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Velasco
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« Reply #2025 on: November 03, 2018, 09:41:28 am »

The government is being attacked from all sides. The Spanish Right claims treason, while Catalan separatists say that they are disappointed

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/02/inenglish/1541146388_493726.html

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The move is not likely to please anyone in the opposition. Catalan pro-independence parties want all charges to be lifted, while the conservative Popular Party (PP), under whose administration the secession push took place, will contend that dropping the rebellion charge is Sánchez’s way of paying back the Catalan separatist parties that helped him win his no-confidence vote against Mariano Rajoy in late May.

This view is seconded by Ciudadanos, a center-right party whose secretary general José Manuel Villegas on Friday accused Sánchez of favoring the jailed separatists for political reasons. “Mr Sánchez has been acting like the defense attorney for the coup plotters for several days now,” he said in an interview with radio station SER. “He is not making a decision for the general good, but because he needs the coup plotters’ votes in Congress.”

Right now ERC and PDeCAT are unwilling to vote the budget and it seems difficult that they change their minds. Trial against Catalan separatist leaders begins in January; political climate won't favour agreements. The Pedro Sánchez government is already in a weak position. With no budget and attacked from two sides, holding on government means constant wear. With these bleak picture, we cannot rule out general elections in May. 

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tack50
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« Reply #2026 on: November 03, 2018, 09:49:02 am »

I personally hope the general election doesn't take place at the same time as the EU/local elections.

A mega-election with literally everything possible on the ballot seems like a bad idea to me and will lead to "coattails" instead of each position being considered individually.

I'd personally favour either an election in March (if the budget fails) or in Autumn 2019 (if the budget somehow succeeds)

But yeah, the climate doesn't seem leading to agreements. I can see Sánchez getting Podemos and PNV quite easilly. Maybe Bildu/CC as well but they aren't decisive. However the decisive votes of ERC and PDECat seem hard to get.
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Michael19754
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« Reply #2027 on: November 03, 2018, 03:52:53 pm »

This could backfire on the separatists. If an early election is called and PP and C's win a majority, they better get ready...
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Velasco
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« Reply #2028 on: November 03, 2018, 04:56:21 pm »

This could backfire on the separatists. If an early election is called and PP and C's win a majority, they better get ready...

That would be a gloomy prospect, IMO. In case PP and Cs win a majority and implement direct rule in Catalonia again, but in a harsher way, then it'd be better that Spain gets ready. I think it's obvious that the course of action proposed by the Spanish Right won't address the real problem: the existence of separatist feelings in Catalonia. I have the impression that repressive measures would be bad for the unity of Spain in the mid term. As far as I know, neither Casado nor Rivera are proposing any kind of measure that could lead to a meaningful solution to the Catalan conundrum. For instance, Casado could not claim that banning separatist parties will end separatism without insulting intelligence.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2029 on: November 03, 2018, 05:14:39 pm »

In case separatists chhose again frontal collision and the "wose is better" strategy, that could backfire on them. The escalation of the conflict would affect Catalonia in all respects: struggling economy, increasing social tension and so on. The srustration caused by dashed illusions is potentially very dangerous.
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tack50
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« Reply #2030 on: November 03, 2018, 05:43:38 pm »

Yep, a PP-Cs majority (or worse, a PP-Cs minority depending on Vox) is probably the worst case scenario for secessionists unless they plan on accelarationism, or like Rajoy said: "The better for you the worse, and the worse for you, the better".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glMm5w7K4Yg

That was a gaffe back on the day but it actually sums up the Spanish right and the Catalan secessionists quite nicely Tongue

Speaking of Rajoy, I remember reading an article in El Mundo where the people who actually activated and dealt with article 155 (the Rajoy cabinet and people close to him) are disappointed about the parties policies in Catalonia.

Whereas Rajoy hesitated a lot on applying article 155, and applied it only as a last resort and only after thinking about it for a long time and negotiating a broad consensus, nowadays Casado's PP and Cs want to activate it for no reason adding fuel to the fire while PSOE is way too lenient on Catalonia.

Here's the article:

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/10/28/5bd4c007e5fdea4e178b45db.html
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Michael19754
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« Reply #2031 on: November 03, 2018, 06:22:56 pm »

Anyways, the root of all this are the punishments that the prosecutors are seeking. In my opinion they are completely ridiculous. 25 years for organizing a referendum that resulted in nothing but symbolism? I wouldn't be surprised if Patrick Nogueira (who killed several memebers of his family) gets a shorter sentence. I get the embezzlement charges, the money came out of somewhere, but rebellion?
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« Reply #2032 on: November 03, 2018, 06:39:01 pm »

Anyways, the root of all this are the punishments that the prosecutors are seeking. In my opinion they are completely ridiculous. 25 years for organizing a referendum that resulted in nothing but symbolism? I wouldn't be surprised if Patrick Nogueira (who killed several memebers of his family) gets a shorter sentence. I get the embezzlement charges, the money came out of somewhere, but rebellion?


Insecure Castillans need to prove their culture is superior by oppressing other cultures.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2033 on: November 03, 2018, 08:11:34 pm »

Catalan separatist leaders breached the law. I think that the 'disconnection law' passed by the Parliament of Catalonia in September 2017 and the unilateral declaration of independence in October 2017 are more serious breaches than the referendum itself. As I see it, the vote held on October 1 was merely symbolic, a big demonstration of people demanding a real referendum of independence. But the so-called 'disconnection law' was aimed to provide some cover to the process of secession from Spain. Separatists put themselves outside the law, unilaterally and lacking of popular legitimacy (pro-independence parties represent 47.5% of voters). The unilateral declaration of independence on October 27 was a tragic nonsense (there was a sharp contrast that day between the somber atmosphere inside the parliament and the people waiting outside). Separatist leaders later claimed that the declaration was merely symbolic and they were kidding around (according to Clara Ponsatí), but they knew that article 155 was ready to be implemented and feared the legal consequences of their actions.

 It's obvious that the Judiciary must act when legality is breached, but implementing the principle of proportionality. I too believe that the charge of rebellion and the 25 years are disproportionate. Also, the recurring claim of the Spanish Right and associate media is ridicolous: they should turn to a dictionary, because what happened a year ago in Catalonia wasn't a coup. But beaching the law must have consequences, so the people involved in past year's events must be accused of something. Opposition parties are pressing from opposite sides: the Spanish Right cries "coup" and "rebellion", separatists demand absolution. I think it's clear the government is not handling well rhis convoluted situation.

I believe that any kind of political solution will have to involve pardon for the separatist leaders. The problem is that a heavy and disproportionate punishment will make a political solution very difficult. 
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tack50
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« Reply #2034 on: November 04, 2018, 05:41:50 pm »

Well we were a bit overdue for polls so here we have 3 new ones:

IBES for Balearic Islands regional elections

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Yeah, basically confirms that the Balearic Islands regional election is a tossup, and that it will most likely depend on PI (centre-right nationalists) to either put PP back in power or keep premier Armengol for 4 more years.

Worth noting that UM (PI's spiritual predecessor) supported both PSOE-left nationalist governments in the 00s as well as PP governments in the 80s and 90s.

Also worth noting that the last time a Balearic Islands government was reelected was all the way in 1995; since then no premier has served more than a single consecutive term

Celeste Tel-Eldiario.es for Andalusian regional elections

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Stil safe PSOE. A terrible poll for Cs though, who barely goes up from 2015, and a really good one for PSOE and PP, to the point where PSOE actually gains in the popular vote!

GESOP-El Periódico de Catalunya for general elections

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2nd poll in a row that shows Vox around 4%. Maybe their rise is real? Worth noting that if they get 5 seats and 5% of the vote they gain the right to their own parliamentary group instead of going to the mixed group, which grants them longer parliamentary speeches, and the like*

For the rest, good result for PSOE (GESOP is quite PSOE leaning though) and for Cs, who narrowly edge out PP

Honestly if these kinds of results with Vox way up are real it makes me wonder how large they would be if PP had gone with the more moderate Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría instead of the further right Casado as party leader. Would we be speaking of them breaking 7%?

*Keep in mind that if Vox falls narrowly short (say 4 seats and 4.x% of the vote), it's far from uncommon for parliamentary groups to agree to give them a group for them by bending the rules. A good example is UPyD in 2011 who narrowly fell short of the 5% required for a parliamentary group, but got one anyways. On the other hand, if the people in charge of parliament are feeling strict they can also not bend the rules (like Amaiur 2011 or PDECat 2016, neither of whom got a parliamentary group even if they also fell barely short)
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Velasco
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« Reply #2035 on: November 04, 2018, 05:55:15 pm »

Cs held a political event today in a town called Alsasua (Altsasu in Basque), located in the north of Navarre. Albert Rivera achieved an unprecedented feat: uniting the parties of the right and the far-right (Cs,PP and Vox) in defense of the Constitution, the Unity of Spain and the Guardia Civil.

Two years ago, two members of the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) were attacked by a group of young radical nationalists in a bar. The policemen were beaten and insulted at night in the town centre; they were out of service and having a drink with their partners. The attackers were sentenced to prison on terms hanging from 2 and 13 years. The judges didn't find evidence of terrorism or links to ETA, but considered other aggravating circumstances such as abuse of superiority and ideological hatred. The sentence was deemed excessive by relatives and neighbours, whom consider the incidents were only a tavern fight. There were some protests.

Albert Rivera spoke only 50 meters away from the scene, protected by a strong police force from a thousand radical Basque nationalists. The Cs leader proclaimed that "here in Alsasua constitutionalism can be reinforced and sanchismo weakened", inviting attendants to "shake hands around the constitution" to stop the evil Pedro Sánchez.

Protesters made noise to sabotage the event, ringing the bells of the town church (without priest permission) while an ETA victim was speaking. The night before someone left dung in the event's place. Police agents escorted Cs members and the rest of attendants, while a group of Alsasua neighbours put themselves between the radical protesters and the riot police to keep peace.

A couple of PP officials and Vox leader Santiago Abascal attended the event. Some PSOE official said that the event "exacerbates conflict", while the Alsasua mayor (Geroa Bai) deemed it as a "provocation"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/04/actualidad/1541327690_538842.html

Altsasu/Alsasua has a population of around 7,000 . It's located next to the Basque border in a Basque speaking area and Basque nationalist parties are strong there.

Results of the 2015 local elections in Alsasua:

Nafarroa Bai-Geroa Bai 36.8% 5 councilors
EH Bildu 21.4% 3 councilors
PSOE 13.5% 2 councilors
Goazen Altsasu (likely Podemos outfit) 12.3% 2 councilors
UPN 6.6% 1 councilor

Mayor: Javier Ollo (Geroa Bai)
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tack50
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« Reply #2036 on: November 08, 2018, 09:42:35 am »

The mortgage tax saga has finally ended.

Since I don't think anyone has spoken about it, basically it goes like this:

First, a Spanish Supreme Court ruling claimed that banks would be responsible to pay a mortgage related tax, and that ruling would start applying with effect in all of Spain and probably retroactively. However the next day the Supreme court suspended the ruling to re-evaluate it, in something unprecedented. Yesterday, the Supreme Court met and decided that the customers would now be the ones responsible for paying the tax and not banks. Finally, today the Spanish government announced a law-decree changing the mortgage law to overturn that ruling

https://elpais.com/economia/2018/11/08/actualidad/1541679667_089777.html

This certainly doesn't help make Spanish courts more believable and harms their reputation quite a bit.

Also, a plan to murder PM Pedro Sánchez by a lone wolf was discovered today. I don't think the murder would have been successful at all but still worth noting that maybe polarization has consequences.

If murdered, Pedro Sánchez would become the first murdered PM since PM Carrero Blanco in 1973 (during the last few years of the dictatorship). Worth noting that Aznar had a failed assassination attempt by ETA in 1995 though he was not the PM at the time

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/11/08/catalunya/1541663459_738366.html
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Michael19754
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« Reply #2037 on: November 11, 2018, 08:37:33 am »

GAD3 for La Vanguardia:
PSOE: 26.6%(106-109)
PP: 22.3%(89-93)
C's: 21.9%(73-75)
UP: 16.6%(48-50)
VOX: 3.4%(0-2)
ERC: 2.9%(8-12)
PdeCAT: 1.4%(3-6)
Turnout: 72%
Three quarters believe Sánchez should call a general election if the budget isn't passed and 52% disapprove of the job the government is doing.

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tack50
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« Reply #2038 on: November 12, 2018, 03:41:32 am »

There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español

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The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.
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« Reply #2039 on: November 12, 2018, 09:51:40 am »

There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español

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The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.
What caused PSOE and Podemos’s decline in Andalusia since 2015?
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« Reply #2040 on: November 12, 2018, 09:58:30 am »

There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español

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The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.
What caused PSOE and Podemos’s decline in Andalusia since 2015?
The explosive growth of C's, I'd presume.
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tack50
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« Reply #2041 on: November 12, 2018, 10:32:42 am »

There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español

Img


The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.
What caused PSOE and Podemos’s decline in Andalusia since 2015?

Well, I imagine this is a right leaning poll, but if confirmed, for PSOE it would basically be the corruption scandals (particularly the ERE case), fatigue (if PSOE wins, they will have officially been in charge longer than Franco!) and the fact that Susana Díaz isn't really all that popular (I imagine she lost a lot of points when she ran against Sánchez and lost)

For Podemos, I guess it's just extrapolating from their national trend, maybe combined with the fact that Podemos-IU coalitions rarely get all the votes they get when running separately
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Velasco
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« Reply #2042 on: November 12, 2018, 12:16:56 pm »

So we have Celeste Tel and NC Report predicting a poor result for CS, that would stay in the 4th place. And we have this one saying that Cs will get a very strong result and will come second, besides surprisingly good result for Vox in a region where nobody would give the far-right a chance. Which one should I trust?

I assume that Cs will grow, but I think that surpassing the PP to come second won't be easy. Neither CS nor PP have good candidates, but their national leaders will campaign hard. Inés Arrimadas and Albert Rivera have Andalusian background and that's an advantage for Cs. PP gains un territorial implementation and this is an advantage in the campaign. PSOE will resist, but is losing ground every election. Too many years in power. It seems that the coalition between Podemos and IU will retain or increase the 20 seats they got separately ln 2015, despite they would lose some votes. IU didn't win seats  in certain provinces and the votes were wasted. Running in coalition compensates the loses.

Oranges have promised that they won't support Susana Díaz again. This leaves collaboration between PSOE and Ahora Andalucía as the only viable option, because PP and Cs won't have the numbers. The problem is that Susana Díaz and Teresa Rodríguez don't like each other. Susana Díaz is in the right wing of her party; she would be more comfortable dealing with Cs. Teresa Rodríguez is in the left wing of Podemos, in the trotskyst faction known as Anticapitalistas.
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tack50
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« Reply #2043 on: November 16, 2018, 11:18:20 am »

Well, today the election campaign for the Andalusian elections started. Here are campaign posters and slogans from the 4 main parties:

PSOE: More Andalucia

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PP: Warranty for change

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AA: Andalucia Forward

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Cs: Now yes, Ciudadanos

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Here are the last few polls as well:

SW Demoscopia-Publicaciones del Sur for Andalusian regional elections

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The most surprising thing about this one is that it actually gives not just Vox seats, but also AxSí!

CIS for Andalusian regional elections

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This one interestingly gives Vox 1 seat, for Almería (with a whopping 7% there!) instead of the usual 0-2 bracket (which implies seats for Sevilla and Málaga).

Overall, while the overall scenario hasn't changed, most polls are now showing a 3 way tie for second. The nightmare scenario for PP I imagine would be to come 4th and with Vox entering parliament. If that happens, there's a real chance of PP going the way of UCD in the early 80s (ironically, PP definitively "killed" UCD at the 1982 Andalusian election, when they got 2nd and UCD 3rd)

We also got several general election polls, generally showing PSOE down a bit, Cs up a bit, PP down a lot and Podemos stagnant

Celeste Tel-Eldiario.es for general elections

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NC Report-La Razón for general elections

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Invymark-La Sexta for general elections

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Simple Lógica for general elections

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tack50
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« Reply #2044 on: November 16, 2018, 11:28:32 am »

Also, yet another scandal on Sánchez's cabinet. This time affecting economy minister Nadia Calviño, who had a similar scandal to the one Pedro Duque (minister of science and universities) had, where she bought a house through a fake business to pay less taxes.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181116/452969685434/nadia-calvino-casa-sociedad-desvinculada.html

I'm now wondering how many scandals is this cabinet going to get. Like looking at the initial cabinet composition, there are now 6 ministers who had scandals, 3 for avoiding taxes (Máxim Huerta, Pedro Duque, now Nadia Calviño), 1 for faking her master's degree (Carmen Montón), 1 involved in Villarejo's recordings (Dolores Delgado) and 1 who had a somewhat controversial involvement in the bankrupcy of Abengoa (Josep Borrell, though that scandal was previous to his involvement in the Sánchez cabinet)
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Velasco
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« Reply #2045 on: November 25, 2018, 03:07:22 am »
« Edited: November 25, 2018, 06:08:58 am by Velasco »

El País released a poll for the Andalusian elections conducted by 40dB (Belén Barreiro) instead of the usual Metroscopia (at last)

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PSOE comes first with loses, as everybody predicts. Tight contest for the seond place between PP, AA and Cs. Vox at the gates of the Andalusian Parliament. Holding on the second place could save Pablo Casado's face despite the heavy loses. Losing the second place to Cs or AA would be catastrophic for the PP. There is concern in the PP and Cs ranks caused by the rise of Vox. Pablo Casado is campaigning frantically throughout Andalusia conveying messages such as "immigrants must adapt to western customs or leave". I think such statements are not useful to stop the Vox rise, as they only amplify the anti-immigrant message of the far-right party. Anyway Casado has said that he has coincidences with Satiago Abascal and even has praised the man (don't forget that Vox is basically a radical PP split). Cs has chosen to ignore Vox and I'm not sure that's the best way to deal with it, but possibly it's etter than the other way. Both Casado and Rivera are visibly uncomfortable when asked about Vox and refuse to say that it's a far-right party.

The Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo predicts an even better result for Vox

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There is a certain climate of weariness and debasementof political debate that favours anti-political speech. This week there was a lamentable squabble in Congress between ERC deputy Gabriel Rufián (a cartoonish ruffianesque provocateur, tweeter politician) and the Foreign Affairs minister Josep Borrell (smart and vocal anti-separatist born in Catalonia). Rufián was expelled from the the plenary room by Speaker Ana Pastor. On the other hand, it's becoming usual that Catalan nationalists and the parties of the Spanish Right exchange insults. PP and Cs spokepersons use to say that the Catalan separatists are "golpistas" ("coup plotters"); ERC spokepersons reply that PP and Cs are "fascist". Rufián called "fascist" to Borrell as well. Borrell replied that Rufián pours dung and sawdust because he doesn't know how to do anything else. Speaker Ana Pastor, whp is from PP, requested that all mentions to "fascists" and "coup plotters" were erased from session records. The environment sucks these days.  

In other news Pedro Sánchez announced a deal on Gibraltar and unblocks the Brexit summit

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/24/inenglish/1543070447_943022.html

Quote
“The first thing to say is that we have achieved a joint declaration from the European Council and the European Commission that rules out Article 184 being applied to territorial issues,” he told reporters, in reference to the part of the UK’s draft Withdrawal Agreement that Spain objected to, given that it did not specifically exclude Gibraltar from talks on the future relationship between Great Britain and the EU. Spain wants to discuss the future of the British Overseas Territory – over which it holds a historic claim – on a bilateral basis and completely separate from the future EU-UK talks.

“Secondly, the British government has recognized this issue in writing,” he continued, speaking from La Moncloa prime ministerial palace. “And thirdly, the European Council and the European Commission have strengthened Spain’s position ahead of future negotiations.

“We defend national interests,” he added, explaining that the Spanish government had a responsibility to defend the situation of the inhabitants of neighboring Campo de Gibraltar, which is on Spanish soil (...)

Gibraltar is relevant for the Andalusian campaign for obvious geographical reasons. The Spanish government approved recently an investment plan for the Campo de Gibraltar, located around the Rock in Cádiz province. There is a sharp contrast between the richness of the Rock ( tax haven and smugglers' nest) and the Campo de Gibraltar, a region that suffers high unemployment and the increasing activities of drug trafficking cartels.


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« Reply #2046 on: November 26, 2018, 03:41:12 am »

Celeste-Tel (eldiario.es) and NC Report (La Razón) are more 'conservative' in their predictions for the upcoming Andalusian election (December 2), downplaying the growth of Cs and the 'Vox effect'. Both pollsters predict similar results, with PP and Vox slightly higher in the case of NC Report. That's not strange given that their chief pollsters have a a personal link. According to Celeste-Tel, the result would be:


According to Narciso Michavila, who is the chief pollster of GAD3, 70% of Vox voters are male. Also, there is a higher percentage of voters switching between Cs and Vox than voters switching btween PP and Vox. Michavila explains that Cs voters are placed more to the centre but they are also more prone to change to a new party. There are three variables in this campaign, says the pollster: a) the left/right axis, b) the crisis of Catalonia (the right campaigning against the "coup plotters" and their accomplices Pedro Sánchez and the evil populists), and c) the feminist vindication. Michavila says that some men are looking to Vox as a reaction to the feminist wave, to the point that 10% of Vox voters comes from the left and is overwhelmingly male. Vox advocates the supression of the Gender Violence Law passed during the years of Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE). The law is attacked by male chauvinists arguing that it goes against men.

La Vanguardia show us the correlation between vote and unemployment with maps. Historically municipalities with higher unemployment rates lean to the left (PSOE and IU to a lesser extent) and the municipalities with lower unemployment rates to the right (PP). The maps of the 2015 elections suggest that there is high a correlation between unemployment rate and vote for Podemos.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181125/453103700535/elecciones-andalucia-influencia-paro-comportamiento-electoral.html

Eldiario.es tells that PSOE is the winning force in more than a half of the Andalusian municipalities since the first regional election held in 1982. These municipalities are predominantly rural and small sized, located in the provinces of Seville, Jaén and Huelva. PSOE hegemony ith maps:

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/hegemonia-PSOE-Andalucia-invicto-municipios_0_838166410.html
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tack50
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« Reply #2047 on: November 26, 2018, 11:23:12 am »

The final polling average before the election seems like it will end up mostly like this

PSOE: 35%
PP: 23%
AA: 20%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 4%

Seems like Cs has collapsed in the final stretch. Maybe they were being overpolled like in 2015? PP seems like it will go down a lot compared to 2015 but still come in 2nd, though there's a non negligible (but small) chance that AA comes in 2nd.

As for Vox, it's a tossup if they'll enter or not. In any case, 4% in Andalucia would mean something like 4.5% nationally at the very least, so assuming they don't collapse spectacularly after failing to enter (kind of like the 2014 EU election for them I guess) they will certainly get around 2 MEPs next year and UPyD-like numbers in the general election (4.5-5%; 4-5 seats)

Looking at the rest of the information, on Vox voters, I'd certainly not call everyone who wants to repeal the Gender Violence law of 2005 "male chovinists". There are legitimate reaons to want reform of that law, if I understand correctly it strips men of due process and "innocent until proven guilty" under certain circumstances (remember Cs originally wanted to repeal it as well)

Then again, that law was surprisingly passed unanimously, 332-0, and most parliamentary resolutions regarding "gender violence" pass unanimously so I imagine Vox will be the odd one out here.

Cs' vote has always been very unstable so it's no wonder former Cs voters are now defecting to Vox (particularly if they initially left PP based on the Catalonia issue, when Cs got a massive bump). The more interesting thing is that it's taking a non insignificant amount of left wing voters. I imagine most of those are populist Podemos voters. However on the long run it might be a greater threat to PSOE, by taking away from their base in rural Andalucia/Extramadura or the Asturias/Leon former coal fields (taken to the extreme, Asturias becomes Spain's West Virginia)

The remaining maps aren't very surprising, Andalucia is quite polarized on economic class, so it's no wonder that poorer, more unemployed areas lean left while more economically developed areas lean right.

In particular, I think the few urban municipalities that have always voted PSOE (like Dos Hermanas or Alcalá de Guadaira, just south of Sevilla) are also some of the poorest municipalities not just in Andalucia, but in all of Spain.
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tack50
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« Reply #2048 on: November 26, 2018, 06:13:57 pm »
« Edited: November 26, 2018, 06:19:11 pm by tack50 »

Also related to the Andalusian election, here's an interesting Nate Silver-like statistical analysis of polls, with the seat chances of each party:

Img


And here it is by coalition:

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http://1datomas.com/interactivos/elecciones-andaluzas-2d/

They also have a different polling average

PSOE: 33%
PP: 22%
AA: 20%
Cs: 17%
Vox: 4%
Others: 4%

Another simulation by Kiko Llaneras seems a bit more benevolent for the right, giving PP+Cs roughly a 5% of getting a majority (which I imagine could increase very slighly with Vox)

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/23/actualidad/1542972340_447656.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #2049 on: November 26, 2018, 10:05:23 pm »
« Edited: November 26, 2018, 10:13:28 pm by Velasco »

Looking at the rest of the information, on Vox voters, I'd certainly not call everyone who wants to repeal the Gender Violence law of 2005 "male chovinists". There are legitimate reaons to want reform of that law, if I understand correctly it strips men of due process and "innocent until proven guilty" under certain circumstances (remember Cs originally wanted to repeal it as well)

Then again, that law was surprisingly passed unanimously, 332-0, and most parliamentary resolutions regarding "gender violence" pass unanimously so I imagine Vox will be the odd one out here.

There is a difference between reforming specific elements of a piece of legislation and repealing a law. The repeal of the legislation against gender based violence implies the rejection of its goals and philosophy. The aim of this law is to protect women from the violence that some men use against them. The rationale is that there exists a specific type of violence against women that is related to their historical discrimination and inferior position in society. Despite men and women are equal before the law nowadays, centuries of discrimination have ingrained machista attitudes and a sense of superiority in some men that sometimes are cause of violence. Male chauvinists use to argue this law discriminates men and deny the very existence of gender based violence, despite the fact that women are actually abused and killed. This law has elements of positive discrimination that may be controversial for some, but they are motivated by this historical discrimination and the need to protect women against this type of violence. I don't believe this law violates the presumption of innocence (would it be constitutional?).

The protection of women against gender based violence is one of the few issues where the different political forces found consensus. It may seem surprising, given that confrontation often dominates Spanish politics. This consensus allowed to pass a pioneering law for tackling gender violence from all perspectives. Also, it reflects the feelings and the alarm of the Spanish society with regards to the phenomenon of gender based violence. Despite possible defects or elements  subject to reform (i.e the protection of minor children or the issue with same sex couples), being the first country in Europe to pass a law like this is a matter of pride.

During the 2015 campaign Ciudadanos (by then a non-parliamentary force) advocated the repeal of the law based on a false idea of equality. Oranges were bashed for good reasons and had to rectify. Toni Cantó (Cs deputy, formerly UPyD) tweeted once that a majority of gender violence allegations is false and later had to apologize for believing false information posted on internet. One of the usual strategies of the male activists on the internet is overstating the significance of false allegations without empirical evidence, but they are in fact statistically irrelevant. I have read certain columnists claiming that men in Spain suffer a "silent Holocaust" because of this law, which is hyperbolic, false and nonsensical. Male chauvinism exists and Vox embraces it, as it embraces jingoism, xenophobia and other reactionary causes. I guess they are things a far-right party stands for.
Quote
Cs' vote has always been very unstable so it's no wonder former Cs voters are now defecting to Vox (particularly if they initially left PP based on the Catalonia issue, when Cs got a massive bump). The more interesting thing is that it's taking a non insignificant amount of left wing voters. I imagine most of those are populist Podemos voters. However on the long run it might be a greater threat to PSOE, by taking away from their base in rural Andalucia/Extramadura or the Asturias/Leon former coal fields (taken to the extreme, Asturias becomes Spain's West Virginia)

I agree on the first part: Cs voters tend to be volatile. I disagree on the rest. <to begin with, what is a "populist voter"? I assume that many individuals lack solid ideological convictions, but I suspect that they are not only Podemos and Cs voters. According to Michavila, 10% of Vox voters would come from the left and that's worth noting. However it's not enough to build a theory in the style of "the bulk of the Front National voters were communist supporters". Vox catches primarily in the PP and Cs fishing grounds.

Quote
The remaining maps aren't very surprising, Andalucia is quite polarized on economic class, so it's no wonder that poorer, more unemployed areas lean left while more economically developed areas lean right.

In particular, I think the few urban municipalities that have always voted PSOE (like Dos Hermanas or Alcalá de Guadaira, just south of Sevilla) are also some of the poorest municipalities not just in Andalucia, but in all of Spain.
P

The maps don't need to be surprising. They must be illustrative and useful, especially for outsiders and non-experts.

EDIT: The variables in the Andalusian campaign are 4 (ideology, Catalan crisis, immigration and feminism) and not 3.
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