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February 18, 2019, 03:16:46 pm
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tack50
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« Reply #325 on: December 22, 2018, 12:49:13 pm »

Apparently PP and Cs have reached a deal in Andalucia. However, that deal also apparently excluded Vox, who is now claiming that they will vote against their deal.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/PP-Cs-impuestos-Gobierno-plataforma_0_848665559.html

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-excluir-PSOE-PP-Ciudadanos-Gobierno_0_848665672.html

If that happens, a 2 month countdown from the investiture vote will start. If there's no premier by then there will be a 2nd regional election (probably some time around April?), just like in 2015-2016 but at a regional scale.
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« Reply #326 on: December 26, 2018, 06:40:09 pm »

While it's not rare to find polls for local elections on certain municipalities, it is indeed rare to find polls for local elections nationally. However ABC seems to have done one. Here are its results

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-ciudadanos-y-superan-cuatro-puntos-izquierda-elecciones-municipales-201812262307_noticia.html

Popular vote:



Councillors in the 52 provincial capitals



Chances of a PP+Cs+Vox majority by provincial capital



About the last two, they are mostly based on an "even swing" model from 2015 so they can and will be inaccurate, particularly in cases of small towns with popular left wing incumbents.

If we give the left every town in brown or red, that would be 20 provincial capitals. However, a bad sign would be that of those 20 provincial capitals, a whopping 14 would be located in places with some sort of nationalist or regionalist movement, where the left+regional right basically run up the score (Galicia, Basque Country, Navarra, Catalonia, Canary Islands)

And of the few outside those regions, none of the 6 would be particularly large towns, with only Cádiz being above 100 000 people.

As for the popular vote, everything seems low but that's because of local parties. The PP-PSOE difference seems in line with most local elections thus far, all elections since 1999 have ended in virtual ties except for 2011.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2018, 06:48:54 pm by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #327 on: December 27, 2018, 08:06:14 am »

Today was the first session of the newly elected parliament of Andalucia. There had been a lot of negotiations to get the "parliament table" (which basically regulates parliamentary procedures and what gets and doesn't get a vote).

In the end there was a deal orchestrated by Cs so everyone got at least 1 seat (there are 7). However, AA dropped out of the deal last minute in order to "not soften the image of the far right".

In the end, though a PP-Cs-Vox deal Marta Bosquet (Cs) was elected parliament president (first Cs parliament president), and it's expected that eventually there will be a right wing deal.

The full composition of the "parliament table" ended up as:

2 PSOE
2 PP
2 Cs
1 Vox

https://www.elmundo.es/andalucia/2018/12/27/5c24b010fdddff18328b469b.html

So there's a right wing majority, a PP-Cs majority and a PSOE-Cs majority. IMO this distribution is unfair, Cs should have 1 less member and AA one more. But then again that's what AA gets for dropping out I guess. Then again it seems that if AA hadn't dropped out maybe their seat would come from PSOE and not Cs so maybe it wasn't a bad idea after all

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« Reply #328 on: December 28, 2018, 06:51:55 am »

For what is worth, you could argue that the "Jose María Ruiz Mateos Electoral Group" was also sort of a far right party, they ran on "Spain for the Spanish, jobs for everybody" and had an anti-EU campaign of sorts (back in the 80s and 90s!)

https://www.lasexta.com/programas/el-objetivo/noticias/asi-era-el-populismo-de-ruiz-mateos-que-me-voteis-leches-a-ver-si-os-enterais_20161120583226140cf24c3ff69be60c.html

Ruiz Mateos was somewhat more popular than Blas Piñar as well.

Though I think Ruiz Mateos wasn't really far right and more of just a pure populist protest vote against Felipe González and the establishment. Same with Jesus Gil's GIL later on (who never ran on far right positions I think)

Of course, Vox is very different from all of those. I can't really think of any comparisons that would come without a flaw.

Also, while Fuerza Nueva was the first to get seats in a Spanish parliament, Vox is still technically the first to get seats in a regional assembly, as by the time of the first regional elections (1983) Fuerza Nueva was already dead.

Closest thing to the far right getting seats in a regional assembly thus far was Plataforma x Catalunya in 2010, who got 2.5% of the vote and would have needed 3% to get in. PxC actually had some sucess in local elections, but nothing beyond that, and when the secessionist movement started they quickly lost steam as people started voting based on that and not on immigration
« Last Edit: December 28, 2018, 09:12:31 am by tack50 »Logged
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« Reply #329 on: December 29, 2018, 08:17:24 am »

As for Gil, in Ceuta Vox is second by a recent poll with ~20% support. Ceuta was a Gil stronghold - they won the election in 1999.

Yeah, GIL was very strong for some bizarre reason in the 2 autonomous cities. The 2000 general election is actually an even better example with GIL being second with around 25% of the vote even though they polled at 0.35% nationally!

I wouldn't be too surprised if Vox managed to win the Ceuta or Melilla mayor-premiership or win the general elections there, particularly if PP collapses for some reason. I still think it should be strong enough for a plurality win though (remember Ceuta and Melilla have only 1 seat each)
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« Reply #330 on: January 01, 2019, 07:02:42 pm »

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

Worth noting that that poll gave a virtual tie in terms of seats between UP and Vox (45-47 for UP; 43-45 for Vox)

That seems odd (I don't think UP's vote is that inefficient, they should be on the low 50s IMO)

Also, that poll actually placed Vox in 1st place in the 2 cities in North Africa: Ceuta and Melilla! That does seem like a possibility as they are huge right wing stronholds where Vox's message will have a huge public but still
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« Reply #331 on: January 01, 2019, 07:07:19 pm »

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

Actually, I don't think there will be an ungovernability crisis with these results. My guess for the next government formation is:

PSOE+Cs gets a majority dependent o no one, or at worst the tiny Canarian Coalition: PSOE+Cs government gets formed

If not, if PP+Cs+Vox has a majority, a PP+Cs coalition government is formed, with outside support from Vox

If neither of those has a majority, but somehow PSOE+UP has one (with the help of "pragmatic" nationalists, ie CC, PNV, Compromís, etc) then a PSOE+UP government gets formed

If none of those options has a majority (ie everything depends on the Catalan nationalists), then we indeed have a governability problem and we will have a 2nd election (or maybe a very weak PSOE minority government like the current one)

Right now, my chances would be:

55%: Some sort of PP+Cs+Vox government
30%: Some sort of PSOE+Cs government
10%: Governability crisis / New elections
5: Some sort of PSOE+UP or PSOE minority government
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« Reply #332 on: January 02, 2019, 02:54:10 pm »

I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?

Actually, I think they've been on talks with both ECR and ENF. I'd say they eventually join ECR and not ENF, but I could be wrong
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« Reply #333 on: January 03, 2019, 06:30:39 am »

To be honest, of all the things negotiations could get stuck on, I'm surprised it's gender violence of all things! I'd have expected stuff like centralization and closing down the regional TV broadcaster (Canal Sur) to be much bigger hurdles

Remember Cs originally had a similar position to Vox on this (back in 2015 they wanted to repeal the old gender violence law and replace it with an "family violence" law). And PP has also been critical of this in recient days. Then again most proposals on the matter pass unanimously (including the 2004 gender violence act) but still, I never expected this to be the biggest hurdle.
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« Reply #334 on: January 03, 2019, 01:26:53 pm »

There isn't much data about this poll (does seem to be legit though), but if it's true, I'd be very worried about 2019:

La Nueva España for Asturias regional elections



https://asturias24horas.com/derecha-e-izquierda-muy-ajustadas/

By coalition:

PSOE-Podemos-IU: 50.0%
PP-Cs-Foro-Vox: 47.6%
PSOE-Cs: 37.7%

Seems like Foro Asturias (a PP split formerly led by Francisco Álvarez Cascos, development minister under Aznar) is dead in the long run. They might barely survive 2019, but they should really think about rejoining PP (or, considering Foro was originally to the right of PP, join Vox instead).

Vox of course quite high up and Podemos collapses. PP down, but less than expected. Cs rises quite a bit, but not that much, and is only a point above Vox! IU surprisingly stagnant, though I wonder how the Actua thing will work out in the end (IU-Asturias has traditionally been the most anti-Podemos branch, but their leader, Gaspar Llamazares, has split from IU and formed a new party).

As for government formation, the 2 blocks are close while the centrist block is very far from a majority. Asturias actually uses 3 constituencies and I can't find a seat allocation so we just have the numbers to work with (though it shouldn't affect the results that much in Asturias' case, but in other regions it would)

I'd rate Asturias as lean PSOE for now. It's probably one of the very few regions where they are still favoured after the Vox earthquake. However it's definitely not safe and I wouldn't be too surprised if PP ruled here as well.
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« Reply #335 on: January 07, 2019, 11:52:45 am »

Tonight we will get a proper poll (or maybe even 2!). However, today there was a part of the poll released, which in my opinion is very interesting.

What should be the government's response to the Catalan problem?

39%: Apply article 155 again
20%: Propose a new statute of autonomy
14%: Keep talking but without concessions
9%: Do a referendum
18%: Undecided

Party crosstabs



In general, PSOE and Podemos are very split while PP, Cs and Vox are mostly unified on "155 4ever!"
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« Reply #336 on: January 09, 2019, 06:00:20 pm »

News in Andalucia: PP and Vox have finally reached an agrement.

This means that Vox will finally vote in favour of Juanma Moreno (PP) as premier of the region.

Interestingly, there has still not been a Vox-Cs direct negotiation, but instead 2 parallel negotiations: PP-Cs to form a coalition government, then PP-Vox (without Cs) to get their support.

In any case, barring a major upset PP will finally oust PSOE of this region.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/09/spanish-conservatives-sign-deal-far-right-vox-party-govern-andalusia/
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« Reply #337 on: January 16, 2019, 10:50:21 am »

I'm not sure about its accuracy (I get the idea this 'panel' is based on on opinions, or something), but electomania is not a poll. Just saying.

On the other hand, the trend is clear. Spain seems to be leaning to the right and there is an extremist monentum. As long as the focus is on identity politics (Catalonia, immigration, whatever) the right wins. The only hope for the left is to turn the focus to social policies (raise of minimum wage, for instance) or to mobilize its base on the fear to the hard right. Let's see what happens on March 8, the Women's Day. Feminism is going to be one of the main bulwarks against the reactionaries. There were some demonstrations across Spain yesterday, protesting against the backward of women's rights advocated by Vox. I'm not sure about the best way to tackle the far right menace, but it's important that the voice of decent people is heard. Anyway I see pointless protesting against the presence of the far right in parliament (another question is protecting against its agenda), since extremists won seats because people voted for them. It'd be better to fight them with facts and arguments and turning out to vote.

The prospect of a right wing nationalist government propped up by Vox scares me. I'm deeply concerned about the future of my country under the right-wing tripartite. Certainly I will go to vote for Sánchez or the Left, even if they disappoint me.

For what's worth, even though electomanía is far from a traditional pollster, they were one of the most accurate pollster for the Andalusian elections which everyone got wrong.

They've certainly proven themselves IMO, even if their methodology might be somewhat questionable. Then again they performed polls after the ban, which allowed them to register the last minute Vox surge.

As for everything else yes, the left is heading towards certain defeat, somewhere between the scale of 2000 and 2011. The only silver lining is that Cs might prop up some conservative PSOE premiers (Fernández Vara of Extremadura and García Page of Castille-La Mancha easily come to mind) even if there's a right wing majority and that the right is divided, which hurts it overall, keep in mind that if the right was united under one party (as in the old 2 party system days) 50% would set a new record for a single party, probably beating González's record of 202 seats and 48%; and maybe giving them a 3/5 constitutional majority.

Meanwhile most seat allocations give them "only" around 180-185 seats, which is an overall majority but very far from a 3/5 majority (210). Some even put them outside a majority!

As for the reaction, I don't think feminism will be the only (or even the best IMO) reaction. Other parts of Vox's platform are more controversial for me, like their anti EU stance (Spain is still very much pro EU I think and hope) or their hate for autonomous communities (though there's certainly a lot of people who do want them gone)

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« Reply #338 on: January 16, 2019, 06:39:11 pm »

or their hate for autonomous communities (though there's certainly a lot of people who do want them gone)

Do elaborate.

Well, Spain while it's not a fully federalized country it does have a very high level of devolution, with its 17 autonomous communities acting as sort of federal entities but not quite.

One of Vox's star proposals is to basically abolish this and make Spain a centralized country, like say France or England. To quote them directly

Quote
Transform the autonomous State into a unitary State that promotes equality and solidarity instead of privileges and division. A single government and a single parliament for all of Spain. As a previous step: immediate return to the State of Education, Health, Security and Justice limiting as much as possible the regional legislative capacity.

In all fairness, getting rid of autonomous communities as Vox proposes, or even limiting their powers in many cases requires either:

a) A constitutional reform. Abolishing them entirely actually requires the "severe" procedure and not the standard one, it's one of the more protected parts of the constitution

b) The autonomous communities themselves voluntarily relinquishing power. This requires regional supermajorities in most cases (usually 3/5 or 2/3) as it requires reforming (or more precisely, repealing I guess) the "statute of autonomy", sort of its "state constitution". Then the national Congress has to ratify said reform (by an overall majority). Finally in some cases a referendum is required.

So it's probably not happening any time soon.

It does poll fairly well though. According to CIS (a thrash pollster now, but they ask this question every month) 21% of Spaniards support abolishing autonomous communities completely while a further 10% wants their competences cut down.

Worth noting that 13% want more competences (not less) and 11% wants autonomous communities to have the right of self-determination so it's a polarizing issue. Finally 39% want to keep them as they are now and 7% is undecided.

Then again considering this is CIS we are talking about, though the numbers do seem plausible overall.
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« Reply #339 on: January 21, 2019, 08:11:13 am »

El Español released a rare "estimation" for the Spanish Senate



If wondering, the Senate is mostly elected through limited block voting, with a small appointed part.

In each of the 48 provinces in the Spanish mainland, 4 candidates are elected, with voters getting 3 votes (the most common arrangement is thus 3 for the winner-1 for the runner-up)

In the "major islands" of Gran Canaria, Tenerife and Mallorca, 3 candidates are elected, with voters getting 2 votes (thus the most common arrangement is 2 for the winner-1 for the runner-up)

In the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, 2 candidates are elected, with voters getting 2 votes (so, FPTP but with more candidates)

In the "minor islands" of La Palma, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, Menorca and Ibiza-Formentera (who form a single constituency); 1 candidate is elected with voters getting 1 vote (so, standard FPTP)

Finally, after each regional election, each autonomous community appoints 1 senator, plus another senator for every 1 million people, in a proportional manner. This means that Vox now has 1 senator appointed for Andalucia. Since a majority of the appointed senators will be elected in May 2019 they didn't include the appointed senators.

In any case, it seems PP will very much lose its majority, with PSOE becoming the largest party in the Senate for the first time since 1995! (when they lost their plurality after the 1995 regional elections)

The Senate map can and will change a lot based on very minor vote changes so I'd take it as just a curiosity, I could see anything from a huge PSOE majority to a hung Senate, depending on the vote splitting.

In any case the Spanish Senate is very weak as it can only delay laws for about 1 month. It does have 2 places where it's important: Constitutional ammendments and most importantly, activating article 155 in Catalonia (the direct rule article), which requires Senate approval. So in theory under this estimation, PSOE could block article 155 if they feel it's unjustified.

As for the estimation itself, it seems about right, though I will say that there are 2 seats missing, one for CC in El Hierro and one for ASG (small local party, PSOE split) in La Gomera. Both should be safe seats for each.
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« Reply #340 on: January 21, 2019, 09:13:11 am »

Also, the newest chapter in the Podemos splitting saga: Errejón has resigned his seat.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/01/21/actualidad/1548078901_665589.html

Doesn't change much, and he will apparently remain a Podemos member (unless he is expelled I guess).
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« Reply #341 on: January 27, 2019, 05:58:30 pm »

RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)



Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.

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« Reply #342 on: January 27, 2019, 07:58:16 pm »

Regarding the other polls:

Hamalgama-Ágora Integral is a pollster most commonly used by the regional Canarian newspapers La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife (in fact it was published in these newspapers). They rarely publish polls and when they do it's almost always for regional elections. So I'm surprised to see them make a national poll

As for the seat allocation in the Público poll, I don't think it's that weird. The PSOE-PP gap there is 0.8%, with a 9 seat gap. For comparison in 1996 PP beat PSOE by 1.2% and got a larger gap of 15 seats. Seems ok with me.



More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

I'm very skeptical that the Catalans would prop up Sánchez again. If they don't even support his budget, why would they support his government?

The only way for Sánchez to stay in power is with a PSOE+Cs deal (assuming Cs is even willing to do that, though they aren't allergic to supporting PSOE, they are certainly not a fan of Sánchez)

Of all the polls none really give PSOE any chance of forming a government.
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« Reply #343 on: January 28, 2019, 07:39:48 am »

Yeah, an interesting thing is the relation between turnout and left wing votes.

The Spanish left has only won once with turnout below 70% (in 1989, with 69.9% turnout; I'm not counting 2016 as a win).

I do think PSOE can take back a lot of Podemos voters if there's a true collapse though. In Catalonia/Basque Country they will indeed to go Bildu or ERC for the most part, but in the rest of the country I can easily see most Podemos voters going to PSOE again.

Remember that back in 2008 pretty much all the groups you mentioned were firm PSOE voters. Granted that was at the peak of the 2 party system, but I'm not sure if turnout can get much lower either. Remember 2016 had the lowest turnout in Spanish history already.

Similarly, the Andalusian election technically did not see record breaking low turnout either, 1990 had lower turnout (and PSOE won a majority anyways).
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« Reply #344 on: January 29, 2019, 10:23:45 am »

Uphill battle is putting it lightly IMO. Madrid is close to being a lost cause (a shame, Carmena is genuinely popular and probably the best Podemos mayor, but Madrid is just too conservative). 

The only way for Carmena to be reelected is if Cs, PP and Vox fail to reach an agreement, in that case she automatically becomes mayor 2 months after the election or something like that. But barring a very weak minority government or something weird like Cs supporting Carmena I don't think she survives.

I do agree Carmena is the only hope (even if it's a very faint one). Also, keep in mind that PSOE in Madrid city has pretty much disappeared, it wouldn't be unthinkable (although it's unlikely) that PSOE falls below the 5% threshold.

Remember we are headed for a right wing landslide (if we believe polling); somewhere between the scale of 2000 and 2011. I don't know how many mayors are hopless causes but for reference we could look at the 2011 defeat as a worst case scenario:

Back in 2011 out of the 104 municipalities that are provincial capitals or have a population over 75000; the left held 22 for PSOE; 1 for Bildu, 1 for BNG and 1 for a tiny, probably local party (the Greens in Orihuela); for a total of 25 left wing mayors.

Currently out of the 107 muncipalities with the same specifications, the left holds 44 for PSOE, 7 for Podemos, 3 for IU, 1-2 for a tiny or local parties (the Greens in Torrevieja and maybe MCC in Cartagena), 1 for ERC, 1 for NCa, 1 for BNG, 1 for Compromís, 1 for Bildu for a total of 60-61 left wing mayors.

So I'd say that around 15 big city mayors will lose. And the most likely ones are the ones that have tiny majorities to begin with (like Carmena)

Anyways the poll seems good, it's not an internal and the result is believable but with a small sample and a big margin of error.
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« Reply #345 on: February 03, 2019, 08:16:08 am »

Regarding the polls yeah, forget about the CIS poll, it's totally rigged. Probably a terrible decision on Sánchez's part.

In any case, they all just confirm what we knew. At the national level PSOE is favoured to be the largest party but the right will probably get a majority so who cares. The big question is whether PSOE+Cs is possible or not. Right now it seems they will fail but maybe they'll rise in the future?

Same for the Madrid poll except there's a 3 way tie for first there. In any case I rate Madrid Lean Cs as of now, though I guess I should move it to a PP-Cs tossup
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« Reply #346 on: February 03, 2019, 08:52:31 am »

If both were possible, I think Cs would go with PSOE+Cs, even if Sánchez remained as PM. They might not like it, but I don't think they will have enough strength to take him down.

In fact I wonder if both are possible if PNV would back PSOE+Cs as a "lesser of 2 evils" and/or if UPN (a Navarra unionist party) would back it, splitting from PP

I'd argue Sánchez's biggest threat to him losing power when he could remain would be an internal party coup. I guess that will depend on how the party does after the regional elections.
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« Reply #347 on: February 10, 2019, 07:58:07 am »

Yes, they look very grim. The final nail in the coffin will happen this Wednesday, when the budget is rejected by Congress.

After that who knows. Sánchez might try to simply rule by decrees, there's no alternative majority to oust him. However his rule by decree would become very unpopular very fast I think.

On the other hand elections in May are also a bad option and most PSOE figures reject them in order not to contaminate local elections with national ones. However it might also increase turnout.

In any case, there will be an election this year, the question is if it will happen in May on a "Mega Sunday", or after the Summer. (or less likely in another date, like say June or April)
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« Reply #348 on: February 10, 2019, 08:31:47 am »

Keep in mind that Sánchez has already been ruling by decree for the most part, his government has been extremely ineffective.

The Spanish government does have the right to unilaterally pass decrees, though they must go to Congress after 1 month at most to be accepted or retracted.

And Congress forcing decree retragting is extremely rare. Since 1977 it has happened only 4 times (though 2 have been on this parliamentary term alone).

It would be unpopular, sets a bad precedent and might offer legal challenges, but rule by decree is an option. It's not like the opposition could pass a no confidence vote either (PP+Cs are short by 7; they could get CC's lonely MP, but they still need 6 more and there are no more real viable partners)

I do think Sánchez will eventually call an election for October at the latest, but that's still 8 months from now.

And the election won't be necesarily bad for PSOE itself, they are looking at being the largest party (narrowly) and rising slightly above their dysmal 2016 results. The problem is for the left at large, and especially for Podemos.  A PP-Cs-Vox majority looks almost certain, and even if it didn't add up the most likely result would be a repeat election, not another minority Sánchez government.
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« Reply #349 on: February 11, 2019, 08:05:04 am »

Speaking of elections, PM Sánchez has threatened the secessionists with a snap election for the 14th of April if they refuse to pass his budget.

If he were to call it, he would call it some time next week (by law there have to be 54 days between an election being called and the actual election date).

I don't think the secessionists will cave, so let's see if the threat actually materializes or not. There's also the possibility of a Super Sunday but the PSOE leadership doesn't want that.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/02/11/5c615eeefdddffd78c8b45de.html
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