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EPG
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« Reply #25 on: January 18, 2015, 07:30:46 am »

Podemos won't govern on its own, so it is hard to answer.
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« Reply #26 on: January 18, 2015, 07:33:46 am »

Podemos won't govern on its own, so it is hard to answer.


Syriza very well may. The principal question of how far left you can actually go without tanking the economy is IMO one of the most central in modern politics. To what degree is leftist politics mere symbolism that inevitably will have to moderated if the party/parties advocating it actually got power and to what degree is it implementable? Although this is of course not the right place/thread to discuss it.
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« Reply #27 on: January 18, 2015, 11:42:47 am »

The question may be relevant in the case of a coalition government involving PSOE and Podemos. I don't think this is the likeliest thing to happen, but anyway.
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« Reply #28 on: January 18, 2015, 01:20:34 pm »

El País released today an interview with Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias, in Seville. Highlights:

- "In the next elections, there will be only two choices: PP and Podemos"

-  After remarking that Pedro Sánchez is "lost", because he doesn't say if he's supporting Syriza or ND, nor clarifies his stance on issues like the reform of Article 135 and tax havens, stated his opposition to Juncker -PSOE didn't vote him- but didn't support a proposal for a motion of censure made by the GUE/NGL in the wake of the 'luxleaks' scandal... Pablo Iglesias assures that he won't have difficulty to deal coalitions with PSOE if the Spanish socialists make an U turn, that is to say: acknowledging that austerity policies "have been a mistake" and assuming that "in this country is necessary to talk about a restructuring of the debt and the dation in payment*".

* In Spain, people evicted from their homes still have to pay the terms of mortgages.

- "Spain is a plurinational reality" and "the solution to the territorial problem (Catalonia) passes through a referendum" and the latter through a "constituent process", which Iglesias deems necessary in order that people can decide on the territorial question and other issues and putting all options on the table.

- Iglesias admits that it's not the same making a platform to run in the EP elections and making a platform to govern. He says the economists with which they are working told them that it's not possible to reduce retirement age to 60 or implementing basic income within two years, as it was in the EP elections manifesto.

- "Ideological definitions serve badly to understand the current situation"

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/01/17/actualidad/1421526937_154439.html

Pedro Sánchez counterattacked from Barcelona:

"Pablo Iglesias is a politician who lies rather than he speaks" referring to the aforementioned interview, in which Iglesias eluded to position himself in the right or in the left (the sentence on ideological definitions) and to detail promises like basic income. "Iglesias ran in the EP elections with a platform which now refuses, he said he was on the left and now not". Sánchez stated that, in contrast with Podemos, PSOE will take decisions once in power such as abolishing: the last labor market reform, the educational reform sponsored by the controversial minister Wert and the local governments reform. Sánchez didn't focus on Catalan problem in Barcelona, but talked about people wanting to build a homeland and bringing their fortunes to Switzerland and Andorra.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/01/18/catalunya/1421584831_463820.html

Links in Spanish.
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« Reply #29 on: January 18, 2015, 01:39:01 pm »

Podemos will not be allowed to win.
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« Reply #30 on: January 18, 2015, 01:44:00 pm »

Podemos will not be allowed to win.

Strange phrasing. Hope you are not venturing into conspiracy territory.
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« Reply #31 on: January 18, 2015, 02:25:12 pm »

http://www.abc.es/espana/20150118/abci-avance-encuesta-elecciones-201501172057.html

PP: 29,3%
Podemos: 21,1%
PSOE: 19,2%
C's: 6,3%
UPyD: 4,8%
IU: 3,7%
CiU: 2,8%
ERC: 1,8%
PNV: 1,3%
Amaiur: 1,0%
Others: 8,7%
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« Reply #32 on: January 18, 2015, 02:33:08 pm »

I must admit I don't really understand the appeal of C's and UpyD. Are they just for people who really really dislike Catalans? I certainly don't understand this new surge by C's. Who are they stealing votes from?

Also lol that Podemos are already running away from their basic income pledge. Wasn't that supposed to be one of Iglesias's biggest pet issues?
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« Reply #33 on: January 18, 2015, 02:43:01 pm »

I must admit I don't really understand the appeal of C's and UpyD. Are they just for people who really really dislike Catalans? I certainly don't understand this new surge by C's. Who are they stealing votes from?

Also lol that Podemos are already running away from their basic income pledge. Wasn't that supposed to be one of Iglesias's biggest pet issues?

Even if their economists had told them it couldn't be financed they should have kept it in their platform and blamed PSOE for not being able to implement it. Leftist parties are often a little too honest about stuff like that.
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« Reply #34 on: January 18, 2015, 03:57:14 pm »

Also lol that Podemos are already running away from their basic income pledge. Wasn't that supposed to be one of Iglesias's biggest pet issues?

The current economic draft, written by economists Juan Torres and Vicenç Navarro, mentions "a state pact against poverty and social exclusion" geared towards the implementation of a minimum guaranteed income. Pablo Iglesias said in the interview that economists told him that such implementation is not going to be possible in the first two years. It can be interpreted as a withdrawal or as a more realistic approach, depending on consumer's taste. It has relation with the question of "how far left you can go..."

I must admit I don't really understand the appeal of C's and UpyD. Are they just for people who really really dislike Catalans? I certainly don't understand this new surge by C's. Who are they stealing votes from?

Well, they dislike Catalan nationalists. Disliking nationalists doesn't imply necessarily disliking Catalans, although dislike of Catalans is common among certain circles. I wouldn't say that it's a feeling shared by a majority but certainly exists, as some past campaigns led by PP against the Catalan statute of devolution demonstrate. Said this, it should be noted that Ciutadans (Ciudadanos in Spanish) is a party founded in Catalonia by Catalan people disliking Catalan nationalism. Only as of recently, C's is starting to increase its territorial implementation in the rest of Spain. With UPyD happens the opposite. Being the stances of both parties quite similar on the basic issues, the party led by Rosa Díez (formerly a prominent member of the Basque socialists) has been always extremely weak in Catalonia because Ciutadans already existed. UPyD appeals secular and liberal people with centralist leanings. UPyD people reject the 'centralist' label and talk about 'symmetric federalism', which means that all regions should have the same competences and treated the same, advocating for a re-devolution of Education and Healthcare competences to the central government. UPyD has been since its foundation a strong advocate for political reform and the fight against corruption. Also, it has a hardline stance on terrorism (the origin of the party is in the Basque Country, people threatened by ETA).

In the case of C's it's a bit more complicated. Ciutadans started as a single-issue party, opposing the Catalan laws on linguistic immersion and what they perceive as a cultural monopoly excercised by the Catalan nationalism. They also advocate for political reform and have a strong anti-corruption stance, although they appear ideologically more inconsistent. Albert Rivera's calls against bankers in the last campaign in Catalonia sound like unconceivable in UPyD spokepersons, whom likely would deem them as 'populist'. However, Albert Rivera has a better appeal among PP voters. The past of Rosa Díez  in PSOE and vocal secularism play against UPyD's chances among conservative voters. Also, Rivera has never been a leftist (it is rumoured that he was once a PP member) and now plays much better than UPyD the card of representing the "new politics" (the young and 'fresh' Rivera has an advantage over the veteran Rosa Díez). Rivera also shows C's as a 'sane' reformist option, in contrast with the 'experiments' of Podemos. Rivera says that C's wants to reform the country, instead of breaking the 'Regime of 1978' implementing a constituent process, and states openness to pact with other parties (PP, PSOE or Podemos) in order to implement the changes they deem neccesary. In Catalonia, C's grew initially at the expense of PSC (voters disillusioned with the PSC-ERC-ICV tripartite governments in 2006 and 2010) and in 2012 they received voters from PSC, PP and even from CiU in the Barcelona metropolitan region. Now C's seems to be eroding further the PP voter base. In the rest of Spain, the growth seems to be primarily at the expense of PP. In the EP elections, C's tended to perform better in PP urban strongholds.  
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« Reply #35 on: January 18, 2015, 04:37:58 pm »

Cheers! I was guessing they were eroding PP, but I knew they had moved populist left last Catalan election. I also kind of supposed that C's base in Catalonia was Castillian implants rather than the indigenous population, but that may not be true?
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« Reply #36 on: January 18, 2015, 04:50:00 pm »

Cheers! I was guessing they were eroding PP, but I knew they had moved populist left last Catalan election. I also kind of supposed that C's base in Catalonia was Castillian implants rather than the indigenous population, but that may not be true?

If with 'Castilian implants' you mean people living in metropolitan Barcelona and the region around Tarragona coming from other parts of Spain -primarily their descendants, because the big immigration was decades ago- the generic answer is yes. In the Catalonian inner countryside, where 'indigenous' population is supposed to be a majority, C's performs poorly. However, it's not strange to find that the sons and grandsons of immigrants from other regions are pro-independence. Catalonia is extremely complex and diverse.
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« Reply #37 on: January 20, 2015, 03:51:55 am »

Tension between PSOE and IU paves the way for snap elections in Andalusia.


Andalusian premier Susana Díaz (PSOE) left open the possibility to call elections in Andalusia, the most populated region of Spain, bringing forward the end of term one year. In previous weeks, Díaz warned that  the continuity of her administration was conditioned  to not crossing what she calls the "red line", the "stability" of the PSOE-IU coalition which supports the regional government. Yesterday, she said by the first time that condition is not fulfilled: "we need a strong and stable government, and at the moment there's not stability". At the same time, regional papers spread that Susana Díaz (40) is 3 months pregnant, although she has decoupled electoral decisions of her pregnancy: "I'm very happy. It's something that concerns me and my family".

The estrangement between PSOE and IU is apparently motivated by the decision to call a referendum among the -always uneasy- IU membership on the continuity of the leftist party in the government. Socialists are upset with IU because that referendum means setting an "expiry date" to the coalition government. Also, another subject of discrepancy was that Susana Díaz prohibited deputy premier Diego Valderas (IU) to trip to Tinduf (Alger), in order to visit the refugee camps and giving support to the Western Sahara cause. Socialists understood that trip would suppose creating tension with Morocco, a key country for trade relations and security. IU regional coordinator Antonio Maillo said that order was "indecent". People at PSOE also blame national deputy Alberto Garzón for recent tensions, because the likely new lider of IU is pursuing an approach to Podemos. Regional polling suggests that Podemos emerges slightly less stronger than in other regions, but it's in a position to break the two-party system and be decisive in post-election deals. MEP Teresa Rodríguez emerges as the likely Podemos head in Andalusia. Rodríguez belonged to the Anticapitalist Left (IZAN), a small far-left party which recently agreed to dissolve into Podemos, and to the faction critic to Pablo Iglesias. Anyway Iglesias and critics seem to have reached an agreement, given that Podemos has some organisational problems in Andalusia.

However, others say the motivation is the ambition of Susana Díaz, who might be planning to run against Pedro Sánchez in the PSOE primaries which will decide the candidate in the next general election. Or maybe Susana Díaz, the woman "who apparently has more command than Pedro Sánchez in PSOE" (Iglesias dixit), wants to strengthen her position in Andalusia by catching rivals unaware.  There have been multiple disputes between the coalition partners, but recently the regional budget was passed and that was considered "the best signal of stability". A snap election would deprive IU to fulfill some promises, like basic income and a land bank, so the regional leadership is trying to calm down the waters. PP, on the other hand, has a new leader who is a complete unknown and it's not faring good in recent polls.
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« Reply #38 on: January 20, 2015, 04:01:25 pm »

Wow so the only regions not having elections this year are the Basque Country and Galicia? Intense.
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« Reply #39 on: January 20, 2015, 06:48:14 pm »

Wow so the only regions not having elections this year are the Basque Country and Galicia? Intense.

Basque and Galician governments look stable, let us give thanks to the Lord.

Apparently, people in Pedro Sánchez's entourage take for granted that Susana Díaz is going to call soon -as soon as this week. The election would be in March (on day 22 or 29). Podemos and PP would be wrong-footed. The Pablo Iglesias' party is still consolidating its territorial implementation in small and middle Andalusian towns. PP's new regional leader, a certain Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, is a complete unknown -well, I know that he's a pupil of Soraya Sáez de Santamaría, the Spanish Deputy PM, and little more- and seems no rival for Susana Díaz. The IU regional coordinator denied yesterday that there's instability in the government, and said he's convinced that there's not going to be a snap election. We'll see.

In other news, former PP's treasurer Luis Bárcenas would be released on bail paying 200,000 Euro. Bárcenas, who has his properties seized, will try to collect money among family and friends.

Good news for Rajoy: IMF predicts that Spanish economy to grow 2%.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/20/inenglish/1421749237_534488.html

Quote
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved its growth forecast for Spain for the sixth time in a row on Tuesday, predicting that the economy would expand 2% in 2015.

Only Spain and the United States saw their prospects revised upwards in an otherwise pessimistic report that lowered global economic growth forecasts to 3.5% for 2015 and 3.7% for 2016, a 0.3% drop for each year.

The new figures were released as part of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, which is produced quarterly.

The organization’s forecast coincides with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s own claims about Spanish economic growth this year.

And José María Aznar is going to come in rescue:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/20/inenglish/1421751020_638963.html

Quote
With a busy election year now underway, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his team have decided to use everything they have to reach out to their traditional voting base: the ultra conservatives.

The Popular Party (PP) fears a disastrous race and has called on its members to close ranks. Not only is the PP trying to appeal to conservatives by sending out messages to victims of terrorism, it also wants to give former Prime Minister José María Aznar a bigger role in the campaign (...)

(oh my God Grin )
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« Reply #40 on: January 21, 2015, 01:11:09 am »

Is José Maria Aznar an asset or an hindrance?
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« Reply #41 on: January 21, 2015, 04:51:54 am »

Aznar is an asset to keep hardcore conservatives loyal to PP. Aside from that, Rajoy will focus himself on the narrative of the economic recovery and the "stability". Needless to say that Rajoy and Aznar dislike each other.

On the left, two lists will compete for the leadership in Madrid representing the two souls of Podemos -although they reject such terminology or talking of internal dissidence-. The advocates of preserving the asambleary spirit of the beginnings will be represented in the list topped by Miguel Urbán (Podemos Ganar Madrid), one of the founders of Podemos coming from the Anticapitalist Left and personal friend of Pablo Iglesias. Urbán calls himself being representative of the "protest Podemos", whereas the newly elected national leadership seems to be moving away from the initial characterisation of Podemos as protest party, in order to become in a government alternative.  The list backed by the Pablo Iglesias' team (Claro que Podemos) will be topped by Luis Alegre, candidate to be the next regional secretary general. Alegre is professor pf philosophy in the Complutense University and member of the founding core as well. He wants to turn Madrid in "the metaphor of Spain" for being one of the big places in dispute and "an absolute cornerstone in the political challenge". Alegre wants to organise the party to kick La Casta -which in Madrid has the makings of a mafia, he says- out the institutions. "The guideline is transforming the social majority in a political majority". Carolina Bescansa -member of the national leadership, sociologist and Podemos' polling chief- talked about "a Podemos to win and a Podemos to protest", remarking the differences between both candidacies.

In Barcelona, the Guanyem project led by anti-eviction activist Ada Colau made a draft agreement with ICV-EUiA, Podemos, Procés Constituent and Equo in order to run a list for the municipal elections. Colau will top the candidacy and the rest of list members will be elected in open primaries which will be called next month. The third place in the list is reserved to ICV. The current ICV spokesman in Barcelona Ricard Gomà decided to quit professional politics after 12 years as councilor. His renunciation helped to pave the way to the deal. The candidacy intends to connect with social movements and the construction of alternatives "already underway" in some neighbourhoods, in order to "return the city to the hands of its neighbours." Previous polls suggest that the list would be well positioned for the mayoral race.
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« Reply #42 on: January 21, 2015, 07:16:59 am »

From which parties are the Podemos voters ?
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« Reply #43 on: January 21, 2015, 11:24:25 am »



Podemos's surge took a large swathe from IU (the leftists - brown), UpyD (anti-nationalist liberals - purple) and healthy amounts from the major two. They also seem to have activated many youths who would otherwise not vote.

In the regional votes, the rise of Podemos has often washed away or diluted many regional leftists, greens, direct democracy activists, protest parties, regionalists and liberals.

Does Vox still exist Velasco? Why did they - and other rightist threats to PP fail?
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« Reply #44 on: January 21, 2015, 03:26:35 pm »

Didn't Vox do really poorly in the European elections? They often act as a primary for new challengers in Europe.
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« Reply #45 on: January 21, 2015, 04:05:14 pm »

From which parties are the Podemos voters ?

Take a look into the thread linked below. Podemos is now clearly targetting the PSOE's voting base. The battle is on the centre-left.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=181490.100


Does Vox still exist Velasco? Why did they - and other rightist threats to PP fail?


Yes, it still exists. After failing to win a seat by less than 2,000 votes in the EP elections, it's like the Vox Party would have disappeared. I think some members have left and now Vox doesn't seem to represent a serious threat. However, there are still conservatives angry at PP because of corruption, going back on abortion or higher taxes (VAT and others). The government presented a tax reform that supposedly is going lower income tax this year (strange brackets; lowering includes the rich). I think the main threat is that C's manages to attract former PP voters on the centre or some angry people on the right. On the other hand, if C's manages to get into regional parliaments or councils in places like Madrid and Valencia, PP might find an ally. Who knows.

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« Reply #46 on: January 21, 2015, 04:51:01 pm »

New poll: Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco.

PP 29.4%, Podemos 26.2%, PSOE 19.4%, IU 4.7%, C's 4.6%, UPyD 4.2%, ERC 2.7%, CiU 2.7%

http://www.electograph.com/search/label/Generales
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« Reply #47 on: January 21, 2015, 04:59:30 pm »

So in one year from establishing to today's 26% in the poll above.
This is quite uncommon for a big european country.
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« Reply #48 on: January 21, 2015, 07:20:58 pm »

Podemos's surge took a large swathe from IU (the leftists - brown), UpyD (anti-nationalist liberals - purple) and healthy amounts from the major two. They also seem to have activated many youths who would otherwise not vote.
I would argue that Podemos actually gathered very few previous UPyD voters. The appeals are simply too far apart. Correct me if I'm wrong, Velasco ?
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« Reply #49 on: January 21, 2015, 07:24:07 pm »

well, upyd did start to crater in the polls around podemos's rise. I imagine it was picking up a healthy amount of protest votes from the perpetually dissatisfied (and remember Diaz is an ex-PSOE person) secular left.
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