Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Inb4 'Muricans come in saying "Whaaaaat??"

http://es.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Murican

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More news. Former PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero confirms that he met with Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejón from Podemos. The meeting was facilitated by former minister of Defense and prominent territorial 'baron' José Bono, who defended Iglesias' father before the Tribunal of Public Order in Franco times. They talked about Latin America and the Euro and apparently had "significant differences". ZP commented days later that meeting with Pedro Sánchez. Pablo Iglesias said from Brussels that he would be "delighted" in having a chat with the current PSOE leader. Pedro Sánchez, who says that there are "objective reasons" for calling snap elections in Andalusia, sees "no reason" to have a meeting with the leader of Podemos.

Chattering classes say that ZP and Bono would prefer Susana Díaz over Pedro Sánchez, but I can't confirm the gossip. Zapatero, who backed Sánchez against Madina for PSOE leadership, says that Díaz is "by far the best current ruler". Zapatero and Sánchez had distanced each other since the latter proposed to counter reform the controversial reform of Article 135, agreed between PSOE and PP by the end of ZP's term.

El Mundo has an extensive coverage (they must be rubbing their hands )

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/01/21/54bf7606268e3e97278b456f.html

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/01/22/54c0cf1d22601d5d6b8b4572.html

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/01/22/54c017c022601d270f8b457a.html
 

[Velasco]

Velasco, what is the status of nuclear power in Spain? Have Podemos and the other new parties found a position on the plants?

According to the Spanish Nuclear Security Council (CSN):

http://www.csn.es/index.php/en/nuclear-power-plants

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There is specific info of every plant available in English language at the CSN website. According to the World Nuclear Association (the 'nuclear lobby', in other words), "government commitment to the future of nuclear energy in Spain has been uncertain, but has firmed up as the cost of subsidising renewables becomes unaffordable."

In 1984, Felipe González administration (PSOE) approved a nuclear moratorium. Since then, PSOE's stance is to keep centrals in operation until the end of service life, as well opposes to build new plants. In 2008, the Zapatero administration promised to close all power plants at the end of their lifetime and to promote research in renewable energies. By that time, the government implemented a subsidy policy for renewables and passed the Sustainable Economy Act in 2010, which intended a 20% reduction in greenhouse emissions in 2020 and a similar increase in the use of renewables. Some environmentalist organisations deemed the initiative as "contradictory" and "unsustainable" (Ecologistas en Acción). In 2011, the Act was amended by CiU initiative in order to extend the lifetime of nuclear plants beyond 40 years if the CSN reported favourably. Once in power, the Rajoy administration suppressed subsidies for renewables. PP opposed to the closing of the Santa María de Garoña plant, the oldest in service, initially planned in 2013.

Nearly all  parties, including Podemos, support the nuclear moratorium and the gradual closure of nuclear plants. Podemos in particular supports a "programmed closing" of plants, "assuring employment alternatives for workers". As well Podemos wants to increase investment projects in renewables to reduce greenhouse emissions, a programmed closing of coal and gas plants, supports energy self-generation, ban on fracking, etc.

http://podemos.info/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Programa-Podemos.pdf

PP, CiU and UPyD advocate for "reopening the debate" on nuclear energy.

[Velasco]

Luis Bárcenas left prison yesterday evening and spoke in third person: "I have no message to Rajoy (...) I listened his advice and I thank him, Luis has been truly strong." Bárcenas was referencing a SMS message in which the Spanish PM advised him to be "strong" in the face of adversity. In July 2013, El Mundo released messages crossed between Rajoy and Bárcenas leaked by the former PP treasurer, angry because PP's parliamentary spokesman Alfonso Alonso called him "offender". Alonso replaced Ana Mato as minister of Healthcare; Mato was forced to resign after judge Pablo Ruz called her to testify as "lucrative participant" in the Gürtel corruption network.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/22/inenglish/1421936207_172542.html

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[Velasco]

PP was holding a political convention this weekend marked by the Aznar comeback, attacks on Podemos and the shadow of Luis Bárcenas, wafting in the air.

On Friday former PM José María Aznar led the way to PP leadership, as well posed some rhetorical questions: "Where is PP?" "Does PP aspire to win?" Aznar answered both saying that PP has the obligation to win the next elections, because it's "the best instrument to defend the interests of Spaniards" but it mustn't "neglect discouragement and suspicion". Aznar advised Rajoy and his entourage a "back to basics", as well keeping the party's head up. "Spain needs more PP, more State, more Nation and more unity, no less (...) needs more determination against those who want to destroy it. More rule of law, more reforms and more confidence". In his view it's not the future of PP what is at stake, "it's the future of Spain". Because of that, he encourages the party for not accepting "defiance" nor "separatism" and demanded "a credible project" for the country, "unity and courage". On corruption Aznar said that "it's a cancer that we shouldn't tolerate" and warned that "every one must answer for their actions", claiming that he can answer for his own actions "looking into the eyes". Former PM remembered terrorism victims on the anniversary of the killing of Gregorio Ordóñez, a PP councilor in San Sebastián killed by ETA 20 years ago.

PP secretary general María Dolores de Cospedal, who maintains that the country's choices are between "PP or nothing", seemed to reply Aznar. "Unity is the pillar of our strength. We have a project. Here is PP to serve Spaniards".

Former Madrid premier Esperanza Aguirre charged against Podemos, saying that it's a mixture of "the worst of the most archaic communism and the worst of its demagoguery". Aguirre advocated for a "deep ideological rearming", stressing that "all of we are dispensable, but not our ideals and principles (...) even more when separatists want to break Spain (...) and populists want to end the Spanish State".

On Saturday Mariano Rajoy continued the charge against Podemos: "What system they want to change?". Rajoy argued that system allowed some Podemos leaders to study in public schools and get scholarship grants, in allusion to a controversy around a research contract won by Iñigo Errejón -who is a political scientist and the campaign manager of Podemos- at the Malaga University. The research director was a professor from that university who is in Podemos too, and some media claimed there were irregularities in that contract. Some mayors and village councilors took the stand, in a scenography intended to be a reply to the new rival: "I am a mayor. I'm electrician. I belong to the electricians' caste".

MEP Esteban González Pons, who often chats with Pablo Iglesias at Strasbourg, followed: "I believe in a Spain without castes and saviours", making a distinction between "the Constitutional Spain" and the Podemos "Soviet Spain". "Corrupts are the excuse for extremists to liquidate democracy"

Yesterday night, I watched Pablo Iglesias in TV and he was smiling while watching some cuts from that conference. He thinks the more PP attacks, the better for his party.

Luis Bárcenas, on the other hand, said that Mariano Rajoy was aware since the beginning of the existence of a parallel accounting to finance PP.

On PSOE, Andalusian premier Susana Díaz stated that her priority is Andalusia and not the socialist primaries in July. She's currently pregnant and will give birth by that month. Podemos is trying to organise the campaign against the clock, because everybody is certain that Díaz is going to call. There is concern in PP because Andalusian people doesn't know regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno. PP assures that internal polling places conservatives trailing Susana Díaz by 3%, so they think they can compete.

[Velasco]

Some regional and local polls.

Andalusia: Regional Elections. Invymark/La Sexta.

PSOE 39.6%, PP 29.4%, Podemos 15.2%, IU 8.7%, UPyD 3%

Sample size: 1200. Fieldwork: Jan 19.

Basque Country: Municipal Elections. Ikerfel/El Correo, Diario Vasco

Bilbao (29 councilors): PNV 40.3% (13-14 councilors), Podemos 15.4% (5), EH Bildu 11.1% (3-4), PSOE 10.1% (3), PP 9.4% (3), IU 4.7% (0-1), UPyD 4.1% (-)

Donostia-San Sebastián (27 councilors) PNV 29.4% (9), PSOE 18.2% (5-6), EH Bildu 17.9% (5-6), Podemos 14.6% (4-5), PP 10.1% (3), IU 4.3% (-), UPyD 1%

Vitoria-Gasteiz (27 councilors): PP 18.5% (6), PNV 18.4% (6), Podemos 16.3% (5), EH Bildu 14.3% (4-5), PSOE 13.3% (4), UPyD 5.3% (0-1), IU 4.7% (0-1).

Council threshold: 5%

Sample: 3000 (all Basque Country). Fieldwork: Jan 7-13.

Edit: The poll estimates 0-1 councilors for IU in Bilbao. It also estimates results for the Juntas Generales (provincial legislatures): clear PNV lead in Biscay, Podemos comes second; PNV-EH Bildu draw in Gipuzkoa, Podemos third; PNV-Podemos draw in Alava, EH Bildu comes in a close third.

http://www.electograph.com/2015/01/jj-gg-pais-vasco-enero-2015-sondeo.html

[Velasco]

Is it fair to say that the Podemos lists' performance at local level will be expected to be lower than their true national level?

At local level in particular, it's likely that Podemos will perform lower because of some factors. First of all, Podemos leadership decided not to run under the party banner in municipal elections for strategic reasons. Territorial implementation out of the main cities is not complete and, above all, people at national leadership thought they wouldn't be able to have control on local lists -they feared careerists infiltrating in them, among other things-. Instead, Podemos is going to promote or support local independent lists. They can run lists with other left parties on a local basis, but the candidacies must have a 'civic' independent character, never be formal coalitions. That rule has an exception in Barcelona, where Podemos will run in a coalition with ICV-EUiA and other groups into the Guanyem ("Let's Win") project. Local pollng is asking for Podemos anyway, and likely they will be present in the main cities under 'white labels'.

To the contrary, Podemos will run under its banner in regional elections. As well, they can run as Podemos for the Juntas Generales in the Basque Country and the Cabildos (insular councils) in the Canaries. In Andalusia, there is the Susana Díaz factor (the woman is popular) and the problems faced by Podemos to implement its presence in a large territory where small and medium sized towns have a substantial weight. 

[Velasco]

Confirmed. Andalusian premier Susana Díaz phoned yesterday evening IU regional coordinator Antonio Maíllo, in order to put an end to the coalition government. Election date is set on March 22.

[Velasco]

It's true of SYRIZA (not being as strong below the national level) so I think it would hold for Podemos, a similar type of party.

That comment made me remember a yesterday's article stressing the five differences and two similarities between Podemos and Syriza.

Differences:

1) Radical Left vs. ideological transversality.

While the party led Alexis Tsipras is positioned on the classical left-right ideological axis, Podemos seeks for "the centrality of the stage" because, according to Íñigo Errejón, "the classic divide doesn't create hegemony".

2) Alphabet soup or political party?

Syriza started to walk in 2004 and it was a coalition until thee 2012 election. Podemos rejected the coalition formula since the beginning. In past autumn's foundational convention, Podemos made clear that it won't participate in "an alphabet soup nor in a negotiation between parties". Actually, Syriza is what IU intended to be since it was founded in 1986.

3) International affiliation.

Syriza belongs to the European Left party, which Podemos hasn't joined in spite of being part of the GUE/NGL group in the EP.

4) Electoral growth.

Between 2004 and 2009 elections Syriza grew slowly, getting around 5% of the vote. It was in 2012 when the Tsipras' party went up. Podemos got 8% in the first elections they contested, only 4 months before being established as a 'movement' -it wasn't a party until the October convention- and polls say now that it's disputing the first place... only one year after the inaugural meeting at a theatre in Lavapiés (in the centre of Madrid)!

5) Alexis Tsipras and Pablo Iglesias.

The career of Alexis Tsipras began at the university, he was a youth leader in the then powerful Communist Party and soon became in a prominent political figure, topping a list for the Athens mayoralty and getting into parliament. Pablo Iglesias was always linked to politics from the sidelines, he focused first on his studies rather than institutional politics. Since 2012, he was starting to be known by the public -albeit in a limited way- producing his own political show; later he reached a broader audience by participating in political talk shows at generalist channels. He only entered electoral politics in 2014.

Similarities

1) Podemos and Syriza have moderated stances on the debt and share a similar analysis on the solution of the problem, albeit the magnitudes of the debt are different in Spain (100%) and Greece (175%).

2) Podemos and Syriza advocate for the end of austerity and use similar rhetoric when referring to the infamous Troika and the "austericide".

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-Syriza-diferencias-similitudes_0_348915514.html

On the Podemos October convention, there's an article in Newsweek that you might find useful:

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/31/podemosradical-party-turning-spanish-politics-head-279018.html

[Velasco]

It seems to me that Podemos has also some a lot in common with the M5S. Are they organized like a classic party (Syriza) or do they try and use online/direct democracy like the Five Stars Movement?

On the use of the Internet, I'd say Podemos people is more savvy than the Grillo troupe. In that regard, they are more similar to Potami than Syriza. As for the political message, that of Podemos goes beyond the Grillo's "Vafanculo!", even though Pablo Iglesias et alii tend to simplify too much when speaking in public.

[Velasco]

Are they organized like a classic party (Syriza) or do they try and use online/direct democracy like the Five Stars Movement?

I didn't reply that part. Sorry, swl. At organisational level, Podemos has right now a mixture of both. As you can read in the paragraphs quoted below, there was a debate in the foundational convention on the organisational model between opposite sides. Now Podemos is electing local and regional executives throughout Spain.

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/31/podemosradical-party-turning-spanish-politics-head-279018.html

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Podemos sees the triumph of Syriza as a new political era that will come to Spain:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/26/inenglish/1422267821_418365.html

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Rajoy, on his part, closed PP political convention warning Spaniards to not play "Russian Roulette" with Podemos:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/26/inenglish/1422290637_539732.html

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[Velasco]

The graph shows the regional election results between 1982 and 2012. It's normal that Podemos doesn't appear, because it didn't exist. They will run in Andalusia, of course

One of the main motivations of Susana Díaz is proving that Podemos can be beaten at the polls, as well she seeks weaken the IU and testing herself on the electoral ground -she replaced premier José Antonio Griñán in 2013, who ran as candidate in the previous election and later resigned in the wake of the ERE scandal.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/26/inenglish/1422272758_563431.html

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It's possible that MEP Teresa Rodríguez, who will be in all likelihood the next regional secretary, doesn't run as candidate. Podemos will hold primaries soon. Some locally famous persons or even professor Juan Torres (co-writer of the Podemos economic draft) were mentioned as possible candidates.

[Velasco]

Reactions to the Syriza's victory in Greece in the Spanish media.

El País (centre-left, PSOE) “agitation in Europe”; ABC (old-fashioned conservative monarchist, PP): “Populism Takes Over Greece”; Cinco Días (economic paper, shares media group with El País): “Greece Shakes Europe”; La Vanguardia (Barcelona, pro-CiU): “Greece Defies Merkel”; El Mundo (centre-right, PP): “Greece Defies The Troika”; the best headline belongs to La Razón (conservative, PP): “Disgreece: Greeks run headlong into the populist abyss”.

[Velasco]

OK, thanks.

Reactions in Spain included political parties, of course. Rajoy sent a message to Tsipras with the usual moderate and institutional tone, hoping that "the electoral result results in the formation of a stable government committed to the European integration project shared by Greece and Spain." Minister of Economy Luis de Guindos stressed that the situation in Spain is "totally different" to the one is suffering Greece and advised the newly elected Greek PM to "stick to its commitments, which are essential for returning Greece to growth". Espernza Aguirre remarked that "Spain has nothing to do with Greece, nor Syriza with Podemos", as well Esteban González Pons insisted on the differences between both countries and introduced ETA in the analysis, saying that Tsipras must be bad for Spaniards if Arnaldo Otegui -leader of Sortu (EHBildu), currently in prison accused of "glorifying terrorism" and belonging to ETA- congratulated Greeks for the outcome. In other words: Syriza = ETA. Socialists, pretty confused on their positioning in Greece, just repeated the mantra: "Greece is not Spain, the PASOK is not the PSOE, Syriza is not Podemos". MEP Juan Francisco López Aguilar said days ago that he would "salute" a victory of Syriza. Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias was understandably exultant and warned: "To be able to pay its debts, Greece needs a different economic plan to the one they’ve had until now. Greece is 2-3% of EU GDP, Spain is 12%. We are not in conditions to be threatened by the Bundesbank". As well Íñigo Errejón tweeted:  "Saqueo politics have already proven unjust and inefficient. The only thing left was for them to seem inevitable. That can be broken today". In a crowded rally in Valencia, Podemos secretary general sent the new slogan: “Tick, tock, tick, tock, the countdown for Rajoy’s government begins on January 31″. Podemos convened a mass rally "for the change" in Madrid, on Jan 31.

At this point I should post something about some uncomfortable issues concerning Pablo Iglesias -a certain Peter Pan complex- and other prominent spokesperson in Podemos, Juan Carlos Monedero -regarding the use of the money he received in exchange for consultancy works for several Latin American governments-.

[Velasco]

Caja Madrid/ Bankia scandal: High Court targets all 78 officials who used 'black cards'

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/28/inenglish/1422443024_651959.html

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Former officials include PP, PSOE and IU members, as well representatives from the UGT and CC.OO unions and employers' associations. "Who is who" in the 'black card' scandal:

http://www.eldiario.es/economia/GRAFICO-gastos-tarjetas-Caja-Madrid_0_309369334.html

The list includes 86 former board members. According to it, the ranking of expenditures with 'black cards' is topped by the former Director General of Caja Madrid Ildefonso Sánchez Barcoj, followed by José Antonio Moral Santín (IU), Ricardo Morado Iglesias and former Chairman Miguel Blesa (PP). 

Bankia was subject of a state bailout, the total amount of the rescue was around 20 billion Euros. The financial black hole of Bankia under the management of Miguel Blesa and Rodrigo Rato was estimated in 13.635 billion of Euros.

In Barcelona, the legal case involving former Catalan premier Jordi Pujol is underway. Pujol (aged 84) claims that his secret fortune came from his father, died in 1980. However, the inheritance is undocumented and the prosecutor sees "gaps and contradictions" in Pujol's story. The judge is trying to determine if the founder of Covergència is lying about the source of the wealth kept by Pujol in an account in Andorra. Several of Pujol's sons are under investigation for suspicious business dealings.

                                                                     

---

Podemos concluded a deal with Ganemos Madrid (a project of coalition involving IU, Equo and other organisations) a to run together in the municipal elections. According to a Ganemos press release, both agreed "a joint appeal to the Madrid citizenry to constitute a civic candidacy of popular unity". The details of the deal will be revealed today in a press conference. Apparently the name of the candidacy is still undecided; it will be neither Podemos nor Ganemos.

However, IU is broken and paralysed in Madrid. IU's regional executive recently adopted a resolution defending the coalition formula, which Podemos rejects. IU is facing a conflict in Madrid between the acting regional executive and the elected candidates Tania Sánchez and Mauricio Valiente. The latter are advocates of a convergence with Podemos and have urged the current regional leadership, already touched by the Caja Madrid scandal, to resign.   

[Velasco]

The joint candidacy between Podemos and Ganemos (a platform created a year ago to rally political organizations and social movements in the left) will constitute an "instrumental party" to run in the municipal elections in Madrid. The name of the party will be decided next month in a "citizen's assembly", according to Ganemos spokeswoman Celia Mayer. The candidates will be elected in a primary election that will take place in March. "In neither case" said "instrumental party" will form a coalition with IU, that is to say, IU must run in the primaries or they will be out of the candidacy.

The IU regional leadership (the 'old guard') intended a deal in which the places in the list were agreed between forces, as well as preserving the name of the organisation. However Mauricio Valiente, the IU elected candidate for the mayoralty, expressed before his will of running in the Ganemos primaries. Valiente attended the press release with Tania Sánchez, who was elected to top the IU list for the Madrid Regional Assembly. The Sánchez-Valiente tandem won the primaries held recently in IU and both are opposed to the 'old guard' which still rules the organisation in Madrid. Tania Sánchez raises suspicion among some people in the 'old guard', partly due to her relationship with Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias.

Tania Sánchez is backed by Alberto Garzón, the national deputy who will be in all likelihood the top IU candidate for the next general election. However, Garzón admitted days ago that she would be removed as candidate if Sánchez is formally accused of alleged wrongdoing during her tenure as councilor in Rivas, a town next to Madrid. PP filed a grievance against her for having allegedly favoured his brother's enterprise to get a contract with the Rivas municipality.

The press release to announce the joint candidacy was attended as well by Podemos municipal secretary Jesús Montero and Inés Sabanés (former IU councilor herself) from Equo.

So far, PSOE and UPyD have nominated candidates for the mayoralty of Madrid. Regional deputy and economist Antonio Miguel Carmona will top the PSOE list, whereas UPyD nominated its current municipal spokesman David Ortega. The PP candidate will depend on the decision of Mariano Rajoy.

[Velasco]

The IU's national executive held an extraordinary meeting yesterday, in order to deal with the crisis of the organisation in Madrid. As said in the previous post, IU in Madrid is divided between the supporters of the regional executive and those of Tania Sánchez -candidate elect for the next regional election-. It was discused a procedure of expulsion against municipal and regional spokesmen, Ángel Pérez and Gegorio Gordo. The motivation of such procedure is that both performed "political responsibilities" in the past 20 years, when IU participated in the distribution of positions in Caja Madrid (later merged into Bankia). Ángel Pérez and Gregorio Gordo held the position of regional coordinator during that period. Despite Alberto Garzón required an immediate expulsion, national leader Cayo Lara submitted a more moderate resolution which consists in "disowning politically" Pérez and Gordo and opening a file against both. To make things more complex, it's questionable that the IU national executive is competent to take disciplinary measures against the regional leadership, because IU in Madrid has a separate legal personality.   

Meanwhile, the Podemos "March for Change" takes place today. Podemos expects to flood the centre of Madrid, in order to demonstrate its public support. The March will end at Plaza del Sol, an emblematic place for the indignados movement. Front de Gauche's Jean Luc Melenchon, anti-eviction activist and Guanyem spokeswoman Ada Colau and several member of the PSOE's leftist faction have confirmed their attendance. Podemos informed that local círculos and supporters have chartered 260 buses from several places across Spain. Around 100 people offered their cars to travel to Madrid and others living in the city offered their homes.

Syriza's victory in Greece has given a boost to the Spanish party but, on the other hand, the organisation feels that it's under "scrutiny" and politically motivated attacks.

Juan Carlos Monedero, one of the most notorious leaders of Podemos, has been criticised after an online paper revealed that he billed 425,000 Euros in his own enterprise. That money was received in exchange for consultancy works -he advised several Latin American countries (Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua, among others) on the creation of a single currency. Monedero's enterprise was registered in Spain and paid taxes for that money, although some people say that he should have paid a share to the Complutense University, where he is professor. The money was used in financing La Tuerka, a political show produced by Pablo Iglesias and broadcasted by local TVs.

In the news, PP and PSOE seek to finalise an anti-terrorist agreement. PSOE accepts reluctantly PP's reintroduction of life sentences to save cross-party deal:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/30/inenglish/1422640052_611838.html

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[Velasco]

Plaza del Sol yesterday. The Podemos "March for Change" gathered between 100k (according to municipal police) and 300k (according to organisation) people. El País estimated 153k. In any case, this is the starting point of the Podemos campaign. "This is the year of change", said Pablo Iglesias.

Andalusia: Regional elections. Sigma Dos/El Mundo

PSOE 34.7%, PP 30.2%, Podemos 15.6%, IU 8.2%, UPyD 3.5%, C's 3.4%, Others 4.4%

Sample: 1800. Fieldwork: Jan 26-29.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez called for "unity, strength and go out to win" in the next elections. PSOE held a conference of territorial leaders past weekend, marked by the absence of Andalusian premier Susana Díaz, affected by a strong influenza (given her state of pregnancy, doctors discouraged her to take medication). Pedro Sánchez vindicated PSOE as the only alternative to PP: socialists are the "serious left" and the the ones whom fear PP. The socialist leader avoided mentioning Podemos, but accused them of being fuelled by disenchantment: "Spain cannot stand those whom seek recovery for the more privileged 10%, nor those whom fish in the troubled waters of disenchantment". Later, Sánchez picked out the main lines of his project of "safe change" that will create opportunities for Spaniards: "No more mass redundancies in companies with profits. No more rescued banks denying credit for self-employed workers. No more vulture funds evicting poor families (the Madrid Council sold social housing to Goldman Sachs and other funds, in order to balance the cash; families are subject of real estate mobbing). No more exorbitant salaries in companies that pay misery salaries to their employees". Programme highlights will be the creation of funds of active employment policies and to facilitate the return of economic expatriates; and fighting evictions by creating a network of social rented housing or negotiating a "debt restructuring" between the threatened families and the banks.

Jean Luc Mélenchon was in Madrid to attend the Podemos "March for Change". Previously he met with Alberto Garzón from IU. "The left is dead if it doesn't convince the middle class"


Two polls depicting parallel realities.

Simple Lógica:

Podemos 30.8%, PP 24.5%, PSOE 18.6%, UPyD 6.4%, C's 5.8%, IU 4.6%.

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop15001-intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Celeste-Tel / El Diario

PP 31.1%, PSOE 23.8%, Podemos 20.9%, IU 4.7%, C's 4.5%, UPyD 2.7%

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/PP-levemente-aspiraciones-electorales-consolida_0_352065037.html

[Velasco]

Methodological differences?

Sure. I have reasons to believe that polls are going to be increasingly unreliable. Either for the volatility of the electorate and the difficulty of making predictions in an unprecedented scenario, or maybe because fear is installed among certain people and pollsters might be tempted to adjust their methods. Actually, I don't know.

Edit / on the reliability of pollsters:

There is consensus in regarding the CIS polls as the best in collecting raw data, given the size of the samples and the professionalism in which they are conducted. However, the CIS is not necessarily the best in vote estimation. As for the latter, right now I tend to trust more in Invymark, MyWord or GESOP, based on their level of success in the past EP elections and my subjective perception. It's my understanding that NCReport, GAD3, Celeste-Tel, Metroscopia and other pollsters are quite unreliable. I'd say Sigma Dos is professional, but it has certain anti-PSOE bias (just the opposite to Metroscopia).

[Velasco]

I would dismiss the idea of a "Popular Front" of any kind. The general election can place PSOE in the situation of being the kingmaker. In spite of themselves, they'll have to make a decision. Maybe they would take the easy way, allowing a PP minority government but not taking part in an electorally suicidal "Grosse Koalition".

[Velasco]

I don't see it. Imagine an scenario in which PP comes first, Podemos second and PSOE third. It seems to me that triggering a new election might have the consequence of PSOE suffering a loss of voters to Podemos, given the predictable polarisation of the electorate. I think it'd be a bad strategy on the part of the Spanish socialists.

If you have to trust Pedro Sánchez, the only workable solution for him is a PSOE minority government (I guess propped up by Podemos or PP, depending on issues). On the other hand, there's no tradition in Spain of coalition governments at national level, although it exists at regional and local levels. In all likelihood, we'll see a wide range of coalition deals or governability pacts in regions and municipalities. It's complicated to make predictions at this moment.

Under our current electoral system, a workable PP minority would need getting around 34% of the vote, providing that Podemos+PSOE+IU are below 44%. Someone made the calculation here:

http://politikon.es/2014/09/03/dhondt-vota-podemos/

Right now, PP is polling at best around 30% (27% on average). Podemos is around 25% on average, PSOE at 21% and IU slightly below the 5% line. If you look at the graph above, with those percentages the intersection of X and Y axes falls in the red colour.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_election,_2015#Election_polling

[Velasco]

The constitution says that the king has "arbitral" and "moderating" functions, attached to the character of "invariable neutrality" consubstantial with his figure. The limits of his moderating functions are open to interpretation, as you can read in the last paragraphs quoted below. I guess that Felipe VI could mediate in the formation of a 'technocratic' government at the request of PP and PSOE.

http://www.congreso.es/consti/constitucion/indice/sinopsis/sinopsis.jsp?art=62&tipo=2

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On a side note, there's another Felipe who advocates for a PP-PSOE coalition if it's needed "for the good of the country". Former PM Felipe González, to be precise.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2014/05/12/actualidad/1399875819_660624.html

[Velasco]

A question worth asking is whether Podemos can sustain the support they're currently registering in the polls; those that rise quickly can fall just as fast.

(though, against that, it can be pointed out that the government is unpopular and that the PSOE doesn't seem capable of articulating whatever the hell it is they stand for these days).

Indeed. The Podemos people is aware that sustaining the level of support they currently enjoy is not going to be easy. This is going to be a long and tough year for them, too. Their first concern is that polls in Andalusia are not as favourable for them as they are in other regions. They need a good result there to have chances in a general election. Also, the 'two souls' inside Podemos are still struggling to reach a deal in Andalusia. On the other hand, I think the Podemos support is not going to fall abruptly. The reason is that it's sustained in a sociological undercurrent, a general dissatisfaction with the inefficient and corrupt political and economical elites. Podemos has reached its current status because they have been able to connect with that mood, as well as they represent a factor of hope and illusion for many people. As long as the mainstream parties (PP and PSOE) continue to be incapable of reforming themselves, as well as to reform a system running out of steam, I think Podemos is here to stay.

[Velasco]

Some notes on the Andalusian elections.

- According to Infolibre, the two main factions inside Podemos - the one led by MEP Teresa Rodríguez and the another led by Sergio Pascual, close to the Pablo Iglesias' team- have reached some kind of draft agreement to run a single list of candidates. Apparently Teresa Rodríguez is going to be the top candidate, although union leader Diego Cañamero (SAT) will be excluded at the request of the Sergio Pascual faction.

Cañamero was previously in IU as member of the CUT party, led by the Marinaleda mayor Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo. He left in December with other CUT members, because of a strong disagreement with the PSOE-IU coalition government. Later they joined Podemos and it was rumoured that all the CUT would follow, including Sánchez Gordillo. The controversial mayor of Marinaleda stated months ago feeling much more closer to Podemos than IU. Diego Cañamero and his partners are close to Teresa Rodríguez and he was mentioned as a possible top candidate.

Days ago Luis Alegre, who is member of the Podemos' national executive, said in an interview that Andalusia was not a region in which they have chances of winning. Alegre rectified later that statement, which didn't make Teresa Rodríguez happy for obvious reasons. Previously Alegre said that Podemos would not facilitate a PP government, as well as he conditioned possible dealings with PSOE to an "implacable commitment" against corruption.

- PP regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno offered Susana Díaz a "Grand Coalition" or some kind of governability pact, in order to prevent that Podemos governs ("it'd be a chaos", he said). The offer looks like a poisoned sweet for the socialists.

- Susana Díaz, on her part, rejected deals with PP and Podemos. PP is discarded because she doesn't want dealings with the party which has caused "a lot harm to the people". Podemos because she won't have dealings with "whom insult us".

- Finally, the former deputy premier Diego Valderas (IU) says that "the new electoral map will take us to be in a territory of permanent dialog with Susana Díaz and PSOE", showing that the "political anger" with Susana Díaz could go down in history. I ignore what's the opinion of the new regional coordinator Antonio Maíllo.


The CIS January survey will be released soon. Apparently not good news for PSOE at national level. The last survey was in October and the socialists were still in second place.

[Velasco]

CIS, January 2015: