Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 23, 2020, 02:44:57 am
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Stuck with Sanders)
  Spanish elections and politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 12 13 14 [15] 16 17 18 19 20 ... 93 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 292336 times)
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #350 on: July 30, 2015, 12:35:08 pm »

Euskobarómetro poll for the Basque Country (election scheduled next year):


PNV 33.5%, EH Bildu 23.1%, Podemos 15.1%, PSE-EE / PSOE 14.1%, PP 8.1%, Others  5.7%

http://www.ehu.eus/documents/1457190/4342183/Estimacion_Mayo15.pdf


Journalist Antonio Baños has been elected to top the CUP-Crida Constituent list in the next Catalan elections. Baños is not a CUP activist, he's member of an independentist association called Súmate ("Join") comprised by Spanish-speaking people. The newly elected candidate promises three things: "Win", "Disobey" and "Build". Baños explained that they will disobey "to define the breaking point with the Spanish state and all the powers that have taken us under their force" and "to fight the fascism, racism and xenophobia that have came onto the campaign". He regrets the appointment of Xavier García Albiol as PP candidate, whom the CUP will fight "from the street". He also stated that they will "rebuild capitalist schemes" and "the connection between economy and production". "We will build the Països Catalans (Catalan Countries)", stressed Baños.

For sure Xavier García Albiol will introduce a factor of further polarisation in the Catalan campaign. I don't know if his appointment will succeed in halting the vote drain between PP and C's. On the one hand, Albiol is the PP politician in Catalonia with higher level of knowledge and he's the kind of xenophobe populist that performs well in the face-to-face. PP might be seeking former PxC voters in metropolitan Barcelona, a type prone to abstain in regional elections. On the other hand, the xenophobic drive of the PP in the local campaign in Catalonia worked badly outside Badalona. 
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #351 on: August 01, 2015, 02:54:49 am »
« Edited: August 01, 2015, 03:02:34 am by Velasco »

Mr Mariano Rajoy reviews his tenure and sends a message to Catalan secessionists.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/31/inenglish/1438352284_257740.html

"Catalonia will never be independent in any way"

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Spain has a bright economic future, providing that Spaniards make the correct choice:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

But corruption stands in the way:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Obviously the message of complacency conveyed by Mariano Rajoy has been challenged by opposition leaders. Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) says that Rajoy is unable to provide "a response to the crisis" and is "accomplice of corruption", as well "the best ally of Artur Mas" because of his "immobilism" and inability to dialogue. Regarding to that, Catalan premier Artur Mas said that Rajoy has been unable to seat at a table to discuss the "democratic aspirations of the Catalan people". Podemos spokepersons stated that Rajoy sketched "an unreal country". Alberto Garzón (IU) said that improving of macroeconomic indicators is due to the "expansionary" measures implemented by Draghi and the ECB, as well considered Rajoy's balance "pure fantasy" stressing that "we are a country in social emergency that needs policies to create employment". Albert Rivera (C's) considers that Rajoy heads a worn out government lacking of a project for the future, saying that is inappropriate talking about a "triumphal" end of term given "the worrying situation of families and  self-employed workers", "middle class has been fractured and broken" during his tenure and there's the highest level of inequality of the present democratic period. As for the Catalonia, Rivera accused PP and PSOE of neglecting the region: "PP left Catalonia to the Pujol clan and Zapatero to (former ERC leader) Carod Rovira". Rivera refused to comment an offer made by PP candidate Xavier García Albiol, who stated to be "open" to reach governance pacts with C's and other anti-separatist parties after the Catalan elections. In other news, CSP candidate Lluis Rabell stated that if Catalonia secedes without the "necessary complicity" it would not be better treated than Greece by the EU. Rabell considers that if the Catalan elections are the prelude of political changes in Spain, "a window of opportunities" would be open to celebrate the Catalan referendum.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #352 on: August 04, 2015, 09:22:28 am »

Artur Mas calls elections in Catalonia:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/08/03/inenglish/1438609838_472058.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #353 on: August 05, 2015, 05:46:09 am »

CIS July survey released today (April survey in brackets):

PP 28.2% (25.6%), PSOE 24.9% (24.3%), Podemos 15.7% (16.5%), C's 11.1% (13.8%), IU 3.7% (4.8%)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3104mar_A.pdf
Logged
Simfan34
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,747
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #354 on: August 06, 2015, 10:09:55 am »

I thought Unio was anti-independence, hence why they split with the CDC and broke up CiU?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #355 on: August 06, 2015, 01:41:08 pm »

I thought Unio was anti-independence, hence why they split with the CDC and broke up CiU?

Unió and CDC parted ways because the latter turned to pro-independence stances in the last years, while the UDC stands where CiU used to be traditionally. Tension between both coalition partners comes from the beginning of the independence drive, approx in 2010. UDC tried to keep the coalition with CDC because it's a minor party with little electoral chances. However, plans for an unilateral declaration of independence were too much for UDC. Also, Artur Mas and the CDC radicalised senior staff and grassroots wanted to get rid of their partners. Duran i Lleida et alii are considered "traitors" by many people in Convergència. On the other hand, corruption affairs around CiU played a role, especially the Jordi Pujol scandal. Artur Mas desired to refund or reconvert his party, founded by Pujol, whose HQs are currently seized by judiciary. There's a pro-independence faction in UDC that splitted with the breaking up of CiU; now they are called Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and joined the Together for Yes alliance.  
Logged
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,849
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #356 on: August 06, 2015, 01:49:15 pm »

Whatever happened to Catalan Solidarity for Independence?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #357 on: August 06, 2015, 03:33:47 pm »

Whatever happened to Catalan Solidarity for Independence?

That party is virtually disappeared, since its main leaders -namely Jordi Laporta and Alfons López Tena- quitted politics. Anyway, the party supports the Together for Yes alliance. According to the SI website, party membership voted recently on endorsing the pro-independence joint ticket and 85% said "Yes".
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #358 on: August 07, 2015, 03:04:55 pm »

Would I be mistaken in assuming the name of the Podemos electoral alliance was deliberately chosen to confuse pro-independence voters?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #359 on: August 07, 2015, 06:58:30 pm »

Would I be mistaken in assuming the name of the Podemos electoral alliance was deliberately chosen to confuse pro-independence voters?

Probably. Why do you think so?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #360 on: August 09, 2015, 04:23:48 am »

These two pieces might work well as an overview of the current state of affairs.

The new bid for secession in Catalonia:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/world/europe/catalonia-calls-election-in-new-bid-for-secession-from-spain.html?_r=0

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The "unpredictable political autumn" and the trend spotted by the CIS poll:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/05/uk-spain-politics-poll-idUKKCN0QA17Z20150805

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,741
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #361 on: September 27, 2015, 07:40:49 am »

Catalonia turnout at 11am at 35% which is 5% above 2012.  Exit polls at 6pm it seems.
Logged
Nanwe
Full Member
***
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #362 on: September 27, 2015, 11:21:53 am »
« Edited: September 27, 2015, 11:27:16 am by Nanwe »

Catalonia turnout at 11am at 35% which is 5% above 2012.  Exit polls at 6pm it seems.

Not quite. Exist polls will be at 9 or so, since the electoral colleges close at 8. At 6 we got the second turnout data, a turnout of 63.14%, over 7 pp. higher than in 2012. Apparently higher in traditionally non-nationalist areas.

Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #363 on: October 01, 2015, 04:31:55 pm »

PM Mariano Rajoy announced that the Spanish General Election will take place on December 20.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/10/01/actualidad/1443726596_360140.html
Logged
ag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,846


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #364 on: October 01, 2015, 10:14:57 pm »

PM Mariano Rajoy announced that the Spanish General Election will take place on December 20.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/10/01/actualidad/1443726596_360140.html

¡Finally!
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #365 on: October 11, 2015, 04:39:14 am »

Metroscopia poll released by El País:


Vote estimation for C's seems a bit exaggerated, as usual in this pollster. However the trend in last polls is that, after elections in Catalonia, the orange party is replacing the purple as third force.

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3 (October 5):

PP 27%, PSOE 21.9%, C's 16.5%, Podemos 14.8%, IU 4.5%

I think PSOE's estimation is a bit low, whereas according to Metroscopia there's a PP-PSOE tie. My guess is that PP might be ahead by a narrow margin (2% or 3%).
Logged
Nanwe
Full Member
***
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #366 on: October 11, 2015, 07:53:22 am »

Well, Kiko Llaneras has released a poll average. Also showing C's estimation according to Metroscopia, which is just crazy.

Warning: Large image.



Acccording to this and most other polls, both C's and Podemos surpass the de facto 15% threshold that usually impedes third parties from gaining a number of seats roughly proportional to their proportion of votes. Therefore, each party will probably gain around 40-50 seats in December, unless things change a lot.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #367 on: October 11, 2015, 08:49:42 am »

Well, Kiko Llaneras has released a poll average. Also showing C's estimation according to Metroscopia, which is just crazy.

Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too, so there's some kid of balance in that average. However, it includes polls released from Aug 15. I think such kind of work will be more interesting within one month from the date of the Catalan elections. There's a realistic chance of seeing C's as third party, so Albert Rivera could realize his dream of becoming the king maker. It'd be amusing a government of the two Kens: Pedro Sánchez and Rivera but (as far as I know) C's is not willing to join coalition governments (regrettably Sad ).
Logged
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,849
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #368 on: October 11, 2015, 09:00:33 am »

So, Catalonia. What happens? Will the ERC/CDC alliance continue? Will they bother to take their seats or will they do Sinn Fein? Will Catalonia make moves towards independence between now and the election?
Logged
Nanwe
Full Member
***
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #369 on: October 11, 2015, 09:01:51 am »


Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too, so there's some kid of balance in that average. However, it includes polls released from Aug 15. I think such kind of work will be more interesting within one month from the date of the Catalan elections. There's a realistic chance of seeing C's as third party, so Albert Rivera could realize his dream of becoming the king maker. It'd be amusing a government of the two Kens: Pedro Sánchez and Rivera but (as far as I know) C's is not willing to join coalition governments (regrettably Sad ).

I guess so, but it is still mind-blowing. NRC Report and Celeste are indeed over-valuing the PP, but  in a less blatant manner (if still pretty blatant), because you can still find some polls in between, but sometimes it seems like Metroscopia has stopped calling people altogether and just make up random numbers. Worst part is that Metroscopia still has a reputation that neither NRC nor Celeste-Tel have. Which is worrying.

It is indeed realistic, the Catalan elections have propelled them to a centre stage of the campaign. Their electoral plank, with its pragmatic centrist message (reminds of the UCD's speeches: You are Christian-democrat? We have those in UCD, social-democrat? that too! Liberal? of course, democrat? sure thing!!) and what I call "moderate constitutional revision" plans seem likely to attract many dissatisfied PP voters and also PSOE voters who don't believe Sánchez will deliver.

You're right though. C's seems inclined (I'd say) towards supporting a minority PSOE government from outside (PP? Unlikely, I think) and will demand electoral law changes and a constitutional revision, in which all four main parties will participate. I wonder what will happen if we go down that route, in 1978 there were 2 main parties and 4 0.5 parties (PCE, AP, Minoría catalana and PNV), whereas now you have 4 national parties, one alienated Catalan nationalist and the PNV (funny how things change, now the PNV would be the more pragmatic unlike in 78). Reforming the Constitution (if it happens) will be a difficult thing.

That is, assumming C's supports the PSOE. If they support a PP minority, things will be weird and I doubt Rajoy will be allowed to remain as President. But who would replace him? The non-marianistas are very few within the party and Cospedal is hated (and so is Soraya) within the party.

Luckily I'll be in Spain on the 20th, so I'll vote Cheesy

So, Catalonia. What happens? Will the ERC/CDC alliance continue? Will they bother to take their seats or will they do Sinn Fein? Will Catalonia make moves towards independence between now and the election?

That's the million dollar question, isn't it?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #370 on: October 11, 2015, 09:55:18 am »

You're right though. C's seems inclined (I'd say) towards supporting a minority PSOE government from outside (PP? Unlikely, I think) and will demand electoral law changes and a constitutional revision, in which all four main parties will participate. I wonder what will happen if we go down that route, in 1978 there were 2 main parties and 4 0.5 parties (PCE, AP, Minoría catalana and PNV), whereas now you have 4 national parties, one alienated Catalan nationalist and the PNV (funny how things change, now the PNV would be the more pragmatic unlike in 78). Reforming the Constitution (if it happens) will be a difficult thing.

I see a clash between PNV and C's on an issue called concierto económico, because that is a sacred thing regardless how pragmatic Basque nationalists are. That's far from being the only obstacle for a much needed constitutional reform. The balance of forces between the four main parties after the elections has relevance in this context.
Logged
Nanwe
Full Member
***
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #371 on: October 11, 2015, 10:15:51 am »

I see a clash between PNV and C's on an issue called concierto económico, because that is a sacred thing regardless how pragmatic Basque nationalists are. That's far from being the only obstacle for a much needed constitutional reform. The balance of forces between the four main parties after the elections has relevance in this context.

Indeed. If it were up to me, I'd suppress the concierto and replace it with ample fiscal autonomy for all autonomies at a similar level, perhaps with reduced competencies for the smaller regions, like Cantabria or La Rioja (I mean, c'mon, why are either of them CCAA??!). But since we're talking about what is feasible and not my own ideas, you are right. It's difficult, but I think that C's would give up on that issue after making some noise and explain their decision on the basis of 'achieving consensus requires giving up on some issues".

You are right of course, and this is all hypothesising. Elections in December are very far away in political terms and it can rain a lot in between. I do wonder how extending special protection to Catalan would work, as Catalanists want and PSOE and Podemos seem inclined to accept. What do you do? Put a clause saying "Catalan deserves special protection from the State"?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #372 on: October 11, 2015, 08:49:50 pm »


Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too

I guess so, but it is still mind-blowing. NRC Report and Celeste are indeed over-valuing the PP, but  in a less blatant manner (if still pretty blatant), because you can still find some polls in between, but sometimes it seems like Metroscopia has stopped calling people altogether and just make up random numbers. Worst part is that Metroscopia still has a reputation that neither NRC nor Celeste-Tel have. Which is worrying.

Wait, Metroscopia was reasonably spotted on in predicting the result in Catalonia on September 27.

http://www.politicalmarkets.com/wordpress/?p=2099

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/09/22/media/1442955198_970208.html

Metroscopia estimations for the general election are another question (they tend to overestimate insurgent parties, particularly C's). Still, I think that pollster is more reliable than NC Report (they only work for La Razón and the PP) and Celeste-Tel (apparently the polling chief is the wife of that of NC Report).

You are right of course, and this is all hypothesising. Elections in December are very far away in political terms and it can rain a lot in between. I do wonder how extending special protection to Catalan would work, as Catalanists want and PSOE and Podemos seem inclined to accept. What do you do? Put a clause saying "Catalan deserves special protection from the State"?

At this point, I would put the word "nation" together with the word "Catalunya" in the constitutional text. In the present text Catalonia is already a "historical nationality". Recently Valencia regional premier Ximo Puig proposed to restore the 2006 Catalan Stature, the same Albert Rivera says is unconstitutional. Of course Catalans would ask for some safeguards for the Catalan language, in order to prevent that someone like José Ignacio Wert takes on again Education and Culture portfolios.

I read today (I should say yesterday, it's 2 AM at home) a good article by historian Santos Juliá, who is the best alive in what concerns Manuel Azaña. I don't necessarily agree on the whole text, but I liked very much the part where he explains how Jaume Vicens Vives -probably the most prominent Catalan historian in the XX Century- had to fight against the "romantic compulsion" that tends to rewrite the past in order to match with a certain nationalistic narrative -of course very 19th century, that is to say 'romantic'-. Reading those paragraphs, you can understand it is only one step from that and the "Catalunya vs Espanya" exhibition on the anniversary of the 1714 siege of Barcelona, which wasn't the final stage of a war between two nations but the end of a dynastic conflict. I'd wish that desire to break away - which, of course, is as legitimate as the desire to stay- didn't need traducing history in order to sustain itself. As for the other camp (call it unionist, constitutionalist, Spanish nationalist, or whatever you want), you can read tons of remarkable nonsense... In short, there's a huge lack of rigor everywhere.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/08/opinion/1444320757_315511.html
Logged
Nanwe
Full Member
***
Posts: 219
Spain


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #373 on: October 15, 2015, 09:16:20 am »

Bad week for the PP: Arantza Quiroga (President of the Basque PP) resigns after her latest attempt to find a place for the PP in the Basque Country in a post-ETA scenario backfired and she was thoroughly criticised by her own party (as she did not consult Génova beforehand) forcing her out of her position. Cayatena Álvarez de Toledo, member of the hard right of the PP said in an interview she would not stand for election if Rajoy continues as candidate. Those controversial statements on the press made her colleagues really angry and she was shouted at at the end of yesterday's parliamentary session by her own party members for her 'betrayal'.

Meanwhile, Montoro was interviewed by El Mundo and he declared that within the party there are people who are 'ashamed' of belonging to the PP and probably refers to the suddenly more social tone the Government has taken for 2015, in an obviously electoralistic line. He also criticises the new generation of PP leaders, whom he feels undervalue the effort of this government on their attempt to widen the appeal of the PP from just 'the crisis is over' message and with their insistence on an ethical renewal of the party.

And then De Guindos has also announced that he will not continue as minister in the next legislature, "even if Rajoys asks me to".

The battle in the Basque Country is essentially a fight between the Sorayistas (Alfonso Alonso and the PP of Álava) and the Cospedal faction, of which Quiroga is a member (sort of, no official factions and all that). Although it is also a fight between the three provincial branches of the PP of Euskadi, basically Alava (Alonso, Oyarzabal) vs. Guipuzcoa & Vizcaya (Quiroga, Basagoiti), which also kind of a fight between the moderates who want the PP to move towards the centre and away from political irrelevance in the now post-ETA PP and the hardliners who want to continue with the Mayor Oreja and María an Gil years policy, which might not work so well as it once did after the demise of ETA.

In the meantime, 10/18 regional PP branches have no leader, as they have resigned, instead they are been led by interim gestoras, and that's 2 months away from the general elections.

And more, to round up today: Francisco Granados talks from prison, points at Aguirre and Ignacio González. Says that the Púnica is not a real operation, because there's still so much people to be detained. URL="http://www.elespanol.com/enfoques/20151014/71492892_0.html"]http://www.elespanol.com/enfoques/20151014/71492892_0.html[/URL]
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,669
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #374 on: October 15, 2015, 02:51:27 pm »

Add this little affair to the list of troubles:

"Brussels ratifies report warning Spain over deficit target risks"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/13/inenglish/1444725703_984035.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The point is that, aside that general opinion says the budget is unrealistic and will need to be revised, no Spanish government has ever passed a budget only a few months before the elections. It's like to tie the hands of the next administration. That report, of course, is a deadly blow for the government's complacency.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 12 13 14 [15] 16 17 18 19 20 ... 93 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC