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Velasco
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« Reply #2250 on: January 11, 2019, 11:42:00 am »
« edited: January 11, 2019, 01:51:22 pm by Velasco »

The agreement between PP and Vox is not surprising at all. Vox came out with an extremist 19 point proposal in order to create a shock and get media attention (that's the Steve Bannon's handbook). PP claims Vox demands are "unacceptable", but it doesn't leave the table. Subsequently Vox gives up some of the most unrealistic and extravagant demands (repeal legislation against gender based violence, expel 52000 illegal immigrants) and both parties reach an agreement whitewashing part of the far right agenda. On the other hand, Cs rejects to negotiate with Vox and claims the separate agreement between PP and the far right is a "paper tiger". Vox leader Santiago Abascal mocks the oranges in Twitter calling them a "French party" pledging allegiance to Emperor Macron. Etcetera.

All these moves are largely tinkering.  Pure theater. The deal between the three parties on the right was never in peril. Andalusia is a huge haul and the cordon sanitaire was never on the table.  The Spanish Trumpists will condition the policies of the new Andalusian government because their 12 votes are neccesary to pass legislation.

The editor of eldiario.es Ignacio Escolar analyzed the small print of the agreement between PP and Vox (Spanish)

https://m.eldiario.es/escolar/letra-pequena-acuerdo-PP-Vox_6_855724436.html
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2251 on: January 16, 2019, 02:15:04 am »

Each new day brings worse results for PSOE. Clear PP-C's-Vox govt, no majority for any government that could be formed based on the Left or Left-center. Most notably, they have Vox winning something in mainland Spain, rather then simply being confined to the African enclaves.

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Velasco
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« Reply #2252 on: January 16, 2019, 06:13:44 am »
« Edited: January 16, 2019, 09:19:21 am by Velasco »

I'm not sure about its accuracy (I get the idea this 'panel' is based on on opinions, or something), but electomania is not a poll. Just saying.

On the other hand, the trend is clear. Spain seems to be leaning to the right and there is an extremist monentum. As long as the focus is on identity politics (Catalonia, immigration, whatever) the right wins. The only hope for the left is to turn the focus to social policies (raise of minimum wage, for instance) or to mobilize its base on the fear to the hard right. Let's see what happens on March 8, the Women's Day. Feminism is going to be one of the main bulwarks against the reactionaries. There were some demonstrations across Spain yesterday, protesting against the backward of women's rights advocated by Vox. I'm not sure about the best way to tackle the far right menace, but it's important that the voice of decent people is heard. Anyway I see pointless protesting against the presence of the far right in parliament (another question is protecting against its agenda), since extremists won seats because people voted for them. It'd be better to fight them with facts and arguments and turning out to vote.

The prospect of a right wing nationalist government propped up by Vox scares me. I'm deeply concerned about the future of my country under the right-wing tripartite. Certainly I will go to vote for Sánchez or the Left, even if they disappoint me.
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tack50
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« Reply #2253 on: January 16, 2019, 10:50:21 am »

I'm not sure about its accuracy (I get the idea this 'panel' is based on on opinions, or something), but electomania is not a poll. Just saying.

On the other hand, the trend is clear. Spain seems to be leaning to the right and there is an extremist monentum. As long as the focus is on identity politics (Catalonia, immigration, whatever) the right wins. The only hope for the left is to turn the focus to social policies (raise of minimum wage, for instance) or to mobilize its base on the fear to the hard right. Let's see what happens on March 8, the Women's Day. Feminism is going to be one of the main bulwarks against the reactionaries. There were some demonstrations across Spain yesterday, protesting against the backward of women's rights advocated by Vox. I'm not sure about the best way to tackle the far right menace, but it's important that the voice of decent people is heard. Anyway I see pointless protesting against the presence of the far right in parliament (another question is protecting against its agenda), since extremists won seats because people voted for them. It'd be better to fight them with facts and arguments and turning out to vote.

The prospect of a right wing nationalist government propped up by Vox scares me. I'm deeply concerned about the future of my country under the right-wing tripartite. Certainly I will go to vote for Sánchez or the Left, even if they disappoint me.

For what's worth, even though electomanía is far from a traditional pollster, they were one of the most accurate pollster for the Andalusian elections which everyone got wrong.

They've certainly proven themselves IMO, even if their methodology might be somewhat questionable. Then again they performed polls after the ban, which allowed them to register the last minute Vox surge.

As for everything else yes, the left is heading towards certain defeat, somewhere between the scale of 2000 and 2011. The only silver lining is that Cs might prop up some conservative PSOE premiers (Fernández Vara of Extremadura and García Page of Castille-La Mancha easily come to mind) even if there's a right wing majority and that the right is divided, which hurts it overall, keep in mind that if the right was united under one party (as in the old 2 party system days) 50% would set a new record for a single party, probably beating González's record of 202 seats and 48%; and maybe giving them a 3/5 constitutional majority.

Meanwhile most seat allocations give them "only" around 180-185 seats, which is an overall majority but very far from a 3/5 majority (210). Some even put them outside a majority!

As for the reaction, I don't think feminism will be the only (or even the best IMO) reaction. Other parts of Vox's platform are more controversial for me, like their anti EU stance (Spain is still very much pro EU I think and hope) or their hate for autonomous communities (though there's certainly a lot of people who do want them gone)

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Velasco
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« Reply #2254 on: January 16, 2019, 11:26:24 am »
« Edited: January 16, 2019, 12:51:37 pm by Velasco »

I think electomania is not a pollster, neither "traditional" nor anything else. I remember years ago that site was a place where election junkies, partisan hacks and some trolls discussed the polls released in Spain (and sometimes international polls, too). I don't know which "methodology" they use (average predictions made by members, pethaps?), but in any case they are not professionals. Maybe they are good making predictions or they are occasionally spotted on, maybe they have access to data from actual pollsters during the last week ban. I don't know. Just saying that it's important to make the distinction between polls and predictions regardless "methodology" (average polling, intuition or whatever). I know that GAD3 (an actial pollster) was working during the last days of the Andalusian campaign and recorded the Vox surge.

The fight for women's rights is going to be very important in the following months, since Vox has made anti-feminism one of its main battle horses. Like it or not, the feminist movement is one of the most important vectors of democracy in the present time.
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« Reply #2255 on: January 16, 2019, 12:49:13 pm »

Juanma Moreno has just been elected the President of Andalucia with the votes of his PP (26) in coalition with Cs (21) with support of Vox (12) - 59 out of 109 votes.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2256 on: January 16, 2019, 01:48:08 pm »
« Edited: January 16, 2019, 01:51:20 pm by Velasco »

Juanma Moreno has just been elected the President of Andalucia with the votes of his PP (26) in coalition with Cs (21) with support of Vox (12) - 59 out of 109 votes.

This is the beginning of a new era. It's a tragedy that change in Andalusia comes together the influence of the xenophobic and misogynist Vox. The deal between PP, Cs and the far right was not the only alternative. It's also a shame that career politician Susana Diaz has not resigned yet, as she is the main obstacle to a much needed renewal of the Andalusian PSOE. As for the fake liberals led by Albert Rivera, the opportunistic nature of Cs is portrayed by its association to the likes of Le Pen (take due note of your allies, Beautiful Flawless Macron).

The English version of El País says that Vox made its "maiden speech" yesterday at regional parliament. Isn't it amusing the use of the word "maiden" given the vocal anti-feminism of said party? The amusement, however, ends abruptly when you read the quotes of Francisco Serrano

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/01/16/inenglish/1547639931_037405.html

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Skye
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« Reply #2257 on: January 16, 2019, 02:06:30 pm »

Interesting how they show C's winning Madrid and Valladolid. It's such a far cry from the 2016 election PP still wins my home province (Palencia).
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Anomalocaris🌹
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« Reply #2258 on: January 16, 2019, 02:45:04 pm »

or their hate for autonomous communities (though there's certainly a lot of people who do want them gone)

Do elaborate.
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tack50
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« Reply #2259 on: January 16, 2019, 06:39:11 pm »

or their hate for autonomous communities (though there's certainly a lot of people who do want them gone)

Do elaborate.

Well, Spain while it's not a fully federalized country it does have a very high level of devolution, with its 17 autonomous communities acting as sort of federal entities but not quite.

One of Vox's star proposals is to basically abolish this and make Spain a centralized country, like say France or England. To quote them directly

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In all fairness, getting rid of autonomous communities as Vox proposes, or even limiting their powers in many cases requires either:

a) A constitutional reform. Abolishing them entirely actually requires the "severe" procedure and not the standard one, it's one of the more protected parts of the constitution

b) The autonomous communities themselves voluntarily relinquishing power. This requires regional supermajorities in most cases (usually 3/5 or 2/3) as it requires reforming (or more precisely, repealing I guess) the "statute of autonomy", sort of its "state constitution". Then the national Congress has to ratify said reform (by an overall majority). Finally in some cases a referendum is required.

So it's probably not happening any time soon.

It does poll fairly well though. According to CIS (a thrash pollster now, but they ask this question every month) 21% of Spaniards support abolishing autonomous communities completely while a further 10% wants their competences cut down.

Worth noting that 13% want more competences (not less) and 11% wants autonomous communities to have the right of self-determination so it's a polarizing issue. Finally 39% want to keep them as they are now and 7% is undecided.

Then again considering this is CIS we are talking about, though the numbers do seem plausible overall.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2260 on: January 16, 2019, 08:03:36 pm »

The CIS is still good collecting data, regardless the questionable methodology of the vote estimations. Pedro Sánchez made a mistake appointing his close friend Félix Tezanos as the CIS chief pollster. Tezanos is qualified as he is sociologist, but he is also a partisan hack and is destroying the credibility of the sociological institute. In any case the raw data is as good as always and I do give credibility to those figures.  Supporters of re-centralization (either unitary state or less devolution) are increasing and the trend is not new.

As for the Vox proposal to abolish regional autonomy, as said before it's unworkable due to lack of quorum for constitutional reform. However PP is adbovating the re-devolution to central government of healthcare, education and justice (the first step towards the unitary state in the Vox handbook). Cs likely would support re-devolution, so it's possible that a nationalist right wing government will cut devolved powers and regional autonomy. Maybe Aznar or the right wing parties have spme plan already (for sure they have re-devolution mind). PNV is particularly scared with the prospect of a central administration attacking the special tax system of the Basque Country. That's ine of the reasons why the Basque Nationalist Party tried unsuccessfully to moderate Catalan separatists and prevent that Puigdemont was doing stupid things.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2261 on: January 16, 2019, 08:19:23 pm »

The CIS is an institute of sociological research depending on the Spanish government that conducts polls on a varied range of issues, including elections. The CIS fieldwork is based on face-to-face interviews and is very appreciated by sociologists, pollsters and electoral analysts. Spanish particularity.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2262 on: January 17, 2019, 10:10:45 am »

The Mayor of Madrid Manuela Carmena and Iñigo Errejon released this morning a joint letter announcing their alliance. Errejon will run as candidate in the region of Madrid under the Carnena's banner Más Madrid ("More Madrid") instead of the Unidos Podemos banner. Apparently this move has caught Podemos leadership unaware. Currently the negotiations between Carmena and Podemos to put together the list for the municipal elections are stalled. There are differences between Errejon and the Podemos and IU leaderships on the composition of the regional list. Errejon wants his ally Clara Serra (Podemos spokeswoman in the regional parliament) as number two, while the party leaderships agreed that the number two was Sol Sánchez (IU). Podemos keader Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejon began distancing themselves in 2016, due to their differences on the alliance between Podemos and IU. The rift deepened in the party convention held the following year, when Iglesias supporters took control of the party. Today is the 5th anniversary of Podemos.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2263 on: January 17, 2019, 03:56:21 pm »

Podemos is broken. Pablo Iglesias says he's disappointed with Errejon and Carmena. Podemos leader announced that his party will support Carmena in ther bid for re-election as Mayor of Madrid, but Unidos Podemos will run against Más Madrid and Errejon in the regional elections.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2264 on: January 18, 2019, 10:21:41 am »
« Edited: January 18, 2019, 11:12:16 am by Velasco »

Podemos founders part ways

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/01/18/inenglish/1547798597_841198.html

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Government change in Andalusia

https://www.politico.eu/article/5-takeaways-from-andalusia-government-change/

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The "five takeaways" are explained in the article.

As for the Podemos breakaway, I'm not sure about this wager. I think the diagnisis made by Íñigo Errejón is correct. The Andalusian outcome shows that it's necessary a revulsive. Also, the broad movement advocated by Errejón seems more attractive to me than the Unidos Podemos formula, which only appeals to the "people of the left" and has proven ineffective (it doesn't appeal a broader base and it doesn't retain all the vote Podemos and IU got separately). But the Podemos implosion might end in disaster and eventually in the demise of the Spanish Left, following preceding catastrophes in France and Italy.  I wish all the best to Carmena and Errejón: they have all my sympathy. But I'm worried too...

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Velasco
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« Reply #2265 on: January 19, 2019, 10:20:43 am »

Errejon and his supporters claim the crisis can be solved and a new deal is possible, but Podemos leadership says the bridges are broken beyond repair. On the other hand, IU spokeswoman in Madrid says the deal beteeen Podemos and her organization is broken and it's urgent and necessary a new one to run in regional snd local elections. Podemos has no candidate for regional elections at this moment, but a logical option could be regional drcretary Ramón Espinar. On the fence, the PSOE observes with perplexity and concern. The collapse of Podemos wouldn't help the socialists.

As for the municipality of Madrid, Podemos will not run against Manuela Carmena, but refuses to support her campaign and to psrticipate in her list. IU is considering to run against Carmena in the city (very likely according to eldiario.es),  but nothing is decided. The Anticapitalist faction of Podemos, always very critic of Carmena, calls to organize a list.

Ignacio Escolar analyzes what is likely the last battle between Iglesias and Errejon. It is very difficult to redirect the situation

https://m.eldiario.es/escolar/claves-ruptura-Iglesias-Errejon_6_858524171.html

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tack50
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« Reply #2266 on: January 21, 2019, 08:11:13 am »

El Español released a rare "estimation" for the Spanish Senate

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If wondering, the Senate is mostly elected through limited block voting, with a small appointed part.

In each of the 48 provinces in the Spanish mainland, 4 candidates are elected, with voters getting 3 votes (the most common arrangement is thus 3 for the winner-1 for the runner-up)

In the "major islands" of Gran Canaria, Tenerife and Mallorca, 3 candidates are elected, with voters getting 2 votes (thus the most common arrangement is 2 for the winner-1 for the runner-up)

In the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, 2 candidates are elected, with voters getting 2 votes (so, FPTP but with more candidates)

In the "minor islands" of La Palma, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, Menorca and Ibiza-Formentera (who form a single constituency); 1 candidate is elected with voters getting 1 vote (so, standard FPTP)

Finally, after each regional election, each autonomous community appoints 1 senator, plus another senator for every 1 million people, in a proportional manner. This means that Vox now has 1 senator appointed for Andalucia. Since a majority of the appointed senators will be elected in May 2019 they didn't include the appointed senators.

In any case, it seems PP will very much lose its majority, with PSOE becoming the largest party in the Senate for the first time since 1995! (when they lost their plurality after the 1995 regional elections)

The Senate map can and will change a lot based on very minor vote changes so I'd take it as just a curiosity, I could see anything from a huge PSOE majority to a hung Senate, depending on the vote splitting.

In any case the Spanish Senate is very weak as it can only delay laws for about 1 month. It does have 2 places where it's important: Constitutional ammendments and most importantly, activating article 155 in Catalonia (the direct rule article), which requires Senate approval. So in theory under this estimation, PSOE could block article 155 if they feel it's unjustified.

As for the estimation itself, it seems about right, though I will say that there are 2 seats missing, one for CC in El Hierro and one for ASG (small local party, PSOE split) in La Gomera. Both should be safe seats for each.
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tack50
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« Reply #2267 on: January 21, 2019, 09:13:11 am »

Also, the newest chapter in the Podemos splitting saga: Errejón has resigned his seat.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/01/21/actualidad/1548078901_665589.html

Doesn't change much, and he will apparently remain a Podemos member (unless he is expelled I guess).
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Velasco
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« Reply #2268 on: January 21, 2019, 11:35:17 am »

Also, the newest chapter in the Podemos splitting saga: Errejón has resigned his seat.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/01/21/actualidad/1548078901_665589.html

Doesn't change much, and he will apparently remain a Podemos member (unless he is expelled I guess).

Podemos leadership claims that Errejón is already gone, but I think this is an excuse. Errejón is not like the six councilors who decided to run in the Más Madrid local primaries and were suspended from membership, on request of the Podemos local branch. He is one of the founding members of Podemos ("I couldn't leave, even if I wanted. It runs in my blood"). Expelling him would be tragic and costly, so Iglesias and his supporters prefer to say that Errejón is no longer member because he left for Más Madrid. It's up to see what happens with the members of the Errejón faction if they participate in Más Madrid, besides the suspended councilors (Rita Maestre and the others) and the rest of territorial branches. In case Podemos leadership persists in saying the bridges are broken, the party could be on the verge of collapse. Errejón says that he made the "correct" and not the "comfortable" decision. He resigns the seat in Congress to  de-escalate the situation (first he said that he would resign"immediately" on formal request, but Iglesias supporters said it was his decision suggesting that he should go) and hopes that Podemos leadership "reconsiders" (he said this weekend that Iglesias' leadership is "conformist") and the party joins the broader platform of Más Madrid.

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Velasco
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« Reply #2269 on: January 25, 2019, 10:45:06 am »

Podemos secretary in Madrid, Ramon Espinar, resigns office and his seat in Senate and Regional Assembly. Despite he is a close ally of Pablo Iglesias, Espinar disagrees with the Podemos leader on the course for the crisis and opposes running a list against Errejón in the regional election. This move shows the Pablo Iglesias faction is not a stony and immovable block. There are voices calling for a joint list with Más Madrid. On the other hand, some regional secretaries (including Basque Country and Murcia, alligned with Errejón) met in Toledo and made a release calling for "confidence, unity, coordination and negotiation". No one from the national leadership attended the meeting.
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tack50
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« Reply #2270 on: January 27, 2019, 05:58:30 pm »

RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)

Image Link

Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.

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« Reply #2271 on: January 27, 2019, 06:26:47 pm »

RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)

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Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.



More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.
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« Reply #2272 on: January 27, 2019, 06:27:31 pm »

More polling:

Hamalgama–Ágora Integral poll: (never heard of them)

22.5% PP, 84/86 seats

21.2% PSOE, 74/78
19.3% UP, 62/65
18.2% C's, 67/70
  8.7% Vox, 28/29
  2.5% ERC, 8
  2.0% PNV, 7
  1.8% PDeCAT, 4/5
  0.6% Bildu, 2
  0.2% CC, 0/1
  3.0% Others

NC Report poll:

24.2% PSOE, 98 seats
24.0% PP, 99
18.7% C's, 64
16.6% UP, 48
  9.4% Vox, 18

KeyData/Público poll:

22.3% PSOE, 98 seats
21.5% PP, 89
19.8% C's, 67
14.8% UP, 51
10.3% Vox, 18
  3.1% ERC, 12
  1.6% PDeCAT, 6
  1.1% PNV, 6
  0.9% Bildu, 2
  0.3% CC, 1
  4.3% Others
  
Don't understand the seat projection from KeyData. I would assume PP would be ahead by 1 or 2 seats or basically tied with PSOE.
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tack50
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« Reply #2273 on: January 27, 2019, 07:58:16 pm »

Regarding the other polls:

Hamalgama-Ágora Integral is a pollster most commonly used by the regional Canarian newspapers La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife (in fact it was published in these newspapers). They rarely publish polls and when they do it's almost always for regional elections. So I'm surprised to see them make a national poll

As for the seat allocation in the Público poll, I don't think it's that weird. The PSOE-PP gap there is 0.8%, with a 9 seat gap. For comparison in 1996 PP beat PSOE by 1.2% and got a larger gap of 15 seats. Seems ok with me.



More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

I'm very skeptical that the Catalans would prop up Sánchez again. If they don't even support his budget, why would they support his government?

The only way for Sánchez to stay in power is with a PSOE+Cs deal (assuming Cs is even willing to do that, though they aren't allergic to supporting PSOE, they are certainly not a fan of Sánchez)

Of all the polls none really give PSOE any chance of forming a government.
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« Reply #2274 on: January 27, 2019, 08:08:24 pm »

Regarding the other polls:

Hamalgama-Ágora Integral is a pollster most commonly used by the regional Canarian newspapers La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife (in fact it was published in these newspapers). They rarely publish polls and when they do it's almost always for regional elections. So I'm surprised to see them make a national poll

As for the seat allocation in the Público poll, I don't think it's that weird. The PSOE-PP gap there is 0.8%, with a 9 seat gap. For comparison in 1996 PP beat PSOE by 1.2% and got a larger gap of 15 seats. Seems ok with me.



More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

I'm very skeptical that the Catalans would prop up Sánchez again. If they don't even support his budget, why would they support his government?

The only way for Sánchez to stay in power is with a PSOE+Cs deal (assuming Cs is even willing to do that, though they aren't allergic to supporting PSOE, they are certainly not a fan of Sánchez)

Of all the polls none really give PSOE any chance of forming a government.

Sorry, if wasn't clear, by them I meant PSOE+C's. If Podemos are truly imploding, then the amount of options available to a left-wing voter are limited, which may breath new life into the Red-Orange Govt. Right now though, that option isn't available.
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