Spanish elections and politics

[Zinneke]

Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"

"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"


source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.

Well, that same poll predicts 50% turnout, which wouldn't be that low. The last European election in Catalonia for example had 48% turnout. The last town hall election had 59% turnout. So 50% turnout would actually be higher than a european election! And not that low compared to a town hall one!

However the last general election had 66% turnout and the last regional one had 75% turnout so it would still be considered very low.

Also on european elections it's just that people don't care, all parties see their voters turn out less in more or less the same proportion. Meanwhile here you'd have an organized boycott by unionists which would make the results worthless.

Well that is what surprised me about the expected turnout too. The "No" voters still engaged in the last regional election even though it was presented as the Nationalist list vs the Unionist parties, and Ciudadanos seemed to be the main benefactors of this. Plus previous polls for this referendum had turnout at much higher levels

I understand the idea of de-legitimising the referendum but what causes the No voters to suddenly change strategy and boycott, considering some poll showed them winning?

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The question is who the train crash will benefit the most? Mariano Rajoy or Carles Puigdemont? Both really .

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What about Podem/CSQEP/whatever. Did they abstain?

[Zinneke]

Thanks for the extensive answer. About the EU support for Catalan independence, I got a feeling from the EU bureaucrats in the Committee of Regions (excluding some of the Spanish ones) that Romeva had lobbied hard enough to ensure that while Catalonia would have to re-apply should it ever gain independence (and therefore be blocked by Spain, and to a lesser extent France), the actual Catalan citizens would retain their European citizen rights and still legally be considered Spanish. Its a complicated issue but then that's why you need a comprehensive agreement in place first to vote on...

Also, bit strange that C's and the PDEC sit in the same group in the EP...Our Christian Democrats still won't accept N-VA in the EPP despite having a decent working relationship. 

[Zinneke]

Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.

[Zinneke]

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.

From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.

It seems to me like the ultimate No True Scotsman dilemma - on both sides. You say the polls are showing the  nationalists down but their score combined with CUP is stable and as tack50 said the main loser in PDECat to ERC. If Junqueres backs down now he will see support fade away to the CUP as the last resort of the seperatist. And that's something not many in the Catalan political and economic upper to middle classes want.

Meanwhile in Madrid it's also a question of who is willing to do the most to keep Spain together. Sanchez and Iglesias will be marginalised or smeared in all this.

[Zinneke]

Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.

Not quite. The arrests and registers carried out today are unrelated to the referendum, and instead have to do with a corruption case dating back to January involving Santi Vila. Indeed, they were ordered by a judge independently of the government (the govt. can pressure fiscales, but hardly the judges)

The ballots is another story, of course.

Can you provide a source about the nature of the arrests, because Vanguardia initially said it was about using public funds to fund an illegal referendum, hence the ballot burning. Here's one from El Pais saying the same :

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/09/20/catalunya/1505885372_273143.html

Also, why was the Guardía Civil involved and not the Mossos?  Are fiscal matters not a competence of theirs?  I thought the GC was only involved in border control in Catalunya.

Genuine questions not meant in harm.

[Zinneke]

who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...

You are right in some respects regarding the hypocrisy of self-determination.
The logic of most of the "Western" recognitions you mention was that the incumbent was using excessive and disproportionate repression against those nations, which usually meant a UN-led mission that first required independence of the substate actor.

The Spanish state argues that Catalonia already has self-determination. And Spain does not recognise Kosovo either. So I'm not sure that line of argumentation gets you anywhere with the Spanish state.

[Zinneke]

Yep that police response is exactly how to turn the swing voters and the younger generations towards independence. First thoughts are getting over with it, though. Really sad...

[Zinneke]

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.

If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.

And the current leader is pretty much a Podemos rep.

^wtf

On a side note we had a host of Catalan mayors march into the European Quarter to hold some speeches, and Addidas have released the Spain World Cup kit with the Republican flag on it, triggering the entire Spanish Right-wig twittersphere, and according to the Spanish football federation "people right from the top".




Also apparently Vox is given a seat in some nationwide polls? I thought they faded to irrelevance? Who is leading them these days?

[Zinneke]

hmmm...something tells me at least one of the ones running only in Barcelona are marketing companies.

[Zinneke]

Is there really a chance of the revival of the tripartit of 2003 (CeC replacing ICV obviously)? That was one of the better regional governments in recent years, and it could reconcile Catalan society while pushing for more autonomy. But given what happened in Barcelona it seems like PSC, CeC and ERC can't even get along at the local level over the Catalan national issue.

Also, Puigdemont has just gone off on one against the EU

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171126/433202110437/carles-puigdemont-catalunya-ue-mariano-rajoy.html

[Zinneke]

Given that Sanchez indicated that constitutional reform was now a guarentee in exchange for him to have supported article 155, if I were in ERC's position, I would still negotiate with PSOE in order to take a constitutional compromise at the national level. In exchange, ERC would get PSOE to collapse the Rajoy government and campaign on an explicit federalist platform as a reconciliatory exercise. Its not independence but its the best they can hope for, short term.

I doubt there are many federalists left in the PSOE higher-ups, apart from Sanchez (if he even is a federalist), and even less non-DUI ERC members too. I guess the issue is also that both parties (ERC, PSC) have direct competitors advocating a hardline approach to the Catalan national issue (CUP, C's), so compromise and more elections is a risky business. No True Scotsman-style nationalism is hard to stop these days.

[Zinneke]

But the unionist alliance (C-PSC-PP) is possible? Surely hard for PSC too.
Look like there is no clear way out.

[Zinneke]

^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC

Do you think the traditional Baix Llogrebat and non-catalanist industrial parts in Barcelona comarca will vote PSC or switch to Arrimadas and C's?

Also the vote transfers seem to suggest they are benefiting from CatCom's collapse as you suggest.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171205/433434206682/elecciones-catalanas-sangria-votos-xavier-garcia-albiol-ines-arrimadas-cis.html

[Zinneke]

There is only one thing to look at: will the independists reach the majority of 68 seats? The polls have been consistently tights, with them getting between 65 and 70 seats, so there is a lot of suspense. I am looking forward to the result!
I wonder how the date of the vote  (on a working day instead of Sunday) will influence the result.

If they lose the popular vote but win a majority of seats then, as in 2015, they can only ask for a referendum. And since they have already gone through that "process", I think they'd have to seriously rethink their strategy.

[Zinneke]

PSC can still take a seat off of JxC in Barcelona.

[Zinneke]

Caudillo Albiol almost in tears. Some Clown DJ at the ANC headquarters. This is gunna be a fun night.

[Zinneke]

PP have lost a seat to Cs.

[Zinneke]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

[Zinneke]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

I think La Barceloneta swinging to ERC shows that the votes that some the CeC and Colau lost in this election went towards independence after the way Rajoy reacted. Barceloneta is still considered a more "Catalanist" district though. That would also explain how the actual number of votes for pro-independence parties increased, that and an increased turnout in rural areas for JxC for some reason.

I think a Spanish person will answer your second question better but I would hypothesise Barceloneta and Barcelona in general voted for Colau for reasons much more local than the separatist issue (tourism, social housing, housing speculation prices), and that being indepe or not was pretty irrelevant.

[Zinneke]

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

Yeah, this is more or less correct. Polling hypotheticals (which is more or less what is going on with regards to a hypothetical "Tabarnia") may be interesting for political junkies such as ourselves - but as long as the option remains purely hypotheical, any speculation is precisely that, speculation and nothing more...

Tabernia is not a serious political project, its a demonstration* that some political entrepreneurs believe in one set of legal and moral norms for a specific nation or identity tied to a nation, and another set for another people with a distinct identity of their own.

See also : The Brussels Periphery.


*by a group with links to Societat Civil Catalana, but thats another matter.

[Zinneke]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

Just to revive this question, here is a poll showing ERC overtaking Colau in municipal elections.

https://twitter.com/bcn_ajuntament/status/948879979844112384/photo/1

[Zinneke]

Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

En Marche can only exist in a (semi-)Presidentialist system where one candidate has the initials EM.

[Zinneke]

Interesting that Cs might win the popular vote but come in third in terms of seats!

Seems like UCD's "gerrymander" is still working. Interestingly Cs might be the closest to the old UCD, so it has backfired 40 years later!

Didn't C's say just after the result that they would only govern if electoral reform is on the table? I imagine this is what they will want implemented in the new constitutional reforms regardless, but if they end up with that result in that electoral system they will only have themselves to blame. Just as the LibDems have themselves to blame for the AV vote going to a referendum in UK.

[Zinneke]

A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.

He's gotten the glorious taste of campaigning for the N-VA in Leuven for example, over "how to kick out the socialists" from the town hall.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/01/05/puigdemont-komt-spreken-bij-n-va-leuven--over-hoe-socialistische/

I imagine he misses the weather though.

[Zinneke]

What is C's position on the rather draconian censorship laws the PP has been introducing? It should be a litmus test of their "liberal" credentials.