Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2019, 11:53:22 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Both Sides™)
  Spanish elections and politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 78 79 80 81 82 [83] 84 85 86 87 88 ... 93 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 276182 times)
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2050 on: November 29, 2018, 05:55:07 am »
« edited: December 01, 2018, 04:46:21 am by Velasco »

Final prediction of Kiko Llaneras (aka the Spanish Nate Silver) for El País based on average polling.

Vote share: PSOE 32.8%, PP 21.4%, AA 19.5%, Cs 18%, VOX 4.7%

Img

Probability of winning a majority:

PSOE alone 1%, PSOE+AA 96%, PSOE+Cs 91%, PP+Cs 3% (with VOX 4%)

Seats by province (deep blue: safe, light blue: likely, yellow: at stake)
Img

Contest for the second place:  PP 70%, AA 17%, Cs 11%

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543408692_128203.html


Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2051 on: November 29, 2018, 06:31:05 am »

Politico: "Spanish Right eyes deep south"
https://www.politico.eu/article/andalucia-election-ciudadanos-spanish-right-eyes-deep-south/

Quote
This election, the first since the Socialists took power in Madrid in June, kicks off a flurry of ballots that could transform Spain’s political landscape. In May there are further regional ballots as well as the European Parliament election, and there is also the possibility of an early general election in 2019.

“This Andalusian election is going to be extremely important, not just for the more than 8 million people there, but because of the influence it will have on the overall Spanish electoral cycle,” said sociologist Pablo Simón, of Carlos III University.

As for Ciudadanos, the Andalusia vote will give a clearer idea of whether it is poised to deliver, finally, on its promise as a national electoral force, or whether it will remain the bridesmaid of Spanish politics.

The article linked above is focused on Ciudadanos. Inés Arrimadas, the Cs leader in Catalonia, was born in Andalusia (Jerez de la Frontera) and is very popular there. While campaigning in the Triana, the neighbourhood in Seville where Susana Díaz is from, people greets Arrimadas calling her "heroine". She overshadows completely candidate Juan Marín, who is walking by her side. Inés Arrimadas could be a strong candidate in a general election, if it were not for for the Albert Rivera's uncontested leadership in Cs. Certainly I would prefer her as leader, but I'd never vote for Cs anyway.

Img

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543417538_880017.html
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2052 on: November 29, 2018, 08:15:13 am »
« Edited: November 29, 2018, 08:51:49 am by Velasco »

Teresa Rodríguez, the candidate of Ahora Andalucía (AA), rules out a coalition government with the PSOE. The leader of Podemos in Andalusia reproached Susana Díaz for "putting VOX into the parliament" by including the far-right party in her campaign speeches. Andalusian premier is using VOX to attack PP and Cs, because blues and oranges don't rule out cooperation with the "misogynist" and "xenophobic" party. Teresa Rodríguez says that taking for granted that VOX will enter in parliament is an irresponsibility. She considers that the rise of VOX is the consequence of the fragmentation of the right, not due to the support of new voters.

Teresa Rodríguez makes an interesting description of susanismo* in an interview:

"It's an accommodated second generation PSOE which has not known either union struggle or Francoism, detached from working class, without ideology, which has opened wide the doors to the Right and speaks a language that we are unable to understand. Susanismo is incompatible with socialism (...)

The susanismo is a professionalized and urban-based PSOE that systematically blurs the barriers between government, party and administration."

Teresa Rodríguez says that AA won't permit a right-wing government in any case, but any cooperation with the PSOE will have to be based on programmatic agreements (social policies, education and employment) and it's only possible if socialists turn to the left.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/27/actualidad/1543321149_180017.html

Teresa Rodríguez is from Rota, a town in Cádiz province that hosts an US Naval Station (Navy and Marine Corps). Her partner is José María González (aka Kichi), the Podemos mayor of Cádiz. Teresa Rodríguez ran for Cádiz in 2015 but this time is running for Málaga, It's a strategic decision motivated by the need to strengthen the coalition in that province and Eastern Andalusia. Málaga is a hot contest with PP leader Juan Manuel Moreno running there, as well as the former coach of the Spanish basketball team Javier Imbroda runs for Cs. The IU leader in Andalusia Antonio Maíllo tops the AA list in Seville. There is a good chemistry between Teresa Rodríguez and him, according to the campaign reports.

Img

*Susana Díaz is sometimes compared by rivals and detractors to Eva Perón and her governing style deemed as 'Peronist'.

Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2053 on: November 30, 2018, 07:01:28 am »

Conservative leader Pablo Casado defends his strategy of not attacking Vox arguing that it'd be attacking former PP voters. Casado says that they must show understanding to those voters switching to Vox because they don't feel represented by PP. Casado states that he aspires to lead the Spanish centre-right and aims to bring together that space once voters give the different forces a majority. This point of view is not shared by everybody in his party, with voices inside PP fearing that the Casado turn to the right alienates centrist voters. Other voices remark the surprising influence of a non-parliamentary party in the PP campaign. The fact is that Casado, who represents the right wing of PP, is hardening his stances even more assuming part of the Vox discourse. This becomes evident in the Casado's anti-immigrant proclaims (he resembles Sarkozy in 2012) or in proposals such as the re-devolution of Healthcare, Education and Justice to the central government. VOX not only stands for the re-devolution of competences, since the far-right party advocates for the supression of regional autonomy in Spain: One Country, One Parliament.

The VOX candidate in the Andalusian election is judge Francisco Serrano. Serrano is a vocal opponent to the legislation against gender based violence, which he deems "ideologically motivated". He was disqualified for two years from his position in a Family Court convicted of prevarication, for having modified the visit arrangements of a minor child in order he could go with his father to a Holy Week procession dressed as a Nazarene without asking the mother's permission. Serrano was reinstated as the two years expired, but he hasn't served as a judge again. The Vox candidate has been practising as a lawyer instead, representing fathers and associations and struggling against "radical feminism". Serrano is a "negationist judge" known by his controversial decisions on gender based violence and child custody , says El País.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/19/actualidad/1542624635_420629.html

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/19/actualidad/1542624635_420629.html   
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,046
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2054 on: December 01, 2018, 12:29:11 am »

I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2055 on: December 01, 2018, 04:02:59 am »

I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.

VOX won't reach 10% , but it could get 5% or 6%  and that's too much. Certainly VOX is en route for winning seats in Strasbourg (sure) and in the Spanish Congress (very likely). There are some factors that could limit the VOX's growth, such as the lack of a charisnatic leader or its neoliberal stance in economic policy (here's a difference with Le Pen and Salvini). The demographic profile of its voters is apparently very specific (male, upper middle class, very right wing). I don't know if VOX has potential to break through its limits. The VOX rise has something to do with the fragmentation of the right and the decadence of the PP, the hegemonic party in that space until now. With Casado as PP leader, VOX people will be happy and satisfied.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2056 on: December 01, 2018, 05:07:08 am »
« Edited: December 01, 2018, 05:58:46 am by Velasco »

BREAKING: Former ANC leader Jordi Sánchez and former member of the Catalan government Jordi Turull announce they go on hunger strike. Both Catalan politicians are currently in prison awaiting trial.

In other news this week protests against budget cuts intensified in Catalonia

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/29/inenglish/1543495868_329385.html

Quote
Students and workers from across the public service sector marched in Barcelona on Thursday to demand a reversal of budget cuts and improved working conditions to reflect the economic upturn in the wake of a long economic crisis (...)

The Guardian: "Spanish prime minister facing first test as Andalusia goes to polls"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/30/spanish-prime-minister-facing-tough-test-as-andalucia-goes-to-polls

Quote
The man who has been mayor of Dos Hermanas for the past 35 years offers two words when asked to explain the Spanish socialist party’s enduring success in Andalucía: biological memory.

“Andalucíans are very aware of their origins,” says Francisco Toscano. “This used to be a very class-conscious society in all the wrong ways. Like some other parts of Spain – such as Extremadura – we were always at the back of the queue when it came to economic development.” (...)


Politico: " 5 things to watch in Andalusia's election"

https://www.politico.eu/article/andalucia-eleciones-5-things-to-watch-in-election/

Quote
1. Rise of the far right

2. Wider impact of Vox

3. The Catalan factor

4. Victory without governability?

5. Fight on the right
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,046
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2057 on: December 01, 2018, 07:18:40 am »

My prediction for tomorrow:

30.2% PSOE (-5.2%)
19.5% PP (-7.2%)
19.3% Forward Andalusia (-2.5%)
18.7% C's (+9.4%)
  7.9% VOX (+7.4%)
  1.6% PACMA (+0.8%)
  2.8% Others (-2.7%)

Turnout: 68.6% (+6.3%)
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2058 on: December 01, 2018, 07:31:21 am »

My prediction would be similar to the one I posted yesterday. I'm afraid I'm somewhat conservative on this subject

PSOE 32%, PP 21%, AA 19%, Cs 18%, VOX 5%
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,394
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2059 on: December 01, 2018, 09:12:30 am »

I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.

There's no way Vox reaches double digits in Andalucia. 8% is their ceiling for now and that's generous. They are indeed rising fast and will almost certainly get national and EU presence.

In fact for the 2019 regional elections I could see them getting seats in all regions except Castille-La Mancha (extremely high threshold) and the Canary Islands (4% threshold now, but Vox is a horrible fit for the islands)
Logged
7sergi9
Rookie
*
Posts: 40
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2060 on: December 01, 2018, 09:15:13 am »

Today there was a vox demonstration in Madrid with more than 50000 attendees. That's more than the total votes he achieved in 2016

I think Vox would achieve 7-10% nationally at this time
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,394
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2061 on: December 01, 2018, 09:16:40 am »
« Edited: December 01, 2018, 09:21:35 am by tack50 »

My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania
Logged
7sergi9
Rookie
*
Posts: 40
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2062 on: December 01, 2018, 09:22:33 am »

My Prediction
Psoe:32%
PP:20%
AA:18%
Cs:17%
Vox:8%
Other:5%
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2063 on: December 01, 2018, 09:34:23 am »

Today there was a vox demonstration in Madrid with more than 50000 attendees. That's more than the total votes he achieved in 2016

Local police says 2000 and some people from the Madrid PP attended. They got 10000 people in a recent act in Madrid though.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,394
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2064 on: December 01, 2018, 09:44:05 am »

My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania

Everything is due to OKUPA Sanchez

Actually, there were polls with Rajoy as PM giving Vox 1 seat. Not as many of course, but the first poll with Vox getting seats happened right after the Catalonia UDI in November 2018 (Sociométrica-El Español). Sánchez becoming PM might have helped as well, but I'd certainly pick Catalonia as the spark that lit the fire

Plus, that theory actually doesn't make much sense. If you are a conservative angry at Sánchez, doesn't it make more sense to vote tactically for PP or Cs?
Logged
7sergi9
Rookie
*
Posts: 40
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2065 on: December 01, 2018, 09:51:15 am »

My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania

Everything is due to OKUPA Sanchez

Actually, there were polls with Rajoy as PM giving Vox 1 seat. Not as many of course, but the first poll with Vox getting seats happened right after the Catalonia UDI in November 2018 (Sociométrica-El Español). Sánchez becoming PM might have helped as well, but I'd certainly pick Catalonia as the spark that lit the fire

Plus, that theory actually doesn't make much sense. If you are a conservative angry at Sánchez, doesn't it make more sense to vote tactically for PP or Cs?

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2066 on: December 01, 2018, 12:05:53 pm »


Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

I am Mexican American and follow the news of the case. My Mexican friends say that the migrants deliberately used the children as human shields and the general atmosphere is one of total rejection of the caravan.

You can write your opinions about Spanish politics even if you are Mexican American. Furthermore, Mexican Americans are specially welcomed if they want to discuss Spanish politics. In case you are Spaniard, you lied in the other thread discussing the San Diego-Tijuana border. Why? There's no need to lie.
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,243
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2067 on: December 01, 2018, 12:15:49 pm »

Not very good at predictions, but here goes:

31.8% PSOE-A
21.7% PP-A
19.5% AA
18.0% C's
  4.6% Vox
  1.2% PACMA
  0.6% AxSí
  2.6% Others

66.0% Turnout
Logged
7sergi9
Rookie
*
Posts: 40
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2068 on: December 01, 2018, 12:38:40 pm »


Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

I am Mexican American and follow the news of the case. My Mexican friends say that the migrants deliberately used the children as human shields and the general atmosphere is one of total rejection of the caravan.

You can write your opinions about Spanish politics even if you are Mexican American. Furthermore, Mexican Americans are specially welcomed if they want to discuss Spanish politics. In case you are Spaniard, you lied in the other thread discussing the San Diego-Tijuana border. Why? There's no need to lie.


It may seem crazy, but I did not lie haha, my father is American, my mother was Spanish and I was born in Mexico. Technically, both at the same time, right? I'm currently writing from Mexico while I watch Amlo take over.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2069 on: December 01, 2018, 02:38:17 pm »
« Edited: December 01, 2018, 02:41:20 pm by Velasco »


Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

I am Mexican American and follow the news of the case. My Mexican friends say that the migrants deliberately used the children as human shields and the general atmosphere is one of total rejection of the caravan.

You can write your opinions about Spanish politics even if you are Mexican American. Furthermore, Mexican Americans are specially welcomed if they want to discuss Spanish politics. In case you are Spaniard, you lied in the other thread discussing the San Diego-Tijuana border. Why? There's no need to lie.


It may seem crazy, but I did not lie haha, my father is American, my mother was Spanish and I was born in Mexico. Technically, both at the same time, right? I'm currently writing from Mexico while I watch Amlo take over.

Then I assume that you have dual citizenship (US- Spanish), so you can vote. In that case it's alright. I had doubts when I read that post and I think they were reasonable.  

AMLO takes over by winning the popular vote. It's not a small thing

https://www.google.es/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/amlo-will-be-inaugurated-as-mexicos-president-vowing-to-transform-the-country/2018/11/30/d3014f4c-f267-11e8-99c2-cfca6fcf610c_story.html

Curious fact: AMLO invited the premier of Cantabria Miguel Ángel Revilla to his ranch and to attend his takeover. Both are friends since Revilla invited AMLO to visit the Spanish northern region, where the Mexican president has family roots

https://m.eldiario.es/norte/cantabria/politica/Revilla-acompana-Lopez-Obrador-posesion_0_840965975.html

Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2070 on: December 02, 2018, 01:56:28 am »

"Spain signs landmark agreements with UK over Gibraltar"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/30/inenglish/1543581262_378313.html

Quote
Spain and the United Kingdom have signed the most important bilateral agreement over Gibraltar in more than a decade. On Thursday, the governments of both countries officially signed four Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) on the future of Gibraltar, a British Overseas Territory in the south of the Iberian peninsula, once the UK leaves the European Union, a process known as Brexit.

The agreements are aimed at reducing inequality between the Rock and Campo de Gibraltar, the neighboring Spanish region in Andalusia where high unemployment and drug trafficking are major problems.

The lack of public debate on immigration amplifies the message of VOX and Pablo Cased, complain experts and NGOs. Vox leaders repeat in campaign acts that immigrants are "an invasion that came to replace us". This message presenting immigration as a threat to "western values" and linking arrivals by sea with rise in delinquency is the only message that has been sent during the campaign, since the other parties barely said anything about this topic.

All parliamentary parties have proposals on immigration in their platforms, mainly on the topic of unaccompanied minors because it falls within the competences of regional government. The Cs platform, however, lacks of specific proposals and only has a paragraph with generic mentions to the migrant's drama. This has been a record-breaking year in what regards arrivals by sea.

The Andalusian government led by Susana Díaz has been particularly contentious on the issue of unaccompanied minors. As a result of its tenacity, the Spanish government issued a decree distributing 40 million of euros between the regions. Andalusia reclaimed as well solidarity from other regions in the distribution of minors. However, these demands disappeared in campaign in order to avoid criticism on the regional government's management.

The campaign of Ahora Andalucía has been introducing the coalition's proposals on immigration as the sad news of people disappeared at the Sea of Alboran came in. Teresa Rodríguez said in Almería that more resources must be devoted to fight the people traffickers, in order to not make their work easy. Rodríguez mentioned the case of a pregnant woman drowned in the sea three times during the campaign. 

PP candidate Juanma Moreno stands for an "orderly immigration", emphasizing that it's important to avoid to act with frivolity "as Pedro Sánchez did with the complicity of Susana Díaz". The tone of the Moreno's discourse is more moderate than the proclaims of national leader Pablo Casado, who has launched a parallel campaign overshadowing the Andalusian candidate.

Cs has said nothing on the topic, even avoiding to attend debates promoted by associations and NGOs. Finally the spokesperson of a Human Rights association says that Almeria is a province that would not have the wealth it possess without immigrants,  so going there with xenophobic messages is "lamentable"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543434990_381282.html
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,046
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2071 on: December 02, 2018, 01:57:59 am »

Velasco:

Where can one find official results for todays regional election in Andalusia ?

When are the polls closing ?

Is there an "exit poll" and where ?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,284
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2072 on: December 02, 2018, 02:20:40 am »

Velasco:

Where can one find official results for todays regional election in Andalusia ?

When are the polls closing ?

Is there an "exit poll" and where ?


Provisional results can be found at the regional government's site. Media outlets (El País, El Mundo, whatever) will share the same results in real time. I'll post some links this evening, unless someone posts before me.

Polls close at 20:00 CET.

I think this year there won't be exit polls in Andalusia, since the regional broadcaster Canal Sur is not going to release one this time. Anyway vote counts in Spain are quite fast, so we will go to bed knowing the results.


Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,046
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2073 on: December 02, 2018, 03:43:19 am »

Thanks.

It seems this is the official results page:

https://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2018.es/Inicio

"Avances de participación" means turnout. Turnout reports will come at 2pm and 6pm.

"Resultados provisionales" means preliminary results.
Logged
crals
Rookie
*
Posts: 32
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2074 on: December 02, 2018, 06:52:41 am »

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too
What is so radical about Sánchez?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 78 79 80 81 82 [83] 84 85 86 87 88 ... 93 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC