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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2275 on: January 27, 2019, 08:08:24 pm »

Regarding the other polls:

Hamalgama-Ágora Integral is a pollster most commonly used by the regional Canarian newspapers La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife (in fact it was published in these newspapers). They rarely publish polls and when they do it's almost always for regional elections. So I'm surprised to see them make a national poll

As for the seat allocation in the Público poll, I don't think it's that weird. The PSOE-PP gap there is 0.8%, with a 9 seat gap. For comparison in 1996 PP beat PSOE by 1.2% and got a larger gap of 15 seats. Seems ok with me.



More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

I'm very skeptical that the Catalans would prop up Sánchez again. If they don't even support his budget, why would they support his government?

The only way for Sánchez to stay in power is with a PSOE+Cs deal (assuming Cs is even willing to do that, though they aren't allergic to supporting PSOE, they are certainly not a fan of Sánchez)

Of all the polls none really give PSOE any chance of forming a government.

Sorry, if wasn't clear, by them I meant PSOE+C's. If Podemos are truly imploding, then the amount of options available to a left-wing voter are limited, which may breath new life into the Red-Orange Govt. Right now though, that option isn't available.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2276 on: January 27, 2019, 10:10:58 pm »

RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)

Img


Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.



It seems that as Podemos support goes down over the last few month that support should flow to PSOE.  It seems if anything that support if flowing to VOX.  It could be the flows are more complex then that. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #2277 on: January 28, 2019, 06:41:09 am »

The amount of voters that PSOE can recover from Podemos is limited. There are former PSOE voters among the 5 million who voted Podemos in 2015 and 2016, but also: young voters, abstentionists, alternative left supporters and peripheral nationalists. Some of these groups are very unlikely to back PSOE. In case Podemos collapses, many disillusioned voters would go to abstention. Actually that poll suggests a massive abstention of left-wing voters, even a worse scenario than the outcome of the Andalusian elections. It's worth noting that the increase in raw numbers of the parties right of the centre was very small in Andalusia. The result was more the consequence of 700,000 left-wing voters staying at home. On the other hand, this fluctuation is logical given the apparent implosion of Podemos. Depending on how the crisis evolves, Podemos may recover or collapse definitely. There are other possibilities, such as the surge of a new party in the left. The bold move of Carmena and Errejón in Madrid may end being a revulsive or a catastrophe. The months before the May elections will be very long. It's nearly impossible to predict the outcome now.
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tack50
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« Reply #2278 on: January 28, 2019, 07:39:48 am »

Yeah, an interesting thing is the relation between turnout and left wing votes.

The Spanish left has only won once with turnout below 70% (in 1989, with 69.9% turnout; I'm not counting 2016 as a win).

I do think PSOE can take back a lot of Podemos voters if there's a true collapse though. In Catalonia/Basque Country they will indeed to go Bildu or ERC for the most part, but in the rest of the country I can easily see most Podemos voters going to PSOE again.

Remember that back in 2008 pretty much all the groups you mentioned were firm PSOE voters. Granted that was at the peak of the 2 party system, but I'm not sure if turnout can get much lower either. Remember 2016 had the lowest turnout in Spanish history already.

Similarly, the Andalusian election technically did not see record breaking low turnout either, 1990 had lower turnout (and PSOE won a majority anyways).
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Velasco
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« Reply #2279 on: January 28, 2019, 09:07:47 am »
« Edited: January 28, 2019, 07:53:21 pm by Velasco »

Podemos leadership reconsiders after the resignation of Ramón Espinar. Spokeswoman in Congress Irene Montero, who is acting as interim leader while her partner Pablo Iglesias is on paternity leave, says that Podemos will talk with Errejón  before the elections. In the days following the release of the joint letter of Carmena and Errejón, Montero stated that the bridges were broken. There is division in Podemos between the supporters of a deal with Errejón (unitary list) and the supporters of running against Más Madrid in coalition with IU. Some people in Podemos think that running against Errejón would be a "suicide", but there are hardliners opposed to a deal with the "traitor" and Pablo Iglesias has been looking unsuccessfully for an independent on the top of a rival list. The negotiations will be complicated in any case.


I do think PSOE can take back a lot of Podemos voters if there's a true collapse though. In Catalonia/Basque Country they will indeed to go Bildu or ERC for the most part, but in the rest of the country I can easily see most Podemos voters going to PSOE again.

Remember that back in 2008 pretty much all the groups you mentioned were firm PSOE voters. Granted that was at the peak of the 2 party system, but I'm not sure if turnout can get much lower either. Remember 2016 had the lowest turnout in Spanish history already.

Similarly, the Andalusian election technically did not see record breaking low turnout either, 1990 had lower turnout (and PSOE won a majority anyways).

Disagree. We can't go back to 2008 pretending that the global crisis, its harsh impact in Spain and the 15M movement never happened. Podemos was born as the heir party of said movement and all the people coming from there (the "Futurless Youth") is not likely to back PSOE. Because of this and because the PSOE's strategy is trying to occupy the centre (deserted by Cs and PP), the total collapse of Podemos is not in the PSOE's interest.

The result in Andalusia was the combination of a depressed left wing turnout with a high mobilization of right wing voters. Additionally, there was a reconfiguration of the space right of the centre: PP losing ground, Cs increasing and the Vox surge
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yeah_93
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« Reply #2280 on: January 29, 2019, 06:47:12 am »

Hey, I found this on Twitter:



How reliable is it? Is it an internal of some sort? I'm not very familiar with polling around here.

If true, those are some very weak numbers for the left.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2281 on: January 29, 2019, 08:29:09 am »

Hey, I found this on Twitter:



How reliable is it? Is it an internal of some sort? I'm not very familiar with polling around here.

If true, those are some very weak numbers for the left.

I guess you are referring to the Invymark poll for Telemadrid. The pollster is OK, but the sample size is way too small (only 400) and the margin of error higher than usual.

Anyway Madrid looks like an uphill battle for the left, even with an exceptional candidate like Manuela Carmena. She is a good mayor who has reduced the nunicipal debt left by the PP administrations, as well she has implemented good policies on environment and citizen participation (among others). I think her list will come first easily (the right wing vote is splitted in three), but it will be difficult to repeat the left-wing majority in a city that leans to the right and in the present circumstances. On the other hand, Begoña Villacis won't hesitate in replicating the Triple Alliance of Andalusia. However,  Carmena is the only one who can replicate the 2015 miracle. She needs a big mobilization of left-wing and progressive voters. It's going to be very hard, but not imposible
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tack50
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« Reply #2282 on: January 29, 2019, 10:23:45 am »

Uphill battle is putting it lightly IMO. Madrid is close to being a lost cause (a shame, Carmena is genuinely popular and probably the best Podemos mayor, but Madrid is just too conservative). 

The only way for Carmena to be reelected is if Cs, PP and Vox fail to reach an agreement, in that case she automatically becomes mayor 2 months after the election or something like that. But barring a very weak minority government or something weird like Cs supporting Carmena I don't think she survives.

I do agree Carmena is the only hope (even if it's a very faint one). Also, keep in mind that PSOE in Madrid city has pretty much disappeared, it wouldn't be unthinkable (although it's unlikely) that PSOE falls below the 5% threshold.

Remember we are headed for a right wing landslide (if we believe polling); somewhere between the scale of 2000 and 2011. I don't know how many mayors are hopless causes but for reference we could look at the 2011 defeat as a worst case scenario:

Back in 2011 out of the 104 municipalities that are provincial capitals or have a population over 75000; the left held 22 for PSOE; 1 for Bildu, 1 for BNG and 1 for a tiny, probably local party (the Greens in Orihuela); for a total of 25 left wing mayors.

Currently out of the 107 muncipalities with the same specifications, the left holds 44 for PSOE, 7 for Podemos, 3 for IU, 1-2 for a tiny or local parties (the Greens in Torrevieja and maybe MCC in Cartagena), 1 for ERC, 1 for NCa, 1 for BNG, 1 for Compromís, 1 for Bildu for a total of 60-61 left wing mayors.

So I'd say that around 15 big city mayors will lose. And the most likely ones are the ones that have tiny majorities to begin with (like Carmena)

Anyways the poll seems good, it's not an internal and the result is believable but with a small sample and a big margin of error.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2283 on: January 29, 2019, 11:56:48 am »

Carmena is not a Podemos mayor: she is an independent who was backed by Podemos. She always remarks her independence from party structures and this is one of her main assets, besides her competence and many other personal qualities (sorry, I'm a bit of a fan and this is not usual in me). Currently she's allied with a dissident of that party and her relationship with the Podemos leadership is frozen. Furthermore, all the Podemos councilors are suspended from membership: at this moment the Pablo Iglesias party is not part of the local government. If Carnena was the typical candidate with a party affiliation, I would say she's done and has no chance at all. Given that she's exceptional and she's an independent who can appeal a broader base, I think there's still a small ray of light. Anyway it's more likely that Begoña Villacis becomes the next mayor with the support of PP and the far right VOX. At least that's what the polls say. Often predictions hold true, but sometimes there's room for surprise. In 2015 Carmena was polling a distant second behind Aguirre, but the campaign boosted her popularity (she was little known before) and came very close on election night.

Indeed, we are heading to a right wing nationalist majority according to the polls. It'd be depressing if it wasn't for the extreme volatility of the political situation. If we go a little time back, we could remember that Podemos was sunken in the polls months before the 2015 general rlections (Cs boosted after its success in the Catalonia), in which the purple party got more than 20% from the scratch and was the moral victor. Pedro Sánchez was deemed a corpse when he was ousted from party leadership and he is now the PM...
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Velasco
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« Reply #2284 on: January 30, 2019, 12:55:45 am »
« Edited: January 30, 2019, 01:00:58 am by Velasco »

Former coach of the Spanish basketball team Pepu Hernández is the candidate picked by Pedro Sánchez to run for the mayoralty of Madrid. Hernández coached the national team that won the 2006 World Championship in Japan. He was also the coach of Estudiantes, a team based in Madrid. Pedro Sánchez  is a big fan of basketball and played in Estudiantes as a teenager, from there their friendship. Hernández is an independent. At first he will have to run in the primary election scheduled on March 9 and there's another candidate who wants the nomination: Manuel de la Rocha, a member of the left wing faction. PSOE senior figures like Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and Cristina Narbona, as well as Interior minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, had previously rejected to run in Madrid. The PSOE faces difficulties in the city of Madrid after four years in the shadow of Carmena, supporting her investiture as mayor without taking place in local government. PSOE spokeswoman in Madrid relativized the value of the last poll placing socialists in 5th position behind Vox, saying that the margin of error is huge and it was conducted before "political events that have modified reality": alliance between Carmena and  Errejón, outbreak of the Podemos crisis.

Confirmed candidates so far:

Manuela Carmena (Más Madrid)
Begoña Villacís (Ciudadanos)
José Luis Martínez Almeida (PP)

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Velasco
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« Reply #2285 on: January 31, 2019, 05:15:26 am »
« Edited: January 31, 2019, 08:24:52 am by Velasco »

Fresh poll for the Madrid regional election

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/candidatura-Errejon-superaria-Podemos-gobernar_0_862664557.html

PSOE 21.4% 30 seats
PP 20 8% 29 seats
Cs 19.2% 27 seats
Más Madrid 10.5% 15 seats
Podemos 9% 12 seats
Vox 8.4% 12 seats
IU 5.3% 7 seats

Triple Alliance (PP-Cs-Vox) 48.4% 68 seats
Left (PSOE, Más Madrid,  Podemos, IU) 46.2% 64 seats

Some people begins to speculate on the 'Big Centre' or 'Macron' alliance between PSOE, Cs and Más Madrid (51.1% 72 seats). I don't see it at this stage, but who knows...

There was a meeting of the Podemos' Citizen Council yesterday. It's the equivalent of an executive committee and there is a majority of Pablo Iglesias supporters (Iglesias 37, Errejon 23, Anticapitalistas 2). Iglesias is on paternity leave and participated telematically. Previously he posted a long text in Facebook. Iglesias wrote that he's hurt and upset  but, despite everything, Errejon is not a traitor and he must be an ally. This means Pablo Iglesias and his inner circle consider Errejon is not in Podemos anymore, but they acknowledge a deal with Más Madrid on a joint list is necessary. Errejon didn't attend in order to avoid conflict, after Irene Montero said she preferred that Errejon was not present in the council meeeting. Other members of the Errejon faction attended anyway. The council agreed a route map for alliances. Podemos will hold primaries first, then there will be a negotiation with 'preferent partners' IU and Equo. The negotiation between Unidos Podemos and Más Madrid would be the last step...

The rift between Iglesias abd Errejon is very deep and possibly IU is going to play an important role in the negotiations for a joint list
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Velasco
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« Reply #2286 on: February 01, 2019, 04:40:30 am »

Celeste-Tel poll for the Madrid local elections

Más Madrid 28.4% 18 councilors (-2)
PP 21.9% 13 councilors (-8)
Cs 21.8% 13 councilors (+6)
PSOE 13.7% 8 councilors (-1)
VOX 8.2% 5 councilors (+5)
IU 2.3% nc (-)

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Carmena-elecciones-Madrid-PSOE-Ciudadanos_0_863014431.html

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« Reply #2287 on: February 02, 2019, 07:48:16 pm »

NC-Report poll for the Community of Madrid:

21.3% PP, 31 seats
20.4% PSOE, 30
18.9% C's, 27
13.2% Más Madrid, 19
10.4% Vox, 15
  7.4% UP, 10
  8.4% Others

Invymark poll for la Sexta TV:

23.9% PSOE, 96 seats
21.3% PP, 91
20.9% C's, 76
13.5% UP, 35
11.2% Vox, 28
  9.4% Others, 24

CIS poll: (lol)

29.9% PSOE
17.7% C's
15.4% UP
14.9% PP
  6.5% Vox
  4.7% ERC
  1.7% PACMA
  1.3% PNV
  1.1% Bildu
  1.0% PDeCAT
  0.2% CC
  5.6% Others
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tack50
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« Reply #2288 on: February 03, 2019, 08:16:08 am »

Regarding the polls yeah, forget about the CIS poll, it's totally rigged. Probably a terrible decision on Sánchez's part.

In any case, they all just confirm what we knew. At the national level PSOE is favoured to be the largest party but the right will probably get a majority so who cares. The big question is whether PSOE+Cs is possible or not. Right now it seems they will fail but maybe they'll rise in the future?

Same for the Madrid poll except there's a 3 way tie for first there. In any case I rate Madrid Lean Cs as of now, though I guess I should move it to a PP-Cs tossup
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Mike88
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« Reply #2289 on: February 03, 2019, 08:36:11 am »

Regarding the polls yeah, forget about the CIS poll, it's totally rigged. Probably a terrible decision on Sánchez's part.

In any case, they all just confirm what we knew. At the national level PSOE is favoured to be the largest party but the right will probably get a majority so who cares. The big question is whether PSOE+Cs is possible or not. Right now it seems they will fail but maybe they'll rise in the future?

Same for the Madrid poll except there's a 3 way tie for first there. In any case I rate Madrid Lean Cs as of now, though I guess I should move it to a PP-Cs tossup

The CIS debacle is just ridiculous. Anyway, i think that, in the future, a PSOE/C's coalition may be possible, but currently i think Sanchéz is an impossible pill for many C's voters to swallow. If, in the future, a more centrist/moderate PSOE leader emerges, C's could find themselves more "cozy" with PSOE rather than with PP.

The Spanish 2019 elections will probably be one of the most unpredictable ever. In many cities and communities there is a very close 3 way race between PSOE/PP/C's and a huge surge of Vox.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2290 on: February 03, 2019, 08:42:51 am »

If after an national election a PSOE+C majority is possible but so is a PP+C+VOX what would be C's preference?  I assume what you guys are saying is it depends on if Sánchez is the PSOE PM candidate or someone else?
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tack50
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« Reply #2291 on: February 03, 2019, 08:52:31 am »

If both were possible, I think Cs would go with PSOE+Cs, even if Sánchez remained as PM. They might not like it, but I don't think they will have enough strength to take him down.

In fact I wonder if both are possible if PNV would back PSOE+Cs as a "lesser of 2 evils" and/or if UPN (a Navarra unionist party) would back it, splitting from PP

I'd argue Sánchez's biggest threat to him losing power when he could remain would be an internal party coup. I guess that will depend on how the party does after the regional elections.
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« Reply #2292 on: February 03, 2019, 09:05:32 am »
« Edited: February 03, 2019, 09:10:59 am by Mike88 »

Yeah, i agree that the 2019 May elections will be critical for Sanchéz permanence in power, but, UP's results may have a big influence now. Electomania, i know they are not a legit pollester, made a poll for the EU elections that shows PP very low, Vox well ahead of UP and PSOE and C's neck and neck.

Could the implosion of UP force Sanchéz to turn to the right in order to please C's voters/politicians and gain their support?
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jaichind
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« Reply #2293 on: February 03, 2019, 10:16:57 am »

But given C's position on Catalonia would not they prefer PP's hardline position?  Or will PSOE shift to a hardline position on Catalonia to get C onboard since given the assumed implosion of Podemos there will no longer be a need to care about Podemos's position on Catalonia?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2294 on: February 03, 2019, 10:28:44 am »

But given C's position on Catalonia would not they prefer PP's hardline position?  Or will PSOE shift to a hardline position on Catalonia to get C onboard since given the assumed implosion of Podemos there will no longer be a need to care about Podemos's position on Catalonia?

I don't think PSOE would need to shift, hypothetical negotiations between C's and PSOE would feature some red-lines in that regard. PSOE wouldn't have to change, but their government would have to accept a anti-Catalonia and centralist position.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2295 on: February 05, 2019, 06:31:52 am »

I would challenge the notion that Pedro Sánchez is a radical leftist, or something. Albert Rivera is far from being a moderate, particularly in what regards the delicate territorial question. PSOE and Cs, with Sánchez and Rivera as leaders, already signed a deal in 2016. I won't say a similar deal is impossible in the near future, but the context (Venezuela crisis, Podemos implosion) favours the reactionary triple alliance.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2296 on: February 05, 2019, 02:02:39 pm »

The trial versus the Catalan separatist leaders starts next week, on Tuesday 12. They are accused of serious offences such as rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds. The trial will have a deep impact in Spanish politics and I'm afraid it's going to poison the already strained environment. To make things even worse, the far right will have a protagonic role. VOX secretary general Javier Ortega Smith will represent the private prosecution. It could be a formidable propagandistic weapon for the Spanish extreme reactionaries. The trial will have as well a huge emotional burden and it will affect the next moves of the Catalan nationalists, conditioned by the rivalry between ERC and the heirs of Convergència. The trial will highlight the role of ERC leader Oriol Junqueras at the expense of Carles Puigdemont. Junqueras is jailed and facing a harsh punishment, while Puigdemont lives comfortably at his Waterloo mansion in his self-enforced Belgian 'exile'.

In this context, the strategy of the Pedro Sánchez government to make a series of symbolic gestures in order to favour dialogue may end in failure if the Catalan separatist parties reject the budget plan. This would lead inevitably to elections (either in May or in autumn) and pave the way to a right wing majority promising to implement a tough policy in Catalonia. The following is worth reading

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/05/inenglish/1549354707_947579.html

Quote
For years, former Popular Party (PP) Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy heard the same mantra. It came not only from supporters of Catalan independence, but also from other sectors in the northeastern region and indeed across Spain: “Make a move, engage in politics.” That was the advice he was given when it came to how he should deal with the secessionist drive in Catalonia, a movement that culminated in 2017 with an illegal referendum and a subsequent declaration of independence in the regional parliament.

Plagued by corruption cases in his party, Rajoy was ousted from power in the summer of 2018, thanks to a motion of no confidence won by Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE). Since he has been prime minister, Sánchez has been promising to seek “political solutions to a political problem” when it comes to Catalonia. An additional problem that Sánchez faces, however, is that he relies on the support of pro-independence parties in Congress to get anything done – the PSOE counts on just 84 seats in Spain’s lower house, with 176 votes needed for a majority in the 350-seat chamber.

Eight months after Sánchez came to power, all of the efforts that have been made by the government to improve the situation with Catalonia, and decisions taken in spite of their political cost – including a draft budget that is very favorable to the region – could serve for nothing if, in the end, the pro-Catalan independence groups Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and the Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT) vote against the budget plan on February 13 (...)

 

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Velasco
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« Reply #2297 on: February 09, 2019, 08:36:00 am »

Spanish government breaks talks with Catalan separatists

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/08/inenglish/1549635276_414422.html

Quote
(...) The announcement comes in the wake of a political storm in Spain over the government’s recent decision to accept having an observer at cross-party talks that were scheduled in the coming days.

It is unclear what this figure, which has been described as a cross between a rapporteur, a mediator and a notary, would have been tasked with doing at the talks, but the opposition said it was a concession to the Catalan separatists, who have repeatedly asked for international mediation.

On Wednesday, the Popular Party (PP), Ciudadanos (Citizens) and the far-right Vox party said they would call a street demonstration in Madrid this coming Sunday to protest the move and “throw out” Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (...)
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« Reply #2298 on: February 10, 2019, 07:53:55 am »

Mass rally against Sanchéz and for the calling of fresh elections in Madrid, today:

Img

General view of the protest in Madrid.

The number of people in the rally is disputed. The government says 45,000, while organizers say 200,000. Looking at the pictures, i would say something in the middle. The rally was called by PP and C's after Sanchéz deal with the Catalans, that only lasted 3 days. Vox also was present in the rally.

What's the chance of general elections being held in May? Things look quite grim for Sanchéz.
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« Reply #2299 on: February 10, 2019, 07:58:07 am »
« Edited: February 10, 2019, 08:05:04 am by tack50 »

Yes, they look very grim. The final nail in the coffin will happen this Wednesday, when the budget is rejected by Congress.

After that who knows. Sánchez might try to simply rule by decrees, there's no alternative majority to oust him. However his rule by decree would become very unpopular very fast I think.

On the other hand elections in May are also a bad option and most PSOE figures reject them in order not to contaminate local elections with national ones. However it might also increase turnout.

In any case, there will be an election this year, the question is if it will happen in May on a "Mega Sunday", or after the Summer. (or less likely in another date, like say June or April)
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