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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 271710 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #50 on: December 21, 2017, 04:25:47 pm »

What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.
I know. Here in Portugal we also had weird results because of the d'hondt method, but the problem is that after all the fuss, nothing changed basically. If JxCat holds it's second place, it will be interesting to see the reaction of ERC.
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Mike88
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« Reply #51 on: December 21, 2017, 05:48:59 pm »

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  Sad

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?
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Mike88
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« Reply #52 on: December 21, 2017, 05:55:37 pm »

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  Sad

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.
From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.
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Mike88
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« Reply #53 on: December 21, 2017, 06:08:03 pm »

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  Sad

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Technically yes, Catalonia uses the same law Spain uses for general elections except for the seat distribution (which comes from a decree from Josep Tarradellas intended for the first regional elections in 1980).

However it's of little relevance to be honest. There are some other communities with systems that are extremely similar. Castille-Leon for example does technically have its own election law, but it's basically the same as if it didn't have it as it has the same characteristics as the general election/Catalonia law (3% theshold, province sized constituencies)

Iirc they'd need 2/3 for a new one to be drafted but no one has been able to do get the required majority.


Of course. And a change in the law, like Arrimadas asked in her speech, is impossible because ERC and JxCat will not change a system that clearly benefits them.
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Mike88
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« Reply #54 on: December 22, 2017, 12:41:11 pm »

Reactions after the results:

Rajoy refuses to call early general elections and is willing to talk with the future Catalan government within the law. At the same time, Mr Rajoy's chief of staff, Jorge Moragas, resigned because of the results in Catalonia.

Rajoy also refused the proposed talks with Puigdemont, and will talk with the leader of the most voted party, Inés Arrimadas.

From Portugal, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Augusto Santos Silva, calls for a responsible and democratic dialogue that helps to form a stable government in Catalonia, that preserves Spain's sovereignty and that respects the rights and freedoms of the citizens.
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Mike88
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« Reply #55 on: December 22, 2017, 01:29:25 pm »

Reactions after the results:

At the same time, Mr Rajoy's chief of staff, Jorge Moragas, resigned because of the results in Catalonia.

Apparently Jorge Moragas agreed with Rajoy to resign his post after the Catalan elections, in order to become the next Ambassador to the United Nations. According to the news Moragas decoupled his decision (prior to elections) to the result.

Puigdemont told something interesting to his JxCat colleagues. The deposed president spoke in somewhat rude language, but roughly translated his sentence means "Spain has a terrible mess"

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171222/puigdemont-espana-tiene-pollo-cojones-6512922
Ahh. Wasn't aware that he was going to the UN. I don't get why Puigdemont said that. Yes, Spain may be a mess, but has he looked himself in the mirror? God!
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Mike88
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« Reply #56 on: January 06, 2018, 05:57:23 pm »

SocioMétrica/El Español poll: (Projected seats in parentheses)

24.1% PP (97)
23.9% C's (86)
22.5% PSOE (89)
16.2% UP (49)
  3.5% ERC (13)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.7% Vox (1)
  1.1% PNV (6)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.5% CC (1)
  3.9% Others

75.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 22 and 29 December. Polled 1,000 voters.
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Mike88
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« Reply #57 on: January 14, 2018, 08:02:12 pm »

The trend continues...

GAD3/ABC poll: (projected seats in parentheses)

26.2% C's (86/90)
24.7% PP (97/101)
24.2% PSOE (93/97)
14.7% UP (42/44)
  2.9% ERC (10/11)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.3% PNV (7)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.3% CC (0/1)
  3.1% Others

71.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 January 2018.
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Mike88
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« Reply #58 on: February 02, 2018, 10:22:57 am »

Ada Colau, Barcelona's mayor, has lost a confidence vote and challenges the opposition to present an alternative government and Mayor.

What are the chances of the PDeCAT/C's/PP/PSC opposition of supporting an alternative candidate?
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Mike88
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« Reply #59 on: February 09, 2018, 12:51:25 pm »

Well, I guess El País is starting to do its polls on their offices. Either that or they are outright making them up.

Metroscopia-El País poll

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/02/08/actualidad/1518116526_354844.html

Img


With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10

PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1

Cs-PP and Cs-PSOE both get a majority. In terms of regional winners:

PP: Galicia, Navarra, Ceuta, Melilla
PSOE: Andalucia, Extremadura
PNV: Basque Country
Unsure: Castille-Leon, Castille-La Mancha. The former probably leans Cs, the latter leans PP.
Cs: Everything else

Img

Results by province.

Yeah, C's results seem very exaggerated. Metroscopia has a history of overpolling either C's and Podemos.
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Mike88
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« Reply #60 on: February 11, 2018, 02:39:35 pm »

Another poll, this time from Gad3-ABC. Seems like the situation has stabilized.

Img


Yeah, it seems to stabilize but this poll is bucking the trend a bit: a PP increase and a slight C's decrease. We'll see if another poll confirms this.

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Mike88
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« Reply #61 on: March 25, 2018, 07:20:00 am »

Puigdemont detained after crossing the border between Denmark and Germany.
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Mike88
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« Reply #62 on: April 05, 2018, 12:35:02 pm »

And Puigdemont has been freed! German justice has rejected to extradite Puigdemont for rebellion and has freed Puigdemont under a 75 000 € bail. He might still be extradited to Spain, as the corruption and public fund misappropiation charges have been accepted, but the rebellion charge was dismissed.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180405/442207871883/puigdemont-libre-descarta-rebelion.html

In any case good news for secessionists. Not sure if Puigdemont will try to flee but still.

I don't think he can flee until his ruling is final. It's like if you are suspected of a crime, you are presented to a judged and then you wait the ruling in freedom. If you flee, that's proof of something.

Now, if he is extradite by corruption charges, wouldn't that be bad news for secessionists? I mean, they have already the Pujol case and if Puigdemont is trialed by, only, corruption wouldn't that drain out the idea that he was a political prisoner?
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Mike88
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« Reply #63 on: April 06, 2018, 11:47:13 am »

Castilla-la-Mancha poll from SYM Consulting:

Img
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Mike88
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« Reply #64 on: April 25, 2018, 08:01:44 am »

Cristina Cifuentes resigns as President of the Community of Madrid:

Cristina Cifuentes has resigned as President of the Community of Madrid not because of her master degree fiasco, but because of a video of her shoplifting in a supermarket in 2011.
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Mike88
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« Reply #65 on: April 29, 2018, 02:25:45 pm »
« Edited: April 29, 2018, 02:29:21 pm by Mike88 »

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?
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Mike88
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« Reply #66 on: April 29, 2018, 05:22:53 pm »

Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)

I think C's would had a good chance of being the 1st party in Barcelona with a candidate from that city, after all they won by 4% over ERC in the 2017 elections, but Valls seems a risky bet. We'll see if he even runs, until 2019 a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

About the El País study, i always saw C's as the party of young male voters/middle age men, not young women curiously. Don't know if the "La Manada" case had an impact, but the reaction from Spanish women is quite interesting comapared to a similar situation we had in Portugal a few months ago. A few months ago, a judge from a Porto court ruled that a man, who had violently beaten his wife after finding out she was having an affair, should not receive a higher punishment because the adultery of  his wife "attempted against the dignity of men". To argue his decision, the judge used the outdated 1886 penal code and the bible. There was controversy in the media but in society overall nothing happened, which shows the different attitudes Portuguese and Spanish societies have. It's interesting.
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Mike88
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« Reply #67 on: June 01, 2018, 05:39:58 pm »
« Edited: June 01, 2018, 05:43:12 pm by Mike88 »

What a mess Spain is in....

I think Sanchéz will find himself whitout any real power. First, he will govern with the budget, which is the center piece of every governmental agenda, approved by PP, C's, PNV and that his party voted against. UP and other parties have already sent a motion against the budget to the Senate. Awkward. Then, his coalition is really shaky, to say the least. Mixing UP, the Catalan independents plus the PNV, a center-right regionalist party, in the same bag, well... it's really a Frankenstein coalition. Until October, Sanchéz will probably hold on but then you have the negotiations for the 2019 budget, and how can five parties with completely different agendas agree on a common budget? Yes, Rajoy had to go. He's time was up, but for someone who had survived so many times, he thought he was immortal. Well, no one is, especially Rajoy because he made his own bed, so to say. But now, Spain switched from a lame duck PP minority government to a lame duck PSOE super-tiny minority government. Seriously, even Costa's PS has more MPs than PSOE, and they aren't the biggest party in the Portuguese Parliament.

My guess is that elections will still be held this year, by November or December. January 2019 the latest. We'll see.
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Mike88
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« Reply #68 on: June 02, 2018, 01:27:55 pm »

"Sánchez vs Frankenstein"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180602/443990630548/sanchez-presidente-gobierno-relevo-moncloa.html

The expression "Frankenstein government" was coined by former PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in 2016 to fescribe the attempt of bringing Podemos and Cs together made by Pedro Sánchez. The worst enemies are always in Tour party.

Now the frame or the narrative of the Spanish Right and its allied media is: "Goodbye Rajoy. Welcome Frankenstein".

Certain Paulo Portas coined the expression "governo geringonça" in Portugal. Portas must be very smart, witty and Sharp, just like Pérez Rubalcaba.

The task of Pedro Sánchez is going to be much more difficult than the task of António Costa in 2015, ir the task of Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004.


Didn't knew the term "Frankenstein" was given by the C's friendly press. I thought El País was pró-PSOE, at least they were in the past. Público and Diário de Notícias, the most PS friendly press here in Portugal, are also using the term "Frankenstein", thus my surprise. Yes, Paulo Portas was smarter than the PSD around here. He understood that the "geringonça" would prevail and left the stage as fast as he could. It was reported here, that he warned Rajoy on what he should or shouldn't do, after the inconclusive Spanish 2015 elections.

I agree with you that Sanchéz task is 10 times more harder than Costa. Costa was lucky to have a PSD so bitter and angry at him, that they predicted the coming of the devil, meaning recession, and went full blown pessimistic, giving space for Costa, when businesses understood that nothing would change under him, to gain from the good economic news, that if the PSD was as smart as Paulo Portas, would on the contrary benefit the PSD. The rest is history. A word of advice for C's and PP, don't go to the speech that everything would be a disaster with PSOE. It will, most certainly, backfire. The PP could also rise if they change their leader to either Feijóo of Sáenz de Santamaría, and bring back many PP voters that are trending C's.

I continue with my view that by late this year, earlier 2019, a election will be held. Sanchéz could delay a bit to coincide with the May EU and local elections, in order for PSOE to gain a bit in the polls. They will gain some points because power makes you rise in the polls, it always does.
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Mike88
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« Reply #69 on: June 28, 2018, 09:42:12 am »

Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

Yikes!! Shocked That's real, real bad. It becomes worse if you compare with the PP's sister party in Portugal, the PSD. In this year leadership elections, 70,000 PSD members, out of 120,000 active members, were registered to vote, although only 43,000 voted.
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Mike88
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« Reply #70 on: July 04, 2018, 11:57:39 am »
« Edited: July 04, 2018, 12:01:30 pm by Mike88 »

I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.
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Mike88
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« Reply #71 on: July 05, 2018, 01:13:15 pm »

I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.

Indeed, the issue f the master degree can be a burden. If PP voters were intelligent , they'd vote massively for Santamaría. She's the more capable and competitive, despite her mistakes and failures as Deputy PM. I think Cospedal would be eaten by Rivera (the Cs leader) and Casado isn't convincing (the master, his proximity to Aznar and Aguirre...)

However, who said that party grassroots are clever?

When a party is a "party of power", grassroots have to be cleaver enough to elect the most electable candidate, because the party isn't speaking just to itself, it is also speaking to the country and potential swing voters.

Now, it seems that turnout could be above 70%. Until 6:00, 65.8% of PP members cast a ballot. I've read on Electomania that Cospedal may be leading, but this could also be a way to shore up the Santamaría potential voters.
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Mike88
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« Reply #72 on: July 05, 2018, 03:15:02 pm »
« Edited: July 05, 2018, 03:20:41 pm by Mike88 »

42,000 votes counted:

15,971 39.9% Casado
13,604 34.0% Santamaría
10,460 26.4% Cospedal
     552   1.4% Margallo

It seems that Andalucia and Castilla La Mancha are still out. This could be good news for Santamaría and Cospedal.

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Mike88
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« Reply #73 on: July 05, 2018, 04:53:03 pm »
« Edited: July 05, 2018, 05:01:57 pm by Mike88 »

Total final results:

21,513 37.0% Santamaría
19,967 34.4% Casado
15,090 26.0% Cospedal
     680   1.2% Margallo
     668   1.2% Hernandéz
     185   0.3% Cabanes
     202   0.4% Blank/Invalid ballots            

58,305 87.4% Turnout

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?
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Mike88
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« Reply #74 on: July 06, 2018, 04:49:59 pm »
« Edited: July 06, 2018, 04:54:09 pm by Mike88 »

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?

Given that Cospedal and Santamaría hate each other and the margin is narrow, it's very likely that Casado takes the battle. Tonight he called Cospedal supporters to join his ranks. Obviously he has a good chance of winning the second round at the party convention, with the support of delegates loyal to Cospedal.  However, Santamaría supporters will argue that her candidate is the one entitled to be the next PP leder. This outcome is potentially harmful for the party's unity. In that regard, it would have been better that Casado came first. This mess proves that the voting system is poorly designed. It could have been averted with the membership voting in the two rounds. It happens that PP never held democratic elections before.
You're right that whoever made this election system up should get an Oscar for "Most stupid picture", but that doesn't explain the stupidity of Calado and Cospedal, in view. These people were just furious, a few weeks ago, that the second party in Parliament was now government and now they want to join forces to overthrow the most voted candidate in their party's primaries. See the contradiction here? Plus, Calado is now on the spotlight. I wouldn't be surprised that in the next few days, some new development about his master degree is published.
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