Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

The internal chasm inside IU Madrid (IUCM) has deepened in the last days. Tania Sánchez, candidate elect for the next regional election, has left the IUCM membership and her seat in the Regional Assembly (thus, she won't be the IU candidate). Sánchez intends to create a new party aimed to converge in a "popular unity candidacy". A couple of days ago, the PCE branch in Madrid broke ties with the IUCM, pledging allegiance to the IU's federal executive. Sánchez, however, won't seek IU's approval . Instead, she aims to rally around her new party those who believe that there's a chance of unseating the PP regional government. But Podemos still intends to run its own list in the regional elections. Unless they change their strategy, "popular unity" candidacies including Podemos are only possible at local level (using various legal formulas, such as independent lists or the "instrumental party" that will run in the city of Madrid). Meanwhile, the IUCM 'old guard' is determined to stay, regardless several IU leaders have asked them to leave. The attitude of Cayo Lara and the federal executive has been hesitant and irresolute in tackling the crisis in Madrid, which is one of the most important regional federations in IU.

Edit: Pablo Iglesias offered Tania Sánchez and those who believe that "change is possible" to join the Podemos candidacy, although he says that respects the decisions of members of other organisations. "I would be delighted that all the good people would assume that Podemos is their instrument, but we are going to respect them if they think their instruments are others", said iglesias.

[Velasco]

- Tania Sánchez has discarded joining Podemos. She and her followers (IUCM dissidents) will seek to create a space for "change and popular unity". The potential IU candidate Alberto Garzón was understanding with her departure, blaming the current IUCM leadership which should have taken political responsibilities for the involvement in corruption scandals of former IU representatives in Caja Madrid. Other IU leaders have criticised her decision. Sánchez won't seek that her new party replace IUCM as the IU's referent in Madrid, although she hopes meeting her former partners along the way, as well to find a formula to cooperate with them and Podemos in a "popular unity candidacy".

- Juan Carlos Monedero (who is the Podemos nº3 behind Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón) submitted on Jan 29 a complementary tax return, paying around 130,000 additional Euros to the Treasury. That amount was paid order to regularise the taxes he paid in 2013 for the income he received from several Latin American in exchange for consultancy works. Monedero paid 70,000 Euros in that year through an unipersonal limited company; as a legal person he should have paid 200,000. According to Podemos, Monedero chose the most favourable payment option for the Treasury, in order to tackle a negative campaign against him orchestrated by the government (they perceived a veiled menace from Finance minister Cristóbal Montoro) and right-wing press. Deputy PM Soraya Sáez de Santamaría stated that "if every one did like Monedero, there would be more money to pay social services. PSOE spokesman Antonio Hernando compared Monedero with Luis Bárcenas, the former PP treasurer.

While the method of payment he used in 2013 is legal, he should have created his limited society before starting to work or paid taxes as a self-employed worker. It's possible that error is the result of a bad tax advice, although paying correctly is his personal responsibility. On the other hand, the comparison with Bárcenas looks exaggerated and the attitude of the Finance minister and the government contrasts sharply with the non-existent will to cooperate in the investigation of several scandals (for instance, those affecting former Caja Madrid/Bankia officials or princess Cristina). Monedero, on his part, didn't provide explanations and claimed being subject of a campaign against him, acting like those establishment politicians he criticise. Obviously, most of the media is hostile to Podemos and its leaders are being over scrutinised. Unverified information on alleged wrongdoings is not uncommon as of late. For instance, days ago El País claimed that Monedero falsified his curriculum vitae without solid evidence and later the paper had to rectify. El Mundo did the same with some information concerning Íñigo Errejón.

- PP territorial leaders are nervous because of Rajoy's indecision, especially regional premiers Alberto Fabra (Valencia) and Ignacio González (Madrid). Apparently, Mariano Rajoy has taken a decision on whom will be the candidates in the main places at stake in the regional and local elections. As usual in the Spanish PM, he would be delaying the announcements until the last moment, just in case it happens something (a scandal, a rival's move...). Alberto Fabra and Ignacio González hope to be nominated and seek reelection. The mayoral candidate in Madrid could be Esperanza Aguirre, although government delegate Cristina Cifuentes is not fully discarded. Internal polling is not very favourable in the capital of Spain and Rajoy would leave Aguirre (who polls slightly better than other potential candidates) to run on her fate. Given that elections in Andalusia were put forward, regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno has been confirmed together with José Antonio Monago in Extremadura. The only mayoral candidates conformed yesterday by the electoral committee were those whom will run in the provincial capitals of Extremadura and Galicia. The impatient potential candidates in other regions will have to wait until the next meeting.

- In Andalusia, the list topped by MEP Teresa Rodríguez that will run in the Podemos internal primary elections (named something like "Sowing Future") might include people from the ecologist party Equo. The Vox Party and Ciudadanos have already nominated candidates. Former judge Francisco Serrano (notorious for a controversial campaign on gender violence, calling women for not filing false complaints) will run for the conservative PP splinter. The top C's candidate will be Juan Marín, Deputy Mayor of Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and linked to the party since 2011. Marín ran in the Ciudadanos por Sanlúcar list in the past municipal elections, group which governs in coalition with the local PSOE.

[Velasco]

New polls.

Invymark / La Sexta

PP 26.1%, Podemos 26%, PSOE 20.1%, UPyD 5%, IU 4.3%, C's 3.8%.

Metroscopia / El País

Podemos 27.7%, PP 20.9%, PSOE 18.3%, C's 12.2%, IU 6.5%, UPyD 4.5%.

_{The Metroscopia poll can provoke an orgasmic rection in Albert Rivera's hosts. My opinion is that pollster should stop taking dope. On the other hand, the CIS might be underestimating C's. Raw polling data shows UPyD and Ciudadanos tied in the CIS Jan survey.}

[Velasco]

Celeste-Tel poll for the Andalusian elections released by various regional papers.

PSOE 36%, PP 27.8%, Podemos 16.1%, IU 7.3%, C's 4.6%, PA 3.2%, UPyD 2.8%

Seats (109): PSOE 47, PP 36, Podemos 17, IU 7, C's 2

Sample size: 3300 (phone calls). Fieldwork: Jan 17-22.

[Velasco]

The dismissal of Tomás Gómez appears to be handled clumsily, especially hearing the yesterday's imprecise statements made by the secretary for organisation César Luena (who seems mediocrity personified, on the other hand). Possible reasons are the issue of extra costs in the construction of a tram in Parla (a working-class town located south of Madrid) when Gómez was mayor, the repercussions of a scandal involving former PP and PSOE mayors (including Francisco Granados, who also was a top regional official and one of the Esperanza Aguirre's lieutenants) or internal conflicts in the PSOE's Madrid branch. Tomás Gómez is not formally accused for the tram affair; even though he has been a controversial, despotic and arguably incompetent leader, the procedure to get rid of him looks somewhat rushed and irregular (some people defined it as a little coup d'état).

PSOE's executive has appointed a management committee led by former regional leader Rafael Simancas, that includes several rivals of Gómez such as Jaime Lissavetzky (candidate for Mayor of Madrid in 2011). Some media point former minister of Education Ángel Gabilondo as possible candidate for regional premier, seen as a "winning candidate" by the PSOE's leadership. Gabilondo, who is not in PSOE, was the Rector of the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and is brother of a prestigious journalist. El País is already campaigning for him. Metroscopia conducted an "urgency" (if not "scence-fiction") poll immediately after the dismissal placing PSOE first in voting intention, with Podemos falling to third place. While Ángel Gabilondo is far better person than Tomás Gómez and maybe better candidate, he's not well known by voters.   

(Welcome back, Namwe. Hope that you and Julio continue posting something)

[Velasco]

Good luck with your thesis. Julio is busy and I have to prepare an exam too. I think this weekend I'll try to make a summary of parties and candidates running in Andalusia. That election should deserve a thread in its own, but there's no time. I'm retouching a map I made of the 2012 election, anyway.

Have you seen El País' latest poll? It only took them one day for the PSOE to dismiss Gomez and El Pais has a "poll" showing how much that has benefited the party (with a crazy polling result for C's). Either the most BS poll ever or the most efficient polling system in history. I'm inclined towards the former.

And I used to take Metroscopia as a serious pollster... Now it's the worst, not even La Razón's polls are so bad.

I already commented that. Metroscopia is fairly unreliable, indeed. I think C's is growing, but 12% nationwide is pure fantasy. I doubt they are going to win seats next month in Andalusia while the UPyD might be on the verge; soon we'll see.

El País is already campaigning for him. Metroscopia conducted an "urgency" (if not "science-fiction") poll immediately after the dismissal placing PSOE first in voting intention, with Podemos falling to third place. While Ángel Gabilondo is far better person than Tomás Gómez and maybe better candidate, he's not well known by voters.   

[Velasco]

University of Granada poll (Andalusia, regional elections).

PSOE 35.2%, PP 29.1%, Podemos 14.9%, IU 8.4%, C's 4.6%, UPyD 3.1%, PA 2.4%

Sample size: 1200. Fieldwork: Jan 8-31.

[Velasco]

Andalusia 2015:

The Andalusian election was called on January 27 and will be held on Sunday March 22. Regional premier Susana Díaz (PSOE) decided to move forward the election one year before the end of term in 2016, stating the "instability" of the PSOE-IU coalition government and the lack of trust towards her coalition partners as the main reasons to dissolve the Andalusian Parliament.

The 2012 election:



_{Leading party by municipality. The IU colour has been changed from from purple in the first version of the map to lime green, making it coincide with the regional organisation's logo. From now on, purple will be assigned to Podemos.}

Results:

PP 40.66% (+2.21%) winning 50 seats (+3)
PSOE-A 39.52% (-8.89%) winning 47 seats (-9)
IULV-CA 11.34% (+4.28%) winning 12 seats (+6)
UPyD 3.35% (+2.73%) winning 0 seats (nc)
PA 2.5% (-0.26%) winning 0 seats (nc)
Equo 0.53% (-0.05%) winning 0 seats (nc)

The 2012 election placed the Popular Party (PP) first, but it fell short of a majority by 5 seats. That result left ambivalent interpretations for the conservative force. It was an historic outcome because, by the first time in 30 years, the Andalusian branch of PP was able to become in the largest party ahead of the socialists. However, the outcome was a failure because of the high previous expectations. PP had already beaten PSOE by a 9% margin in the 2011 general election; nearly all polls were predicting a PP majority and no less than a 6-7% lead.  Finally, the outcome made nearly impossible for veteran regional leader Javier Arenas to become in the next regional premier. The frustrated expectations for change in Andalusia were a huge disappointment for a then victorious PP, as well as a warning bell for the Rajoy administration in Madrid. The election took place in the first months of the incumbent PP government and the ruling party was beginning to be unpopular due to the implementation of tough economic measures. While the Rajoy administration apparently took the austerity path by conviction, such measures were in open contradiction with the 2011 electoral platform, which promised an economic recovery without prescribing the bitterest medicines (such as cuts in social services and tax increases). A new labour reform was passed. Remarkably, the sponsor was a member of the Andalusian PP: Fátima Báñez, minister for employment. The reform gave employers great facilities to fire workers, as well as a de facto suppression of collective agreements which supposed the weakening of trade union power.

Despite having been defeated by a narrow 1% margin, PSOE performed better than expected. José Antonio Griñán, the then incumbent regional premier, achieved a "moral victory". Griñán proved to be right when he decided not following a previous pattern of making coincide the regional elections with the Spanish general election; the latter had been called in advance by Zapatero and set in November 2011. The regional premier was able to avoid a sound defeat of disastrous consequences for his party, already in a state of depression as a consequence of the 2011 electoral catastrophes. Besides, he was able to remain in office with the support of the United Left (IU), which whom the Andalusian socialists reached an agreement to form a coalition government. However, Griñán was touched by the repercussions of the ERE scandal*, which later provoked his resignation in the summer of 2013. Immediately after (September 2013), Griñán was appointed senator by the Andalusian Parliament in representation of the region.

*In order to save time, I'll quote El Caudillo's blog (you can read the regional profile, too):

https://welections.wordpress.com/2012/03/28/andalusia-and-asturias-spain-2012/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The main beneficiary of PSOE's decline was the IU, increasing more than 4% (about 1/2 of PSOE's losses). In comparison with the result of the 2011 general election in Andalusia, PP suffered significant losses (mainly to abstention), whereas the PSOE-IU left block remained stable (in terms of raw vote) with some internal redistribution between both parties. The Andalusian IU reached its electoral peak in the mid 90's, remarkably when former mayor of Córdoba Julio Anguita was the IU national leader (19.3% in 1994, 14.1% in 1996). Anguita himself ran in the 1986 elections getting 17.9% of the vote. The IU declined sharply since then, falling to 7-8% in subsequent elections held in the 00's. The IU's increase in 2012 was arguably due a favourable context, rather than the ability of its regional leadership (besides, the candidate Diego Valderas was miles away from the charismatic Julio Anguita in terms of popular appeal).

The result was disappointing for the UPyD, which failed to win seats and received less votes than in the 2011 general election without benefiting from PP and PSOE losses. If UPyD was replicating the 2011 result, it could have won 2 seats in the regional parliament. The regionalist Andalusian Party (PA), which had parliamentary representation in past elections and even joined coalition governments with PSOE, was unable to recover support and got a poor result. The ecologist Equo only got a tiny 0.5%, falling from 1% in November 2011.


Electoral system:

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected in 8 multi-member districts, which correspond to the 8 Andalusian provinces. Each of the region's provinces are allocated 8 members, while the remaining 45 seats are allocated on the basis of population. Seats for each party are allocated using D'Hondt closed-list proportional representation. Only lists above a 3% of votes cast in each district are entitled to enter in the distribution. In practice, a list needs more than 5% of valid votes to win seats in the most populous provinces, Seville and Malaga.

Distribution of seats by province:

Seville 18, Málaga 17, Cádiz 15, Granada 13, Almería 12, Córdoba 12, Huelva 11, Jaén 11.

[Velasco]

Parties and candidates:

Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A)

Incumbent premier Susana Díaz seeks reelection. She took office in September 2013, after the renunciation of José Antonio Griñán in July; subsequently, she replaced him as secretary general of the Andalusian socialists in November 2013. As the head of the main socialist federation (1/4 of PSOE membership is Andalusian), she has became in one of the most influential figures of the Spanish socialists. Arguably she played an important role in the Pedro Sánchez's rise to the PSOE's leadership. Despite she appeared neutral in the socialist primary held in July 2014, she was said to be behind Pedro Sánchez's landslide in Andalusia (61% of the vote). Immediately after the Sánchez's victory, it seemed to exist a good empathy between him and Díaz. However, subsequent turmoil in PSOE has been accompanied by rumours on Susana Díaz's ambition to run at the head of PSOE in the next general election, which she refuses stating that her priorities are Andalusia and her next maternity (she's expected to give birth by July).

Despite her young age, Susana Díaz (Seville, 1974) has a long political career in the Andalusian branch of PSOE. At the age of 18 she joined the Socialist Youth, where she held the post of secretary for organisation. She was elected councillor in the Seville City Hall in 1999. Since then, she has served in various political offices (national deputy, member of the regional parliament, senator), as well as in several party positions. In May 2012 Griñán appointed her regional minister for Presidency and Equality.

Susana Díaz will top the list in the province of Seville. The rest of the top candidates are experienced politicians, although all who might be affected by the ongoing investigation of the ERE scandal have been excluded. The socialist platform incorporates three unfinished laws outlined by the coalition government, all of them IU demands which PSOE takes up: citizen's participation, "democratic memory" (Franco's victims) and a public credit institute. 

Popular Party (PP)

The candidate is Juan Manuel Moreno (1970), regional leader since May 2014 replacing Mayor of Seville Juan Ignacio Zoido. Juan Manuel Moreno led the PP's Youth (the "New Generations") and was councillor in the Malaga Town Hall, member of the Andalusian Parliament and of the Congress of Deputies. Between the PP's victory in November 2011 until his appointment at the head of the Andalusian Populares, he was secretary of Social Services and Equality in the Rajoy administration. His main handicaps are a low level of knowledge among Andalusian and a controversy around his curriculum vitae (his academic qualifications lack of official recognition). Juan Manuel Moreno seeks the centre, appealing to "moderate policies" in opposition to the "radicality risk" represented by Podemos and IU. The candidate will top the list in Málaga, while the inclusion of former regional leader in the 4th place of the Almería's list caused some surprise.

United Left The Greens-Assembly for Andalusia (IULV-CA)

Antonio Maíllo (1966), who is the IU's regional coordinator since June 2013 in replacement of the then Deputy Premier Diego Valderas, is the candidate to preside La Junta. He has a degree in Classical Philology and is a secondary school teacher. Left-wing activist since the age of 18, he was councillor in Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and Aracena (Huelva) and joined PCE in 1996. Maíllo was nominated candidate in a primary election held in July 2014. He had a critical stance of the coalition government and has good empathy with deputy Alberto Garzón, who will be the IU's candidate in the general election. Antonio Maíllo will top the list in Seville, in replacement of Marinaleda mayor Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo. The Sánchez Gordillo's party (CUT, Workers' Unity Candidacy), decided to leave the IU some days ago and not taking part in the primary process to select candidates. Apparently, the IU leadership felt somewhat relieved by that decision; the Maíllo's candidacy will seek to attract urban vote and the rural 'revolutionary' profile of the CUT didn't help.

Podemos

MEP Teresa Rodríguez (1981) was proclaimed candidate after a primary election in which she topped a "unity list" agreed with the Pablo Iglesias' team. Teresa Rodríguez is a young activist born in Rota (Cádiz), where is located a Naval Station which is funded by the USA and has US military personnel. She joined a movement against the presence of US military in Rota at a very young age, joined the IU at the age of 18 and later the Anticapitalist Left. Teresa Rodríguez has a degree in Arab Philology and is secondary school teacher.

The candidate will top the list in Cádiz, while people close to the Podemos' national leadership will top the list in other provinces: art historian Lucía Ayala in Almería; sociologist David Moscoso in Córdoba; professor of Civil Law Luis Serrano in Granada; and Begoña Gutiérrez in Seville. The Podemos list integrates members of Equo, with the candidate elect of the ecologist organisation running in the 3rd place for Córdoba. Also, several members of the Sánchez Gordillo's CUT will run, although controversial rural union leader Diego Cañamero was excluded by petition of the Podemos' leadership in Madrid. Both Equo and CUT preserve their character of independent organisations. On the other hand, Podemos elected regional executives past weekend except in Andalusia, due to the proximity of the elections.

Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)

Lawyer Martín de la Herrán (1976) will repeat as candidate and will top the list in Málaga.

Citizens (C's)

The candidate is Juan Marín (1962), Deputy Mayor of Sanlúcar (Cádiz). Among his goals are strengthen the party's regional structure and offering Andalusians a new alternative "viable, sensible and regenerative".

Andalusian Party (PA)

Antonio Jesús Ruiz (1973), secretary general of the PA in replacement of Pilar González (unsuccessful candidate for Mayor of Seville), will run as candidate trying to improve the party's fortune in this elections. Ruiz has been Deputy Mayor in Puerto de Santa María (Cádiz). The Andalusian Party defines its ideology as "nationalist, federalist and progressive".

Vox

Former judge Francisco Serrano is the candidate of the Vox Party, a PP's hardcore conservative splinter which seemingly is accentuating an ultra Catholic profile. Serrano is quite controversial because of his statements on alleged false complaints about gender-based violence ("woman be honest...") and the so-called "gender ideology" which, in his words, brings to the destruction of family.

[Velasco]

Professor and former minister for Education Ángel Gabilondo has been appointed by the PSOE executive committee candidate for the regional elections in Madrid. PSOE members had the chance to express their opinion on the suitability of the potential candidates and Gabilondo received an overwhelming support. Aside Gabilondo, who is an independent, the other postulant was Madrid councillor Pedro Zerolo, a gay activist. In representation of Tomás Gómez's supporters, MRA Amparo Valcarce withdrew her candidacy and backed Zerolo.

Former IU MRA and candidate elect Tania Sánchez joined Equo and other movements to create a candidacy called "Assembly for Madrid". It's unclear if they'll reach some kind of agreement with Podemos. Meanwhile IUCM spokepersons Ángel Pérez and Gregorio Gordo have been disowned by the IU federal executive, although that means little in practical terms. Both IU and the new Assembly for Madrid have little chances of getting into the Madrid Regional Assembly running in their own. Additionally, Ciudadanos is on the rise in Madrid and the rest of Spain if we have to trust in polls (which is not easy).

Ciudadanos hired a prestigious economist called Luis Garicano; he and C's leader Albert Rivera presented the party's economic platform in Madrid a couple of days ago. Apparently, Ciudadanos is about to become in a centrist Podemos in order to carry former PP voters from abstention. It seems clear that Rivera has the support of some influential media, as well as certain Catalan entrepreneurs.

Edit: I misnamed Mr. Garicano

[Velasco]

February polls. Trust them at your own peril.

General election:

My Word / Cadena SER

Podemos 24.6%, PP 22.5%, PSOE 19.5%, C's 13.4%, UPyD 3.3%, IU 3%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-11. Sample size: 1000 (online)

Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco

PP 29.6%, Podemos 25.8%, PSOE 20.1%, C's 7.3%, IU 4.1%, CiU 2.6%, ERC 2.4%, UPyD 1.8%, PNV 1.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-12. Sample size: 1800 (phone calls)

Sigma Dos / Valencia region (general election):

PP 31.2%, Podemos 26.7%, PSOE 17.5%, C's 5.8%, IU 5.1%, Compromís 5%, UPyD 2.9%

Regional elections:

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid regional election (129 seats, 5% threshold):

PP 38.8% (59 seats), Podemos 23.6% (35), PSOE 17.3% (26), C's 6% (9), UPyD 4.6% (-), IU 4.5% (-), Others 5.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 12-13. Sample size: 1600

Metroscopia / El País

Madrid (129):

PP 28% (38), Podemos 24.6% (34), PSOE 17% (23), C's 15.8% (21), IU 5.5% (7), UPyD 5% (6), Others 4.1%

Fieldwork: Feb 19-20. Sample size: 1200 (phone)

Vaubán / Extremadura7Días

Extremadura (65 seats):

PSOE 33.4% (24), PP 32.6% (24), Podemos 12.7% (9), UPyD 7.6% (5), IU 5.1% (3), C's 3.2% (-), Regionalists 2.1% (-), Others 3.3%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-20. Sample size: 1067 (phone)

Local elections:

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid (57 councillors, 5% threshold)

PP 40.1% (26), PSOE 21.5% (14), Podemos/Ganemos 14.9% (10), C's 6.5% (4), IU 5% (3), UPyD 4.8% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 12-13. Sample size: 800

Feedback / La Vanguardia

Barcelona (41 councillors, 5% threshold)

CiU 25.3% (11/12), Guanyem 21.4% (10), PP 13.7% (6) PSC 10.7% (5), ERC 10.3% (4/5), C's 8.1% (3), CUP 4.1% (0/2)

Fieldwork: Feb 16-19. Sample size: 700 (phone)

What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!

I have not a clue.

[Velasco]

I think it's more realistic assuming that C's is actually polling 5-6 nationwide. On the other hand, I have little doubt that the "window of opportunity" for the Rosa Díez's UPyD has passed and Albert Rivera (like it or not) is the man of the moment, that is to say, the representative of "new politics" for moderate and centre-right voters angry with establishment politicians whom deem Podemos too radical. My impression is that at some point in the near future UPyD and C's could merge or, given the current trend, it's possible that the latter will end absorbing the former.

As for Podemos, I think the Andalusian election is key for them, as well as the result in Madrid. Podemos is still lacking of candidates and the left in Madrid is currently a terrible mess, with the IU broken in several pieces and the PSOE struggling to survive with a new candidate who, on the other hand, I think it's excellent. I don't mean that Ángel Gabilondo is going to achieve a great electoral success (it's nearly impossible, given the pitiful state of Madrid's PSOE), but a man who quotes Kant in public meetings is rather unusual in Spanish politics and he looks so different from our average politicians that I can't help but feeling some kind of empathy. 

[Velasco]

Andalusian election polls.

Deimos, University of Granada.

PSOE 33.4% (39 seats), PP 25.7% (33), Podemos 22.3% (25), C's 7.8% (7), IU 6.1% (5), UPyD 1.5% (-), PA 1.5% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 18-25. Sample size: 1539

Celeste-Tel / La Opinión de Málaga

PSOE 36.7% (48), PP 27.4% (35), Podemos 14.7% (17), IU 7.4% (6), C's 6.1% (3), PA 3.1% (-), UPyD 2.6% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 12-20. Sample size: 2400

IMC / ABC Sevilla

PSOE 37.8% (44-48), PP 30.7% (39-42), Podemos 12% (12-14), C's 5% (3-5), IU 4.7% (3-5), UPyD 2.4% (-), PA 1.1%

Fieldwork: Feb 16-21. Sample size: 1100

General election

Simple Lógica (Gallup partner)

Podemos 29.6%, PP 26.8%, PSOE 17.8%, C's 8.5%, UPyD 3.6%, IU 3.4%, CiU 3%, PNV 1%, Others 6.2%

Filedwork: Feb 2-9. Sample size: 1058

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop15003_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Take a pound of salt.

[Velasco]

Another Andalusian poll. A certain Mr. Toharia, who is the Metroscopia's chief, seems to be in love with Mr. Rivera, the leader of Ciudadanos.

Metroscopia / El País

PSOE 34.6% (40-44), PP 22.7% (27-31), Podemos 16.7% (18-22), C's 11% (8-12), IU 6.8% (5-9), UPyD 2.8% (-), Others 4.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 23-24. Sample size: 1000 (phone)

Murcia (regional election)

CEMOP / La Verdad

PP 39.4% (21-22 seats), PSOE 21.9% (10-11), Podemos 17.5% (8-9), C's 11.4% (3-4), IU 5.8% (1), UPyD 3.1% (-)

Fieldwork:  Feb 2-13. Sample size: 1458

Murcia is a PP stronghold and the ruling conservative party would have a -20.9% swing. If that poll reflects accurately the trend in the Murcia region, then Ciudadanos would be taking nearly all the space between PP and PSOE, while the UPyD might be condemned to dissapear. Murcia was the second best region for UPyD in the EP elections, only behind Madrid. However, I will believe that C's surge when I see it. The regional assembly has 45 seats, so Ciudadanos would have the key in the formation of the government.

General election:

Invymark / La Sexta

PP 27.8%, Podemos 23.6%, PSOE 21.5%, C's 6.4%, UPyD 4%, IU 3.8%, CiU 2.8%, ERC 2.8%, PNV 1.1%, Others 6%

Fieldwork: Feb 26

Note: This is not a poll. This is the prediction that Electomanía (a online group of so-called electoral experts) and its users have made for the Andalucian elections. I think it's relatively spot on.

As you say, that is the average prediction made by a group of poll junkies (I'd say it's 'amateur' instead of 'expert' people and certainly those 'barometers' lack of professional methodology). Sometimes such predictions can be more spotted on than actual polls, and our polling industry is untrusted for good reasons. Anyway, I suspect that political leanings influence people's predictions and the percentage for "others" is way too high (aside the Vox Party and the animal rights PACMA, the rest of forces are too insignificant).

[Velasco]

Shocking Catalan polls. GESOP / El Periódico.

Parliament of Catalonia (135 seats):

CiU 20.1% (31-32), ERC 17.3% (27-28), C's 17.8% (23-24), PP 9.8% (12-13), Podem 9.8% (11-12), PSC 7.9% (10-11), CUP 7.1% (9-10), ICV 6.9% (8-9)

The sample size is small (800) and the poll was conducted between Feb 20 and 26.

CiU and ERC down because the stagnation of the separatist process, while the radical left CUP is on the rise. C's would be the second party in popular vote, but gets less seats than ERC due to malapportionment. Podemos is down from the last GESOP poll and PSC falls to the 6th place.

General election (47 seats):

CiU 17% (10), Podem 20.5% (9), ERC 13.7% (7-8), C's 15.7% (7), PP 11.9% (6), PSC 11.3% (5-6), ICV 3.6% (1), CUP 3.4% (1)

Podemos would be the party with the most votes in Catalonia in a general election and C's would come third, but malapportionment favours again nationalist parties (CiU and ERC). Terrible results for PP and PSOE and ICV-EUiA , reduced to a single seat. The separatist CUP has never contested Spanish elections, and I have no reason to think that the next will be different.

Sample size: 800. Fieldwork: Feb 20-26.

[Velasco]

CIS / Andalusian elections.

PSOE 34.7% (44), PP 25.7% (34), Podemos 19.2% (21-22), IU 6.6% (4-5), C's 6.4% (5), UPyD 2.3% (-), PA 1.2% (-)

Sample size: 3180 (face to face). Fieldwork: Jan 30 - Feb 17

The Parliament of Andalusia has 109 seats (majority= 55).

Direct vote intention (raw data): PSOE 25.5%, Podemos 13.7%, PP 12.8%, IU 3.8%, C's 3-5%,  UPyD 1.7%, PA 0.8%, Others 0.6%, blank 4.7%, null 0.7%, won't vote 11%, don't know 16.7%, don't answer 4.6%

By province.

Almería: PSOE 36.3% (5), PP 25.9% (4), Podemos 14.4% (2), C's 6.6% (1), IU 4.4% (-), UPyD 2.3% (-)

Cádiz: PSOE 29.8% (5), Podemos 25.3% (4), PP 21.8% (4), C's 6.9% (1), IU 6.7% (1), UPyD 3.4% (-), PA 2% (-)

Córdoba: PSOE 35.9% (5), PP 25.9% (4), Podemos 18.3% (2-3), IU 6.1% (0-1), C's 4-9% (-), UPyD 1.8% (-), PA 1.6% (-)

Granada: PSOE 34.4% (5), PP 28.5% (4), Podemos 15.2% (2), IU 6.8% (1), C's 6.5% (1), UPyD 3.2% (-)

Huelva: PSOE 39.4% (5), PP 30.1% (4), Podemos 19.6% (2), IU 5.8% (-), C's 2.7% (-), UPyD 1%

Jaén: PSOE 37.3% (5), PP 31% (4), Podemos 17% (2), IU 5.6% (-), C's 4.8% (-), UPyD 1.4%

Málaga: PSOE 31.6% (6), PP 30.5% (6), Podemos 17.1% (3), IU 6.9% (1), C's 6.7% (1), UPyD 2.4% (-)

Sevilla: PSOE 37.2% ( 8 ), Podemos 21.2% (4), PP 20.2% (4), C's 7.8% (1), IU 7.7% (1), UPyD 2.1% (-), PA 1.9% (-)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3053mar_A.pdf

[Velasco]

It'd be better for them getting 20% of the vote, although any result above 15% would be good given the circumstances.

As for Cádiz, there's a difference between the provincial capital and the rest of the province. As you can see in the 2012 election map that I posted before, PP won in the main curban centres (Jerez, Cádiz and Algeciras), as well as in the Bay of Cádiz municipalities (except Puerto Real, which is an industrial town with a shipbuilding industry in decline due to competence from Asian countries) and the Bay of Algeciras. However, the rural municipalities lean PSOE and there are a couple of IU strongholds (Trebujena). In the November 2011 general election, PP got a strong result in the province (47.1%), but in the 2012 regional election it fell to 40.5% getting less votes than the sum of PSOE and IU (35.6% and 12.7%, respectively). In the 2014 EP elections, PP came second behind PSOE and only got 23.6% (in percentage, it's a half of the support they got in 2011).

As for the the city of Cádiz, it has been a PP stronghold in the last 20 years (Teófila Martínez is the mayoress since 1995), but in the EP elections the conservative party won a weak plurality and it was one of the strongest provincial capitals for Podemos in the country (PP 26%, PSOE 21.8%, Podemos 16.3%, IU 10.9%, UPyD 8.7%). Podemos got 10.7% in the Cádiz province, which was its best provincial result in Andalusia.

I haven't researched in depth why Podemos is strong in Cádiz. A couple of possible factors could be:

a) Cádiz is the Spanish province with the highest unemployment rate; by the end of 2014 it was above 42%.

b) The Podemos candidate (MEP Teresa Rodríguez) is from the Cádiz province.

[Velasco]

Mariano Rajoy picked Cristina Cifuentes and Esperanza Aguirre as candidates for regional premier and mayor of Madrid, respectively. Incumbent Madrid premier Ignacio González has been involved in a series of scandals regarding a penthouse he owns in Estepona (Costa del Sol, Málaga) and premium payments to judges through a private compay called Indra. González denounced a conspiracy against him; people in his entourage pointed to a sector of PP wanting to take him off from the race. Ignacio González has been a loyal squire to regional leader Esperanza Aguirre, as well former regional minister Enrique Granados (who is in prison charged with corruption). However, Aguirre remained silent in the controversy around the incumbent premier, seeking to be appointed by Rajoy as mayoral candidate. In any case, it seems that Rajoy made the decision to replace González some time ago. Despite the poor relationship between the Spanish PM and the Madrid regional leader, the decision to appoint Aguirre for the mayoral race responds to pragmatic reasons: she is adored by the PP conservative base and scores better than others in the polls. On the other hand, Cristina Cifuentes is currently the delegate of the Spanish government in Madrid, is a woman of dialogue and moderate, as well as loyal to Rajoy.

In contrast, Mariano Rajoy has gone for continuity in the Valencia region. Incumbent premier Albert Fabra and incumbent mayor of Valencia Rita Barberá will seek reelection.

On the other hand, IU and C's nominated candidates for the Madrid region. Poet Luis García Montero (born in Granada, 1958) will top the IU list in the regional elections after the defection of Tania Sánchez. The new force created by the latter, joined by Equo and other organisations, is still struggling to find a formula to cooperate with Podemos.

The Andalusian campaign started yesterday. I'll copy the brief profile of the main candidates in the English version of El País newspaper. According to that, those candidates represent a "new generation of leaders".

Susana Díaz (PSOE). In the machine room

Born in Seville in 1974, she became Andalusia’s first woman regional premier when she took over from the embattled José Antonio Griñán in 2013. Díaz received her training at different Socialist Party (PSOE) headquarters where she was close to the party’s political machinery. She has served as a councilor, deputy in Congress, regional lawmaker, senator, and is now head of Spain’s largest region.

As premier, Díaz has tried to fight the corruption that has engulfed Andalusia, which came to a head when a judge began investigating the so-called ERE case, a multi-million fraud probe involving the misuse of a public layoff fund.

She decided not to run for PSOE secretary general last year – a post won by Pedro Sánchez. Her public differences with Sánchez, whom she supported, have now become noticeable. She has said she will not run in the party primaries to select a prime ministerial candidate because she wants to continue as Andalusian regional premier. A lawyer, Díaz is married and now pregnant with her first child.

Juan Manuel Moreno (PP). An impossible challenge

Moreno faces an uphill battle, according to the polls, which predict he will not garner the majority of votes that the Popular Party (PP) took under Javier Arenas in 2012. Then the PP won 50 seats but was five short of an absolute majority in the Andalusian parliament. The Socialists were able to convince the IU to form a partnership government, which remained in place for nearly three years.

Born in Barcelona in 1970 to Andalusian parents, Moreno became the PP leader in the region just a year ago. Before that he served as secretary of state for social services and equality under then-Health Minister Ana Mato.

Antonio Maíllo (IU). A leader with no opposition

Maíllo became United Left (IU) regional coordinator in 2013 following an unusual assembly meeting in which there was no internal bickering nor votes cast against his candidacy. A Córdoba native, he was a political unknown until he became coordinator. He has been with the IU since he was 18 and served as councilor in Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and Aracena (Huelva) – two municipalities where he taught Latin.

Maíllo arrived on the scene shortly before Susana Díaz took over as regional premier but the two did not share the same camaraderie as their predecessors Griñán and previous IU coordinator, Diego Valderas.

Maíllo studied classical philosophy and is the first gay candidate (“that I know of,” he says) to run for regional premier in Andalusia. Besides Latin and Greek, he speaks English and Italian.

Teresa Rodríguez (Podemos). The activist teacher

Podemos was no doubt caught off guard by the announcement of early elections in the region. The formation had no candidate and there were doubts about Rota-native Teresa Rodríguez stepping in. A member of the far-left Anti-Capitalist Left faction of the new political force, she could become the secretary general of Podemos in Andalusia when internal elections are held after the regional race.

She began her political career at 18 when she joined IU, and was on the party’s election slate in 2000. Last year, she was elected euro deputy for Podemos – a post she held for 10 months.

A language and literature teacher, Rodríguez has also been an activist, taking part in protests at the Rota naval base and coming out against the European Constitution.

Juan Marín (Ciudadanos). From business to politics

The most recent of the five to arrive on the political scene, Sanlúcar native Marín says he first got involved in politics in 2007 when a trash strike was in full swing in his home city. “His wife said: ‘Juan, if we don’t do something, we are going to have to move,’” recalls one of his advisors.

After the municipal elections, he formed the Independent Citizens Party of Sanlúcar, based on almost identical ideas to those of Albert Rivera’s Ciudadanos, which he joined in 2011.

After studying labor relations, Marín took over his family jewelry business and is active in local business owners’ associations.

During the 2007 elections, his party won three city council seats and formed a pact with the Socialists that allowed him to serve as deputy mayor of Sanlúcar.

Here, an article on the new emerging force in the Spanish centre-right, stressing the tireless online presence of C's leader Albert Rivera and entitled "How Ciudadanos took on Podemos at their own digital name".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/03/05/inenglish/1425573337_792747.html

Certainly, Podemos has no longer the exclusive of "new politics". On the other hand, the friendliness of media with Ciudadanos is evident. Also, people at PP is starting to worry and launching some clumsy attacks, which the agile and dialectically skilled Rivera has little problem to counteract.

[Velasco]

Albert Rivera: The Charming Naranjito Man.

Some columnist at eldiario.es nicknamed Albert Rivera "the IBEX 35 Prince Charming". The reasons to explain C's meteoric rise are the support from the economic establishment (the employment of liberal economists Luis Garicano and Manuel Conthe would have reassured IBEX 35 companies); the relative cleanliness of C's (despite certain issues concerning some party members) as opposed to corruption in PP ranks; and that PP has not so much hidden vote as some pollsters used to believe (angry and disillusioned people actually went to abstention).

According to a sociologist quoted in the article, in past Catalan elections C's attracted voters swinging between PP and PSC. However, in the rest of Spain is different. There C's appeals to PP voters wanting a clean party, those moderates whom once were supporters of the UCD and CDS.  C's is placed in the centre-right nationwide, even though back in 2006 its Catalan founders defined Ciutadans as a centre-left social liberal force opposed to peripheral nationalism. The strong support that C's is getting from media (ranging from El País to Pedro J Ramírez, I believe) plays a key role and its motivation is that C's is seen as an option to stem the Podemos rise. Quoting C's propaganda, they represent "the sensible change" as opposed to Rivera's sentence "Podemos is vengeance".  

http://www.eldiario.es/zonacritica/Causas-meteorico-despegue-Albert-Rivera_6_363673650.html

Worthy of mention is that PP spokesman Rafael Hernando has been already campaigning for Albert Rivera. When Hernando attacked Ciudadanos by calling it "naranjito" (in allusion to the official mascot of the 1982 World Cup held in Spain), actually he was serving Rivera the reply on a plate. The C's leader reacted immediately, taking a photo with the mascot (see above) and sending via Twitter the #YoSoyNaranjito" hashtag, which soon became in a trending topic worldwide.

Anyway, the Metroscopia poll is exaggerating the trend. I won't believe that C's is tied with PP until I see it. A strong dose of scepticism is needed these days, in order to preserve sanity.

[Velasco]

I doubt that the situation that Rajoy faced in 2008, when he lost an election getting 40% of the vote, was comparable to a  result similar to that poll. Even though PP is a highly disciplined and hierarchical party, I see no way in which Rajoy could survive that catastrophe. I guess that he would quit politics and live comfortably as a Property Registrar. Anyway, I concur with Nanwe in not trusting that pollster in particular. Likely PP is still the first party, although with a low level of support (more or less in the EP election levels, or maybe less) and with Podemos on the heels. In two weeks we'll have the Andalusian election results. I hope they will clarify things a bit, because at this moment we cannot do much more than to speculate pointlessly.

Also should andulacia be its own thread?

Likely it should. Do you prefer a separate thread to post results or something?

[Velasco]

But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.

I only say that falling from absolute majority to a third place must imply necessarily a rebelion among territorial 'barons' and cadres. Anyway you are probably right; in that fictional scenario Rajoy could lead the way by resigning. Mariano should never have left Pontevedra. On the other hand, you gave a good explanation on how PP works internally

Okay, the Cs are quite frequently polling over 10%. What's the deal? How can a regional party be that popular? Are they even running outside Catalonia? Is anti-nationalism their main appeal? I've also heard that they were anti-immigrant, are they benefiting from that? Then again, the person who told me that was a hardcore communist who thinks anything short of open borders is xenophobic, so I legitimately don't know.

The deal is that C's seems to be growing fast at the expense of PP and that the rise of a new emerging force together with Podemos implies a death certificate for the two party system.  Also, you are a bit outdated: Ciudadanos is no longer a regional party. They are expanding quickly through the rest of Spain and they got already remarkable results in Madrid and other places in the 2014 EP elections. As for immigration policies, C's leader Albert Rivera thinks that irregular immigrants should not receive the benefits of our universal healthcare system. In that regard he's in the line of the PP government, which excluded irregulars by a royal legislative decree issued in 2012.

Here's a link in Spanish mentioning some C's proposals:

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/02/15/54e11134ca4741aa038b4574.html

[Velasco]

To summarize recent developments in the conformation of the Podemos candidacies for Madrid, José Manuel López will top the 'official' list and will be the likely regional candidate.  Mr López is an agricultural engineer, expert in religions and worked for Caritas and the CEAR (Spanish Refugee Aid Commission). The number two in the list is lawyer Lorena Ruiz-Huerta, who is a young human rights activist. The candidacy will integrate members of the Convocatoria por Madrid, the platform led by the former IU regional candidate Tania Sánchez, and Equo. In order that discussion "did not focus on persons, but on projects", Tania Sánchez decided to step aside and won't run.

As for the city of Madrid, Podemos ("We Can") and the platform called Ganemos Madrid ("Let's Win Madrid") will run together in the 'instrumental party' called Ahora Madrid ("Now Madrid"). Three lists will compete for the candidacy. The 'official' list (that is to say, the list backed by Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias) will be topped by former judge Manuela Carmena (Madrid, 1944) and includes Rita Maestre (member of the Podemos' national citizen council), Celia Mayer (Ganemos spokeswoman) and Inés Sabanés (Equo, formerly in IU). The second list represents the Podemos members who don't share the strategies of Claro que Podemos ("Of course we can", the Pablo Iglesias' team) and will include people from Ganemos as well. The dissident faction led by Miguel Urbán got remarkable results in the primaries held to elect the Madrid regional "citizen council" (the Podemos' political direction body). The third list will be topped by Mauricio Valiente, who was elected candidate for Mayor of Madrid in the past IU primaries teaming with Tania Sánchez. Unlike Ms. Sánchez, Mr. Valiente is still an IU member. It's uncertain if IU will rally with Ahora Madrid, because of the outright conflict inside IU Madrid.

Interactive map of regional candidates.

http://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-conoce-todos-candidatos-elecciones-autonomicas-2015-20150312124350.html

Regional polls.

Andalusian Parliament election (109 seats):

Sigma Dos / El Mundo

My Word / Cadena SER

PSOE 33.6% (42), PP 22.3%(26-27), Podemos 19.9% (24-25), C's 10.7% (9-10), IU 6.2% (6-7), UPyD 2%, PA 1.4%, others 1.4%, blank votes 2.5%

Celeste-Tel / various Andalusian papers

PSOE 36.9% (49), PP 26.6% (34), Podemos 14% (16), C's 8.4% (5), IU 6.8% (5), PA 2.9%, UPyD 2.5%, others 1.9%

Commentia / Grupo Joly

PSOE 35.9% (41-46), PP 30.7% (36-39), Podemos 19.4% (18-21), C's 5.6% (5-6), IU 4.1% (3)

Catalonia:

CEO / Generalitat de Catalunya

Parliament of Catalonia (135 seats):

CiU 19.5% (31-32), ERC 18.9% (30-31), C's 12.4% (16-17), Podemos 12.2% (16-17), PP 10.2% (13-14), PSC 8.2% (11-12), CUP 7.3% (10-11), ICV-EUiA 5.8% (6-8), 0thers 3.9%, blank votes 1.6%

Congress of Deputies (general election, 47 seats):

Podemos 21.2% (11-12), CiU 18.8% (12), ERC 15.1% (8-9), PP 11.9% (5-6), PSC 10.8% (5-6), C's 7.9% (2-3), CUP 3.9% (1), ICV-EUiA 3.7% (1), others 4.9%, blank votes 1.8%

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=5268&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica+%28BOP%29.+1a+onada+2015

Basque Country (municipal elections):

http://www.electograph.com/2015/03/capitales-vascas-febrero-2015-sondeo.html

[Velasco]

The Andalusian campaign reaches the home run, marked by the duel between the parties that represent the "new" and the "old" politics. The outcome will be decided by undecided voters and the future Andalusian government by post-election pacts, given that polls place the likely winner far from getting a majority. Two emerging forces might have the key in the conformation of the government: Podemos and Ciudadanos. While premier Susana Díaz rejects the possibility of dealing with Podemos, she could find an ally if C's fulfills expectations and gets into the regional parliament. A deal between PSOE and C's seems to be the desired outcome for some people in mainstream media, although the new sensation of the Spanish centre-right could charge a high price to Susana Díaz in exchange for stability.

Susana Díaz has been running a personal, self-oriented campaign. The presence of Pedro Sánchez, the national leader of PSOE, has been reduced to the minimum. Sánchez has attended a single rally in Almería opening for Díaz (he didn't appear in the advertising poster of the event: see pic below) and will attend the final act of the campaign. The relationship between Sánchez and Díaz appears to be cold. Susana Díaz focuses on her 18 month management at the head of the regional government, avoiding mentions to 30 years of uninterrupted PSOE rule and specially to Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán, both former premiers under investigation for the ERE scandal. She emphasizes that there are no accused people in PSOE lists and her commitment against corruption. Her campaign message avoids mentions to PP corruption scandals as well; instead, she focuses on issues like public healthcare, nursery schools or scholarship grants. The targets of her criticism are the PP anti-social policies and Podemos. The Andalusian premier is a folksy woman who knows how to connect with common people. She is in her natural element in rural communities (where lies the PSOE strength, specially among women) and popular neighbourhoods, where she's cheered and congratulated for her pregnancy. Opening her campaign video, she introduces herself: "Hello, I'm Susana, you know me".

In contrast, the rest of candidates have been supported by their national leaders. To counter the low level of knowledge of PP candidate José Manuel Moreno Bonilla, Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy has been actively present in the campaign. The conservative party tries to contain a flow of voters towards other parties, warning the "false promises" of parties which aspire to hold the balance of power (in allusion to C's) and the dangers of "experiments". PP message can be summarized as "the safest option is the devil you know".



Podemos candidate Teresa Rodríguez, on her part, speaks cautiously trying to keep fear away and to avoid controversial issues and mistakes; opponents remain alert, trying to take advantage of the first and to whip out the latter. Teresa Rodríguez asks for "the vote of courage" which goes beyond resignation. Even though she's a long time activist who comes from the Anticapitalist Left, Teresa Rodríguez is a young woman who speaks softly and doesn't create the impression of being a light-headed radical. However, some people see her "constrained". Podemos campaign acts are usually crowded, especially when Pablo Iglesias and other national leaders are attending.

Despite the rise of Podemos is damaging IU, regional candidate Antonio Maíllo doesn't focus his criticism on them aside some mentions to the vagueness of their proposals. Maíllo ramarks that he's clearly a man on the left, the only one who is running in this election. The IU candidate prefers to charge against PP and PSOE. In the tripartite electoral debate held at the regional TV with Susana Díaz and José Manuel Moreno, Maíllo reproached them because their parties are filled with corruption and both were throwing the opponent's scandals to the face of the other. Maíllo is supported in public acts by national candidate Alberto Garzón, who deems a deal with PSOE as highly unlikely due to the break of the coalition government which led to the snap election. IU is fighting for preserving its own space.

On the other hand, the actual candidate of Ciudadanos is not the virtually unknown councilor Juan Marín. It's national leader Albert Rivera who often appears in the campaign affiches and supports his regional candidate in the acts throughout Andalusia. The C's campaign started with a controversy when Rivera talked about giving a fishing rod and teaching Andalusian to fish (that region has a remarkable seafaring tradition). Anyway, Rivera seems to have overcome what some people would have considered a sample of Catalan arrogance. Also, PP spokepersons know how to campaign for him, even without wanting. The delegate of the government in Andalusia dropped a clanger by saying that he doesn't want a Catalan governing Andalusia. Albert Rivera has something in common with the PP candidate: both were born in Barcelona and have family roots in Andalusia.

Meanwhile, UPyD is fighting to survive. The hopes for the future of the party led by Rosa Díez are vanishing while Ciudadanos, the rival party which competes for the same space, seems to be in a poll honeymoon. Díez, who has been supporting the UPyD candidate Martin de la Herrán in Andalusia, says that waters run murky and there's more competence than before, but she assures that her party is solidly established in Spain. As well Ms Díez thinks that there's a clear motivation in some opinion polls, which in her opinion are aimed to direct the vote. Despite she claims having been under a "brutal pressure" and "attacks", she's determined to resist, endure and face up.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/03/15/55048d5e22601d41248b456e.html

[Velasco]

Everything points to a PSOE minority government in Andalusia, if we take into account the last statements of Mariano Rajoy and some of the candidates. The Spanish PM assured on Monday that he will allow to govern the party with the most votes. Rajoy, who is fully committed to the campaign, said in a rally held in Málaga that voting IU, Podemos, C's and UPyD is underpinning PSOE in the regional government. On the other hand, Podemos and C's candidates discarded the option of joining a coalition government. Podemos' Teresa Rodríguez was categorical in saying that she's not going to be in a cabinet presided by Susana Díaz, while C's Juan Marín stated that compromising with PSOE is betraying the illusion of their voters.

For his part, IU candidate is engaging in a fight to recover those potential voters running away to Podemos; both parties are ignoring each other in the campaign. There's some lukewarm optimism among IU membership because last polls don't predict a collapse; Maíllo assures that they will give a surprise in the election day and be decisive in the next regional parliament. Also, UPyD spokeswoman Rosa Díaz is campaigning in Andalusia hunting for undecided. Party volunteers are telephoning voters, as well Ms Díez and the regional candidate. They seek being original by initiatives such as improvising meetings in trams or cleaning the Andalusian Parliament with a wipe (in the pic below, Rosa Díez and Martín de la Herrán in full corruption cleansing).

On the other hand, the crisis in IU Madrid is far from being solved. People at the regional federation (IUCM) decided to run a proper list for the municipal elections, after they called referendum recently to reject the IU's involvement in Ahora Madrid with Podemos and other organisations. Candidate elect Mauricio Valiente has the choice of leaving the party or renouncing to run in the Ahora Madrid primaries. It's a blow for the IU national leadership, which intended to solve the conflict after the Andalusian elections. They fear the repetition of the events which some years ago led to the break of the IU's Basque federation.

[Velasco]

End of campaign, if anybody cares. Seven candidates in the face of the polls. Summary of mistakes and hits.

Susana Díaz (PSOE):

The incumbent premier intends to win broad enough, in order to govern without problems. A presumed lack of stability in the coalition government was the reason gave by Susana Díaz to break the deal with IU; if she gets a bad result, she will be placed in a weak position. On the other hand, if she manages to gain a forceful victory which helps PSOE to avoid disaster at national level, her influence in the party will be unquestionable. Despite she claims that will stay governing Andalusia, Ms Díaz is the preferred leader for many PSOE heads.

- Hits: She had ran a grassroot campaign aimed to recover the typical socialist voters and has a remarkable ability to connect with the man (and the woman) in the street.

- Mistakes: In live television debates, she left a negative impression. Díaz played an anti-dialogue role, neither listening nor keeping the opponents' speaking time.

- Main proposals: Commitment against corruption and creation of an Anti-Fraud Office, lowering taxes, preservation of social services.

Juan Manuel Moreno (PP):

The challenge of the PP candidate is trying to avoid the bad results that polls have been predicting, with losses ranging between 10 and more than 20 seats. PP fears a knock-on effect in the May municipal elections; the conservative majorities in the Andalusian provincial capitals are at stake.

- Hits: Keeping calm in the debates, gaining an impression of reasonability before Susana Díaz.

- Mistakes: Waiting until the campaign to work on his public image, especially when he was a complete unknown for many Andalusians.

. Main proposals: Mariano Rajoy promised to create 1 million of jobs (literally) during the legislative period, as well as re-industrialisation policies and lowering taxes.

Antonio Maíllo (IU):

The IU candidate tries to preserve the IU strength in the Andalusian Parliament, retaining the 12 seats or at least containing losses.

- Hits: Serious campaign focused on proposals, good performance in debates.

- Mistakes: He has performed a complicated dance trying to highlight the positive aspects of the PSOE-IU coalition government while bashing socialists, as well as to make a difference with Podemos without explicit mentions to them.

- Main proposals: Guaranteeing basic supplies, Public Bank and creation of a Bank of Land.

Teresa Rodríguez (Podemos):

Her main challenge is not disappointing the expectations. Polls predict that Podemos will get strongly in the Andalusian Parliament as the third party with no less than 15 seats. After the election, she will seek the post of regional secretary general. Depending on results, this election might be the first step of the possible change that Podemos is promising for the country. If the result doesn't fulfill expectations, it could be considered as a sign of the beginning of Podemos decline.

- Hits: Booking a velodrome in Dos Hermanas (near Seville) for the final campaign rally, which took place tonight with an attendance estimated between 12 and 15 thousand people, the most crowded of the journey. That facility has been an emblematic place for the Andalusian socialists.

- Mistakes: Renouncing to intervene in a live television debate in which the alternative forces were invited. Podemos sent another representative.

- Main proposals: Citizen's rescue establishing an emergency program for people in risk of social exclusion and eviction; limitation of terms; right of revocation at midterm; audit of public accounts; Office of Public Participation in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Juan Marín (Ciudadanos):

Ciudadanos wants to be the party which holds the balance of power in Andalusia, a result unthinkable few months ago.

- Hits: The campaign highlighted the C's label over the low profile of the candidate, with the ubiquitous and good looking Albert Rivera playing the starring role.

- Mistakes: The Rivera's "fishing rod" metaphor at the beginning of the campaign, which sounded arrogant to Andalusian people.

- Main proposals: Local reform merging municipalities below 5,000 people; integrated action plan for families, freelancers and SMEs; administrative rationalisation to prevent squandering.

Martín de la Herrán (UPyD):

The UPyD candidate is the only who ran in 2012. This election might be the last chance for UPyD to get into the regional parliament.

- Hits: Original and suggestive campaign.

- Mistakes: Despite the above mentioned, UPyD has been blurred by Podemos and Ciudadanos.

- Main proposals: Fight against corruption, legislation to prevent budget cuts.

Antonio Jesús Ruiz (PA):

The regionalist Andalusian Party has been unrepresented in the regional parliament since 2008. The PA enters in the 50th year of existence.

- Hits: Not giving up.

- Mistakes: Pretending to be the only ones whom wave the Andalusian flag. On the other hand, advocating for regional patriotism is not enough in the current state of affairs.

Freak Time!!!

The ultraconservative Vox Party broadcasted a campaign video recreating a dystopian islamized Andalusia in the year 2018. An hypothetical (and obviously mean) Podemos-PSOE administration would have expropriated the Mosque of Córdoba and the Giralda of Seville from the hands of the Catholic Church, in order to consecrate them for Muslim worship. Spanish PM Pablo Iglesias (Podemos), representatives from 20 Muslim countries and even Celia Villalobos from the Andalusian PP would be attending a great event at the Córdoba Mosque. One can suppose that the reestablishment of the Cordoba Caliphate would be around corner.

All this nonsense is due to a Podemos proposal to return those historical monuments to public ownership. The Mosque and the Giralda were granted to the Church during the Franco regime and the Bishopric of Córdoba collects a good sum of money by selling tickets to visitors, with the aggravating factor that information leaflets name the monument "Cathedral", which is certainly unhistorical. Given that after the Castilian conquest the Mosque was consecrated to Christian worship, many people calls the monument "Mosque-Cathedral".