Spanish elections and politics

[Oryxslayer]

All these scandals make it seem like the Sanchez government came to power 'before its prime' so to speak. They were thrust into power and had to stick people in government without a proper vetting. Might not be true, but thats the image.

[Oryxslayer]

And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468

Well, that would be a quicker govt. collapse then expected, I thought they would last till spring.

[Oryxslayer]

Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?

Yes, apparently VOX is rising more because of Anti-Catalonia and Feminism laws rather than anti-migrant policies.

[Oryxslayer]

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

[Oryxslayer]

This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

Sanchéz government was already, basically, on life-support even before the Andalusian election. He doesn't have the votes to pass his budget as the Catalan parties are refusing to support him because of the treatment of the jailed separatists. And this disastrous results for the PSOE, only makes things worse for him, as he will be pressured by both left and right, and it's unclear how he would act under pressure.

Well I always expected him to fail on the budget, and it was always a just question of whether the Spanish election would be before/concurrent/after the EU election.

[Oryxslayer]

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

The efectiveness of the cordon sanitaire is highly debatable, but in no way that policy is undemocratic. Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements. In any case, Cs will have to show what is its true nature. Oranges claim that Macron is their reference. VOX leader Santiago Abascal is a great admirer of Marine Le Pen. The visions of Macron and Le Pen are antithetical. Where is Cs actually?

Oh, I'd actually be in favour of an alternative coalition if one was actually viable (say, PSOE+Cs with an overall majority).

But right now the only possibility would be either PSOE+Cs+AA (probably with Marín as premier) or a grand coalition, neither of which is happening. Though I'll admit I like the "Borgen-like" PSOE+Cs+AA with Marín as premier but I fear that would be worse for Spain in the long run, emboldening Vox and PP.

In any case it seems clear to me that they'll do a deal with Vox. I wonder what Manuel Valls has to say about it.

Yeah I would also prefer a govt without VOX here...but realistically C's would prefer having VOX on their side rather then any friend of Podemos. The only realistic other option I feel is PSOE+C's minority with AA effectively capitulating from the outside, but that won't last long and likely collapses after the expected 2019 election.  

[Oryxslayer]

David Duke, white supremacist and former KKK leader, also known for his participation in the Charlotteville racist riots, congratulates VOX:

"VOX triumphs in Andalusia! 12 seats and the end of the socialist regime 🇪🇸 #EspañaViva makes it history and shows that change is possible. The Reconquista begins in the Andalusian lands and will be extended in the rest of Spain 📣 #AndalucíaPorEspaña"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/12/04/actualidad/1543928361_948093.html

The Reactionary Internationale in motion.

I really doubt anyone knows who David Duke is

In Spain, yes. On this forum, no

[Oryxslayer]

New left wing party with former judge Baltasar Garzón and former IU leader Gaspar Llamazares as main figures could contest next EP, regional and local elections. The party is created from a platform of IU critics and left-wing disenchanted called Actúa ("Act")

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181215/453558362197/llamazares-garzon-actua-nueva-formacion-elecciones.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=politica&utm_campaign=lv&fbclid=IwAR1bYTFgysHjmgoqKdqc45Q71alKOEzofQ6Bzmo09jSFcO2S0hp9Jy_5Ryw

Former IU leaders Gaspar Llamazares and Cayo Lara, the IU mayor of Zamora and other critics signed a document criticizing IU and Podemos leaderships shortly after the Andalusian elections. They accused Alberto Garzón and Pablo Iglesias of having more interest in surpassing PSOE as the main force in the left than building a progressive majority.

Do we think there is enough time until new elections are called for these guys to go anywhere or impact the results, or is the timeframe too soon?

[Oryxslayer]

That seems a pretty huge bump for Vox...?

It appears to be mostly coming from PP/PSOE rather then C's which is interesting.

[Oryxslayer]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

What probably happens is a PP-C's minority govt with outside support from VOX, similar to Andalusia right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Each new day brings worse results for PSOE. Clear PP-C's-Vox govt, no majority for any government that could be formed based on the Left or Left-center. Most notably, they have Vox winning something in mainland Spain, rather then simply being confined to the African enclaves.

[Oryxslayer]

RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)



Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.

More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

[Oryxslayer]

Regarding the other polls:

Hamalgama-Ágora Integral is a pollster most commonly used by the regional Canarian newspapers La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife (in fact it was published in these newspapers). They rarely publish polls and when they do it's almost always for regional elections. So I'm surprised to see them make a national poll

As for the seat allocation in the Público poll, I don't think it's that weird. The PSOE-PP gap there is 0.8%, with a 9 seat gap. For comparison in 1996 PP beat PSOE by 1.2% and got a larger gap of 15 seats. Seems ok with me.

More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

I'm very skeptical that the Catalans would prop up Sánchez again. If they don't even support his budget, why would they support his government?

The only way for Sánchez to stay in power is with a PSOE+Cs deal (assuming Cs is even willing to do that, though they aren't allergic to supporting PSOE, they are certainly not a fan of Sánchez)

Of all the polls none really give PSOE any chance of forming a government.

Sorry, if wasn't clear, by them I meant PSOE+C's. If Podemos are truly imploding, then the amount of options available to a left-wing voter are limited, which may breath new life into the Red-Orange Govt. Right now though, that option isn't available.

[Oryxslayer]

But given C's position on Catalonia would not they prefer PP's hardline position?  Or will PSOE shift to a hardline position on Catalonia to get C onboard since given the assumed implosion of Podemos there will no longer be a need to care about Podemos's position on Catalonia?

I don't think PSOE would need to shift, hypothetical negotiations between C's and PSOE would feature some red-lines in that regard. PSOE wouldn't have to change, but their government would have to accept a anti-Catalonia and centralist position.