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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #2000 on: October 02, 2018, 01:29:21 pm »

BREAKING

Spanish Congress supports a legislative decree approved by the government in August in order to exhume and move away the Franco's remains from the Valle de los Caídos memorial.

The vote went as follows: 172 in favour, 164 abstentions and 2 against. All PP and Cs deputies abstained, except two PP members who voted against alleging mistake.

On the legislative decree

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/24/inenglish/1535097265_662248.html

Quote
Forty-three years after the death of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, the Socialist Party (PSOE) government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has begun the complex process of exhuming his remains from the Valley of the Fallen memorial site.

Today, the Cabinet approved a legislative decree that will add a pair of articles to the Historical Memory Law to legally safeguard the exhumation. Once approved, the decree will be put to a historic vote in Congress.

Wonderful news.

Why do C's even abstain. They should be a liberal pro-Europe political party, but they secretly still admire Franco. Ugh, Spanish politics is sick.
Because a lot of their support comes from nationalists. They hammered their colors to the mast in the Catalonia crisis.
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tack50
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« Reply #2001 on: October 02, 2018, 01:41:15 pm »

And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468
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« Reply #2002 on: October 02, 2018, 01:45:21 pm »

And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468

Well, that would be a quicker govt. collapse then expected, I thought they would last till spring.
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tack50
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« Reply #2003 on: October 02, 2018, 02:20:31 pm »

Yeah, me too. I expected that either Sánchez would expire his term, call a snap election well after the EU elections (say, autumn 2019) or the budget fails and Sánchez calls the election in February/March at the earliest.

Though I guess the last scenario can still happen, PDECat might not support Sánchez but they sure aren't going to support Casado/Rivera either. Though maybe Rivera should get in touch with them and call a no confidence vote which clearly is intended just to call an election with an independent caretaker government?
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Velasco
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« Reply #2004 on: October 04, 2018, 10:28:13 am »

And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468

The ultimatum failed in less than 24 hours, due to the lack of support from ERC and PDeCAT. Premier Quim Torra, who is an independent elected in the Puigdemont list (JxCAT), acted in his own without talking with the parties supporting his government (I ignore if he contacted Puigdemont and his Waterloo clique). Torra was asked to resign in previous days by the 'radical separatists' of the CDR (Committees to Defend the Republic, close to the CUP) and by the 'unionist' opposition (PP and Cs). Just before the October 1 anniversary Catalan premier encouraged the self-organized CDR groups to keep pressure in the streets. Hardline separatist Torra was being called 'traitor' by the CDR radicals because of previous incidents with the regional police and because his government isn't implementing the 'Catalan Republic'. Kind words didn't ingratiate Torra with the 'radicals', whom tried to storm the regional parliament after the October 1 demonstration forcing regional police to repeal them. These incidents prove that the separatist parties and organizations (ANC, Òmnium) are the losing control of the treets, as well as show the incompetence of the regional government. As for the ultimatum ensuing the riots, it shows that Torra is an amateurish and incompetent gambler unworthy of Machiavelli. I think Catalan parties are aware that making Pedro Sánchez to fall will benefit Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera- Unlike Sánchez, Casado and Rivera don't want to talk with separatists. The two parties of the Spanish Right want to implement article 155 again, imposing again direct rule in Catalonia and extending the control of the central government to education, TV and radio. Casado also wants to outlaw separatist parties.

Days ago Quim Torra sent a letter to the Spanish PM copied to world leaders

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/10/04/inenglish/1538642944_252769.html

Quote
Catalan premier Quim Torra sent a letter at the end of September to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, copied to US President Donald Trump, the pope and other world leaders, in which he asked for help in mediating a referendum on Catalan independence.

According to the Spanish newspaper El Periódico, Torra expresses willingness to engage in negotiations with the government and makes no reference of the ultimatum he made on Tuesday, when he threatened to withdraw support for the Socialist Party (PSOE) government in Congress if Sánchez does not propose an authorized referendum on secession from Spain within a month

The letter is written in English and addressed to Sánchez, but Torra also copied in Trump, Pope Francis, EU heads of government and the presidents of China, Ukraine and Kosovo.

 






 
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tack50
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« Reply #2005 on: October 07, 2018, 05:37:56 am »

El Confidencial did an interesting report analyzing the voters of the 2 latest "emerging parties": PACMA and Vox

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2018-10-06/vox-pacma-encuestas-elecciones-cis-escano_1626357/

Img


Basically:

Vox has an average age of 55. So quite the old party, probably shared with PP.
PACMA has a very young base, with the average age being 33!.

Vox (much like similar parties in Europe) has a very masculine base of 63% men, while PACMA has a very feminine base of 70% women. In both cases it's a lot more skewed than the main 4 parties (which never go beyond something like 57-43 either way)

PACMA is voted mostly by leftists, with 47% being on the left (0-4) and another 25% on the centre (5). Interestingly there are 6.3% of right wing PACMA voters.

On the other hand Vox is quite on the right, with almost no voters on the left, 16% on the centre and 21% on the centre-right (6). More than 60% of Vox voters place themselves clearly right of center (7-10)
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tack50
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« Reply #2006 on: October 08, 2018, 08:34:36 am »

It's finally official now, Susana Diaz will call a snap Andalusian election for the 2nd of December, in order to avoid having it the same day as a hypothetical snap election.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20181008/susana-diaz-convoca-elecciones-anticipadas-andalucia-7077227

Though honestly she should have called it much sooner (ideally for late October), particularly when the ERE corruption judgement is around the corner. I wonder when will be the exact date, but the court ruling will certainly come during the campaign or just before it.

In any case, Andalucia is Safe PSOE, the only question is whether she will do a deal with Cs again or maybe with Podemos (even though the Andalusian Podemos branch hates her and she hates Podemos as well)
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tack50
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« Reply #2007 on: October 14, 2018, 09:38:44 am »

A couple of new regional polls (we will start getting more and more of these as we get closer to May 2019). We also get one of the few polls that show Vox with chances at a seat in a regional election (which surprised me honestly)

El Heraldo de Aragón for Aragon regional elections

PSOE: 23.6% (17-19)
PP: 22.3% (16-19)
Cs: 21.4% (15-17)
UP: 17.3% (11-12)
PAR: 5.7% (3)
ChA: 3.2% (1)
Vox: 2.7% (0-1)

https://www.electograph.com/2018/10/aragon-amasm-181014.html

My rating: Lean PP (flip)

Even in the best case scenario for the left, they still lose their majority. IMO Lambán is toast, only way he manages to hold on is with a PSOE-Cs coalition (with or without PAR). But the left will certainly lose their majority here

They also did polls for the mayors of the 3 provincial capitals (Zaragoza, Huesca, Teruel). The general summary seems to be:

https://www.electograph.com/2018/10/aragon-capitales-amasm-181014.html

Huesca: Tossup. The left will probably win in terms of votes, but because of Aragón Sí Puede (which may be Podemos, IU or neither!) and ChA falling shortly below the 5% threshold (both around 4%), a right wing government is within the margin of error.

Zaragoza: Lean PSOE (flip). Mayor Santiesteve (Podemos) is toast. He drops from a narrow second in 2015 all the way to 4th. Zaragoza for some reason has been quite a left wing city (even holding its PSOE mayor in the 2011 wave!). However the left combined still adds up to a majority. PSOE goes up a lot, while PP stays the same and Cs rises quite a bit. ChA may or may not make the threshold. Finally Vox was polled and got around 3%, well below the threshold (but still sort of close).

Teruel: Safe PP. The right increases in a place where PP+Cs already got short of a majority by just 1 seat in 2015 (currently there's a PP+Cs+PAR coalition). The only question is how much will it increase and how close Cs will get to PP, but really Teruel is safe for PP.

CC internal only in Gran Canaria, for the Cabildo and the regional parliament

Cabildo

NC: 27.5% (9)
PSOE: 17.4% (5-6)
CC-Unidos: 14.7% (4-5)
PP: 12.5% (4)
Cs: 10.8% (3)
UP: 10.7% (3)
Others: 6.4%

My rating: Safe NC

Morales is very popular and is safe IMO. Only question is whether NC-PSOE will be enough or whether he'll also need Podemos or someone else.

Canary Islands parliament (15 Gran Canaria seats)

PSOE: 20.5% (3-4)
NC: 17.4% (3)
UP: 15.8% (2-3)
PP: 13.5% (2)
Cs: 13.3% (2)
CC-Unidos: 13.3% (2)
Others: 6.2%

Lol, all parties almost tied with each other. No rating since this is just one constituency, but in general ok news for the left (though they lose 1 seat compared to 2015) and great news for CC, which goes up in a hostile island (then again it's a CC internal so no wonder).

The poll also includes several approval ratings for various local politicians:

https://www.canarias7.es/binrepository/estimacio-n-voto-octubre-2018_4114712_20181013220146.pdf

Honestly the most surprising is that premier Fernando Clavijo is somehow above water in the most hostile island to him! (5.3/10)

Keep in mind that this isn't just an internal, but also an old internal, allegedly from July.
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tack50
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« Reply #2008 on: October 17, 2018, 07:08:30 am »

Well, the budget was presented the other day to Brussels and presented by the government. The big changes in the budget are:

Increasing minimum wage to 900€

Increasing income tax for those earning over 130 000€

Reforming the law of urban rents, to protect tenants, to allow municipalities to put price controls in bad areas and increasing the budget of the national housing plan by 200 million €

Raising the smallest pensions by 3% in 2019 and making pensions rise according to inflation from now on

Rasing the minimum corporate tax to 15%, taxing dividends and profits (currently they are 100% tax free, now they'll only be 95% tax free), introducing a financial transactions tax of 0.2%



Also, we got our first poll for Andalucía after the election was called

Aurea Project for esdiario.com

PSOE: 32.8% (37-40)
PP: 23.6% (29-32)
Cs: 18.5% (20-22)
AA: 19.0% (19-22)

PACMA: 2.3% (0)
Vox: 1.0% (0)
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tack50
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« Reply #2009 on: October 22, 2018, 04:57:01 am »

Well, Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias has visited ERC leader Oriol Junqueras in prison, to try and unlock the budget a bit. He has also spoken over the phone with PDECat leader Carles Puigdemont. The situation seems to be the same, with ERC and PDECat claiming there won't be a budget without the so-called political prisoners being freed, while the government claims they can't do that as the judicial branch is independent from the executive branch.

He will also meet with Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu soon.

IMO the budget will pass but it all depends on the Catalan secessionists (I don't expect PNV to put much of a fight). Depending on the time of day and who you are asking they adopt either a hardline or a more concilliatory approach.

Keep in mind that the budget only needs a simple majority, so at least one of ERC and PDECat could abstain instead of outright voting in favour (depending also on what Bildu and CC do of course)


In polling news, we also got one more poll for the Andalusian regional election due for early December

NC Report for La Razón (Andalusian regionals; 109 seats, 55 for a majority)

PSOE: 36.6% (45)
PP: 23.4% (28)
AA: 18.6% (22)
Cs: 14.0% (14)

IMOP Insights for El Confidencial (Andalusian regionals)

PSOE: 29.8%
Cs: 22.3%
AA: 21.7%
PP: 20.5%

So yeah, Andalucia remains Safe PSOE; with the only questions being what happens with the other 3 (who comes in 2nd, 3rd and 4th and the margins) and whether PSOE will reach a deal with AA or with Cs. I think the former is easier now because of the national environment, but keep in mind the Andalusian Podemos branch is one of the more hostile ones to PSOE, while the Andalusian PSOE branch is one of the most conservative ones.

We also got some national polling over the last few weeks, including one of those "big if true" kind of polls

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

PSOE: 27.7% (109-112)
PP: 26.3% (101-104)
Cs: 19.3% (60-62)
UP: 17.4% (47-51)
Vox: 1.0% (0)
PACMA: 0.8% (0)

ERC: 3.0% (11-12)
PDECat: 1.7% (6)
PNV: 1.1% (5)
EH Bildu: 0.8% (2)
CC: 0.3% (1)

Simple Lógica

PSOE: 25.2%
PP: 23.8%
Cs: 21.6%
UP: 17.3%

NC Report for La Razón

PSOE: 26.8% (105-107)
PP: 26.7% (107-109)
Cs: 19.5% (62-65)
UP: 16.8% (45-48)
Vox: 1.9% (1)

ERC: 3.0% (11-12)
PDECat: 1.4% (5-6)
PNV: 1.1% (5-6)
EH Bildu: 0.7% (2-3)
CC: 0.3% (1)

Metroscopia

PSOE: 25.2%
PP: 22.6%
Cs: 19.2%
UP: 17.7%
Vox: 5.1%!

Others: 10.2%

The Metroscopia poll is a big outlier, but if true it would mean that Vox would actually get around half a dozen seats, and their own parliamentary group! (instead of going to the mixed group alongside Bildu and CC)

A general election remains a tossup, but PSOE's lead has narrowed down since the no confidence vote.
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tack50
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« Reply #2010 on: October 28, 2018, 05:19:59 pm »

Well, Podemos proposed legalizing marihuana right after Canada did it, but their proposal ended up just being that, a proposal. Interestingly Cs also supports marihuana legalization while PP and PSOE oppose it.

Still, there was a poll made on the topic which is quite interesting:

Img


Honestly, I'm surprised that no wins, I'd have thought that legalization would win. Also, PSOE supporters are almost equally split, and even more suprisingly, Cs supporters lean quite heavily towards no even though their party supports it!
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« Reply #2011 on: October 29, 2018, 07:32:18 am »

Ousted Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont launched a new party, on the anniversary of the unilateral declaration of independence. RIP Convergència / PDeCAT

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/27/ousted-catalan-leader-carles-puigdemont-launches-new-party

Quote
year after threatening the unity of Spain with an attempt to declare independence, the former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont launched a new party on Saturday, as part of a new bid to rally separatists from his base in Belgium.
Tensions flare at Barcelona protests on anniversary of independence vote
Read more

The new group, named Crida Nacional (National Call), held a founding congress on Saturday evening, marking the one-year anniversary of the secession push, but it has struggled to attract a groundswell of support, with some allies being held in Spanish jails and others choosing a more moderate political path.

The meeting of Puigdemont’s new party was held in the pro-independence town of Manresa, in the centre of Catalonia, near the prison where independence leaders are being held.

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tack50
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« Reply #2012 on: October 29, 2018, 07:41:58 am »

So, basically Convergencia's newest outfit, after DiL; PDECat and JxCat? Or will this be different somehow?
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« Reply #2013 on: October 29, 2018, 08:53:11 am »
« Edited: October 31, 2018, 09:08:25 am by Velasco »

So, basically Convergencia's newest outfit, after DiL; PDECat and JxCat? Or will this be different somehow?

The Crida Nacional is aimed to be a political movement that unites the pro-independence people under the leadership of Carles Puigdemont. However, there is an increasing division in the separatist camp. The relationship between premier Carles Puigdemont and deputy premier Oriol Junqieras was already bad a year ago. By that time Puigdemont was convinced by some people (Basque premier Íñigo Urkullu, former regional minister Santi Vila and others) to call a snap election in order to prevent the intervention of central government in Catalonia. But Puigdemont couldn't resist the pressure from ERC , people within his own party and the pro-independence associations (ANC, Ômnium). They considered that calling regional elections after the October 1 'referendum' was a concession to the Spanish state and were pushing for the UDI. The premier could not bear the idea of being called "traitor" by his people and turned back (the infamous"155 silver coins" tweet wrote by ERC deputy Gabriel Rufián did a lot of harm). However ERC has turned to a more moderate and pragmatic stance (broadening social base for independence, abandoning unilateralism)  after the UDI failure, the intervention of central government and the imprisonment of its leader Oriol Junqueras. In contrast Puigdemont and his inner circle remain on a more radical secessionist stance from their base at the Waterloo mansion, near Brussels. Puigdemont took over the PDeCAT in the party convention held in July, relegating moderate leaders like Marta Pascal (she was key in the no-confidence motion: the woman that ousted Rajoy). The party agreed to join the projected new political movement, the Crida Nacional. I believe that PDeCAT will retain party status by now, but this is probably the death of the old Convergéncia*.

*In short:

PDeCAT (Catalan European Democratic Party) is the refundation of the CDC (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia), disbanded in July 2016 at a convention held in Barcelona. Former premier Artur Mas was the last leader of CDC and the iirst leader the new party,.

DiL (Democracy and Freedom) was a coalition between CDC and a minor party called Democrats of Catalonia (splitted from UDC) for the 2015 Spanish general election. CDC ran in its own in the 2016 general election.

JxCAT (Together for Catalonia) was a coalition between the PDeCAT, CDC (which retained legal registration despite refoundation, allowing JxCAT to get time in TV) and independents to contest the December 2017 regional election. Actually it was a personal vehicle for Puigdemont, who placed like-minded independents in top positions marginalizing PDeCAT members.

The battle between the new Crida Nacional and ERC in next year's local elections promises to be tough.


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« Reply #2014 on: October 29, 2018, 12:58:12 pm »
« Edited: October 31, 2018, 09:10:13 am by Velasco »

ERC announced that Oriol Junqueras will be candidate for the EP elections. A party spokesman dismissed the possibility of a joint pro-independence list, arguing that ERC and JxCAT/Crida get better results when they run in their own. Junqueras is the ERC leader and was the deputy premier in Puigdemont's government. He is in preventive detention since November 2017.

Previously the spokeswoman of the Catalan government Elsa Artadi supported a joint list for theEuropean Parliament and the Barcelona City Hall, suggesting that JxCAT/Crida would accept that Junqueras tops the EP list. Artadi is economist and one of the top persons in JxCAT. Formerly in the PDeCAT, she's now an independent and a Puigdemont loyal.

As said above, ERC is unwilling to dissolve in a coalition. Besides the candidacy of Junqueras, ERC nominated Ernest Maragall candidate for Mayor of Barcelona. Maragall was in the PSC and is brother of former Catalan premier and Mayor of Barcelona Pasqual Maragall. JxCAT/Crida have no candidate yet. Possible candidates are former regional ministers Ferran Mscarell (also a former PSC member), Neus Munté and Joaquim Forn (both PDeCAT, formerly CDC). Polls are consistently placing ERC ahead of the heirs of Convergència (PDeCAT, JxCAT, Crida, whatever).

PDeCAT chairman David Bonvehí says there will be a consult to the membership on the way they will coalesce in the Crida Nacional.
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« Reply #2015 on: October 29, 2018, 07:16:56 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2018, 08:13:29 pm by Velasco »

Quote
Besides the candidacy of Junqueras, ERC nominated Ernest Maragall candidate for Mayor of Barcelona. Maragall was in the PSC and is brother of former Catalan premier and Mayor of Barcelona Pasqual Maragall.

Ernest Maragall interviewed by Stephen Sackur (Hard Talk, BBC). Great Smiley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=641&v=vUzu8UUbvGA&fbclid=IwAR0du2cTPwOcXNT65m8Sgo0LrnWieZtks8aYr9pgJwIBBbCoQFM41OWCXi0

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« Reply #2016 on: October 30, 2018, 02:34:23 pm »
« Edited: October 30, 2018, 02:44:49 pm by tack50 »

Apparently the full list of parties that will run in the Andalusian election is out. However this is just a preliminary list, many of them will eventually be discarded. Still, the parties and coalitions that have at least registered to run are:

Running in all 8 provinces

Partido Socialista Obrero Español. (PSOE-A)
Partido Popular.  (PP-A)
Coalición Adelante Andalucía (Podemos-Izquierda Unida-Primavera Andaluza-Izquierda Andalucista)
Ciudadanos Partido de la Ciudadanía. (Cs)

Vox.
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal. (PACMA)
Coalición Equo Verdes-Iniciativa Andalucía.

Unión Progreso y Democracia. (UPyD)
Andalucía por el Si. (AxSí)
Partido Comunista del Pueblo Andaluz. (PCPA)

Running only in certain provinces

Coalición Recortes Cero-Por un Mundo más Justo-Grupo Verde.
Coalición Conecta Andalucía (Partido Agora de Andalucía-Partido Integro de Centro Democrático).
Coalición Unidos por la Democracia (Unidos Si-Democracia Efectiva)
Coalición Socialistas por el Cambio 15M (Cambiar si se puede-Podemos 15M).
Convergencia Andaluza.
Nación Andaluza. (NA)
Ciudadanos Libres Unidos.
Ciudadanos Libres Unidos-Linares.
Partido Republicano Independiente Solidario Andaluz. (Partido RISA)
Alternativa Republicana. (ALTER)
Escaño en Blanco.
Izquierda Anticapitalista Revolucionaria. (IZAR)
Partido Comunista de los Pueblos de España.
Partido Comunista Obrero Español.
Partido Comunista de los Trabajadores y las Trabajadoras de España
Soluciona.
Respeto.
Falange Española de las Jons.
Independientes de Huelva (IxH)


The first block (in colour) are the ones that will almost certainly get seats. The underlined ones are the ones that won't get seats but have a chance of breaking 1%. Everyone else won't even break 1%

Of the minor lists running in all 8 provinces, the most interesting ones are Vox and PACMA obviously because of the national implications.

AxSí (and the other minor Andalusian nationalist lists) might also be interesting to watch just to see how dead Andalusian nationalism is. AxSí is the spiritual successor to the old Andalusian Party (PA) dissolved in 2016. Same with UPyD, it might be interesting to see just how dead are they.

As for the extremely small lists running only in certain provinces, I don't think any of them is all that interesting tbh.

If you care about minor parties, there's an interesting split between PCPE and PCPA, both far left tankie style communists and there's been a split in the national party (they can't agree on a party leader) so apparently they are running 2 different parties (an achievement for a party that gets 0.1% of the vote).

Other than that there are several communist parties, several nationalist parties (which I did mention could be interesting), several far right parties, and a couple parties I know nothing about
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« Reply #2017 on: October 30, 2018, 03:59:02 pm »

"Coalición Socialistas por el Cambio 15M (Cambiar si se puede-Podemos 15M)" seems like a Podemos splinter?
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tack50
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« Reply #2018 on: October 30, 2018, 04:50:12 pm »

Honestly looking them up on the internet it seems there's almost no information about them. The only site where they were described claimed that it's actually a PSOE splinter and a coalition between 2 parties: Cambiar Si Se Puede and Podemos15M (which apparently is not the same as regular Podemos)

In any case, super tiny parties can get real confusing, real fast; I wouldn't read much (if anything) into them.

In local elections they can be fun to read into but they never have real implications for the most part.

Plus, keep in mind that many of these will actually be rejected for one reason or another. When I did this for the Catalan regional election of the 10 or so tiny parties that ran only like 3 were actually on the ballot.

Granted that election was under unusual circumstances but I'd still expect around half of those lists to not be on the ballot. Especially the weirder ones that appeared out of thin air and that I know nothing about.
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« Reply #2019 on: October 30, 2018, 05:59:37 pm »

I'm surprised UPyD is still kicking around. Why voting for them when C's exist?
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tack50
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« Reply #2020 on: October 30, 2018, 06:01:55 pm »

I'm surprised UPyD is still kicking around. Why voting for them when C's exist?

No real reason honestly. I guess people who are pro Spanish union but more progressive and leftist than Cs? (they've moved to the right in recient times)

UPyD is just in zombie form anyways though, it will eventually dissolve slowly into oblivion, kind of like CDS back on the day. UPyD's last chance (and an incredibly remote one at that) is the 2019 EU election but they almost certainly won't get a chance.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2021 on: October 31, 2018, 10:00:20 am »

AxSí (and the other minor Andalusian nationalist lists) might also be interesting to watch just to see how dead Andalusian nationalism is. AxSí is the spiritual successor to the old Andalusian Party (PA) dissolved in 2016. 

AxSÍ is clearly borrowing its name from Catalan separatists: see Junts pel Sí (JxSÍ) and Catalunya Sí (a coalition led by ERC). This might lead to confusion in what regard the goals of these Andalusian nationalists. From what I'm reading in their political manifesto, they are not calling for the independence of Andalusia. They advocate for the full development of self-government, federalism, multinational state, etcetera.

Nación Andaluza ("Andalusian Nation", NA) is openly separatist. According to the party's web page, NA is pro-independence, socialist and feminist. It's also a "sovereigntist, anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist collectivity" and its goal is to achieve "the national liberation of our Country and the social liberation of our People".

Quote
If you care about minor parties, there's an interesting split between PCPE and PCPA, both far left tankie style communists and there's been a split in the national party (they can't agree on a party leader) so apparently they are running 2 different parties (an achievement for a party that gets 0.1% of the vote).

This split continues a long established tradition in far -left parties. The Communist Party of the Spanish People (PCPE) is an old splinter of the Communist Party of Spain (PCE) founded in 1984. I met secretary general Carmelo Suárez years ago, because he was living in the same estate that some old friend of mine. Suárez is architect and I think he and the fathers of my friend had a cooperative housing society. Long live Marx and Lenin!

 
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tack50
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« Reply #2022 on: October 31, 2018, 12:15:57 pm »

Yeah AxSí, even if it tries to borrow from Junts x Si in Catalonia, is actually a nationalist but unionist party, much like the old PA; or like CC in the Canary Islands; nothing like ERC and PDECat.

NA is the true secessionsist party.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2023 on: October 31, 2018, 01:54:48 pm »
« Edited: October 31, 2018, 04:53:52 pm by Velasco »

I don't know if the AxSÍ party is more or less nationalist than the old PA, which was a centre-left regionalist party. Personally I'd use the word "regionalist" rather than "unionist" to characterize this kind of regional parties because: a) "unionist" has some "centralist" connotation (Cs and UPyD would fit perfectly here, while Vox would be extreme unionist"); b) there are regional parties that are not openly separatist but are somewhat sovereigntist (Compromís and Catalunya en Comú come to my mind). Also, there are regional parties with little to none sovereigntist elements (CC*, PRC, UPN...). I think AxSI does not fit in the last category because its manifesto has mentions to "federalism" and the "multinational state" (estado plurinacional).

In any case, prior to 1984 the PA was called Socialist Alliance of Andalusia and later Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA, from 1979 to 1984). There is a curious fact: the PSA contested the first Catalan election held in 1980, getting 2.66% of the vote and winning 2 seats in Barcelona province. The PSA/PA did not contest subsequent Catalan elections, but a winning seats in 1980 indicates the importance of Andalusian immigration in Catalonia. There were 840k Andalusians living in Catalonia in the early 70s and currently there are 1.1 million of people of Andalusian heritage living there. Catalonia is called sometimes the "9th Andalusian province"

Because of the above mentioned, the political crisis in Catalonia is going to be (presumably) an important issue in the Andalusian campaign. Especially in the case of the Cs campaign, because the leader of the oranges in Catalonia Inés Arrimadas was born in Andalusia (Jerez de la Frontera) and the Cs leader Albert Rivera is a Catalan with Andalusian ancestry. Both Rivera and Arrimadas are going to campaign in support of low-profile candidate Juan Marín. The Andalusian election is very important to Cs in its aim to replace the PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right and the main alternative to PSOE in the southern region.

*Actually there are a few sovereigntist and nationalist elements in CC, that is a heterogeneous coalition of regional and insular parties. Anyway, CC is above all a regional interests party and is far from being a threat to the unity of Spain.
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tack50
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« Reply #2024 on: November 02, 2018, 10:43:45 am »

Today the proposed punishments for the Catalan secessionist leaders have been published, and there's a split between the Solicitor General's Office (which directly responds to the Spanish government) and the Attorney General's office (which is independent from the Sánchez government). No idea if this kind of split is common or not, but it was to be somewhat expected

The proposed punishments from each judicial organization are:

Attorney General (generally harsher, it does accuse them of rebellion)

Oriol Junqueras (Deputy premier and regional minister of Economics): Head of Rebellion and public fund misuse. 25 years in prison and another 25 years of political inhabilitation (where he can't have any elected office)

Jordi Sánchez (leader of the secessionist organization ANC): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years of inhabilitation

Jordi Cuixart (leader of the secessionsit organization Ómnium): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years barred from public office

Carme Forcadell (president of the catalan parliament): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years barred from public office

Jordi Turull (speaker of the Catalan government): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Raul Romeva (regional minister of foreign affairs): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Joaquim Forn (regional minister of the interior): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Josep Rull (regional minister of territory and sustainability): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Dolors Bassa (regional minister of labour, social affairs and family): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Carles Mundo (regional minister of justice): Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and a 10 month fine.

Meritchell Borrás (regional minister of government, public administrations and housing). Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and 10 month fine

Santiago Vila (regional minster of business, resigned shortly before the UDI). Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and 10 month fine

6 other politicians were charged with disobedience and punished with a 10 month fine and 1 year and 8 months barred from public office

Solicitor General's office (generally more lenient, the ones accused of rebellion are accused of sedition instead)

Oriol Junqueras: 12 years in prison

Carme Forcadell: 10 years in prison

Jordi Cuixart and Jordi Sánchez: 8 years in prison

Jordi Turull, Raul Romeva, Joaquim Forn, Josep Rull, Dolors Bassa: 11 and a half years in prison

Carles Mundo, Meritxell Borras, Santiago Vila: Still 7 years in prison, but only 7 more years barred from public office

For the other 6 processed people for only disobedience, the punishment is still the same except for Mireia Boya (speaker of CUP in the catalan parliament) and Joan Jusep Nuet (member of the parliament table, who decides schedules and when and what to vote, appointed by Podemos), who are only charged with 8 months barred from public office.
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