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seb_pard
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« Reply #2175 on: December 04, 2018, 06:33:25 pm »

Horrible results, although the demise of the socialists was totally expected. The campaign was simply horrible and they deserved it because they brought VOX to the campaign, although the media has a strong responsibility. They started to talk about VOX for months as if the party had a strong poll %, despite the party was polling around the same percentage as PACMA. They created a monster.

What I didn't expect was Adelante Andalucia's results, there are no words to describe that result. I don't think that could bring more friction between Rodriguez and Iglesias, but could bring a war in Izquierda Unida. I think the organization's old guard never liked these confluencias (too much power for Iglesias?) and they probably didn't participate enough in the campaign and will start to campaign against these types of organizations.

About the effect in Catalunya, is a very difficult situation for the soberanists, because this enforce the message that Spain is unfixable, but right now If I were a soberanist leader (and this includes the basques parties and Compromis) I would be terrified of early elections and would try to work with Pedro Sanchez. Strong Vox and Ciudadanos with a PP ruled by its right-wing faction could be terrible for the autonomies.

On Vox results, there is a good article published by eldiario about El Ejido before the election, anticipating a good result for Vox. Seems a place with many señoritos and their friends that vote for Vox and there is a lack of working class organizations (I saw turnout in the map from eldiario and actually is very low there). Horrible people.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-crece-invernaderos-Almeria_0_840966249.html

Other thing, I think the Spanish political process is more related to LatAm than Europe in some aspects, including the rise of far right parties (increasing after the rise in Europe and mostly supported by upper class voters).



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Velasco
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« Reply #2176 on: December 04, 2018, 08:04:17 pm »
« Edited: December 05, 2018, 06:01:33 am by Velasco »



On Vox results, there is a good article published by eldiario about El Ejido before the election, anticipating a good result for Vox. Seems a place with many señoritos and their friends that vote for Vox and there is a lack of working class organizations (I saw turnout in the map from eldiario and actually is very low there). Horrible people.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-crece-invernaderos-Almeria_0_840966249.html

Other thing, I think the Spanish political process is more related to LatAm than Europe in some aspects, including the rise of far right parties (increasing after the rise in Europe and mostly supported by upper class voters).

The working class in El Ejido are immigrant labourers (both legal and illegal) employed in the extensive greenhouses that dominate the landscape. They are not unionized workers, obviously. Immigrants are about 30% of the population and come mainly from Morocco, Sub Saharan Africa and Romania. There is something about the mentality of the farmers transformed into entrepeneurs that says nothing good about them. The same farmers that employ immigrant workforce have a negative opinion of them and many voted for VOX, according to media reports. There is a big hypocrisy in this that is really disgusting. Horrible,  yes.

It's difficult to understand why the PSOE's establishment liked Dusana Diaz so much. As some journalist wrote, she never won a battle in open field. Pablo Casado is  at least as responsible as Diaz or even more, because he has mimicked and amplified the Vox's message. Cs avoided to confront its alleged liberalism (fake, in my opinion) to the counterparts of Le Pen. Anyway there are underlying causes such as the subdued indignation caused by the unilateral attempt of secession in Catalonia and others. There is a climate in the country (and the international situation) that favours anti-politics, demagoguery and the far right. Vox's entry was expected but very few predicted the violence of this explosion. Many voters in the last moment switched to them.

As for AA, I think that the Pidemos' factionalism and the infighting are regrettable. There are many IU voters reluctant to support alliances with Podemos, because they feel it's losing identity and assuming a secondary role. Also, there are oeople disillusioned thinking that Podemos forgot its origins and became too "institutional". All these factors may have contributed to demobilize the base, cause of the disappointing performance. It was hard for them because the campaign left a good impression.
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« Reply #2177 on: December 04, 2018, 08:25:54 pm »

Is it safe to write Podemos' obituary at this point in the timeline?
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Velasco
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« Reply #2178 on: December 04, 2018, 09:04:49 pm »

Is it safe to write Podemos' obituary at this point in the timeline?

No. Podemos is in a downward trend, but it's far from being dead. It's more likely at this point that Podemos becomes in the equivalent of La France Insoumise. They are already similar in ideology and leadership style (I think the 'cult sect trait is more accentuated in FI). I mean equivalent in what regards that FI has a significant support but it seems irrelevant in terms of political influence. Since its foundation Podemos has been a major actor in Spanish politics  and its influence is undeniable. However, Podemos has lost momentum...
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #2179 on: December 05, 2018, 04:55:28 am »

Fascinating map of results by precinct or census section. You can zoom in and out throughout Andalusia and click on the map to see the result in a specific location, or type an adress in the box...

https://m.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html

Great map.
In particular, I find it very interesting how the center-left is completely annihilated downtown in all the largest cities (in Sevilla, PP+VOX get more than 60% pretty much everywhere).
This in in stark contrast to the urban/rural divide that's going on in the last few years, not least in Italy where PD is now the "party of the city center".
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tack50
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« Reply #2180 on: December 05, 2018, 05:32:21 am »
« Edited: December 05, 2018, 05:35:22 am by tack50 »

Worth noting that in Spain the more sough you go, the more reversed the left/right axis is. In places like Galicia you can certainly see your standard cities=left; rurals=right scheme. However in much of Spain this is revresed, especially in the South (Andalucía, Extremadura, parts of Castille-La Mancha)

The most common explanation is that in these areas there's a minority of wealthy landowners (like for example the famous Duke of Alba) and a lot of rural poor peasants who vote left.

There are also areas where there isn't a rural/urban divide at all, Aragon being probably the best example.

Finally, in "nationalist" regions (Catalonia/Basque Country) while the divide is still there, it isn't on left/right issues but on nationalism/unionism issues. Unionist parties perform great in Barcelona and Bilbao's suburbs and metropolitan area (also smaller cities like San Sebastián or Tarragona) and border areas which are more "culturally Spanish" or different from Catalonia/Basque Country (southern Álava, Aran Valley). Meanwhile secessionists perform best in rural areas.

Also, Sánchez has backtracked and he will now bring a budget to parliament. Before he claimed that he wouldn't even attempt that. He also seems to be attacking secessionists slightly. I don't think he really expects it to pass so maybe he is trying to prepare the country for early elections?
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Velasco
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« Reply #2181 on: December 05, 2018, 05:46:58 am »

Fascinating map of results by precinct or census section. You can zoom in and out throughout Andalusia and click on the map to see the result in a specific location, or type an adress in the box...

https://m.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html

Great map.
In particular, I find it very interesting how the center-left is completely annihilated downtown in all the largest cities (in Sevilla, PP+VOX get more than 60% pretty much everywhere).
This in in stark contrast to the urban/rural divide that's going on in the last few years, not least in Italy where PD is now the "party of the city center".

Downtown Madrid and Barcelona are more left leaning. Neighbourhoods like Lavapies in Madrid or Barri Gotic in Barcelona are Podemos strongholds. However there are other cities where the downtown is very right wing: Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza, Málaga. .. I guess they are demographically different
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Velasco
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« Reply #2182 on: December 05, 2018, 08:46:07 am »
« Edited: December 05, 2018, 09:01:02 am by Velasco »

The results in Poligono Sur are interesting. It's a working class, low income area south of Sevilla (Las Tres Mil Viviendas). It's very left wing, as you could expect. The most noticeable feature is the very low turnout*. Compare to right wing precincts in central Sevilla with turnouts above 70%.

* There is a small precinct near Las Letanías with an 8% turnout! (Distrito 05, sección 045)


https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polígono_Sur_(Sevilla)


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rob in cal
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« Reply #2183 on: December 05, 2018, 01:04:54 pm »

 So the downtown parts of Sevilla went heavily against the left.  Demographically what are these areas like, wealthy, older, upscale, well-educated?
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Velasco
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« Reply #2184 on: December 05, 2018, 07:38:42 pm »

So the downtown parts of Sevilla went heavily against the left.  Demographically what are these areas like, wealthy, older, upscale, well-educated?

Downtown Sevilla, that is to say the old historical quarters of the city, is comprised in a municipal district called Casco Antiguo. The district leans to the PP but it's not the more conservative part of the city. The districts of Los Remedios and Nervión are affluent and more right wing. Casco Antiguo is a touristic district and  many of the city's nightlife is located there.

Some demographic data of the district provided by the city council:

- The population pyramid shows that the district is ageing: 20% is above 64 years. The bulk of the population is between 40 and 44. No signs of natality recovery: there are less children aged 0-4 than aged 5-9. Women are 53.06% (Sevilla 52.49%) of the population and double men in the group above 70. Average age 44.45 (Sevilla 42.65); 6th highest ratio among the 11 districts.

-The proportion of foreign nationals (including EU) is 8.9 (Sevilla 5.2). Second highest ratio in the city behind Macarena.

-The average number of members by household is 2.16 (2.5). It's the lowest ratio in the city and suggest that there is a higher proportion of single member households. The district has the lowest ratio of households with at least one minor living in (20%)

The average income in Sevilla is 29929 Euros. The more affluent district is Los Remedios (42984) and the less affluent is Cerro-Amate (18866). Casco Antiguo ranks fourth with an average income of 33687 Euros.

At a neighbourhood level, the most affluent in Sevilla is Santa Clara (San Pablo-anta Justa district) with an average income around 50000 Euros, 4 times more than the poorer (Los Pajaritos in Cerro-Amate district).

I could find data for education and other indicators if I search more, but it's a bit late. I guess Downtown Sevilla is above average too.

Results in Casco Antiguo:

PP 26.3% (40.5% in 2015), AA 20.2%, Cs 19.3%, VOX 15.5%, PSOE 13.9%

Downtown Sevilla was never a good place for the PSOE, but this time the result was terrible.



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palandio
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« Reply #2185 on: December 06, 2018, 04:08:45 am »

In many European cities there is a huge political difference between the historical center and the surrounding inner-city high-density residential quarters (usually from 1850-1914). Not differentiating between them often leads to confusion.

In many central European cities the historical center is relatively conservative, while most of the surrounding areas are left-wing strongholds.

In many southern European cities the historical center shows very strong results for the radical left, while the surrounding areas are extremely bourgeois.
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tack50
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« Reply #2186 on: December 06, 2018, 08:34:40 am »

Apparently Vox has released a list of requests to support a government. I imagine this will be further discussed in government negotiations but it's a starting point and gives an idea of their priorities:

1: Close down the regional government owned TV broadcaster: Canal Sur

2: Return healthcare to the central government

3: Return education to the central government

4: Audit and replace the infamous "Plan of Agrarian Employment" (PER), often seen as a waste of money and corruption by the right

5: Study the abolition of "superflous government organizations"

6: Defending hunting and bullfighting

7: Repealing gender related laws, including the gender violence law of 2004

8: Repealing the "Historic Memory law", which has to do with how the Civil War is treated

9: Repealing the inheritance tax

10: Reducing income tax

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2018/12/05/politica/1544034782_431367.html

Worth noting that proposals 1-3 go against Andalucia's statute of autonomy and would require a 2/3 majority, approval by the Congress of Deputies and a referendum. In other words, unachievable.

5,6,9 and 10 are doable by the regional government easily. Probably 4 as well.

Finally, proposals 7 and 8 could only repeal any extra Andalusian laws, but not the national laws passed in 2005 and 2006.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2187 on: December 06, 2018, 08:49:38 am »

In many European cities there is a huge political difference between the historical center and the surrounding inner-city high-density residential quarters (usually from 1850-1914). Not differentiating between them often leads to confusion.

In many central European cities the historical center is relatively conservative, while most of the surrounding areas are left-wing strongholds.

In many southern European cities the historical center shows very strong results for the radical left, while the surrounding areas are extremely bourgeois.

As I said before, the historical centers of Madrid and Barcelona lean Podemos.  In the case of Barcelona it's more complicated. The district of Ciutat Vella ("Old City") backed strongly Ada Colau in the 2015 local elections and voted for En Comu Podem in the general elections of 2015 and 2016, but the support dropped in regional elections as it happened elsewhere (still the strongest place in Barcelona). In the central district of Madrid, the support for Podemos is very strong in the neighbourhood of Lavapies,  which is a place with singular characteristics. Lavapies is an old quarter traditionally poor and the proportion of immigrant population is very high. Many students,  left wingers and people with alternative lifestyles seek refuge there, but gentrification is going underway and rents are rising very fast... Podemos was launched in a theatre located in Lavapies.

In most of the main Spanish capitals the city centre leans to the right. In some cases the surrounding inner-city neighbourhoods are burgueois (Chamberi or Salamanca in Madrid), particularly the off-walls city expansions built in the XIX century (Eixample in Barcelona, similar neighbourhoods in other cities). These expansions are differentiated from the city centre. Inner city areas that are old villages absorbed by the city's growth may lean to the left sometimes. The working class and poorer neighbourhoods are often placed in the periphery, in areas built to absorb the immigrant population from the countryside or other regions since the 50s and the 60s in the XX century...
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tack50
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« Reply #2188 on: December 06, 2018, 10:07:24 am »
« Edited: December 06, 2018, 10:15:14 am by tack50 »

Yes and no. As you say, in Madrid and Barcelona the city center proper leans left quite hard. In Madrid Centro is probably one of the most left wing districts alongside Villa de Vallecas and Puente de Vallecas (low income districts in Madrid's periphery)

Same in Barcelona where Ciutat Vella is the most pro-Podemos district though I'm unsure of what district is the most left wing overall because of the independence debate now being the main factor in Catalan politics.

As for other cities, it seems to vary, but the city center even when it leans right it's not always the most right wing part of town and there are other exceptions than Madrid and Barcelona. Here are several examples from the 2015 local elections:

Valencia

Img


Img


You can clearly see PP performing well in Ciutat Vella though it's not its strongest district, that seems to be the 19th century Eixample, Pla del Real and Extramurs.

Bilbao

Img


Img


This one is quite weird in that the district that contains the old medieval city center is actually Ibaiondo-Casco Viejo which is actually a very left wing stronhold! (with strong results for Podemos and Bildu).

I imagine Abando is the more bourgeois 19th century city expansion looking at the strong PNV and especially PP results? Taking a quick look at Wikipedia it seems Abando used to be its own town and then got engulfed by Bilbao in its 19th century expansion.

Zaragoza

Img


Img


Worth noting that the Zaragoza municipal boundary includes several rural areas. In the map, the red and "light green" districts are considered mostly rural while the blue ones are considered urban districts.

In any case you can see that the strongest results for PP came in the Centro and Casco Antiguo districts (and the peripheral Distrito Sur). I imagine the same pattern holds here, where Casco Antiguo is the old medieval city center while Centro is the "new city center" from the 19th century.

Interestingly you can see a Madrid-like pattern with Podemos performing well in Casco Antiguo, but not in Centro.

Alicante

Img


Here, District 1 seems to correspond to the old city center as it has the town hall and the port. And this time, its a massive PP stronghold with its best results city wide.

Badajoz

Finally, a smaller city. And here again the city center does give PP great results

Img
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Velasco
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« Reply #2189 on: December 06, 2018, 10:29:39 am »
« Edited: December 06, 2018, 12:07:07 pm by Velasco »

Some details with regards to the sresults in the district of Casco Antiguo in Sevilla. The district is divided in 12 neighbourhoods. Looking at the map of results by precinct it becomes evident that there is a clear divide between the central and southern neighbourhoods (very right wing) and the northern neighbourhoods (left wing with a strong AA support). The neighbourhood of El Arenal (located by the left side of the river in the south of the district) strikes as the more conservative place, with PP as the first party and Vpx coming in second place. The Santa Cruz neighbourhood by the river (Sevilla Cathedral) has similar results. In neighbourhoods like San Bernardo or La Salud PP comes first, while Cs and Vox are second depending on precincts. To the north the neighbourhoods of San Gil, Feria and San Lorenzo lean clearly to the left, with AA polling above 35% in some precincts.  
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Velasco
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« Reply #2190 on: December 06, 2018, 10:31:29 am »

Some of the maps in the previous post are mine Wink
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tack50
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« Reply #2191 on: December 06, 2018, 10:49:37 am »

Some of the maps in the previous post are mine Wink

Oh, I didn't know that! Great maps!
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« Reply #2192 on: December 06, 2018, 10:51:39 am »

Thank you, Velasco and tack50! Very interesting informations.

And again I'm trying to generalize: Spanish inner-cities in a wider sense (including the 19th century expansions) are usually quite conservative, at least seen as a whole. But there can be areas that have a strong alternative left (Podemos or similar, not PSOE) and these areas are often the historical city centers or parts thereof, or former inner-city poor-people quarters.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2193 on: December 06, 2018, 11:20:07 am »

Thank you, Velasco and tack50! Very interesting informations.

And again I'm trying to generalize: Spanish inner-cities in a wider sense (including the 19th century expansions) are usually quite conservative, at least seen as a whole. But there can be areas that have a strong alternative left (Podemos or similar, not PSOE) and these areas are often the historical city centers or parts thereof, or former inner-city poor-people quarters.

Pretty much. Barri Gotic in Barcelona and Lavapies in Madrid fall clearly in the last typology. El Arenal in downtown Sevilla is very posh, the kind of place in the city where the archetypal Andslusian señorito can live. I guess the neighbourhoods in central Sevilla that voted for AA fall in the typology of working class inner-city neighbourhoods as well.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2194 on: December 06, 2018, 02:04:22 pm »

Some of the maps in the previous post are mine Wink

Oh, I didn't know that! Great maps!

Go back in this thread and you'll find maps of the 2015 elections (local, regional and general). There are several city maps at district level
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Velasco
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« Reply #2195 on: December 07, 2018, 03:54:47 am »

Troubled anniversary

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/06/inenglish/1544084057_287552.html

Quote
Spain is observing Constitution Day on Thursday, which marks the 40th anniversary of the document that officialized the country’s transition to democracy following four decades of dictatorial rule by Francisco Franco.

State and government officials addressed Congress to call for national unity and urge respect for the country’s institutions at a time when Spain is facing new challenges from the Catalan secessionist drive, political fragmentation, criticism of the judiciary and the rise of the far right.

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yeah_93
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« Reply #2196 on: December 07, 2018, 12:08:07 pm »

So I recently moved to Spain and wanted to explore the electoral trends in a few places. Is there a site that lets me see results by district? Or one that has interactive maps. The Infoelectoral site doesn't have a breakdown by district. Any help would be appreciated!
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tack50
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« Reply #2197 on: December 07, 2018, 12:27:07 pm »
« Edited: December 07, 2018, 12:32:55 pm by tack50 »

So I recently moved to Spain and wanted to explore the electoral trends in a few places. Is there a site that lets me see results by district? Or one that has interactive maps. The Infoelectoral site doesn't have a breakdown by district. Any help would be appreciated!

What do you mean by district? If you mean by constituency/province there are certainly several. Historia electoral is a particularly good resource in my opinion with a lot of information, though it doesn't have maps at all.

http://www.historiaelectoral.com/es.html

If you mean by municipality though, those are much much harder to find. El Mundo has maps available for the last 3 general elections (2011, 2015, 2016):

https://www.elmundo.es/grafico/espana/2016/06/27/57709ec1e5fdea870f8b4618.html

Alternatively, Público has a database with results by municipality for all general elections, but no maps other than at the provincial level:

https://especiales.publico.es/resultados-elecciones/generales/2000/

(replace 2000 with the appropiate election year)

Finally there's this resource at the Ministry of the Interior which has apparently information by municipality and even allegedly by precinct! It has information for every kind of election except for regional elections (for those you'd have to go to the appropiate site from each regional government) However it's harder to use since it doesn't give percentages and has huge Excel spreadsheets. Still, if you are familiar with statistics programs you should be able to do a lot with it.

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/infoelectoral/min/areaDescarga.html?method=inicio
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Velasco
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« Reply #2198 on: December 07, 2018, 01:04:47 pm »

Historical results by municipality are easily available at infoelectoral. The Ministry of the Interior collects data for general, local, EP elections and referenda. Infoelectoral has results at municipal district level, but only for a few major cities: Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza, Málaga and Bilbao

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/

Results of regional elections at constituency and municipal level are available at the websites of the different regional governments.

The websites of some city councils such as Madrid and Barcelona have results at neighbourhood level (subdivision of the municipal district) for local, regional or general elections. This information is not available in all the major municipalities.

Finally there's  data at precinct level available in Excels


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yeah_93
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« Reply #2199 on: December 07, 2018, 02:34:11 pm »

Thank you. I'll use those links. I also found one from El País, and I find it quite useful:

https://resultados.elpais.com/resultats/eleccions/2016/generals/congreso/

The websites of some city councils such as Madrid and Barcelona have results at neighbourhood level (subdivision of the municipal district) for local, regional or general elections. This information is not available in all the major municipalities.

Thank you, this is more or less what I was looking for.
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