,7% (2)

CC isn't shown, so I'm going to assume they get around 0.2% of the vote and no seats.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1966 on: September 09, 2018, 07:31:05 pm »
« Edited: September 10, 2018, 01:02:25 am by Velasco »


Apparently mayor of Madrid Manuela Carmena has announced that she is running for reelection. While this would generally be good news for the left (I personally think Madrid is lost if Carmena had retired), it's caused a bit of trouble inside Podemos and IU since she has announced that she will run not as a party (whether officially "Unidos Podemos" or an instrumental party like Ahora Madrid in 2015) but instead as an "electors list"; basically running as an independent without any links to political parties. PSOE has said i that they won't take part on the Carmena electors list.

In fact she has said that she will run for mayor even if she doesn't have the support of Podemos and IU and doesn't want to go through a primaries process. In any case I don't think Podemos/IU will try and run against Carmena.

Manuela Carmena is a good mayor that has reduced the astronomic local debt left by the PP governments. Also, she is taking steps to solve a number of problems (pollution, housing, etcetera) and she has a quite decent approval rate. Podemos and IU have their interests as political organizations, but people in both parties (and in the PSOE too) know that Manuela Carmena is the only hope for the Left to retain a city that otherwise is leaning to the Right. Carmena has been hesitating due to some health problems (she is 74) and some conflicts within her heterogeneous governing group. She is an independent and wants to run in an independent list ("voters grouping", a legal formula slightly different from the "instrumental party" Ahora Madrid) where people from Podemos, IU and other parties and organizations is invited to join. Manuela Carmena wants her close collaborators (Rita Maestre from Podemos and others) to be on the top of the list, as well she would like to get rid of some councillors that created problems (mostly people from Ganemos and the former treasurer, who is from IU). Pablo Iglesias would like to place loyals like retired general Julio Rodríguez, but it's likely that he will concede most of the Carmena's demands. On the other hand, the candidate of Unidos Podemos in the region of Madrid will be ïñigo Errejón and the coincidence between him and Carmena is total.

In other news, Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias are in honeymoon. This week the PM and the leader of Podemos signed a draft deal that could serve as governing blueprint

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/09/07/inenglish/1536310023_380435.html

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Cs broke officially the confidence and supply agreement with the PSOE of Andalusia on Friday, in a meeting of the national executive held in Málaga, This will lead inevitably to snap elections in this southern region opening the new electoral cycle in Spain. Local, Regional and European elections are scheduled next year. General elections could take place in autumn next year in case Pedro Sánchez cannot pass the budget and stretches the timing.

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Funnily enough, this pollster works for La Vanguardia too. I suspect the results of the polls for ABC and the Barcelona newpaper might differ a bit, which shouldn't be very surprising given that often polls reflect the customer's desires.

EDIT: The decision of Carmena to run in her own terms has raised criticism in IU, Ganemos and the anticapitalist faction of Podemos. In other words, those factions within Ahora Madrid that have confronted Carmena. Her announcement has been welcomed by councillors and people in the mainstream factions of Podemos.
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tack50
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« Reply #1967 on: September 10, 2018, 07:14:02 am »

For a government with only 101 days in office, there sure have been a lot of ministers with scandals. First the Máxim Huerta thing and now this.

Apparently the minister of healthcare, Carmen Montón, also has an irregular masters degree at the same university as the PP politicians (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos). In this case she apparently got the masters degree even though half of the subjects were already over when she entered the course.

Honestly, I feel she should resign, not (just) for getting a masters degree fraudulently, but for doing a masters degree in gender studies. That alone shows she doesn't have good judgement xD

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/DIRECTO-master-Monton-claves-reacciones_13_813098683.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #1968 on: September 10, 2018, 07:41:41 am »

Carmen Montón should resign immediately, since she has failed this morning in providing explanations for the many irregularities reported by journalists from eldiario.es (the same who unveiled the master irregularities of PP politicians). Pablo Casado should have never run for the PP leadership, because he got his master degree without studying.

I'm highly dissapointed at Carmen Montón, who held the Healthcare portfolio on the Valencian regional government and made a good job. She must leave. Said this, WTF with gender studies? Are you a male chauvinist or what?

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« Reply #1969 on: September 10, 2018, 07:48:56 am »

That may be stupid question to ask, especially taking into consideration that Spanish politics recently become stupidly dynamic and interesting: how is PACMA doing these days? And VOX?
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tack50
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« Reply #1970 on: September 10, 2018, 08:11:25 am »
« Edited: September 10, 2018, 08:16:40 am by tack50 »

Carmen Montón should resign immediately, since she has failed this morning in providing explanations for the many irregularities reported by journalists from eldiario.es (the same who unveiled the master irregularities of PP politicians). Pablo Casado should have never run for the PP leadership, because he got his master degree without studying.

I'm highly dissapointed at Carmen Montón, who held the Healthcare portfolio on the Valencian regional government and made a good job. She must leave. Said this, WTF with gender studies? Are you a male chauvinist or what?



It's a joke based on that the "gender studes" degree is often considered worthless. Not on gender studies or feminism themselves.

I do agree she has to leave for basically the same reasons, not that (which was a joke).

Also, former deputy PM Soraya Saénz de Santamaría is leaving politics altogether after her defeat in the PP primary.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/09/10/5b9662e9ca474183788b4623.html
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tack50
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« Reply #1971 on: September 10, 2018, 08:31:31 am »

That may be stupid question to ask, especially taking into consideration that Spanish politics recently become stupidly dynamic and interesting: how is PACMA doing these days? And VOX?

Who knows? From what I can tell Vox is probably around the 1.x% mark and on the edge of getting a seat. PACMA is around the same in the popular vote but with a much lower chance of getting a seat since it's more spread out.

In any case the snap Andalusian elections and especially the 2019 European elections will determine whether they get a chance at a seat or not.
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tack50
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« Reply #1972 on: September 11, 2018, 02:52:55 pm »

Well, minister Carmen Montón has finally resigned, one day after the accusations surfaced. today more accusations against her happened, this time of plagiarism. Her resignation is a bit weird since up until this evening PM Sánchez was still supporting her.

In any case, I guess the fact that there were even more accusations, plus internal pressure inside PSOE (even if Sánchez himself wasn't in favour of her resigning, many in the party did) forced her.

Good riddance IMO. This government certainly feels cleaner just because of how these scandals have been handled.

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« Reply #1973 on: September 12, 2018, 07:59:10 am »
« Edited: September 12, 2018, 08:03:01 am by swl »

Seems like every Spanish politician is being accused of cheating on their master/doctorate thesis. Funny and ridiculous in the same time.
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tack50
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« Reply #1974 on: September 12, 2018, 08:30:07 am »

Yup. Today Rivera accused PM Pedro Sánchez of cheating in his doctorate thesis.

Sánchez's doctorate thesis is quite controversial, since it's technically public, but access to it is extremely restricted, you have to go to the university in person to see it, you are only given a limited amount of time and you can't take any photocopies or pictures.

So according to some rumours Sánchez's thesis is plagiarized, and even just the fact that access to it is very limited (when Sánchez himself could simply make it public) makes a lot of people believe something is off.

Also according to specialists, Sánchez's thesis seems very basic, which at the very least wouldn't justify the grade he got (cum laude)

Though apparently the university has done a first check to see if it was plagarized and the result was that it wasn't.

If anyone cares, it's officially registered in the respective department of the ministry of education, but the thesis itself is not there, just a 1 paragraph summary.

https://www.educacion.gob.es/teseo/mostrarRef.do?ref=1091215
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