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tack50
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« Reply #25 on: May 16, 2017, 04:49:41 am »

What is Lopez like?
Interestingly he became governor in a PP+PSOE coalition

There wasn't a coalition between PSOE and PP in the Basque Country. Patxi López led a minority government. The PP voted for López in the investiture and gave him confidence and supply. Currently in Spain, Mariano Rajoy leads a minority government after having reached an investiture agreement with Ciudadanos (and after the PSOE's Federal Commision decided that the socialists would abstain).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_regional_election,_2009

Quote
After the nationalists' failure to build a successful coalition, the Socialist Party started its contacts. They soon secured the support of their national arch-rival, the conservative People's Party, which vowed to support him in order to oust the nationalists from government after nearly three decades of constant presence. Furthermore Union, Progress and Democracy and Esker Batua, with one MP each, promised not to vote against Mr. López in the investiture session. Thus, the PSE-EE had secured 38 votes in favour and two abstentions, with at most 35 MPs against, and should nothing fail, Mr. López would head the new Basque government. The confirmation of this pact caused the outrage of the PNV, which vowed to put forth its own candidate in the investiture session citing their "right" to head the government as the top-voted party.

The conditions of the pact between the socialist and the conservatives were a matter of constant speculation in the whole of Spain for most of March, with the issue being raised in many political talk shows and press editorials. Many radicals from both parties claimed that the other would just use their coalition partner, effectively diluting their core ideology. As the negotiation advanced, PP leader Antonio Basagoiti made it clear that he would not request positions in the new Government, acknowledging the PSE-EE wish to form a minority government with external support from his party. He vowed to provide stability to the new executive, and attacked the "shamelessness" of PNV outcries, citing that the Álava provincial government was headed by the PNV itself which had only been the third party in the last election. Finally it was decided that the PP would head the Basque Parliament[10] and refrain from moving or supporting any vote of no confidence, while the Socialists would form a minority government on their own and treat the PP as their "preferred" coalition partner, rejecting deals with other parties that went against their "main" one with the conservatives.

The final deal was ratified by both parties and leaked to the public in the last days of March, with its formal signature being performed by the negotiation teams on April 1.[12] The new Parliament assembled on April 3 and elected its bureau, with PP MP Arantza Quiroga as its Speaker and two PSE-EE members ensuring a majority in the 5-member organ. The investiture session for the new Lehendakari, for which both López and the incumbent Ibarretxe stood, was held on May 5. Mr. López was elected Lehendakari of the Basque Country on a 39-35 vote and was sworn in two days later at the Gernika House of Assemblies.

Oh, my bad, I thought it was an actual coalition. Still he did have some PP support (like Cs does now). Actual coalitions seem rare in Spain to be fair, with minority government+conficence and supply being a popular arrangement instead.
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« Reply #26 on: May 16, 2017, 04:54:02 am »

Not that interested in Spanish politics, so enlighten me: Should I root for Diaz if I want PSOE to go the route of PASOK?

Yes and no. She is the one with the highest chance of turning PSOE into PASOK, though unlike PASOK, PSOE would probably survive and still win some elections in the south, turning into a "Partido del Sur Oeste Español" (party of the Spanish SouthWest).

On the other hand, Podemos doesn't seem like a viable party to replace them. Had Errejón won the primaries and become the new leader then sure, PSOE would die with Diaz (though even with Lopez or Sanchez they'd be on a tougher position). But if it's Iglesias vs Diaz I can't see Podemos gaining that much. I guess a result could be:

PP: 35%
Podemos: 19%
PSOE: 19%
Cs: 15%

With massive abstention on the left (a la 2000, but worse) due to the 2 terribly flawed candidates. In fact, if infighting and unpopular candidates continue to dominate on the left, I expect Rajoy (or whoever replaces him if he retires) to keep rulint at least until 2022.

In fact, Rajoy might become the "right wing Felipe Gonzalez" in that regard. A corrupt president who still managed to make the country prosper more or less (we entered NATO with Gonzalez and Rajoy presided over the exit of the crisis)
« Last Edit: May 16, 2017, 05:07:25 am by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #27 on: May 20, 2017, 05:11:47 am »

Considering that tomorrow is the PSOE primary I guess I'd do some predictions. My prediction is:

Governor Susana Díaz (Andalucía): 47%
Former Governor Patxi López (Basque Country): 7%
Former MP and Party Leader Pedro Sánchez (Madrid): 46%

Susana Díaz wins by a hair (and maybe even with some voter fraud). The party is basically split in 2.
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« Reply #28 on: May 21, 2017, 02:10:18 pm »

How is the election going on? From what I'm reading en El Pais is either strong Sanchez (in some parts 90%+) or strong Diaz, but I'm feeling he is doing better overall.

Results from La Rioja

Pedro Sanchez: 602 (60,38%)
Susana Diaz: 225 (22,57%)
Patxi Lopez: 162 (16,25%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PSOELaRioja/status/866366127294861313

I don't know how are PSOE militants in La Rioja (it isn't in Andalucia so I would expect a Sanchez leaning result but I don't really know) but I hope that this performance is a trend across Spain.



Yeah, la Rioja is a Sanchez leaning area, and a small one anyways.

However, the big surprise thus far IMO has been the enclave of Ceuta! Even smaller than la Rioja, but Susana Diaz won there in the endorsements race. However, Sánchez has apparently won it now in the primary!

http://ceutatv.com/not/1636/-pedro-sanchez-se-impone-en-las-primarias-del-psoe-en-ceuta/

Sanchez 168
Diaz 72
(the source didn't tell Lopez's result)

Granted, it's a very small place, but if that holds up on the rest of Spain, Sánchez is probably favoured.
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« Reply #29 on: May 21, 2017, 02:15:54 pm »

According to El Mundo, 50% of the vote is already in and Sánchez is in the lead but no one else is reporting that so I'm not sure if that's true
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« Reply #30 on: May 21, 2017, 02:21:43 pm »

Official website:

http://consultasg.psoe.es/

I think there's already around 70% of the vote in (though there's no overall data that I can find but most places are at that rate)

Thus far:

Sánchez 49%
Diaz: 40.5%
López: 10.5%

Sanchez flips Madrid, Castille-La Mancha, Extremadura and Murcia compared to the endorsements

Also WTF, Patxi Lopez wins in Ceuta XD (unlike what I reported before)
« Last Edit: May 21, 2017, 02:25:18 pm by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #31 on: May 21, 2017, 03:12:49 pm »

Pedro Sánchez leads in all regions except the Basque Country (Patxi López) Andalusia and Aragón (Susana Díaz)

Diaz has congratulated Pedro Smiley

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

Once a year has passed from the last dissolution, Mariano Rajoy can call a new election whenever he wants. However, he's not going to call now because new corruption scandals might hurt the PP's electorally. Likely he will try to resist at least a couple of years, in the hope that the economy continues growing and the situation in Europe is more stable. Given that he governs in minority, he had to reach an agreement with C's, the Basque and the Canarian nationalists in order to pass the budget. While C's gave its support in exchange of nearly nothing, the PNV obtained important concessions and the Canarian (there are 2 regionalist deputies: 1 CC and 1 NC elected in the PSOE list) will likely obtain additional investments. I guess the interest of the Albert Rivera party, whose voters come mainly from the PP, is to appear as serious and responsible people that don't put obstacles to the governability of the country, as well as to make clear that they won't allow that the Podemos populists to govern. Also, there are intermittent rumours on a new election in Catalonia, but it's not in the interest of premier Carles Puigdemont to call because his party (PDCat, formerly CDC) is in bad shape. As for the motion of confidence, it's a Podemos initiative and is not supported neither by the PSOE nor by C's. Now that Pedro Sánchez is back, he will have to make a decision. I think it's not likely that the PSOE is going to back Podemos on that, but Sánchez has promised to move the party to the left and trying to cooperate with the Podemos people. We'll see.


My bet is PSOE abstains on Podemos' vote of no confidence (as opposed to voting yes/no) so it fails anyways. However, shortly after PSOE and Podemos begin to plan one, maybe alongside the Catalan parties (promising a referéndum).

Alternatively there's the Cs+PSOE+Podemos route like in Murcia, but just like in Murcia it's only good for making the new president an interim one who will only dissolve parliament and call a new election, so unless there's a new PP scandal involving Rajoy, I don't see it.
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« Reply #32 on: May 21, 2017, 03:17:41 pm »

Antonio Hernando (PSOE speaker in the Congress of Deputies) has resigned from his position. Not a huge surprise, Sánchez already said he was going to replace him if he won, so he probably just resigned as the less embarrassing option.

For those who don't know, Hernando was pro-Sánchez back on the day, but then became pro Diaz.

Edit: Just realised that Susana Diaz has become the 4th woman to run for PSOE leader and fail. Before her came:

- Former minister of work Matilde Fernández (2000)
- Then Leader of the PSOE representation in the European Parliament Rosa Diez (2000)
- Then minister of defense Carme Chacón (2012)

In this sense, she kinda becomes the Spanish Hillary Clinton as "woman supported by the establishment who fails". (the 3 before weren't the officialist candidates, especially the first 2)
« Last Edit: May 21, 2017, 04:21:38 pm by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #33 on: May 22, 2017, 03:00:46 am »


To be fair Andalucia has 1 in 4 PSOE members so it's not that big of a landslide. End result was 50-40-10.

Sanchez performed slightly better in terms of percentage compared to 2014 (when he got 49%)
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« Reply #34 on: May 22, 2017, 03:06:04 am »

And IMO Sanchez's election is a bold move. The PSOE has a lot to gain, but also a lot to lose.

If Sanchez is seen as believable and as a true leftist that isn't a radical one, they have a good shot at taking some of the more conservative Podemos voters (those on the Errejón side of the party). They will lose some voters to Cs (or possibly to abstentions) on the right, but not as many as they'd win on the left. Depending on how many net votes they win, they might even have a chance at winning the election! (something like PSOE 29%, PP 28%, Cs 16% Podemos 16%)

However  if it's seen as "just another move from obsessed egocentric Sanchez to become PM", then PSOE will lose those centrist voters while not gaining any left wing ones. Maybe even getting to Cs levels.
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« Reply #35 on: May 22, 2017, 03:37:19 am »

Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?

No idea. I think Carmena is on the moderate side of the party while Colau has her own party and stuff (Podemos' alliances can get really complicated really fast). As for PSOE stealing either, I don't see that as an option.

For Carmena I'm not even sure if she'll run for reelection as she is quite old already. She's 73, would be 75 in 2019 and 79 if she finished a second term. But if she does I doubt that she'll betray Ahora Madrid. Of the 2 she is the likelier to move to PSOE but that's still extremely unlikely as she's been in the far left her entire life (she was a candidate for MP for the Communist Party in 1977 for example)

As for Colau, I think she is going to run for governor of Catalonia in the next regional election there. She'll run with her own party (en Comú), with her candidacy being supported by ICV (weird mix of greens and IU) and Podemos, like Cat si que es pot back in 2015. Last poll I checked had Colau in a tie for second with the Cs candidate Inés Arrimadas, both at 16%.

However, Colau will not support PSOE either.
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« Reply #36 on: May 23, 2017, 06:06:02 am »

That doesn't work, presumably because it's Imgur. Perhaps you could save it in your gallery on your Atlas profile, that always works.

Ok, let's try this map from El Confidencial then


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« Reply #37 on: May 28, 2017, 07:47:50 am »

El País poll about Catalonia and the situation there:



Notable questions:

¿Has the PP government handled the Catalonia situation correctly?
(yes-no)
Catalonia: 4-96
Rest of Spain: 19-77

Interestingly even PP voters say it isn't handled correctly

The best way to solve the Catalonian issue is for a legal referendum approved by Catalonia and the central government to happen

Catalonia: 71-26
Rest of Spain: 38-62

Interestingly PSOE is split in the matter, with Catalan PSOE voters favouring a referendum 61-36, but all others opposing it by 44-56.

Do you think Catalonia's independence will be possible in the near future?

Catalonia: 34-62
Rest of Spain: 12-85


The government of Catalonia should:

Keep going with the independence process: (Catalonia 31%; Rest of Spain 11%)
Adopt a negotiationg strategy: (Catalonia 60%; Rest of Spain 79%)
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 07:50:28 am by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #38 on: May 29, 2017, 07:40:24 am »

Ok, it's official now; Rajoy will manage to pass the 2017 budget, he signed a deal with NC today. That also means that he probably won't call early elections at least until 2019 (probably at the same time as the European or the regional elections), recycling 2017's budget for 2018 if necessary.

The votes will go as follows:
Yes (176)Sad PP (137)+ Cs (32)+ PNV (5) + CC (1) + NC (1)

PP's total includes the MPs from UPN in Navarra and Foro in Asturias.

No (174): PSOE (84) + UP (67) + PDECat (8 ) + ERC (9) + Bildu (2) + Compromis (4)

UP's total includes the MPs from IU.

Interestingly, Pedro Quevedo (NC's only MP) has said he will support Pedro Sánchez in a no confidence vote against Rajoy (thus keeping the promise he made to PSOE), but that in the mean time if he can get stuff for the Canary Islands he will do that even if it means allying with PP.

Then again even with NC, Podemos and the Catalan parties a no confidence vote would still need either CC and Bildu (unlikely, CC does not like Podemos and they need PP to stay alive in the Canary Islands' government), PNV (slightly better but still not likely as they are reaching very good deals with PP) or Cs (with Cs the Catalan parties wouldn't even be needed, but if PSOE+Cs+Podemos didn't work in 2016, it won't work now)
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 07:42:00 am by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #39 on: May 29, 2017, 07:43:56 am »

Poll for the Barcelona City Hall.

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/barcelona/encuesta-periodico-colau-ganaria-otra-vez-las-municipales-con-erc-como-principal-partido-oposicion-6064862?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cm

Ada Colau's party would win again local elections in Barcelona, ERC  would be the second force in the City Hall at the expense of the PDECat (formerly CDC, CiU).



So, according to that poll there are 2 possibilities:

Far left ¿pro independence (idk how you could be pro independence in a town hall, but whatever)? En Comu+ERC+CUP government

Mainstream left, not as pro independence En Comú+ERC+PSC government

Also, En Comú+ERC is very close to a majority. If they 2 alone get one, the government will almost certainly be En Comú+ERC

In any case though, it seems Colau will stay as mayor for another 4 years.
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« Reply #40 on: May 30, 2017, 07:47:55 am »

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:



249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.

Interesting to see that while under Spain's current system Podemos beating PSOE in seats but not in votes was a very real possibility even if it didn't happen in the end. However with the UK's system the reverse would happen! PSOE wins the popular vote but gets less seats than UP!

According to the website that happens because PSOE gets very close in many places (La Gomera, industrial areas in Barcelona) but still loses to PP while Podemos has its voters distributed more effectively, concentrated in certain areas (Basque Country, urban Catalonia and some areas of Madrid).

Also, not all seats have the same population since the current system is already not fuly proportional (rural areas have more seats than they should). The Canary Islands for example are terribly malapportioned, with the seats in the minor islands having a lot less people in them than those in the major islands. For example El Hierro and La Palma both have one seat, even though La Palma has more than 8 times el Hierro's population.

Another example is Las Palmas city seat, which would have 350 000 people in it! (35 times more than El Hierro)

A more proportional map there would look like this (requires splitting Las Palmas and Santa Cruz-La Laguna into several seats or multi member districts though)



It does not change the result (PP still sweeps all 15 seats) though. In 2015 though PSOE would have very narrowly won Tenerife South West and Podemos would have won Fuerteventura's seat, as well as some in Las Palmas (they would have won all 3 if it was winner takes all)

Still a great map though.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2017, 08:03:24 am by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #41 on: May 30, 2017, 06:36:31 pm »

Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:



249 PP
 38 Podemos
 33 PSOE
 23 ERC
   7 PNV
   0 C's

A super PP majority.

With ERC winning inland Catalonia, and Unidos Podemos winning what I assume is Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida, would it be safe to presume that there is higher support for independence in rural Catalonia than in the cities? why would this be?

Yeah, that's safe to presume. In fact if you go back (2011 and earlier), CiU performed better in rural areas while PSOE won mostly just Barcelona and its suburbs. They have each been replaced as the leading party in each area by ERC and Podemos respectively, but the divide is still there.

If you look at the association of municipalities for independence, most are in rural areas, with the more urban coast not being part of it.



Similarly if you look at the results of the 2015 regional election, the pro-independence parties win in most places, but they lose Barcelones (Barcelona), Baix Llobregat, Valles occidental (both Barcelona suburbs), Tarragones (Tarragona), Baix Penedés (idk why), and the Aran Valley (surprisingly one of the most anti independence areas, one where Occitan/Aranese is co-official with Catalan and Spanish)



As for why, I guess it's because Barcelona (and to a lesser extent Tarragona) are more "cosmopolitan", have a higher population of Spanish "inmigrants" while rural areas have a higher population of Catalan speakers.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2017, 06:40:54 pm by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #42 on: May 31, 2017, 07:29:15 am »

Here's another "Spain's election except with the British electoral system" map, this one for 2015



PP 206
Podemos 75
PSOE 44
CDC 12 (less votes than ERC)
PNV 8
ERC 5

They also made a map for 2011



PP 258
PSOE 46
CiU 33
PNV 8
Amaiur 5

And for 2008



PSOE 182
PP 161
PNV 3
CiU 3
CC 1

Interestingly, this one isn't that far off from the actual 2008 results (which shows that the more the 2 main parties get, the more faithful it is, and also how dominant PP+PSOE were back then)

http://simulaciones.es/blog/sistema-electoral-britanico/

http://archive.is/fH1AS
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« Reply #43 on: May 31, 2017, 10:45:34 am »

Funny story in the budget debate today: PM Rajoy accidentally voted against one part of his own budget XD

Didn't change the end result though, that item was passed almost unanimously (only Rajoy voted against it)
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« Reply #44 on: June 03, 2017, 06:23:35 am »

So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.

I'd say Rajoy is probably safe until 2019. Let's look at the parties represented, from most pro Rajoy to least pro Rajoy.

PP: Well, they'll obviously support themselves XD

CC
: CC needs PP to keep a stable government in the Canary Islands (the majority would now be CC+PP+ASG support) and PP is looking forwards to entering the Canarian government and making it a formal coalition. Similarly PP needs CC for stability in Spain (although 1 MP can only get you so far but still). That makes for some easy deals.

Cs: They are probably Rajoy's most loyal support, but they don't seem happy dealing with the nationalist Canarian/Basque Parties. They also are not that tolerant to corruption (although their tolerance is still too high IMO), so a very large scandal involving Rajoy directly could force a Cs+PSOE+Podemos coalition for a new snap election like it was discussed in Murcia.

PNV: They seem to have the highest price for reaching a deal of all the nationalist parties. However, they are a right wing party in the end, so dealing with PP is not that bad for them if they can get significant concessions like with the budget.

NC: They are to PSOE what Compromís is to Podemos. A small amount of independent MPs who contested the election with the large national party, and who are more moderate than the main party. However, NC is still a left wing party, and they are very wary because they know that whatever concessions they get will not be handled by them (NC is in opposition in the Canary Islands assembly) so CC might steal their achievements and they might demoralize their left wing voters, who would move to Podemos. Then again most predictions for 2019 I've seen have NC going up, not down, but IMO the Canary Islands are probably one of the harder communities to predict. No polling doesn't help.

In any case, they are the magical "MP number 176" for a bare majority, which does give them a lot of leverage for a party with 1 MP. However, they've said they will support any PSOE led no confidence vote, so they will not keep Rajoy in government unless it's necessary.

PDECat: If they dropped their independence position, I'd probably put them ahead of PNV. However, I'm putting them here because while they won't support Rajoy on important stuff, they can support him on more minor things in exchange for stuff for Catalonia, like with the recient port reform. It's also a much easier route than the one used for the budget, as PP+Cs+PDECat does have a majority (177 seats).

PSOE: Under Susana Díaz they'd be ahead of PDECat, and possibly also ahead of NC. However now that Sánchez is the secretary general they'll have a more open opposition to Rajoy, and won't reach deals with him unless it's completely necessary. Then again there's the possibility of Sánchez going back on his word with his move to the left being just a strategy to survive as leader of the party.

From here on these parties will probably never reach a deal with Rajoy


Compromís
: Valencian nationalists, and thus they don't see PSOE as a complete competitor. Still, they contested the election with Podemos, not PSOE, which puts them quite a bit to the left. I can't see Compromís behaving like NC and dealing with Rajoy in exchange for stuff for Valencia. However of this group they are the likeliest to do so.

ERC: Putting them here because  their entire manifesto is "Independence!!!1111!!". If Rajoy decides to surrender on that for some reason, he'll get ERC.

Bildu: Same as ERC, but in Basque

Podemos: While PP+Podemos does have a majority (204 seats), they are the extremes and thus will never ever vote the same in anything.

So, the kingmakers in this case are NC (for passing important stuff), PDECat (For passing minor laws) and PNV (for stopping no confidence votes)

If Sánchez can somehow convince PNV that they will be better under a left wing PSOE government AND decides to give Catalonia a referendum, we'll get PM Pedro Sánchez via no confidence vote. Otherwise it's PM Rajoy until at least 2019 (I doubt he'll finish the 4 year term, most likely he'll call a snap election for late 2019 at the latest)
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« Reply #45 on: June 04, 2017, 01:14:14 pm »

What would be a good showing for each of the 4 major parties?

Too early to say, but IMO this are the best possible showings. Also adding 2019 regional possible pickups because it's only 2 years from no so why not:

PP: 36% or 155+ seats. Anything that allows just a PP+Cs government (without nationalists) would be pretty good though. A PP overall majority becomes a posibility if they reach at least 40%, but it's almost impossible as of now (though PP is the only party with even a chance of that. I'd give it a 5% chance).

In terms of 2019 pickups, basically all PSOE led governments are a possible pickup, though obviously some are harder than others. A good night in 2019 would probably have PP picking up Valencia, Balearic Islands, Aragon, Castille-La Mancha and Cantabria (all from PSOE except Cantabria, who would be picked up from left wing regionalists), and holding Madrid. The Canary Islands' electoral system is too ed up for PP to win, Andalucía and Extremadura are very strong PSOE strongholds and there's no way PP is picking up Catalonia or Navarra. Finally I think PSOE is safe in Asturias. Their main competitor might be Podemos actually.

PSOE

Improving on their most recient results (22.5%, 90 seats) would be pretty good for PSOE. Ideally 25% or more, or reaching 100 seats would be a very good night for them. Reaching Rubalcaba 2011 levels (29%, 110 seats) is their ceiling IMO, and that's also very unlikely.

As for regions in 2019 they'll be playing defense as they had a very good night back then. So a good night will probably have PSOE holding all governors (ie no net change). Their only reasonable pickup seems Madrid. However one thing to keep in mind is that all PSOE governors but one (Francina Armengol, Balearic Islands) were anti-Sánchez in the primary and while Sánchez has said he won't fire anyone, that might still be an issue.

UP

Becoming the 2nd largest party (above PSOE) for good would be a good showing. A very good one might be 100+ seats or 26%+ of the vote.

In regional terms, Aragon (Echenique is very well known) and Asturias seem their best chances at a pickup. Maybe Madrid as well if Errejón gets momentum (the PSOE leader there is also very popular)

Cs

17% of the vote or 60+ seats would be a really good showing.

In regional terms there's no place where Cs might be able to form a government. Catalonia is their best chance at a regional pickup (they are the official opposition there), but even that's unlikely unless unionists become stronger and a Cs+PP+PSC government becomes possible
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« Reply #46 on: June 05, 2017, 07:42:12 am »

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html
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« Reply #47 on: June 05, 2017, 09:41:10 am »

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier

Not really. NC Report has PP a lot higher and PSOE a lot lower. UP and Cs are also not the same (although they are closer). Anyways, if you average the 3 polls you get:

PP 30.9%
PSOE 23.1%
UP 19.4%
Cs 15.6%

So compared to June 2016, PP is down by 2, PSOE up by 0.5, UP down by 1.5 and Cs up by 2.5
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« Reply #48 on: June 09, 2017, 06:40:31 am »

Catalan premier Puigdemont has anounced the date and question of their referendum. It will take place on the 1st of October and the question will be: "Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state in the form of a republic?"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/06/09/inenglish/1496995696_161601.html

Seems like an odd choice in the 2nd part (the form of Republic). I thought that was implied? Did anyone expect Catalonia to become independent but keep the monarchy?

My question now is if it will end like the 2014 one or if some unionists will go out and vote even if it's meaningless. Supposedly it's a binding referendum, but most likely it won't happen. I bet it will be ruled unconstitutional before tomorrow.
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« Reply #49 on: June 12, 2017, 05:25:37 am »

Cadena SER/My word poll:

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2017/06/11/politica/1497169995_755970.html

PP: 28.6%
PSOE: 24.8%
UP: 18.9%
Cs: 15.7%

The most interesting question IMO is this one though:

¿Who would make the best prime minister?

Pedro Sánchez: 31.1%
Albert Rivera: 28.5%
Pablo Iglesias: 24.8%
Mariano Rajoy: 15.6%

I wonder how is Pedro Sánchez so high! I get Rivera since he does have very high approval ratings, but Sanchez and Iglesias seem too high and Rajoy seems too low. Half of PP voters preferring Rivera over Rajoy! And I thought most internal critics of Rajoy came from his right (like former PM Aznar), not from his left.

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